A predictive model for serious adverse events in adults with acute poisoning in prehospital and hospital care

The Ability of Emergency Medical Service Staff to Predict Emergency Department Disposition: A Prospective Study

Purpose

Paramedics' decision to notify receiving hospitals and transport patients to an appropriate healthcare facility is based on the Prediction of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and Hospital Admissions guide. This study aimed to assess the paramedics' gestalt on both ward and ICU admission.

Patients and Methods

A prospective study was conducted at King Abdulaziz Medical City between September 2021 and March 2022. Paramedics were asked several questions related to the prediction of the patient's hospital outcome, including emergency department (ED) discharge or hospital admission (ICU or ward). Additional data, such as the time of the ambulance's arrival and the staff years of experience, were collected. The categorical characteristics are presented by frequency and percentage for each category.

Results

This study included 251 paramedics and 251 patients. The average age of the patients was 62 years. Of the patients, 32 (12.7%) were trauma, and 219 (87.3%) were non-trauma patients. Two-thirds of the patients (n=171, 68.1%) were predicted to be admitted to the hospital, and 80 (31.8%) of the EMS staff indicated that the patient do not need a hospital or an ambulance. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the emergency medical service (EMS) staffs' gestalt for patient admission to the hospital were, respectively (77%), (33%), (16%), and (90%). Further analysis was reported to defend the EMS staffs' gestalt based on the level of EMS staff and the nature of the emergency (medical vs trauma), are reported.

Conclusion

Our study reports a low level of accurately predicting patient admission to the hospital, including the ICU. The results of this study have important implications for enhancing the accuracy of EMS staff predictive ability and ensuring that patients receive appropriate care promptly.

Severity of emergency department presentations due to acute drug toxicity in Europe: a longitudinal analysis over a 6-year period (2014-2019) stratified by sex

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the severity of acute recreation drug toxicity presentations to emergency departments (EDs) in Europe has changed in recent years and to uncover potential sex differences.

DESIGN

We analysed presentations to 36 EDs in 24 European countries relating to acute recreational drug toxicity, with separate analysis for presentations involving lone use of cannabis, cocaine, and heroin. As severity markers, we calculated rates of hospitalization, admission to ICU, intubation, and death by annual quarters between 2014 and 2019. Trends on severity over time were estimated by logistic regression. Differences between men and women were assessed by interaction. Sensitivity analysis was performed including only EDs that provided data for all 24 quarters. Analyses of intoxications taken altogether were adjusted by age and sex, while of lone intoxications being also adjusted by ethanol co-ingestion.

RESULTS

There were 43 633 presentations (median age = 31 years, interquartile range = 25-40 years, men = 76.5%) resulting in 10 344 hospitalizations (23.9%), 2568 ICU admissions (5.9%), 1391 intubations (3.2%), and 171 deaths (0.39%). Hospitalization, ICU admission and death did not differ by sex, but intubation was more frequent in men (3.4% vs. 2.3%, P < 0.001). No significant changes in the severity of drug intoxications over time were found when considered altogether, neither for lone cannabis (n = 4264) nor cocaine (n = 3562). Conversely, significant increases in hospitalization [odds ratios (OR) = 1.023, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.004-1.041], ICU admission (OR = 1.080, 95% CI = 1.042-1.118) and in intubation (OR = 1.049, 95% CI = 1.001-1.099) were detected for lone heroin presentations (n = 1997). Sensitivity analysis (32 245 presentations, 14 EDs, 9 countries) confirmed the overall absence of changes in severity markers (except for death rate, which significantly decreased by quarter: OR = 0.968, 95% CI = 0.943-0.994). Additionally, it suggested an increased risk over time of intubation for cocaine (OR = 1.068, 95% CI = 1.009-1.130) and confirmed the increased risk of ICU admission for heroin (OR = 1.058, 95% CI = 1.013-1.105). Changes in severity over time did not differ according to sex in the main analysis of the whole cohort, while a significantly higher decrease in risk of death in men was found in the sensitivity analysis (OR = 0.894, 95% CI = 0.825-969 vs. OR = 0.949, 95% CI = 0.860-1.048; P interaction = 0.042).

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of presentations to European EDs remained mainly unchanged during 2014-2019, but the risk of death may have decreased. Conversely, intubation in lone cocaine and ICU admission in lone heroin intoxications have increased. Although men and women exhibited a similar pattern over the period for the majority of comparisons, our data suggest that women exhibited a smaller decrease of the overall risk of death.