Risk of Recurrence After Withdrawal of Anticoagulation in Patients With Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism: External Validation of the Vienna Nomogram and the Dash Prediction Score

Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and critical appraisal

INTRODUCTION

Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding are infrequently used when deciding on anticoagulant treatment duration after venous thromboembolism (VTE) due to concerns about performance and validity. Our aim was to critically appraise these models by systematically summarizing data from derivation and validation studies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

MEDLINE and CENTRAL were searched until November 15th, 2019. Studies on prediction models for recurrence or bleeding after at least 3 months of anticoagulation in adult patients with VTE were included. The PROBAST, ROBINS-I and RoB2 tools were used to assess risk of bias and applicability.

RESULTS

Selection yielded 18 studies evaluating 8 models for recurrence (7 on development; 9 on validation; 1 update). Generally, models for recurrent VTE appeared to perform poorly to moderately in external validation studies (C-statistics 0.39-0.66, one 0.83). However, impact studies show that HERDOO2 and Vienna prediction model may identify patients with unprovoked VTE at low recurrence risk. Sixteen studies evaluating 14 models for anticoagulation-related bleeding were identified (7 on development; 9 on validation). Although some models seemed promising in development studies, their predictive performance was poor to moderate in external validation (C-statistics 0.52-0.71). All but 3 studies were considered at high risk of bias, mainly due to limitations in the statistical analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic models for recurrence and anticoagulation-related bleeding risk often have important methodological limitations and insufficient predictive accuracy. These findings do not support their use in clinical practice to weigh risks of recurrence and bleeding when deciding on continuing anticoagulation after initial treatment of VTE.

From Classical Laboratory Parameters to Novel Biomarkers for the Diagnosis of Venous Thrombosis

Venous thrombosis is a common and potentially fatal disease, because of its high morbidity and mortality, especially in hospitalized patients. To establish the diagnosis of venous thrombosis, in the last years, a multi-modality approach that involves not only imaging modalities but also serology has been evolving. Multiple studies have demonstrated the use of some biomarkers, such as D-dimer, selectins, microparticles or inflammatory cytokines, for the diagnosis and treatment of venous thrombosis, but there is no single biomarker available to exclusively confirm the diagnosis of venous thrombosis. Considering the fact that there are some issues surrounding the management of patients with venous thrombosis and the duration of treatment, recent studies support the idea that these biomarkers may help guide the length of appropriate anticoagulation treatment, by identifying patients at high risk of recurrence. At the same time, biomarkers may help predict thrombus evolution, potentially identifying patients that would benefit from more aggressive therapies. This review focuses on classic and novel biomarkers currently under investigation, discussing their diagnostic performance and potential benefit in guiding the therapy for venous thrombosis.