Systematic review: diagnostic accuracy of clinical decision rules for venous thromboembolism in elderly

Predictive ability of the REMS and HOTEL scoring systems for mortality in geriatric patients with pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is an important cause of mortality and morbidity in the geriatric population. We aimed to compare the ability of the pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI), rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), and hypotension, oxygen saturation, low temperature, electrocardiogram change, and loss of independence (HOTEL) to predict prognosis and intensive care requirement in geriatric patient with PE.

RESULTS

The median age of 132 patients was 77 (71-82) years. PESI was higher in the non-survivor group [132 (113-172)] (P =0.001). The median REMS was 8 (7-10), and it was higher in the non-survivor group [10 (7.5-12.0)] (p = 0.005). The median HOTEL score was 1 (0-2) in the whole cohort and 2 (1-3) in the non-survivor group, indicating significant difference compared to the survivor group (P = 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) values of HOTEL, REMS, and PESI were determined as 0.72, 0.65, and 0.71, respectively. For the prediction of intensive care requirement, the AUC values of HOTEL, REMS, and PESI were 0.76, 0.75, and 0.76, respectively, with no significant difference in pairwise comparisons (PESI vs. REMS: p = 0.520, HOTEL vs. PESI: P = 0.526, REMS vs. HOTEL: P = 0.669, overall test: P = 0.96, DeLong's test). The risk ratios of HOTEL and PESI were parallel to each other [5.31 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.53-11.13) and 5.34 (95% CI: 2.36-12.08), respectively].

CONCLUSION

HOTEL and REMS were as successful as PESI in predicting short-term mortality and intensive care requirement in geriatric patients with PE. These scores are also more practical since they have fewer parameters than PESI.

Deep Venous Thrombosis

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the third most common cardiovascular disorder, affecting up to 5% of the population. VTE commonly manifests as lower-extremity deep venous thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism. Half of these events are associated with a transient risk factor and may be preventable with prophylaxis. Direct oral anticoagulants are effective and safe and carry a lower risk for bleeding than vitamin K antagonists. Many patients with VTE will have a chronic disease requiring long-term anticoagulation. Postthrombotic syndrome affects 25% to 40% of patients with DVT and significantly impacts function and quality of life.

Performance Evaluation of Different d-Dimer Cutoffs in Bedridden Hospitalized Elderly Patients

A rapid and accurate diagnosis of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the elderly individuals represents a dilemma due to nonspecific clinical presentation, confusing laboratory results, and the hazards of radiological examination in this age-group. d-Dimer test is used mainly in combination with non-high clinical pretest probability (PTP) to exclude VTE. d-Dimer testing retains its sensitivity, however, its specificity decreases in the elderly individuals. Raising the cutoff level improves the specificity of the d-dimer test without compromising its sensitivity. The current study aimed to explore the reliability of higher d-dimer cutoff values for the diagnosis of asymptomatic VTE in a population of bedridden hospitalized elderly patients with non-high clinical PTP. This retrospective study included 252 bedridden hospitalized elderly patients (>65 years) who were admitted to the Ain shams University Specialized Hospital with non-high clinical probability and developed later reduced mobility; all underwent quantitation of d-dimer and Doppler examination. Considering the whole population (>65 years), the age-adjusted cutoff achieved the best performance in comparison with the conventional and receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-derived cutoffs. When stratified according to age, the age-adjusted cutoff showed the best performance in the age-group 65-70 and comparable performance with the ROC-derived cutoff in the age-group 71-80, however, its sensitivity compromised in those older than 80 years. In conclusion, it is recommended to use age-adjusted cutoff value of d-dimer together with the clinical probability score in elderly individuals (65-80 years).

[Cost-effectiveness of the deep vein thrombosis diagnosis process in primary care]

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the cost effectiveness of the application of diagnostic algorithms in patients with a first episode of suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in Primary Care compared with systematic referral to specialised centres.

DESIGN

Observational, cross-sectional, analytical study.

LOCATION

Patients from hospital emergency rooms referred from Primary Care to complete clinical evaluation and diagnosis.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 138 patients with symptoms of a first episode of DVT were recruited; 22 were excluded (no Primary Care report, symptoms for more than 30 days, anticoagulant treatment, and previous DVT). Of the 116 patients finally included, 61% women and the mean age was 71 years.

MAIN MEASUREMENTS

Variables from the Wells and Oudega clinical probability scales, D-dimer (portable and hospital), Doppler ultrasound, and direct costs generated by the three algorithms analysed: all patients were referred systematically, referral according to Wells and Oudega scale.

RESULTS

DVT was confirmed in 18.9%. The two clinical probability scales showed a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 85.1 to 100) and a specificity of about 40%. With the application of the scales, one third of all referrals to hospital emergency rooms could have been avoided (P<.001). The diagnostic cost could have been reduced by € 8,620 according to Oudega and € 9,741 according to Wells, per 100 patients visited.

CONCLUSION

The application of diagnostic algorithms when a DVT is suspected could lead to better diagnostic management by physicians, and a more cost effective process.

Rationale and design of three observational, prospective cohort studies including biobanking to evaluate and improve diagnostics, management strategies and risk stratification in venous thromboembolism: the VTEval Project

INTRODUCTION

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) with its two manifestations deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) is a major public health problem. The VTEval Project aims to investigate numerous research questions on diagnosis, clinical management, treatment and prognosis of VTE, which have remained uncertain to date.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The VTEval Project consists of three observational, prospective cohort studies on VTE comprising cohorts of individuals with a clinical suspicion of acute PE (with or without DVT), with a clinical suspicion of acute DVT (without symptomatic PE) and with an incidental diagnosis of VTE (PE or DVT). The VTEval Project expects to enrol a total of approximately 2000 individuals with subsequent active and passive follow-up investigations over a time period of 5 years per participant. Time points for active follow-up investigations are at months 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 after diagnosis (depending on the disease cohort); passive follow-up investigations via registry offices and the cancer registry are performed 48 and 60 months after diagnosis for all participants. Primary short-term outcome is defined by overall mortality (PE-related death and all other causes of death), primary long-term outcome by symptomatic VTE (PE-related death, recurrence of non-fatal PE or DVT). The VTEval Project includes three 'all-comer' studies and involves the standardised acquisition of high-quality data, covering the systematic assessment of VTE including symptoms, risk profile, psychosocial, environmental and lifestyle factors as well as clinical and subclinical disease, and it builds up a large state-of-the-art biorepository containing various materials from serial blood samplings.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The VTEval Project has been approved by the local data safety commissioner and the responsible ethics committee (reference no. 837.320.12 (8421-F)). Trial results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02156401.

Predicting perioperative venous thromboembolism in Japanese gynecological patients

OBJECTIVE

To develop a convenient screening method that can predict perioperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) and identify patients at risk of fatal perioperative pulmonary embolism (PE).

METHODS

Patients hospitalized for gynecological abdominal surgery (n = 183) underwent hematology tests and multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to detect VTE. All statistical analyses were carried out using the SPSS software program (PASWV19.0J).

RESULTS

The following risk factors for VTE were identified by univariate analysis: plasmin-alpha2-plasmin inhibitor complex (PIC), thrombin-antithrombin III complex (TAT), and prolonged immobility (all p<0.001); age, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), malignancy, hypertension, past history of VTE, and hormone therapy (all p<0.01); and hemoglobin, transverse tumor diameter, ovarian disease, and menopause (all p<0.05). Multivariate analysis using these factors revealed that PIC, age, and transverse tumor diameter were significant independent determinants of the risk of VTE. We then calculated the incidence rate of perioperative VTE using PIC and transverse tumor diameter in patient groups stratified by age. In patients aged ≤40 years, PIC ≥1.3 µg/mL and a transverse tumor diameter ≥10 cm identified the high-risk group for VTE with an accuracy of 93.6%. For patients in their 50 s, PIC ≥1.3 µg/mL identified a high risk of VTE with an accuracy of 78.2%. In patients aged ≥60 years, a transverse tumor diameter ≥15 cm (irrespective of PIC) or PIC ≥1.3 µg/mL identified the high-risk group with an accuracy of 82.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose new screening criteria for VTE risk that are based on PIC, transverse tumor diameter, and age. Our findings suggest the usefulness of these criteria for predicting the risk of perioperative VTE and for identifying patients with a high risk of fatal perioperative PE.

A systematic review classifies sources of bias and variation in diagnostic test accuracy studies

OBJECTIVE

To classify the sources of bias and variation and to provide an updated summary of the evidence of the effects of each source of bias and variation.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a systematic review of studies of any design with the main objective of addressing bias or variation in the results of diagnostic accuracy studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS, the Cochrane Methodology Register, and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) from 2001 to October 2011. Citation searches based on three key papers were conducted, and studies from our previous review (search to 2001) were eligible. One reviewer extracted data on the study design, objective, sources of bias and/or variation, and results. A second reviewer checked the extraction.

RESULTS

We summarized the number of studies providing evidence of an effect arising from each source of bias and variation on the estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

We found consistent evidence for the effects of case-control design, observer variability, availability of clinical information, reference standard, partial and differential verification bias, demographic features, and disease prevalence and severity. Effects were generally stronger for sensitivity than for specificity. Evidence for other sources of bias and variation was limited.

Validation of two age dependent D-dimer cut-off values for exclusion of deep vein thrombosis in suspected elderly patients in primary care: retrospective, cross sectional, diagnostic analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the use of age adapted D-dimer cut-off values can be translated to primary care patients who are suspected of deep vein thrombosis.

DESIGN

Retrospective, cross sectional diagnostic study.

SETTING

110 primary care doctors affiliated with three hospitals in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

1374 consecutive patients (936 (68.1%) aged >50 years) with clinically suspected deep vein thrombosis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of patients with D-dimer values below two proposed age adapted cut-off levels (age in years × 10 μg/L in patients aged >50 years, or 750 μg/L in patients aged ≥ 60 years), in whom deep vein thrombosis could be excluded; and the number of false negative results.

RESULTS

Using the Wells score, 647 patients had an unlikely clinical probability of deep vein thrombosis. In these patients (at all ages), deep vein thrombosis could be excluded in 309 (47.8%) using the age dependent cut-off value compared with 272 (42.0%) using the conventional cut-off value of 500 μg/L (increase 5.7%, 95% confidence interval 4.1% to 7.8%). This exclusion rate resulted in 0.5% and 0.3% false negative cases, respectively (increase 0.2%, 0.004% to 8.6%).The increase in exclusion rate by using the age dependent cut-off value was highest in the oldest patients. In patients older than 80 years, deep vein thrombosis could be safely excluded in 22 (35.5%) patients using the age dependent cut-off value compared with 13 (21.0%) using the conventional cut-off value (increase 14.5%, 6.8% to 25.8%). Compared with the age dependent cut-off value, the cut-off value of 750 μg/L had a similar exclusion rate (307 (47.4%) patients) and false negative rate (0.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Combined with a low clinical probability of deep vein thrombosis, use of the age dependent D-dimer cut-off value for patients older than 50 years or the cut-off value of 750 μg/L for patients aged 60 years and older resulted in a considerable increase in the proportion of patients in primary care in whom deep vein thrombosis could be safely excluded, compared with the conventional cut-off value of 500 μg/L.