An improved grey model optimized by multi-objective ant lion optimization algorithm for annual electricity consumption forecasting

Forecasting the renewable energy consumption of Australia by a novel grey model with conformable fractional opposite-direction accumulation

The accurate prediction of renewable energy consumption (REC) is of great significance to ensure energy security, reduce dependence on fossil energy, and promote sustainable economic and social development. In this paper, a novel grey model with conformable fractional opposite-direction accumulation (CFOA), abbreviated as the CFOGM (1,1) model, is proposed to forecast REC in Australia. The new model is discussed in detail with a new CFOA operation and the GM (1,1) model and can take full advantage of the information carried by the original data. The CFOGM (1,1) model has lower modeling error and better fitting and forecasting accuracy than other grey, Holt, and ARM models and can better capture the change trend of REC and achieve accurate prediction. The forecasting results present that the REC in Australia is 497-581 petajoules in 2021, 596-728 petajoules in 2022, and 715-912 petajoules in 2023, indicating that the REC in Australia is still accelerating.

Short-term load forecasting system based on sliding fuzzy granulation and equilibrium optimizer

Short-term electricity load forecasting is critical and challenging for scheduling operations and production planning in modern power management systems due to stochastic characteristics of electricity load data. Current forecasting models mainly focus on adapting to various load data to improve the accuracy of the forecasting. However, these models ignore the noise and nonstationarity of the load data, resulting in forecasting uncertainty. To address this issue, a short-term load forecasting system is proposed by combining a modified information processing technique, an advanced meta-heuristics algorithm and deep neural networks. The information processing technique utilizes a sliding fuzzy granulation method to remove noise and obtain uncertainty information from load data. Deep neural networks can capture the nonlinear characteristics of load data to obtain forecasting performance gains due to the powerful mapping capability. A novel meta-heuristics algorithm is used to optimize the weighting coefficients to reduce the contingency and improve the stability of the forecasting. Both point forecasting and interval forecasting are utilized for comprehensive forecasting evaluation of future electricity load. Several experiments demonstrate the superiority, effectiveness and stability of the proposed system by comprehensively considering multiple evaluation metrics.

Point and interval prediction of crude oil futures prices based on chaos theory and multiobjective slime mold algorithm

Crude oil is the most important energy source in the world, and fluctuations in oil prices can significantly influence investors, companies, and governments. However, crude oil prices have numerous characteristics, including randomness, sudden structural changes, intrinsic nonlinearity, volatility, and chaotic nature. This makes the accurate forecasting of crude oil prices a difficult and challenging task. In this paper, a hybrid prediction model for crude oil futures prices is proposed, the accuracy and robustness of which are demonstrated via controlled experiments and sensitivity analysis. This study uses a new data denoising method for data processing to improve the accuracy and stability of the predictions of crude oil prices. Furthermore, the chaotic time-series prediction method, shallow neural networks, linear model prediction methods, and deep learning methods are adopted as submodels. The results of interval forecasts with narrow widths and high prediction accuracies are derived by introducing a confidence interval adjustment coefficient. The results of the simulation experiments indicate that the proposed hybrid prediction model exhibits higher accuracy and efficiency, as well as better robustness of the forecasting than the control models. In summary, the proposed forecasting framework can derive accurate point and interval forecasts and provide a valuable reference for the price forecasting of crude oil futures.

A Mahalanobis Surrogate-Assisted Ant Lion Optimization and Its Application in 3D Coverage of Wireless Sensor Networks

Metaheuristic algorithms are widely employed in modern engineering applications because they do not need to have the ability to study the objective function’s features. However, these algorithms may spend minutes to hours or even days to acquire one solution. This paper presents a novel efficient Mahalanobis sampling surrogate model assisting Ant Lion optimization algorithm to address this problem. For expensive calculation problems, the optimization effect goes even further by using MSAALO. This model includes three surrogate models: the global model, Mahalanobis sampling surrogate model, and local surrogate model. Mahalanobis distance can also exclude the interference correlations of variables. In the Mahalanobis distance sampling model, the distance between each ant and the others could be calculated. Additionally, the algorithm sorts the average length of all ants. Then, the algorithm selects some samples to train the model from these Mahalanobis distance samples. Seven benchmark functions with various characteristics are chosen to testify to the effectiveness of this algorithm. The validation results of seven benchmark functions demonstrate that the algorithm is more competitive than other algorithms. The simulation results based on different radii and nodes show that MSAALO improves the average coverage by 2.122% and 1.718%, respectively.

Research on physical health early warning based on GM(1,1)

At present, hundreds of millions of Chinese people face increasingly serious health risks, and health checks have undoubtedly played a significant role in finding health risks. However, the current health check in China mainly judges the quality of physical functions by a single index value without dynamic analysis of the changing trends of the index, which may lead to unreasonable diagnostic conclusions. In this paper, the data characteristics of physical indicators are systematically analyzed, and grey system models dedicated to data with the characteristics are applied to simulate and predict the changing trends of body indicators. On this basis, possible pathological changes in body organs were identified. Specifically, this paper analyses the state of human kidney functions by grey prediction models. The results showed that even when the renal function index (serum creatinine) is within the normal range, the human renal function might be abnormal. The grey model analysis of the change trends of serum creatinine can predict the potential health hazards of renal functions.

Using Harris hawk optimization towards support vector regression to ozone prediction

As an area experiencing air pollution, especially ozone concentrations that often exceed the threshold or are unhealthy, JABODETABEK (Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi) seeks to prevent and control pollution as well as restore air quality. Therefore, this study aims to build a predictive model of ozone concentration using Harris hawks optimization-support vector regression (HHO-SVR) in 14 sub-districts in JABODETABEK. This goal is achieved by collecting data on ozone concentration as a response variable and meteorological factors as predictor variables from the website that provides the data. Other predictor variables such as time and significant lag detected with partial autocorrelation function of ozone concentration were also used. Then the variables will be selected using the recursive feature elimination-support vector regression (RFE-SVR) to obtain a significant predictor variable that affects the ozone concentration. After that, the prediction model will be built using the HHO-SVR method, support vector regression (SVR) whose parameter values are optimized with the Harris hawks optimization (HHO) algorithm. When the model has been formed, several evaluation metrics used to determine the best model include mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Coefficient of Determination (R²), Variance Ratio (VR), and Diebold-Mariano test. The results of this study indicate that lag 1, lag 2, air temperature, humidity, and UV index are significant predictor variables of the RFE-SVR results for most sub-districts. In general, the HHO process takes longer than other metaheuristic algorithms. On average, 7 of the 14 sub-districts using the HHO-SVR model yielded the best predictions with MAE below 10, RMSE and MAPE below 20, R² around 0.97, and VR around 0.98. Then, the results of the Diebold-Mariano test also show that the accuracy of the prediction results and the stability of the performance of the HHO-SVR model is better, especially for the Ciputat and South Bekasi sub-districts. This shows that the two sub-districts are very suitable to use HHO-SVR in predicting ozone concentrations.

Fuzzy grey forecasting model optimized by moth-flame optimization algorithm for short time electricity consumption

It is significant that the forecasting models give the closest result to the true value. Forecasting models are widespread in the literature. The grey model gives successful results with limited data. The existing Triangular Fuzzy Grey Model (TFGM (1,1)) in the literature is very useful in that it gives the maximum, minimum and average value directly in the data. A novel combined forecasting model named, Moth Flame Optimization Algorithm optimization of Triangular Fuzzy Grey Model, MFO-TFGM (1,1), is presented in this study. The existing TFGM (1,1) model parameters are optimized by a new nature- inspired heuristic algorithm named Moth-Flame Optimization algorithm which is inspired by the moths flying path. Unlike the studies in the literature, in order to improve the forecasting accuracy, six parameters (λL, λM, λR, α, β and γ) were optimized. After the steps of the model is presented, a forecasting implementation has been made with the proposed model. Turkey’s hourly electricity consumption data is utilized to show the success of the prediction model. Prediction results of proposed model is compared with TFGM (1,1). MFO-TFGM (1,1) performs higher forecasting accuracy.

A novel assessment and forecasting system for traffic accident economic loss caused by air pollution

Air pollution greatly reduces the visibility of the air, leading to frequent traffic accidents (TA), and the resulting economic losses cannot be ignored. In order to better control and mitigate the traffic accident economic losses of air pollution, this paper proposes a novel assessment and forecasting system for TA economic loss of air pollution, which contains assessment module and forecasting module. In the assessment module, a reasonable assessment of TA economic loss is provided which also analyzes the efficiency of air pollution control based on data envelope analysis directional distance function. In the forecasting module, this system develops a rolling nonlinear optimized initial self-adapting grey model based on multi-objective optimization algorithm to forecast the TA economic loss of air pollution. The results from the proposed system indicate that the proposed system has outstanding performance which can provide great information assistant for a decision-maker.

A Novel Framework for Forecasting, Evaluation and Early-Warning for the Influence of PM10 on Public Health

PM2.5 has attracted widespread attention since the public has become aware of it, while attention to PM10 has started to wane. Considering the significance of PM10, this study takes PM10 as the research object and raises a significant question: when will the influence of PM10 on public health end? To answer the abovementioned question, two promising research areas, i.e., air pollution forecasting and health effects analysis, are employed, and a novel hybrid framework is developed in this study, which consists of one effective model and one evaluation model. More specifically, this study first introduces one advanced optimization algorithm and cycle prediction theory into the grey forecasting model to develop an effective model for multistep forecasting of PM10, which can achieve reasonable forecasting of PM10. Then, an evaluation model is designed to evaluate the health effects and economic losses caused by PM10. Considering the significance of providing the future impact of PM10 on public health, we extend our forecasting results to evaluate future changes in health effects and economic losses based on our proposed health economic losses evaluation model. Accordingly, policymakers can adjust current air pollution prevention plans and formulate new plans according to the results of forecasting, evaluation and early-warning. Empirical research shows that the developed framework is applicable in China and may become a promising technique to enrich the current research and meet the requirements of air quality management and haze governance.

Forecasting fuel combustion-related CO2 emissions by a novel continuous fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with grey wolf optimizer

Foresight of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion is essential for policy-makers to identify ready targets for effective reduction plans and to further improve energy policies and plans. A new method for forecasting the future development of China's CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion is proposed in this paper by using grey forecasting theory. Although the existing fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (denoted as FNGBM(1,1)) has been theoretically proven to enhance the adaptability to diverse sequences, its fixed integer-order differential derivative still impairs the performance to some extent. To this end, a varying-order differential derivative is introduced into the existing differential equation to enable a more flexible structure, thus improving the prediction ability of FNGBM(1,1). Specifically, because of the advantages of conformable fractional accumulation, the traditional differential derivative is first replaced by the conformable fractional differential derivative. As a consequence, the continuous conformable fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (hereinafter referred to as CCFNGBM(1,1)) is proposed. To further increase the validity of the model, a metaheuristic algorithm, namely Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), is then applied to search for the optimal emerging coefficients for the proposed model. Two real examples and China's CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion are considered to verify the effectiveness of the newly proposed model, the experimental results show that the newly proposed model outperforms other benchmark models in terms of forecasting accuracy. The proposed model is finally employed to forecast the future China's CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion by 2023, accounting for 10,039.80 million tons. Based on the forecasts, several policy suggestions are provided to curb CO₂ emissions.

A PSO algorithm-based seasonal nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with fractional order accumulation for forecasting quarterly hydropower generation

The hydropower plays a key role in electricity system owing to its renewability and largest share of clean electricity generation that promotes sustainable development of national economy. Developing a proper forecasting model for the quarterly hydropower generation is crucial for associated energy sectors, which could assist policymakers in adjusting corresponding schemes for facing with sustained demands. For this purpose, this paper presents a fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (abbreviated as FANGBM(1,1)) coupled seasonal factor and Particular Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, namely PSO algorithm-based FASNGBM(1,1) model. In the proposed method, the moving average method that eliminates the seasonal fluctuations is introduced into FANGBM(1,1), then in which the structure parameters of FASNGBM(1,1) are determined by PSO. Based on hydropower generation of China from the first quarter of 2011 to the final quarter of 2018 (2011Q1-2018Q4), the numerical results show that the proposed model has a better performance than that of other benchmark models. Eventually, the quarterly hydropower generation of China from 2019 to 2020 are forecasted by the proposed model, according to results, the hydropower generation of China will reach 11287.14 × 108 Kwh in 2020.

A Systematic Review of Statistical and Machine Learning Methods for Electrical Power Forecasting with Reported MAPE Score

Electric power forecasting plays a substantial role in the administration and balance of current power systems. For this reason, accurate predictions of service demands are needed to develop better programming for the generation and distribution of power and to reduce the risk of vulnerabilities in the integration of an electric power system. For the purposes of the current study, a systematic literature review was applied to identify the type of model that has the highest propensity to show precision in the context of electric power forecasting. The state-of-the-art model in accurate electric power forecasting was determined from the results reported in 257 accuracy tests from five geographic regions. Two classes of forecasting models were compared: classical statistical or mathematical (MSC) and machine learning (ML) models. Furthermore, the use of hybrid models that have made significant contributions to electric power forecasting is identified, and a case of study is applied to demonstrate its good performance when compared with traditional models. Among our main findings, we conclude that forecasting errors are minimized by reducing the time horizon, that ML models that consider various sources of exogenous variability tend to have better forecast accuracy, and finally, that the accuracy of the forecasting models has significantly increased over the last five years.

Research on residual GM optimization based on PEMEA-BP correction

With the advantages of small samples and high accuracy, Grey Model (GM) still has two major problems need to be addressed, high input data requirements and large margin of error. Hence, this paper proposes an algorithm based on Populational Entropy Based Mind Evolutionary Algorithm-Error Back Propagation Training Artificial Neural Algorithm to modify GM residual tail, which will not only keep the advantages of GM, but also expand its scope of use to various non-linear and even multidimensional objects. Meanwhile, it can avoid defects of other algorithms, such as slow convergence and easy to fall into the local minimum. In small samples data experiments, judging from SSE, MAE, MSE, MAPE, MRE and other indicators, this new algorithm has significant advantage over GM, BP algorithm and combined genetic algorithm in terms of simulation accuracy and convergence speed.

Suspended sediment load prediction using artificial neural network and ant lion optimization algorithm

Suspended sediment load (SSL) estimation is a required exercise in water resource management. This article proposes the use of hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models, for the prediction of SSL, based on previous SSL values. Different input scenarios of daily SSL were used to evaluate the capacity of the ANN-ant lion optimization (ALO), ANN-bat algorithm (BA) and ANN-particle swarm optimization (PSO). The Goorganrood basin in Iran was selected for this study. First, the lagged SSL data were used as the inputs to the models. Next, the rainfall and temperature data were used. Optimization algorithms were used to fine-tune the parameters of the ANN model. Three statistical indexes were used to evaluate the accuracy of the models: the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). An uncertainty analysis of the predicting models was performed to evaluate the capability of the hybrid ANN models. A comparison of models indicated that the ANN-ALO improved the RMSE accuracy of the ANN-BA and ANN-PSO models by 18% and 26%, respectively. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it can be surmised that the ANN-ALO has an acceptable degree of uncertainty in predicting daily SSL. Generally, the results indicate that the ANN-ALO is applicable for a variety of water resource management operations.

A Hybrid Double Forecasting System of Short Term Power Load Based on Swarm Intelligence and Nonlinear Integration Mechanism

Accurate and reliable power load forecasting not only takes an important place in management and steady running of smart grid, but also has environmental benefits and economic dividends. Accurate load point forecasting can provide a guarantee for the daily operation of the power grid, and effective interval forecasting can further quantify the uncertainty of power load on this basis to provide dependable and precise load information. However, most of the previous work focuses on the deterministic point prediction of power load and rarely considers the interval prediction of power load, which makes the prediction of power load not comprehensive. In this study, a new double hybrid load forecasting system including point forecasting module and interval forecasting module is developed, which can make up for the shortcomings of incomplete analysis for the existing research. The point forecasting module adopts a nonlinear integration mechanism based on Back Propagation (BP) network optimized by Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Decomposition (MOEA/D) to improve the accuracy of point prediction. A fuzzy clustering interval prediction method based on different data feature classification is successfully proposed which provides an effective tool for load uncertainty analysis. The experiment results show that the system not only has a good effect in accurately predicting power load, but also can analyze the uncertainty of the power load, which can be used as an effective technology of power system planning.

An innovative hybrid model based on outlier detection and correction algorithm and heuristic intelligent optimization algorithm for daily air quality index forecasting

Air pollution forecasting plays an important role in helping reduce air pollutant emission and guiding people's daily activities and warning the public in advance. Nevertheless, previous articles still have many shortcomings, such as ignoring the importance of outlier point detection and correction of original time series, and random initial parameters of models, and so on. A new hybrid model using outlier detection and correction algorithm and heuristic intelligent optimization algorithm is proposed in this study to address the above mentioned problems. First, data preprocessing algorithms are conducted to detect and correct outliers, excavate the main characteristics of the original time series; second, a widely used heuristic intelligent optimization algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters of extreme learning machine to obtain the forecasting results of each subseries with improvement in accuracy; finally, experimental results and analysis show that the presented hybrid model provides accurate prediction, outperforming other comparison models, which emphasize the importance of outlier point detection and correction and optimization parameters of models, it also give a new feasible method for air pollution prediction, and contribute to make effective plans for air pollutant emissions.

Forecasting manufacturing industrial natural gas consumption of China using a novel time-delayed fractional grey model with multiple fractional order

Improving the proportion of natural gas consumption of the manufacturing industry would make significant contributions to the low-carbon and sustainable development of China, which is one of the largest manufacturers in the world. However, it is very difficult to catch the trend of natural gas consumption of the concerning manufacturing industry as not enough trustable data can be collected. To fill this gap, a novel time-delayed fractional grey model is developed to forecast the natural gas consumption concerning time-delayed effect. Theoretical analysis shows it has more general formulation, unbiasedness and higher flexibility than the existing similar model. Being optimized by the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm, the proposed model presents higher accuracy in four validation cases. Finally, it is used to forecast the natural gas consumption of the manufacturing industry of China, and the results show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the other seven existing grey models.

Integrated Forecasting Method for Wind Energy Management: A Case Study in China

Wind speed forecasting helps to increase the efficacy of wind farms and prompts the comparative superiority of wind energy in the global electricity system. Many wind speed forecasting theories have been widely applied to forecast wind speed, which is nonlinear, and unstable. Current forecasting strategies can be applied to various wind speed time series. However, some models neglect the prerequisite of data preprocessing and the objective of simultaneously optimizing accuracy and stability, which results in poor forecast. In this research, we developed a combined wind speed forecasting strategy that includes several components: data pretreatment, optimization, forecasting, and assessment. The developed system remedies some deficiencies in traditional single models and markedly enhances wind speed forecasting performance. To evaluate the performance of this combined strategy, 10-min wind speed sequences gathered from large wind farms in Shandong province in China were adopted as a case study. The simulation results show that the forecasting ability of our proposed combined strategy surpasses the other selected comparable models to some extent. Thus, the model can provide reliable support for wind power generation scheduling.

Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network Combined with Fuzzy Time Series for Energy Forecasting

In recent years, although deep learning algorithms have been widely applied to various fields, ranging from translation to time series forecasting, researchers paid limited attention to modelling parameter optimization and the combination of the fuzzy time series. In this paper, a novel hybrid forecasting system, named CFML (complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD)-fuzzy time series (FTS)-multi-objective grey wolf optimizer (MOGWO)-long short-term memory (LSTM)), is proposed and tested. This model is based on the LSTM model with parameters optimized by MOGWO, before which a fuzzy time series method involving the LEM2 (learning from examples module version two) algorithm is adopted to generate the final input data of the optimized LSTM model. In addition, the CEEMD algorithm is also used to de-noise and decompose the raw data. The CFML model successfully overcomes the nonstationary and irregular features of wind speed data and electrical power load series. Several experimental results covering four wind speed datasets and two electrical power load datasets indicate that our hybrid forecasting system achieves average improvements of 49% and 70% in wind speed and electrical power load, respectively, under the metric MAPE (mean absolute percentage error).

A combined forecasting structure based on the L1 norm: Application to the air quality

Air pollution is very harmful to the industrial production and public health. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the air pollution and release air quality levels to provide guidance for public production and life. In most previous studies, pollutant data were directly used for predictions, which are rarely based on the structural characteristics of the data itself. Therefore, a novel combined forecasting structure based on the L₁ norm was designed, aiming at pollution contaminant monitoring and analysis. It comprises analysis, forecast, and evaluation. Firstly, the original data are decomposed into several components. Subsequently, each component is expanded into a matrix time series by phase space reconstruction. The forecast module is then used to carry out the weighted combination of the prediction results of the three models based on the L₁ norm to determine the final prediction result and the process parameters are optimized using the multi-tracker optimization algorithm. Moreover, comprehensive fuzzy evaluation was applied to qualitatively analyze the air quality. The daily pollution sources in three cities in China are taken as examples to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the established combined forecasting structure. The results show that the architecture has a great application potential in the field of air quality prediction.

Forecasting China’s Renewable Energy Terminal Power Consumption Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and an Improved Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by a Bacterial Foraging Algorithm

The energy consumption pattern dominated by traditional fossil energy has led to global energy resource constraints and the deterioration of the ecological environment. These challenges have become a major issue all over the world. At present, the Chinese government aims to significantly reduce the fossil energy consumption contribution in the terminal energy consumption. The development of renewable energy in the terminal energy and energy conversion links has significantly increased the proportion of clean low-carbon energy. In order to accurately get the proportion of renewable energy terminal power consumption, firstly, this paper selects a primary influencing-factors set including the gross GDP, fixed investment in renewable energy industry, total length of cross-provincial and cross-regional high-voltage transmission lines, etc. as influencing factors of China’s electricity consumption fraction produced by renewable energy based on a multitude of papers. Secondly, from the perspective of signal decomposition, the data inevitably has a lot of interference and noise. This paper uses the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm to reduce the degree of signal distortion and decomposes the signal into natural modes including several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual term (Res); afterwards, a new extreme learning machine (ELM) forecasting model optimized by an Inverse Square Root Linear Units (ISRLU) activation function is proposed, and the ISRLU function is used to replace the implicit layer activation function in the original ELM algorithm. Then, a new bacterial foraging algorithm (BFOA) is applied to optimize the parameters of the optimized ELM forecasting model. After multiple learning and training operations, the optimal parameters are obtained. Finally, we superimpose the output of each IMF and Res training task to get the amount of China’s power consumption produced by renewable energy. Some statistical indicators including root mean squard error (RMSE) are applied to compare the accuracy of several intelligent machine forecasting algorithms. We prove that the proposed forecasting model has higher prediction accuracy and achieves faster training speed by an empirical analysis. Finally, the proposed combined forecasting algorithm is applied to predict China’s renewable energy terminal power consumption from 2018 to 2030. According to the forecasting results, it is found that China’s renewable energy terminal power consumption shows a gradual growth trend, and will exceeded 3300 billion kWh in 2030, which will represent a renewable energy terminal power ratio of about 38% in 2030.

A New GM(1,1) Model Based on Cubic Monotonicity-Preserving Interpolation Spline

In the classical GM(1,1) model, an accumulated generating operation is made on the original non-negative sequence to obtain a monotone increasing 1-AGO sequence, and the forecasting model is established based on the 1-AGO sequence. A great number of scholars have improved the accuracy of grey model prediction through better developed background value and the equation for the time response. In this work, we reconstruct the background value based on a new developed monotonicity-preserving piecewise cubic interpolations spline, and thereby establish a new GM(1,1) model. Numerical examples show that the new GM(1,1) model has better prediction quality of data than the original GM(1,1) model and improves the precision of prediction in practice.

A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network

Given the rapid development and wide application of wind energy, reliable and stable wind speed forecasting is of great significance in keeping the stability and security of wind power systems. However, accurate wind speed forecasting remains a great challenge due to its inherent randomness and intermittency. Most previous researches merely devote to improving the forecasting accuracy or stability while ignoring the equal significance of improving the two aspects in application. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting system containing the modules of a modified data preprocessing, multi-objective optimization, forecasting, and evaluation to achieve the wind speed forecasting with high precision and stability. The modified data preprocessing method can obtain a smoother input by decomposing and reconstructing the original wind speed series in the module of data preprocessing. Further, echo state network optimized by a multi-objective optimization algorithm is developed as a predictor in the forecasting module. Finally, eight datasets with different features are used to validate the performance of the proposed system using the evaluation module. The mean absolute percentage errors of the proposed system are 3.1490%, 3.0051%, 3.0618%, and 2.6180% in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Moreover, the interval prediction is complemented to quantitatively characterize the uncertainty as developing intervals, and the mean average width is below 0.2 at the 95% confidence level. The results demonstrate the proposed forecasting system outperforms other comparative models considered from the forecasting accuracy and stability, which has great potential in the application of wind power systems.