The impact of weather factors, moon phases, and seasons on abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture

Determination of the influence of weather and air constituents on aortic aneurysm ruptures

In this article, we present a method to determine the influence of meteorology and air pollutants on ruptured aortic aneurysm (rAA). In contrast to previous studies, our work takes into account highly resolved seasonal relationships, a time-lagged effect relationship of up to two weeks, and furthermore, potential confounding influences between the meteorological and air-hygienic variables are considered and eliminated using a cross-over procedure. We demonstrate the application of the method using the cities of Augsburg and Munich in southern Germany as examples, where a total of 152 rAA can be analyzed for the years 2010-2019. With the help of a Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the analysis of the atmospheric circulation, typical weather situations could be identified that have an influence on the occurrence of rAA in the southern German region. These are a rainy northwest wind-type in spring, humid weather in summer and warm southwest wind-type weather in autumn and winter.

Relationship of Ambient Temperature Parameters to Stroke Incidence in a Japanese Population - Takashima Stroke Registry, Japan, 1988-2010

BACKGROUND

Using a population-based stroke registry system, we evaluated the relationship between ambient temperature parameters and stroke incidence in a Japanese population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed data from the Takashima Stroke Registry, which records all stroke occurrences in Takashima City, Japan. The study period of 8,401 days was divided into quintiles of daily weather parameters, and the middle quintile was used as the reference category. Incidence rates (IR per 100,000 person-years) were calculated across the quintiles. Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate the effect of temperature parameters on stroke incidence. There were 2,405 first-ever strokes (1,294 men), including 1,625 ischemic, 545 cerebral hemorrhages, 213 subarachnoid hemorrhages, and 22 unclassified strokes. The stroke IR was higher in the middle quintile of average temperature, 357.3 (328.4-388.8), and for other parameters. After adjustment for age and sex, for all stroke, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) in the highest (Q5: IRR 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.92) and the second-highest (Q4: IRR 0.80, 95% CI 0.71-0.91) quintile was lower than that in the middle quintile (Q3: Reference). Analogous results were observed for the minimum, maximum, and lag-days temperatures, also in the subtypes and across ≥65 years of age, also in females.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher temperatures, irrespective of the parameter (average, minimum, or maximum), had a protective effect against stroke occurrence in Japan.

Editor's Choice - Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Weekend Admission on Outcomes for Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: A Call for an Equitable Seven Day Vascular Service

OBJECTIVE

"The weekend effect" of higher patient mortality when presenting at a weekend compared with a weekday has been established for several conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a weekend effect exists for the emergency condition of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

DATA SOURCES

A review of the literature was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines (PROSPERO registration number CRD42020157484). MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched using the Healthcare Databases Advanced Search interface developed by NICE.

REVIEW METHODS

The prognostic factor of interest was weekend admission. The primary outcome of interest was all cause peri-operative mortality, with a secondary outcome of hospital length of stay. A random effects meta-analysis was performed, and the results were reported as summary odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Twelve observational cohort studies published between 2001 and 2019 comprising 14 patient cohorts with a total of 95 856 patients were eligible for quantitative synthesis. Patients presenting on a weekend had a significantly higher risk of unadjusted in hospital mortality (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10 - 1.31, p < .001). Both the unadjusted 30 day mortality risk (OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.98 - 1.39, p = .090) and unadjusted 90 day mortality risk (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.90 - 1.40, p = .30) were higher for those presenting at a weekend, but neither reached statistical significance. There was a significantly greater risk of combined unadjusted in hospital, 30 and 90 day mortality for those presenting at a weekend (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09 - 1.27, p < .001). Hospital length of stay was not statistically different between groups.

CONCLUSION

There is an association between weekend admission and higher mortality in patients presenting with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

Climatic influence on the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture

Our aim is to examine the effects of climatic conditions on the incidence of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAA) in Catalonia, Spain. We combined clinical data from the Public Health official registries in Catalonia, Spain (HD-MBDS) of all rAAA with local climatic data obtained from the closest meteorological station (69 stations, National Meteorological Service: MeteoCat) from 2008 to 2017. We analyzed the median, maximum, minimum, and variability of atmospheric pressure (hPa) and air temperature (°C), solar irradiation (MJ/m²), humidity (%), accumulated precipitation (mm), median wind, and maximum flaw direction and velocity (°, m/s), recorded on the days of events, the previous day, and mean results for 3, 7, and 30 days before, as well as seasonality. Seventy-five control days were randomly selected in a 1-year period around every rAAA day at the same meteorological station, and compared. A total of 717 days and locations with rAAA were identified, and 53,775 controls were randomly selected. For the rAAA days, there were significantly lower temperatures, lower solar global irradiation, and higher mean humidity levels in all time periods (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.05); higher atmospheric pressure variability during 1 week and 1 month before (p = 0.011, p = 0.007); and they often occurred during autumn/winter (57.6%, p < 0.001). Logistic regression identified low mean temperatures on the days of ruptures and high mean humidity the week before as independent rupture predictors. In conclusion, low median temperatures the same day and high humidity during 1 week before were identified as independent predictors of rAAA occurrence. The role of climate on pathophysiologic mechanisms may require further investigation.

Dependence of odontogenic abscess on meteorological parameters: truth or myth?

OBJECTIVES

It is still a common belief among dental practitioners that odontogenic abscesses are somehow linked to meteorological parameters. We investigated the influence of different meteorological parameters on the type of surgical abscess treatment (intra- versus extraoral incision) as a measure of the weather-dependent severity of infection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed 841 patients who presented at our outpatient clinic with an odontogenic abscess between 2004 and 2013.

RESULTS

We found no statistical dependence between intra- versus extraoral abscess incision with regard to temperature, atmospheric pressure, or relative air humidity. The annual distribution of abscesses was even, and the number of abscesses with greater or lesser mean values of each meteorological parameter did not differ significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed no statistical relationship between meteorological parameters and intra- or extraoral abscess incisions.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Our analysis supports the assumption that the theorized relationship between odontogenic abscesses and meteorological parameters remains a myth.

Chronologic and Climatic Factors of Acute Aortic Dissection: Study of 1642 Patients in Two Continents

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to examine whether chronologic and climatic factors and lunar phases affect the onset of acute aortic dissection (AAD).

METHODS

The frequencies of AAD were analyzed with regard to the chronologic and climatic factors and lunar phases on the day when AAD occurred for 1642 patients with AAD from two aortic referral centers in the United States and China.

RESULTS

Mean age of patients was 51.6 ± 13.1 years, and 1260 (76.7%) were men. Dissection was type A in 1125 patients (68.5%) and type B in 517 (31.5%). Early mortality rate was 11.6% (190 of 1642), including 89 aortic ruptures before operation and 101 operative deaths. There was a winter peak in occurrence (33.6%, P < .01) with a relative risk of 1.519. In a week, the frequency was highest on Wednesday (15.5%) and Monday (15.2%), and lowest on Sunday (12.8%). Month-specific incidence was significantly inversely correlated to the mean temperature (rho = -0.650, P = .022) and directly correlated to the atmospheric pressure (rho = 0.706, P = .001). The proportion of type A dissection was significantly higher in the full moon phase compared with type B dissection (73.7% vs 66.9%, P = .012).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute aortic dissection exhibits significant chronologic variation in the frequency of occurrence, with a peak in winter and on Wednesdays, and nadir in summer and on Sundays. The incidence is significantly correlated to the mean temperature and atmospheric pressure. The proportion of type A dissection is higher in the full moon phase. These results are important for understanding the mechanisms involved in triggering AAD events and helpful for improving disease prevention and patient care.

Influence of earthquakes on the occurrence of aortic aneurysm ruptures

BACKGROUND

Catastrophic events have been correlated to increased incidence of cardio-vascular events, but no correlation between RAA and seismic activities have ever been investigated.

METHODS

Hospital admissions related to RAA between January 2014 and December 2016 were retrospectively assessed in nine vascular centers of central Italy and correlated with date-matched seismic events. Correlation between RAA presentation and seismic event was first evaluated by Linear Regression analysis. Incidence of RAA events, mortality rate, and type of intervention were analyzed during seismic days (SD) and compared to outcomes during non-seismic days (nSD).

RESULTS

A total of 376 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of RAA, and a total of 783 seismic events were reviewed. Twenty patients died before intervention (untreated). Open surgery was performed in 72.8%, endovascular treatment in 27.2%. General mortality at 30 days was 26.6% (30.5% for open surgery; 21.6% for endovascular treatment; P=0.24). Linear regression analysis between RAA and seismic periods revealed a significant correlation (slope=0.11±0.04, equation: y = 0.1143 x + 3.034, P=0.02). Incidence of RAA was 0.34 event per day during the entire period, 0.32 during nSD and 0.44 during SD (P=0.006). During seismic days, patients with RAA were older (80.5 years during SD vs. 77 years during nSD, P=0.12), were in poorer general condition at admission and remained untreated more frequently (8% SD vs. 4.7% nSD, P=0.3), and had a higher mortality rate at 30 days (46.2% SD vs. 27.2% nSD, P=0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

During seismic days, the incidence of RAA is higher in comparison to non-seismic days. Patients with rupture during seismic days have a higher risk of death.

Forecasting aortic aneurysm rupture: A systematic review of seasonal and atmospheric associations

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) represent a significant burden of disease worldwide, and their rupture, without treatment, has an invariably high mortality rate. Whereas some risk factors for ruptured AAAs (rAAAs) are well established, such as hypertension, smoking, and female sex, the impact of seasonal and meteorologic variables is less clear. We systematically reviewed the literature to determine whether these variables are associated with rAAA.

METHODS

Review methods were according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We calculated pooled proportions and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the different months and seasons. Funnel plots were constructed to assess for publication bias. Given the poor methodologic quality of included studies, a sensitivity analysis was performed on better-quality studies, which scored 6 and above of 9 in the author-modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

The pooled proportion of rAAA was highest in the autumn season (incidence rate, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.6%-27.7%; I² = 15.4%), followed by winter (incidence rate, 26.2%; 95% CI, 24.1%-28.2%; I² = 72.4%), and lowest in summer (incidence rate, 21.1%; 95% CI, 19.3%-23.0%; I² = 70.4%). The IRRs of rAAA were -6.9% (95% CI, -9.8% to -3.9%), -19.5% (95% CI, -22% to -16.8%), +10.5% (95% CI, 7.2%-13.9%), and +18.1% (95% CI, 15%-22%) in spring, summer, autumn, and winter compared with the remaining seasons, respectively (all P < .0001), thus affirming existence of seasonal variation. The pooled proportion of rAAA was highest in December (incidence rate, 8.9%; 95% CI, 7.1%-10.9%; I² = 54.5%) but lowest in July (incidence rate, 5.7%; 95% CI, 4.2%-7.3%; I² = 54.5%). The IRR was significantly the highest in January (IRR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.29; P = .031) but lowest in July (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.87; P < .0001). There is also some evidence for a possible association with atmospheric pressure. Associations with temperature and daylight hours, however, are at best speculative.

CONCLUSIONS

Autumn and winter are significantly associated with a higher incidence of rAAAs, and autumn is associated with the highest rupture incidence of all the seasons. However, the inability to appropriately control for other confounding factors known to increase the risk of AAA rupture precludes any additional recommendations to alter current provision of vascular services on the basis of these data.

Seasonal incidence of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm and the influence of atmospheric pressure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) is a life-threatening condition with a high mortality rate. Seasonal variations in the incidence of rAAA and the influence of atmospheric pressure have been studied throughout decades; however, the conclusions are contradictory. Therefore, we aimed to conduct a meta-analysis and systematic review of literature on seasonal variations in rAAA incidence and the influence of atmospheric pressure. Studies investigating seasonal variations in rAAA incidence and influence of atmospheric pressure were retrieved. For dichotomous data, we generated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for rAAA incidence compared among seasons. The studies were subdivided according to latitude, elevation, and climatic types, for subgroup comparisons. Studies reporting monthly incidence and seasonal mortality were further investigated. For continuous data, standardized mean differences (SMDs) and 95% CIs were generated for atmospheric pressure comparisons. Twenty-four eligible studies were included, comprising a total of 38,506 patients with rAAA. Pooled rAAA incidence was 25% in spring, 23% in summer, 26% in autumn, and 26% in winter. Pooled analysis demonstrated a statistically significant higher rAAA incidence in winter than in summer (RR 1.10, P = 0.04) and in autumn than in summer (RR 1.11, P < 0.00001). However, there was no statistically significant difference among other seasons. In the study of the influence of atmospheric pressure, no statistically significant difference was observed. In conclusion, our study revealed a higher incidence of rAAA in autumn and winter than in summer; however, atmospheric pressure was found to exert no influence.

Effects of atmospheric pressure dynamics on abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture onset

BACKGROUND

The effect of atmospheric pressure (AP) on the onset of abdominal aorta aneurysm rupture (RAAA) remains an unanswered question. We have investigated the seasonal variation and the effect of AP dynamics on RAAA by analysing the largest series of intraoperatively confirmed RAAA.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

To realize this study we have performed a retrospective analysis of 546 patients with RAAA, operated within 503 days at the Clinic for vascular and endovascular surgery CCS between 1.1.2003 and 31.12.2012. AP data for Belgrade city were obtained from meteorological yearbooks published by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia measured at the hydrometeorological station "Belgrade Observatory". Only patients with a residence within the extended Belgrade region, exposed to the similar AP values, were included in the analysis of the AP effect on RAAA.

RESULTS

RAAA were observed more frequently during winter and autumn months but without significant difference in comparison to other seasons. Months with higher AP values were associated with a higher RAAA rate (p = 0.0008, R2 = 0.665). A similar trend was observed for the monthly AP variability (p = 0.0311, R2 = 0.374). Average AP values did not differ between days with and without RAAA. However, during the three and seven days periods preceding RAAA AP variability parameters were greater and AP was rising.

CONCLUSIONS

Although these pressure differences are very small, higher AP values over longer periods of time as well as greater variability are associated with RAAA. The exact mechanism behind this association remains unclear. The postulation that low AP may precipitate RAAA based on the Laplace law should be discarded.

Meta-analysis of day-of-week variation of acute aortic rupture or dissection

INTRODUCTION

We performed a meta-analysis to assess the presence of a day-of-week rhythmic variability of acute aortic rupture or dissection (AARD) onset.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Eligible studies were observational studies enrolling patients with AARD and reporting day-of-week variation of AARD. Study-specific estimates, i.e. day-of-week incidence of AARD, were combined using the random-effects model. Chronobiological analysis was performed by applying a partial Fourier series to pooled day-of-week incidence by using the inverse-variance weighted least-squares method.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

We identified 9 eligible studies enrolling a total of 28,036 patients with AARD. Pooled incidence of AARD was 12.8% on Sunday, 15.9% on Monday, 14.8% on Tuesday, 15.1% on Wednesday, 14.7% on Thursday, 14.1% on Friday, and 12.1% on Saturday. Chronobiological analysis identified a significant (P=0.0098) day-of-week pattern in the occurrence of AARD with a peak on Monday and a nadir on Saturday. Pooled analysis demonstrated significantly more incidence on Monday than on Saturday (relative risk: 1.247; 95% CI: 1.131 to 1.374; P=0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of AARD was 12.8%, 15.9%, 14.8%, 15.1%, 14.7%, 14.1%, and 12.1%, on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, respectively. A significant day-of-week pattern in the occurrence of AARD with a peak on Monday and a nadir on Saturday was identified with significantly more incidence on Monday than on Saturday.

A meta-analysis of weekend admission and surgery for aortic rupture and dissection

We performed a meta-analysis to determine whether weekend admission and surgery for ruptured abdominal/thoracic aortic aneurysm (RAAA/RTAA) and acute aortic dissection (AAD) is associated with increased mortality. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 1946 to December 2016 using PubMed and OVID. Eligible studies were prospective or retrospective, comparative or cohort studies enrolling patients admitting or undergoing surgery for RAAA/RTAA/AAD and reporting mortality after weekend (including holiday) versus weekday admission/surgery. Our search identified 11 studies including a total of 166,195 patients. A pooled analysis of 13 adjusted odds ratios (ORs), one adjusted hazard ratio, and one unadjusted OR from all 11 studies demonstrated a statistically significant 32% increase in mortality with weekend admission/surgery (OR, 1.32; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20 to 1.45; p < 0.00001). Despite possible publication bias disadvantageous to weekend admission/surgery based on funnel plot asymmetry, adjustment for the asymmetry using the trim-and-fill method did not alter the significant association of weekend admission/surgery with increased mortality (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.34; p = 0.0006). In conclusion, weekend admission/surgery for ruptured abdominal/thoracic aortic aneurysm and acute aortic dissection (AAD) may be associated with increased mortality.

Atmospheric pressure changes are associated with type a acute aortic dissections and spontaneous abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture in tuzla canton

Aim:

The aim of this study was to investigate a relationship between seasonal variation and incidence of type A acute aortic dissection (AAD) and spontaneous abdominal aneurysm rupture (rAAA) in Canton Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Patients and methods:

A total of 81 cases, 41 AAD and 40 of ruptured AAA were identified from one center over a 6-year, from 2008 till 2013. In 2012 were admitted (45.6% or 36 patients).

Results:

Seasonal analysis showed that 19(23.4%) patients were admitted in spring, 15(18.5) in summer, 26(32%) in autumn and 21(25.9) in winter. The most frequent period was autumn/winter with 47 or 58% patients. A causal link between atmospheric pressure (AP) and incidence of rAAA and AAD on seasonal and monthly basis was found.