Abstract
BACKGROUND
Emergency departments (EDs) play an important role in health systems since they are the front line for patients with emergency medical conditions who frequently require diagnostic tests and timely treatment.
OBJECTIVE
To improve decision-making and accelerate processes in EDs, this study proposes predictive models for classifying patients according to whether or not they are likely to require a diagnostic test based on referral diagnosis, age, gender, triage category and type of arrival.
METHOD
Retrospective data were categorised into four output patient groups: not requiring any diagnostic test (group A); requiring a radiology test (group B); requiring a laboratory test (group C); requiring both tests (group D). Multivariable logistic regression models were used, with the outcome classifications represented as a series of binary variables: test (1) or no test (0); in the case of group A, no test (1) or test (0).
RESULTS
For all models, age, triage category, type of arrival and referral diagnosis were significant predictors whereas gender was not. The main referral diagnosis with high model coefficients varied by designed output groups (groups A, B, C and D). The overall accuracies of the logistic regression models for groups A, B, C and D were, respectively, 74.11%, 73.07%, 82.47% and 85.79%. Specificity metrics were higher than the sensitivities for groups B, C and D, meaning that these models were better able to predict negative outcomes.
IMPLICATIONS
These results provide guidance for ED triage staff, researchers and practitioners in making rapid decisions regarding patients' diagnostic test requirements based on specified variables in the predictive models. This is critical in ED operations planning as it potentially decreases waiting times, while increasing patient satisfaction and operational performance.
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