A Meta-Analysis to Derive Population-Based Quality Benchmarks of the Incidence of Surgical Site Infection after Lower Limb Revascularization Surgery

Prediction Models for Forecasting Risk of Development of Surgical Site Infection after Lower Limb Revascularization Surgery: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Surgical site infections (SSIs) are a common and potentially preventable complication of lower limb revascularization surgery associated with increased healthcare resource utilization and patient morbidity. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate multivariable prediction models designed to forecast risk of SSI development after these procedures.

METHODS

After protocol registration (CRD42022331292), we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews (inception to April 4th, 2023) for studies describing multivariable prediction models designed to forecast risk of SSI in adults after lower limb revascularization surgery. Two investigators independently screened abstracts and full-text articles, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. A narrative synthesis was performed to summarize predictors included in the models and their calibration and discrimination, validation status, and clinical applicability.

RESULTS

Among the 6,671 citations identified, we included 5 studies (n = 23,063 patients). The included studies described 5 unique multivariable prediction models generated through forward selection, backward selection, or Akaike Information Criterion-based methods. Two models were designed to predict any SSI and 3 Szyilagyi grade II (extending into subcutaneous tissue) SSI. Across the 5 models, 18 adjusted predictors (10 of which were preoperative, 3 intraoperative, and 5 postoperative) significantly predicted any SSI and 14 adjusted predictors significantly predict Szilagyi grade II SSI. Female sex, obesity, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease significantly predicted SSI in more than one model. All models had a "good fit" according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P > 0.05). Model discrimination was quantified using the area under the curve, which ranged from 0.66 to 0.75 across models. Two models were internally validated using non-exhaustive twofold cross-validation and bootstrap resampling. No model was externally validated. Three studies had a high overall risk of bias according to the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST).

CONCLUSIONS

Five multivariable prediction models with moderate discrimination have been developed to forecast risk of SSI development after lower limb revascularization surgery. Given the frequency and consequences of SSI after these procedures, development and external validation of novel prediction models and comparison of these models to the existing models evaluated in this systematic review is warranted.

Risk Factors for Surgical Site Infection after Lower Limb Revascularisation Surgery: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Studies

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and meta-analyse adjusted risk factors for surgical site infection (SSI) after lower limb revascularisation surgery.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, Evidence Based Medicine Reviews, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (inception to 28 April 2022).

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. After protocol registration, databases were searched. Studies reporting adjusted risk factors for SSI in adults who underwent lower limb revascularisation surgery for peripheral artery disease were included. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using random effects models. GRADE was used to assess certainty.

RESULTS

Among 6 377 citations identified, 50 studies (n = 271 125 patients) were included. The cumulative incidence of SSI was 12 (95% confidence interval [CI] 10 - 13) per 100 patients. Studies reported 139 potential SSI risk factors adjusted for a median of 12 (range 1 - 69) potential confounding factors. Risk factors that increased the pooled adjusted odds of SSI included: female sex (pooled OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.20 - 1.64; high certainty); dependent functional status (pooled OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.03 - 1.35; low certainty); being overweight (pooled OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.29 - 2.56; moderate certainty), obese (pooled OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.44 - 3.36; high certainty), or morbidly obese (pooled OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.08 - 2.52; moderate certainty); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (pooled OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.17 - 1.71; high certainty); chronic limb threatening ischaemia (pooled OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.22 - 2.29; moderate certainty); chronic kidney disease (pooled OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.18 - 3.83; moderate certainty); intra-operative (pooled OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.49), peri-operative (pooled OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.27 - 2.90), or post-operative (pooled OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.44 - 3.39) blood transfusion (moderate certainty for all); urgent or emergency surgery (pooled OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.22 - 3.70; moderate certainty); vein bypass and or patch instead of endarterectomy alone (pooled OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.33 - 2.59; moderate certainty); an operation lasting ≥ 3 hours (pooled OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.33 - 2.59; moderate certainty) or ≥ 5 hours (pooled OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.18 - 2.17; moderate certainty); and early or unplanned re-operation (pooled OR 4.50, 95% CI 2.18 - 9.32; low certainty).

CONCLUSION

This systematic review identified evidence informed SSI risk factors following lower limb revascularisation surgery. These may be used to develop improved SSI risk prediction tools and to identify patients who may benefit from evidence informed SSI prevention strategies.