Predicting intraoperative hypotension: from hope to hype and back to reality

Beyond the debut: unpacking six years of Hypotension Prediction Index software in intraoperative hypotension prevention - a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Intraoperative hypotension (IOH) during general anesthesia is associated with higher morbidity and mortality, although randomized trials have not established a causal relation. Historically, our approach to IOH has been reactive. The Hypotension Prediction Index (HPI) is a machine learning software that predicts hypotension minutes in advance. This systematic review and meta-analysis explores whether using HPI alongside a personalized treatment protocol decreases intraoperative hypotension.

METHODS

A systematic search was performed in Pubmed and Scopus to retrieve articles published from January 2018 to February 2024 regarding the impact of the HPI software on reducing IOH in adult patients undergoing non-cardio/thoracic surgery. Excluded were case series, case reports, meta-analyses, systematic reviews, and studies using non-invasive arterial waveform analysis. The risk of bias was assessed by the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool (RoB 2) and the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies (ROBINS-I). A meta-analysis was undertaken solely for outcomes where sufficient data were available from the included studies.

RESULTS

9 RCTs and 5 cohort studies were retrieved. The overall median differences between the HPI-guided and the control groups were - 0.21 (95% CI:-0.33, -0.09) - p < 0.001 for the Time-Weighted Average (TWA) of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) < 65mmHg, -3.71 (95% CI= -6.67, -0.74)-p = 0.014 for the incidence of hypotensive episodes per patient, and - 10.11 (95% CI= -15.82, -4.40)-p = 0.001 for the duration of hypotension. Notably a large amount of heterogeneity was detected among the studies.

CONCLUSIONS

While the combination of HPI software with personalized treatment protocols may prevent intraoperative hypotension (IOH), the large heterogeneity among the studies and the lack of reliable data on its clinical significance necessitate further investigation.

Comparison of differences in cohort (forwards) and case control (backwards) methodological approaches for validation of the Hypotension Prediction Index

BACKGROUND

The Hypotension Prediction Index (the index) software is a machine learning algorithm that detects physiological changes that may lead to hypotension. The original validation used a case control (backwards) analysis that has been suggested to be biased. We therefore conducted a cohort (forwards) analysis and compared this to the original validation technique.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from previously reported studies. All data were analysed identically with 2 different methodologies and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) constructed. Both backwards and forwards analyses were performed to examine differences in area under the ROC for HPI and other haemodynamic variables to predict a MAP < 65mmHg for at least 1 minute 5, 10 and 15 minutes in advance.

RESULTS

Two thousand and twenty-two patients were included in the analysis, yielding 4,152,124 measurements taken at 20 second intervals. The area-under-the-curve for the index predicting hypotension analysed by backward and forward methodologies respectively was 0.957 (95% CI, 0.947-0.964) vs 0.923 (95% CI, 0.912-0.933) 5 minutes in advance, 0.933 (95% CI, 0.924-0.942) vs 0.923 (95% CI, 0.911-0.933) 10 minutes in advance , and 0.929 (95% CI, 0.918-0.938) vs. 0.926 (95% CI, 0.914-0.937) 15 minutes in advance. No other variable had an area-under-the-curve > 0.7 except for MAP. Area-under-the-curve using forward analysis for MAP predicting hypotension 5, 10, and 15 minutes in advance was 0.932 (95% CI, 0.920-0.940), 0.929 (95% CI, 0.918-0.938), and 0.932 (95% CI, 0.921-0.940). The R 2 for the variation in the index due to MAP was 0.77.

CONCLUSION

Using an updated methodology, we found the utility of the HPI index to predict future hypotensive events is high, with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve similar to that of the original validation method.

The Incidence of Perioperative Hypotension in Patients Undergoing Major Abdominal Surgery with the Use of Arterial Waveform Analysis and the Hypotension Prediction Index Hemodynamic Monitoring-A Retrospective Analysis

Intraoperative hypotension (IH) is common in patients receiving general anesthesia and can lead to serious complications such as kidney failure, myocardial injury and increased mortality. The Hypotension Prediction Index (HPI) algorithm is a machine learning system that analyzes the arterial pressure waveform and alerts the clinician of an impending hypotension event. The purpose of the study was to compare the frequency of perioperative hypotension in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery with different types of hemodynamic monitoring. The study included 61 patients who were monitored with the arterial pressure-based cardiac output (APCO) technology (FloTrac group) and 62 patients with the Hypotension Prediction Index algorithm (HPI group). Our primary outcome was the time-weighted average (TWA) of hypotension below < 65 mmHg. The median TWA of hypotension in the FloTrac group was 0.31 mmHg versus 0.09 mmHg in the HPI group (p = 0.000009). In the FloTrac group, the average time of hypotension was 27.9 min vs. 8.1 min in the HPI group (p = 0.000023). By applying the HPI algorithm in addition to an arterial waveform analysis alone, we were able to significantly decrease the frequency and duration of perioperative hypotension events in patients who underwent major abdominal surgery.

CON: The hypotension prediction index is not a validated predictor of hypotension

The Hypotension Prediction Index (HPI) algorithm is a commercial prediction algorithm developed to predict hypotension, a mean arterial pressure (MAP) below 65 mmHg. Although HPI has been investigated in several studies, recent concerns of have been raised regarding HPI's predictive abilities, which may have been overstated. A selection bias may have forced the HPI algorithm to learn almost exclusively from MAP. This CON position paper describes the selection bias further and summarises the scientific status of HPI's predictive abilities, including the meaning of a recent erratum retracting the primary conclusion of a published HPI validation study. We argue that the HPI algorithm needs re-validation or complete re-development to achieve a clinically relevant 'added value' in comparison with the predictive performance of a simple and costless MAP alarm threshold in the range of 70 to 75 mmHg.

Intraoperative blood pressure: could less be more?

Retrospective observational studies have reported a significant association between intraoperative hypotension and postoperative morbidity. However, association does not imply causation, and whether preventing intraoperative hypotension can improve patient outcome remains to be demonstrated. In this issue of the British Journal of Anaesthesia, D'Amico and colleagues meta-analysed 10 prospective randomised trials comparing low (≤60 mm Hg) and higher mean arterial pressure targets during anaesthesia and surgery. They did not observe an increase in postoperative morbidity and mortality in the low target group. In contrast, they reported a statistically significant (but not clinically relevant) reduction in postoperative cardiac arrhythmia and hospital length of stay when targeting mean arterial pressure ≤60 mm Hg. These findings suggest that during most surgical cases, intraoperative hypotension is a marker of the severity, frailty, or both rather than a mediator of postoperative complications.