A novel method for predicting the progression rate of ALS disease based on automatic generation of probabilistic causal chains

Broadcasters, receivers, functional groups of metabolites, and the link to heart failure by revealing metabolomic network connectivity

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Blood-based small molecule metabolites offer easy accessibility and hold significant potential for insights into health processes, the impact of lifestyle, and genetic variation on disease, enabling precise risk prevention. In a prospective study with records of heart failure (HF) incidence, we present metabolite profiling data from individuals without HF at baseline.

METHODS

We uncovered the interconnectivity of metabolites using data-driven and causal networks augmented with polygenic factors. Exploring the networks, we identified metabolite broadcasters, receivers, mediators, and subnetworks corresponding to functional classes of metabolites, and provided insights into the link between metabolomic architecture and regulation in health. We incorporated the network structure into the identification of metabolites associated with HF to control the effect of confounding metabolites.

RESULTS

We identified metabolites associated with higher and lower risk of HF incidence, such as glycine, ureidopropionic and glycocholic acids, and LPC 18:2. These associations were not confounded by the other metabolites due to uncovering the connectivity among metabolites and adjusting each association for the confounding metabolites. Examples of our findings include the direct influence of asparagine on glycine, both of which were inversely associated with HF. These two metabolites were influenced by polygenic factors and only essential amino acids, which are not synthesized in the human body and are obtained directly from the diet.

CONCLUSION

Metabolites may play a critical role in linking genetic background and lifestyle factors to HF incidence. Revealing the underlying connectivity of metabolites associated with HF strengthens the findings and facilitates studying complex conditions like HF.

Structural causal model with expert augmented knowledge to estimate the effect of oxygen therapy on mortality in the ICU

Recent advances in causal inference techniques, more specifically, in the theory of structural causal models, provide the framework for identifying causal effects from observational data in cases where the causal graph is identifiable, i.e., the data generation mechanism can be recovered from the joint distribution. However, no such studies have been performed to demonstrate this concept with a clinical example. We present a complete framework to estimate the causal effects from observational data by augmenting expert knowledge in the model development phase and with a practical clinical application. Our clinical application entails a timely and essential research question, the effect of oxygen therapy intervention in the intensive care unit (ICU). The result of this project is helpful in a variety of disease conditions, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) patients in the ICU. We used data from the MIMIC-III database, a widely used health care database in the machine learning community with 58,976 admissions from an ICU in Boston, MA, to estimate the oxygen therapy effect on morality. We also identified the model's covariate-specific effect on oxygen therapy for more personalized intervention.

Causal associations of genetic factors with clinical progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Recent advances in the genetic causes of ALS reveals that about 10% of ALS patients have a genetic origin and that more than 30 genes are likely to contribute to this disease. However, four genes are more frequently associated with ALS: C9ORF72, TARDBP, SOD1, and FUS. The relationship between genetic factors and ALS progression rate is not clear. In this study, we carried out a causal analysis of ALS disease with a genetics perspective in order to assess the contribution of the four mentioned genes to the progression rate of ALS.

METHODS

In this work, we applied a novel causal learning model to the CRESLA dataset which is a longitudinal clinical dataset of ALS patients including genetic information of such patients. This study aims to discover the relationship between four mentioned genes and ALS progression rate from a causation perspective using machine learning and probabilistic methods.

RESULTS

The results indicate a meaningful association between genetic factors and ALS progression rate with causality viewpoint. Our findings revealed that causal relationships between ALSFRS-R items associated with bulbar regions have the strongest association with genetic factors, especially C9ORF72; and other three genes have the greatest contribution to the respiratory ALSFRS-R items with a causation point of view.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings revealed that genetic factors have a significant causal effect on the rate of ALS progression. Since C9ORF72 patients have higher proportion compared to those carrying other three gene mutations in the CRESLA cohort, we need a large multi-centric study to better analyze SOD1, TARDBP and FUS contribution to the ALS clinical progression. We conclude that causal associations between ALSFRS-R clinical factors is a suitable predictor for designing a prognostic model of ALS.

From classical mendelian randomization to causal networks for systematic integration of multi-omics

The number of studies with information at multiple biological levels of granularity, such as genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, is increasing each year, and a biomedical questaion is how to systematically integrate these data to discover new biological mechanisms that have the potential to elucidate the processes of health and disease. Causal frameworks, such as Mendelian randomization (MR), provide a foundation to begin integrating data for new biological discoveries. Despite the growing number of MR applications in a wide variety of biomedical studies, there are few approaches for the systematic analysis of omic data. The large number and diverse types of molecular components involved in complex diseases interact through complex networks, and classical MR approaches targeting individual components do not consider the underlying relationships. In contrast, causal network models established in the principles of MR offer significant improvements to the classical MR framework for understanding omic data. Integration of these mostly distinct branches of statistics is a recent development, and we here review the current progress. To set the stage for causal network models, we review some recent progress in the classical MR framework. We then explain how to transition from the classical MR framework to causal networks. We discuss the identification of causal networks and evaluate the underlying assumptions. We also introduce some tests for sensitivity analysis and stability assessment of causal networks. We then review practical details to perform real data analysis and identify causal networks and highlight some of the utility of causal networks. The utilities with validated novel findings reveal the full potential of causal networks as a systems approach that will become necessary to integrate large-scale omic data.