A Risk Score for Adults With Congenital Heart Disease Undergoing Heart Transplantation

Surgical Considerations in Adult Congenital Heart Disease Heart Failure

Surgical intervention is often used in the management of heart failure in patients with adult congenital heart disease. This review addresses anatomic variations and complications due to prior surgical interventions, including sternal reentry, collateral vessels, and the neo-aortic root after the Damus-Kaye-Stansel procedure. Surgical considerations for systemic atrioventricular valvular surgery, Fontan revision, and advanced heart failure therapies including ventricular assist devices, heart transplant, and combined heart-liver transplant are discussed, with a focus on unique patient populations including those with systemic right ventricles and those with Fontan circulation.

Machine learning-based prediction of mortality after heart transplantation in adults with congenital heart disease: A UNOS database analysis

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being applied in Cardiology to predict outcomes and assist in clinical decision-making. We sought to develop and validate an ML model for the prediction of mortality after heart transplantation (HT) in adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD).

METHODS

The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database was queried from 2000 to 2020 for ACHD patients who underwent isolated HT. The study cohort was randomly split into derivation (70%) and validation (30%) datasets that were used to train and test a CatBoost ML model. Feature selection was performed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Recipient, donor, procedural, and post-transplant characteristics were tested for their ability to predict mortality. We additionally used SHAP for explainability analysis, as well as individualized mortality risk assessment.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 1033 recipients (median age 34 years, 61% male). At 1 year after HT, there were 205 deaths (19.9%). Out of a total of 49 variables, 10 were selected as highly predictive of 1-year mortality and were used to train the ML model. Area under the curve (AUC) and predictive accuracy for the 1-year ML model were .80 and 75.2%, respectively, and .69 and 74.2% for the 3-year model, respectively. Based on SHAP analysis, hemodialysis of the recipient post-HT had overall the strongest relative impact on 1-year mortality after HΤ, followed by recipient-estimated glomerular filtration rate, age and ischemic time.

CONCLUSIONS

ML models showed satisfactory predictive accuracy of mortality after HT in ACHD and allowed for individualized mortality risk assessment.

Evaluation of Critical Factors of Postoperative Arrhythmia and Preventive Measures of Deep Venous Thrombosis

The study focused on the risk factors of postoperative arrhythmia and lung infection and the preventive effects of targeted low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) on the occurrence of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in patients with esophageal/cardia cancer. In this article, 82 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with esophageal/cardia cancer and underwent surgical treatment were selected as the research subjects. According to the different preoperative treatment methods, the patients were divided into the control group (without anticoagulant drugs before the operation, 44 cases) and the anticoagulation group (anticoagulant drugs were administered before the operation, 38 cases), and they were compared for basic clinical indicators and disease history. Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the risk factors of adverse events, and the Wells and Autar scale scores were calculated. Different groups were compared for the operation time, blood loss, and postoperative drainage volume during the operation. D-dimer was detected on the first 1, 3, 5, and 7 days after the operation, and the lower extremity venous color Doppler ultrasound was performed on the 1st and 7th days after the operation. The results showed that age ≥65 years, abnormal preoperative ECG, preoperative coronary heart disease (CHD), preoperative chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), operative time ≥4 h, and preoperative blood sodium <4.04.0 mmol/L were all risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia. Age, preoperative diabetes mellitus, preoperative COPD, length of hospital stay, and FEV1 were all risk factors for postoperative lung infections. In the control group and anticoagulation group, 11 cases (13.41%) and 5 cases (16.10%) had lower extremity DVT, respectively. The incidence of lower extremity DVT was lower in the anticoagulation group than in the control group (P < 0.01). It suggested that age, preoperative disease history, hospital stay, and operation time were risk factors for postoperative adverse events in patients with esophageal/cardia cancer. The targeted anticoagulant LMWH has a significant preventive effect on the occurrence of lower extremity DVT in patients with esophageal/cardia cancer, providing an effective reference for the prognosis and prevention of esophageal/cardia cancer.

Impact of the 2018 change in US allocation policy on adults with congenital heart disease

BACKGROUND

The US adult heart allocation policy was changed on October 18, 2018. This study aims to evaluate its impact on orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) for adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD).

METHODS

The United Network for Organ Sharing database was used to perform 2 comparisons: waitlist outcomes among listed ACHD candidates, and post-transplant outcomes in those transplanted. Waitlisted candidates were stratified by date of waitlisting: Period 1: 2010 to 2013; Period 2: 2014 to October 17, 2018 and Period 3: October 18, 2018 to March 20, 2020. Transplanted ACHD patients were similarly stratified but by date of transplantation. Competing risk regression for waitlist outcomes was performed. Post-transplant survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

Nine hundred and seventy-six patients with ACHD were waitlisted for OHT in our study: 343(35.1%), 466(47.8%), and 167(17.1%) in periods 1, 2, and 3. Post-policy change, 1-year cumulative incidence of waitlist mortality or deterioration decreased (p = 0.02). Six hundred and forty-eight patients were transplanted: 221(34.1%), 329(50.8%) and 98(15.1%) respectively. In those transplanted, post-policy median waitlist time (174, 161 and 38 days, p < 0.001) decreased and the use of intra-aortic balloon pumps increased (1.4%, 4.9% and 19.4%, p < 0.001). Compared to periods 1 and 2, risk-adjusted post-transplant 1-year mortality was similar to period 3 (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.52-2.32; p = 0.81) (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.58-2.46, p = 0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

The recent US allocation policy change may have resulted in reduced waitlist times and 1-year waitlist mortality for OHTs in ACHD patients. Early post-transplant outcomes appear comparable post-policy change.