Predicting Likelihood for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting After Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Finding the Best Prediction Model

Predicting severe multivessel coronary artery disease to guide access strategy in patients undergoing invasive coronary angiography

INTRODUCTION

Given radial artery conduits are increasingly utilized for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), avoiding transradial access (TRA) for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) may benefit patients who ultimately undergo CABG. We sought to predict the likelihood of severe multivessel disease (MVD) before ICA to guide this decision.

METHODS

This was a single-center study of 1485 patients with stable symptoms who underwent ICA. A model to predict severe MVD was developed. Relative importance analyses were performed to identify clinical characteristics most associated with the presence or absence of severe MVD.

RESULTS

When predicting severe MVD, the model had a sensitivity of 70.3% and specificity of 71.8% (area under the curve = 0.7105). With a prevalence of 12.5% in our cohort, the model had a strong negative predictive value of 94.4%. Relative importance analyses showed factors most associated with the presence of severe MVD were a history of abnormal noninvasive tests, typical chest pain, aspirin use, insulin-dependent diabetes, increasing age, and a family history of coronary artery disease. Conversely, the absence of severe MVD was most associated with female sex, undergoing ICA as workup for either noncardiac or valve surgery, lung disease, atypical chest pain, and increased BMI.

CONCLUSION

Clinical information available before ICA can risk stratify the likelihood of severe MVD and therefore aid in identifying patients that may need CABG and could stand to benefit from TRA avoidance. The potential benefits of maximizing radial artery conduit availability by avoiding TRA must be balanced against the risks of alternative access on an individual patient basis.

Medical Fuzzy-Expert System for Assessment of the Degree of Anatomical Lesion of Coronary Arteries

BACKGROUND

Today, cardiovascular diseases cause 47% of all deaths among the European population, which is 4 million cases every year. In Ukraine, CAD accounts for 65% of the mortality rate from circulatory system diseases of the able-bodied population and is the main cause of disability. The aim of this study is to develop a medical expert system based on fuzzy sets for assessing the degree of coronary artery lesions in patients with coronary artery disease.

METHODS

The method of using fuzzy sets for the implementation of an information expert system for solving the problems of medical diagnostics, in particular, when assessing the degree of anatomical lesion of the coronary arteries in patients with various forms of coronary artery disease, has been developed.

RESULTS

The paper analyses the main areas of application of mathematical methods in medical diagnostics, and formulates the principles of diagnostics, based on fuzzy logic. The developed models and algorithms of medical diagnostics are based on the ideas and principles of artificial intelligence and knowledge engineering, the theory of experiment planning, the theory of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables. The expert system is tested on real data. Through research and comparison of the results of experts and the created medical expert system, the reliability of supporting the correct decision making of the medical expert system based on fuzzy sets for assessing the degree of anatomical lesion of the coronary arteries in patients with various forms of coronary artery disease with the assessment of experts was 95%, which shows the high efficiency of decision making.

CONCLUSIONS

The practical value of the work lies in the possibility of using the automated expert system for the solution of the problems of medical diagnosis based on fuzzy logic for assessing the degree of anatomical lesion of the coronary arteries in patients with various forms of coronary artery disease. The proposed concept must be further validated for inter-rater consistency and reliability. Thus, it is promising to create expert medical systems based on fuzzy sets for assessing the degree of disease pathology.

Oral Antiplatelet Therapy Administered Upstream to Patients With NSTEMI

To describe from a noninterventional registry (Utilization of Ticagrelor in the Upstream Setting for Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome), the short-term ischemic and hemorrhagic outcomes in patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (MI) are managed with a loading dose (LD) of a P2Y₁₂ inhibitor (P2Y₁₂i) given at least 4 hours before diagnostic angiography and delineation of coronary anatomy. Prior data on the effects of such “upstream loading” have been inconsistent.

Major Bleeding after Surgical Revascularization with Dual Antiplatelet Therapy

OBJECTIVE

Patients with acute coronary syndrome are treated with dual antiplatelet therapy containing acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) and P2Y12 antagonists. In case of urgent coronary artery bypass grafting this might be associated with increasing risks of bleeding complications.

METHODS

Data from 1200 consecutive urgent operations between 2010 and 2018 were obtained from our institutional patient database. For this study off-pump surgery was excluded. The primary composite end point major bleeding consisted of at least one end point: transfusion ≥ 5 packed red blood cells within 24 hours, rethoracotomy due to bleeding, chest tube output >2000 mL within 24 hours. Demographic data, peri-, and postoperative variables and outcomes were compared between patients treated with mono antiplatelet therapy, ASA + clopidogrel (ASA-C) +ticagrelor (ASA-T) or +prasugrel (ASA-P) < 72 hours before surgery. Furthermore, we compared patients with dual antiplatelet therapy with ASA monotherapy.

RESULTS

From 1,086 patients, 475 (44%) received dual antiplatelet therapy. Three-hundred seventy-two received ASA-C (77.7%), 72 ASA-T (15%), and 31 ASA-P (6.5%). Major bleeding (44 vs. 23%, p < 0.0001) was more frequently in patients receiving dual therapy with higher rates of massive drainage loss within 24 hours (23 vs. 11%, p < 0.0001) of mass transfusion (34 vs. 16%, p < 0.0001) and rethoracotomy (10 vs. 5%, p = 0.002) when compared with ASA. In this analysis, ASA-T and ASA-P were not associated with higher bleeding complications compared with ASA-C.

CONCLUSION

Dual antiplatelet therapy is associated with higher rates of major bleeding. Further studies should examine the difference in the prevalence of major bleeding complications in the different dual antiplatelet therapy regimes in patients requiring urgent surgery.