Mapping ozone source-receptor relationship and apportioning the health impact in the Pearl River Delta region using adjoint sensitivity analysis

A case study of surface ozone source contributions in the Seoul metropolitan area using the adjoint of CMAQ

To quantitatively investigate the transboundary behaviors and source attributions of ozone (O3) and its precursor species over East Asia, we utilize the adjoint technique in the CMAQ modeling system (the CMAQ adjoint). Our focus is on the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in South Korea, which is the receptor region of this study. We examine the contributions of both local and transported emissions to an O3 exceedance episode observed on June 3, 2019, estimating up to four days in advance. By using the CMAQ adjoint, we can determine the sensitivity of O3 remaining in the SMA to changes in O3 precursor emissions (emissions-based sensitivity) and concentrations (concentrations-based sensitivity) along the long-range transport pathways and emission source regions overseas. These include Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Shandong, Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Central China. CMAQ adjoint-derived source attributions suggest that overseas precursor emissions and O3 contributed significantly to the O3 exceedance event in SMA. The emissions-based sensitivities revealed that precursor emissions originating from Shandong, YRD, Central China, and BTH contributed 11.42 ppb, 4.28 ppb, 1.24 ppb, 0.9 ppb, respectively, to the O3 exceedance episode observed in the SMA. Meanwhile, Korean emissions contributed 31.1 ppb. Concentrations-based sensitivities indicated that 19.3 ppb of contributions originated in regions beyond eastern China and directly affected the O3 level in the SMA in the form of background O3. In addition to capturing the transboundary movements of air parcels between the source and receptor regions, we performed HYSPLIT backward trajectory analyses. The results align with the trajectories of O3 and its precursors that we obtained from the adjoint method. This study represents a unique effort in employing the adjoint technique to examine the impacts of regional O3 on South Korea, utilizing a combination of emissions-based and concentrations-based sensitivities.Implications: This research brings to light the critical role of both local and regional precursor emissions in contributing to an ozone (O3) exceedance event in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), South Korea. Utilizing the CMAQ adjoint technique, a novel approach in the context of South Korea's O3 investigations, we were able to delineate the quantitative contributions of different regions, both within South Korea and from overseas areas such as Beijing, Shandong, Shanghai, and Central China. Importantly, the results underscore the substantial influence of transboundary pollutant transport, emphasizing the need for international collaboration in addressing air quality issues. As metropolitan areas around the globe grapple with similar challenges, the methodology and insights from this study offer a potent tool and framework for regions seeking to understand and mitigate the impacts of O3 on human health and the environment. By integrating different sensitivity types, coupled with HYSPLIT backward trajectory analyses, this research equips policymakers with comprehensive data to design targeted interventions, emphasizing the significance of collaborative efforts in tackling regional air pollution challenges. However, it's important to note the limitation of this study, which is a case study conducted over a short time period. This constraint may impact the generalizability of the findings and suggests a need for further research to validate and expand upon these results.

Health burden from food systems is highly unequal across income groups

Food consumption contributes to the degradation of air quality in regions where food is produced, creating a contrast between the health burden caused by a specific population through its food consumption and that faced by this same population as a consequence of food production activities. Here we explore this inequality within China's food system by linking air-pollution-related health burden from production to consumption, at high levels of spatial and sectorial granularity. We find that low-income groups bear a 70% higher air-pollution-related health burden from food production than from food consumption, while high-income groups benefit from a 29% lower health burden relative to their food consumption. This discrepancy largely stems from a concentration of low-income residents in food production areas, exposed to higher emissions from agriculture. Comprehensive interventions targeting both production and consumption sides can effectively reduce health damages and concurrently mitigate associated inequalities, while singular interventions exhibit limited efficacy.

Green finance, the low-carbon energy transition, and environmental pollution: evidence from China

With 2008-2020 China's provincial panel data as the research object, we use the entropy weight method to compute green finance and pollution, and we empirically study the scope of the spillover effects and threshold impacts of green finance on environmental pollution using the spatial Durbin model and threshold regression model. The findings are as follows: first, under different spatial weight matrices, green finance has a spatial spillover effect on pollution. And the effect boundary is approximately 500 km. Second, with the low-carbon energy transition, technological progress, and green finance as threshold variables, there are a single threshold, single threshold, and double threshold, respectively, that have significant threshold effects. Third, the spillover and threshold effects of green finance on pollution differ by region. The indirect effect is negative in the eastern region and positive in the central and western regions. There is a single threshold effect of low-carbon energy transition and green finance in the western region, a single threshold effect of green finance in the central region, and a single threshold effect of technological progress in the eastern region. On this basis, we put forward. specific policy recommendations.

Long-term trends of atmospheric hot-and-polluted episodes (HPE) and the public health implications in the Pearl River Delta region of China

Air pollution and extreme heat have been responsible for more than a million deaths in China every year, especially in densely urbanized regions. While previous studies intensively evaluated air pollution episodes and extreme heat events, a limited number of studies comprehensively assessed atmospheric hot-and-polluted-episodes (HPE) - an episode with simultaneously high levels of air pollution and temperature - which have potential adverse synergic impacts on human health. This study focused on the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China due to its high temperature in summer and poor air quality throughout a year. We employed geostatistical downscaling to model meteorology at a spatial resolution of 1 km, and applied a machine learning algorithm (XGBoost) to estimate a high-resolution (1 km) daily concentration of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) for June to October over 20 years (2000-2019). Our results indicate an increasing trend (∼50%) in the frequency of HPE occurrence in the first decade (2000-2010). Conversely, the annual frequency of HPE occurrence reduced (16.7%), but its intensity increased during the second decade (2010-2019). The northern cities in the PRD region had higher levels of PM_2.5 and O₃ than their southern counterparts. During HPEs, regional daily PM_2.5 exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) and Chinese guideline levels by 75% and 25%, respectively, while the O₃ exceeded the WHO O₃ standard by up to 69%. Overall, 567,063 (95% confidence interval (CI): 510,357-623,770) and 52,231 (95%CI: 26,116-78,346) excessive deaths were respectively attributable to exposure to PM_2.5 and O₃ in the PRD region. Our findings imply the necessity and urgency to formulate co-benefit policies to mitigate the region's air pollution and heat problems.

Development of GRAPES-CUACE adjoint model version 2.0 and its application in sensitivity analysis of ozone pollution in north China

We presented the development of the gaseous chemistry adjoint module of the meteorological-chemical model system GRAPES-CUACE (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System coupled with CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environmental Forecasting System) on the basis of the previously constructed aerosol adjoint module. The latest version of the GRAPES-CUACE adjoint model mainly includes the adjoint of the physical and chemical processes, the adjoint of the transport processes, and the adjoint of interface programs, of both gas and aerosol. The adjoint implementation was validated for the full model, and adjoint results showed good agreement with brute force sensitivities. We also applied the newly developed adjoint model to the sensitivity analysis of an ozone episode occurred in Beijing on July 2, 2017, as well as the design of emission-reduction strategies for this episode. The relationships between the ozone concentration and precursor emissions were well captured by the adjoint model. It is indicated that for a case used here, the Beijing peak ozone concentration was influenced mostly by local emissions (6.2-24.3%), as well as by surrounding emissions, including Hebei (4.4-16.8%), Tianjin (1.8-6.6%), Shandong (1.8-2.6%), and Shanxi (<1%). In addition, reduction of NO_x, VOCs, and CO emissions in these regions would effectively decrease the Beijing peak ozone concentration. This study highlights the capability of GRAPES-CUACE adjoint model in quantifying "emission-concentration" relationship and in providing guidance for environmental control policy.

What drives long-term PM2.5-attributable premature mortality change? A case study in central China using high-resolution satellite data from 2003 to 2018

Ambient PM_2.5 was reported to be related to numerous negative health outcomes, leading to adverse public health impacts in many countries such as China. Despite the apparent reduction in PM_2.5 levels over China due to its emission control policies in recent years, the health burdens were not reduced as much as expected. This calls for a comprehensive analysis to explain the reasons behind to provide a useful reference for formulating effective emission control strategies. Taking central China as an example due to its large population and high levels of PM_2.5, this study quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of premature mortality associated with PM_2.5 pollution in central China for each year during 2003-2018 and applied a decomposition analysis to dissect the contribution of various driving factors including ambient PM_2.5 level, demographic distribution and baseline incidence rate of four diseases related to air pollution. Results show significant spatiotemporal variations in PM_2.5-attributed health impact in central China, including Henan, Hubei, and Hunan provinces. Five Henan cities had the largest PM_2.5-attributable premature mortality (∼8-12 K premature mortalities), while three Hubei cities and one Hebei city had the least chronic PM_2.5-related all-cause mortality numbers (<1 K mortalities). Throughout the study period, the PM_2.5-caused premature mortality decreased by 54 K, in which changes in PM_2.5 levels and baseline incidence rates of stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease contributed to the positive effect, whereas demographic changes and baseline incidence rate change of ischemic heart disease and lung cancer brought a countervailing effect. Our findings suggest more dynamic and comprehensive policies and measures that take into account spatiotemporal variations of health burden for effective alleviation of the health impact of PM_2.5 pollution in the country.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Regional Transport of Ground-Level Ozone in Major Urban Agglomerations in China

Ground-level ozone (O3) pollution has become a serious environmental issue in major urban agglomerations in China. To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and regional transports of O3 in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH-UA), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD-UA), the Triangle of Central China (TC-UA), Chengdu–Chongqing (CY-UA), and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRD-UA), multiple transdisciplinary methods were employed to analyze the O3-concentration data that were collected from national air quality monitoring networks operated by the China National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC). It was found that although ozone concentrations have decreased in recent years, ozone pollution is still a serious issue in China. O3 exhibited different spatiotemporal patterns in the five urban agglomerations. In terms of monthly variations, O3 had a unimodal structure in BTH-UA but a bimodal structure in the other urban agglomerations. The maximum O3 concentration was in autumn in PRD-UA, but in summer in the other urban agglomerations. In spatial distribution, the main distribution of O3 concentration was aligned in northeast–southwest direction for BTH-UA and CY-UA, but in northwest–southeast direction for YRD-UA, TC-UA, and PRD-UA. O3 concentrations exhibited positive spatial autocorrelations in BTH-UA, YRD-UA, and TC-UA, but negative spatial autocorrelations in CY-UA and PRD-UA. Variations in O3 concentration were more affected by weather fluctuations in coastal cities while the variations were more affected by seasonal changes in inland cities. O3 transport in the center cities of the five urban agglomerations was examined by backward trajectory and potential source analyses. Local areas mainly contributed to the O3 concentrations in the five cities, but regional transport also played a significant role. Our findings suggest joint efforts across cities and regions will be necessary to reduce O3 pollution in major urban agglomerations in China.

A new approach for health-oriented ozone control strategy: Adjoint-based optimization of NOx emission reductions using metaheuristic algorithms

While levels of particulate matters in the Pearl River Delta Region (PRD) show a significant reduction, ozone (O₃) has an opposite increasing trend, becoming the critical air quality target in this decade. Emission control strategies are typically formulated sector by sector, spatial variability in emissions reductions and health impacts of air pollutants may not be taken into account, affecting the overall effectiveness of control strategies. This study proposes an adjoint-based optimization framework to facilitate health-oriented O₃ control over PRD. The location-specific adjoint sensitivity coefficients, which reflect the spatiotemporal influences from emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO_x) on O₃ health impacts, are combined with metaheuristic algorithms to minimize the O₃-related premature mortalities over receptor regions. Using the proposed optimization methodology, the regional O₃ health benefits under current emission reduction policy can be increased by 16-27%. The results show that relatively larger NO_x emissions reductions occurred at highly developed and populated areas. Particularly, significant reductions in NO_x emissions are observed at Shenzhen and urban Guangzhou. Furthermore, implementing regional NO_x emissions abatement has advantages to achieve an overall O₃ health benefits for all cities. The interregional influences of NO_x emissions abatement between cities indicate a promising strategy of health-oriented O₃ control in PRD.

Development of a 3D Real-Time Atmospheric Monitoring System (3DREAMS) Using Doppler LiDARs and Applications for Long-Term Analysis and Hot-and-Polluted Episodes

Heatwaves and air pollution are serious environmental problems that adversely affect human health. While related studies have typically employed ground-level data, the long-term and episodic characteristics of meteorology and air quality at higher altitudes have yet to be fully understood. This study developed a 3-Dimensional Real-timE Atmospheric Monitoring System (3DREAMS) to measure and analyze the vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed and direction, vertical wind velocity as well as aerosol backscatter. The system was applied to Hong Kong, a highly dense city with complex topography, during each season and including hot-and-polluted episodes (HPEs) in 2019. The results reveal that the high spatial wind variability and wind characteristics in the lower atmosphere in Hong Kong can extend upwards by up to 0.66 km, thus highlighting the importance of mountains for the wind environment in the city. Both upslope and downslope winds were observed at one site, whereas downward air motions predominated at another site. The high temperature and high concentration of fine particulate matter during HPEs were caused by a significant reduction in both horizontal and vertical wind speeds that established conditions favorable for heat and air pollutant accumulation, and by the prevailing westerly wind promoting transboundary air pollution. The findings of this study are anticipated to provide valuable insight for weather forecasting and air quality studies. The 3DREAMS will be further developed to monitor upper atmosphere wind and air quality over the Greater Bay Area of China.