The impact bias in self and others: Affective and empathic forecasting in individuals with social anxiety

Affective forecasting and psychopathology: A scoping review

Affective forecasting - estimations of future emotional reactions - is an important aspect of future thinking that informs judgement and decision making. Biases in affective forecasting have been noted generally and with people with emotional disturbances specifically. Still, the role of affective forecasting within models of psychopathology has received little attention. Given the state of the literature, a scoping review method was adopted to summarize and synthesize the methodological approaches used in measuring affective forecasting within the context of psychopathology and the scope of the evidence on this association. Three databases were searched for research published on or before November 13th, 2023. Original quantitative research that examined affective forecasting and its association with psychopathology was reviewed. Data were charted using a form designed for this study. Overall, the review highlights the heterogeneity in operationalization of affective forecasting. The majority of the evidence supports an association between severity of psychopathology and intensity of affective forecasts, with notable exceptions, which are discussed within the scope of methodology and operationalization of affective forecasting. This remains an important process to investigate in information processing models of psychopathology to elucidate its role in the development and maintenance of psychopathology and potential as a target for intervention.

Empathic forecasting of the big-fish-little-pond effect

The big-fish-little-pond effect (BFLPE) is the tendency for students to evaluate themselves more favourably when they have high rank in a low rank school than low rank in a high rank school. Research has documented the BFLPE on experienced emotions. We conducted three studies that examined forecasts of how the BFLPE influences other people's emotions (i.e. empathic forecasts). In Study 1, participants received performance feedback about themselves or another person and reported their own affect or anticipated the other person's affect. Results extended the BFLPE to empathic forecasting. Moreover, forecasters anticipated that the BFLPE had a stronger influence on negative emotion than it actually did. Study 2 tested whether neglect of group rank underlies the BFLPE in empathic forecasting. Empathic forecasts were strongly influenced by another person's rank in their group, but only weakly influenced by group rank. Study 3 tested whether extremity of group ranks exacerbates the BFLPE in empathic forecasting. Empathic forecasts were especially favourable (unfavourable) when a target had very high (low) rank in a very low (high) rank group. These data support the BFLPE in empathic forecasting, but also illustrate ways in which it is both similar to and different from actual experience of the effect.

Sociability Alcohol Expectancies Shape Predictions of Drinking Behavior and Anxiety in a Novel Affective Forecasting Task

Background: Existing work proposes that people with higher social anxiety symptoms and sociability alcohol expectancies believe alcohol can lower their anxiety. However, studies have primarily analyzed retrospective reports, not anticipatory motives. Since predictions of future emotion (i.e., affective forecasts) strongly influence behavior, it is critical to understand how people predict alcohol will influence their anxiety. Additionally, intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is related to the use of alcohol as a coping tool, but there is a dearth of work testing whether IU influences alcohol-related forecasts. Objectives: Utilizing a novel affective forecasting task, we tested the prediction that social anxiety symptoms, sociability alcohol expectancies, and IU would relate to predictions about alcohol use. In an initial study and preregistered replication, participants imagined themselves in stressful social scenarios and forecasted how anxious they would feel when drinking and when sober. In the replication, participants also forecasted whether they would drink in the imagined scenarios. Results: Contrary to hypotheses, social anxiety symptoms and IU did not significantly predict higher forecasted anxiety across studies, nor did they predict forecasted drinking. Exploratory analyses showed that participants with higher sociability alcohol expectancies forecasted being more likely to drink, and forecasted feeling less anxious when drinking (versus being sober). Even after statistically controlling for social anxiety, the effect of sociability expectancies remained significant in predicting forecasted anxiety and forecasted drinking. Conclusions: Clinicians could consider specifically targeting sociability expectancies for alcohol use difficulties, and future research should continue utilizing affective forecasting paradigms to test links between social anxiety, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol-use problems.

A pilot study investigating affective forecasting biases with a novel virtual reality-based paradigm

A body of research indicates that people are prone to overestimate the affective impact of future events. Here, we developed a novel experimental paradigm to study these affective forecasting biases under laboratory conditions using subjective (arousal and valence) and autonomic measures (skin conductance responses, SCRs, and heart rate). Thirty participants predicted their emotional responses to 15 unpleasant, 15 neutral, and 15 pleasant scenarios (affective forecasting phase) to which they were then exposed in virtual reality (emotional experience phase). Results showed that participants anticipated more extreme arousal and valence scores than they actually experienced for unpleasant and pleasant scenarios. The emotional experience phase was characterized by classic autonomic patterns, i.e., higher SCRs for emotionally arousing scenarios and greater peak cardiac acceleration for pleasant scenarios. During the affective forecasting phase, we found only a moderate association between arousal scores and SCRs and no valence-dependent modulation of cardiac activity. This paradigm opens up new perspectives for investigating affective forecasting abilities under lab-controlled conditions, notably in psychiatric disorders with anxious anticipations.

The relationship between psychiatric symptoms and affective forecasting bias

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Affective forecasting (AF) is the prediction of future emotional states. Negatively biased affective forecasts (i.e., overestimating negative affect) have been associated with trait anxiety, social anxiety, and depression symptoms, but few studies have tested these relationships while covarying commonly co-occurring symptoms.

METHODS

In this study, participants (N = 114) completed a computer game in dyads. Participants were randomized into one of two conditions: a condition in which they were led to believe they were at-fault for losing their dyad money (n = 24 dyads) or a condition in which they were told no one was at fault (n = 34 dyads). Prior to the computer game, participants forecasted their affect for each potential game outcome.

RESULTS

More severe social anxiety, trait-level anxiety, and depressive symptoms were all associated with more negative AF bias in the at-fault relative to the no-fault condition, and this effect persisted when controlling for other symptoms. Cognitive and social anxiety sensitivity was also associated with more negative AF bias.

LIMITATIONS

The generalizability of our findings is innately limited by our non-clinical, undergraduate sample. Future work should replicate and extend our research in more diverse populations and clinical samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our results support that AF biases are observed across a range of psychopathology symptoms and associated with transdiagnostic cognitive risk factors. Future work should continue investigating the etiological role of AF bias in psychopathology.

Skin Color and Attractiveness Modulate Empathy for Pain: An Event-Related Potential Study

Although racial in-group bias in empathy for pain has been reported, empathic responses to others’ pain may be influenced by other characteristics besides race. To explore whether skin color and attractiveness modulate empathy for pain, we recorded 24 participants’ reactions to painful faces from racial in-group members with different skin color (fair, wheatish, or dark) and attractiveness (more or less attractive) using event-related potentials (ERPs). Results showed that, for more attractive painful faces, dark skin faces were judged as less painful and elicited smaller N2 amplitudes than fair- and wheatish-skinned faces. However, for less attractive faces, there were no significant differences among the three skin colors. Our findings suggest that empathy for pain toward racial in-group members may be influenced by skin color and attractiveness.

Subclinical psychopathology and affective forecasting: Role of in-the-moment feelings

It is important for positive well-being and social engagement to understand how people predict future emotions, an ability known as affective forecasting. However, mechanisms underpinning the change to affective forecasting are not well understood in people with subclinical psychiatric symptoms. The current study differentiated components that comprise affective forecasting and investigated how non-clinical features relate to these. We recruited 319 participants to complete the social affective forecasting task and respond to questionnaires that captured schizotypal and autistic traits as well as depressive symptoms. Associations between affective forecasting and subclinical features were investigated using correlations, regression, and structure equation modeling. Results showed that interpersonal features of schizotypal traits negatively predicted anticipated emotions in positive social conditions via in-the-moment feelings but not via mental simulation. Findings highlight that in-the-moment feelings may be an intervention target to help people who have difficulties with social interactions to anticipate more pleasure for future social events.

MDMA-Assisted Therapy as a Means to Alter Affective, Cognitive, Behavioral, and Neurological Systems Underlying Social Dysfunction in Social Anxiety Disorder

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) is a prevalent and often debilitating psychiatric disorder that can assume a chronic course even when treated. Despite the identification of evidence-based pharmacological and behavioral treatments for SAD, much room for improved outcomes exists and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) has been proposed as a promising adjunctive treatment to psychological interventions for disorders characterized by social dysfunction. A small randomized, placebo-controlled trial of MDMA-assisted therapy (MDMA-AT) for social anxiety in autistic adults offered encouraging results, but more research is sorely needed to explore the potential for MDMA-AT in treating SAD. This review aims to stimulate future study by summarizing research on disruptions in neurological, perceptual, receptive, and expressive systems regulating social behavior in SAD and proposing how MDMA-AT may alter these systems across four domains. First, we review research highlighting the roles of social anhedonia and reduced social reward sensitivity in maintaining SAD, with specific attention to the reduction in positive affect in social situations, infrequent social approach behaviors, and related social skills deficits. We posit that MDMA-AT may enhance motivation to connect with others and alter perceptions of social reward for an extended period following administration, thereby potentiating extinction processes, and increasing the reinforcement value of social interactions. Second, we review evidence for the central role of heightened social evaluative threat perception in the development and maintenance of SAD and consider how MDMA-AT may enhance experiences of affiliation and safety when interacting with others. Third, we consider the influence of shame and the rigid application of shame regulation strategies as important intrapersonal processes maintaining SAD and propose the generation of self-transcendent emotions during MDMA sessions as a mechanism of shame reduction that may result in corrective emotional experiences and boost memory reconsolidation. Finally, we review research on the role of dysfunctional interpersonal behaviors in SAD that interfere with social functioning and, in particular, the development and maintenance of close and secure relationships. We discuss the hypothesized role of MDMA-AT in improving social skills to elicit positive interpersonal responses from others, creating a greater sense of belonging, acceptance, and social efficacy.

Social Anxiety and Empathy: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to clarify the association between social anxiety and affective (AE) and cognitive empathy (CE).

METHODS

1442 studies from PsycINFO, Medline, and EMBASE (inception-January 2020) were systematically reviewed. Included studies (N = 48) either predicted variance in empathy using social anxiety scores or compared empathy scores between socially anxious individuals and a control group.

RESULTS

Social anxiety and AE were statistically significantly positively associated, k = 14, r = .103 (95%CI [.003, .203]), z = 2.03, p = .043. Sex (Q_M (2) = 18.79, p <  .0001), and type of measures (Q_M (1 = 7.34, p = .007) moderated the association. Correlations were significant for male samples (r_male = .316, (95%CI [.200, .432])) and studies using self-report measures (r_self-report = .162 (95%CI [.070, .254])). Overall, social anxiety and CE were not significantly associated, k = 52, r =-.021 (95%CI [-.075, .034]), z= -0.74, p = .459. Sample type moderated the association (Q_M (1) = 5.03, p < .0001). For clinical samples the association was negative (r_clinical= -.112, (95%CI [-.201, -.017]).

CONCLUSION

There was evidence for a positive association between social anxiety and AE, but future studies are needed to verify the moderating roles of sex and type of measure. Besides, low CE might only hold for patients with SAD.

Associations Between Social Anxiety and Affective and Empathic Forecasts: A Replication and Extension in a Mechanical Turk Sample

People often overestimate the intensity and duration of their future emotions, referred to as an impact bias. Impact biases have been documented in predictions people make about their own emotions, as well as the others' emotions (i.e., affective and empathic forecasting, respectively). Recent studies have shown that negative impact biases may be stronger, and positive impact biases may be attenuated, in individuals with symptoms of social anxiety. The current study sought to replicate and extend these findings in a Mechanical Turk (MTurk) sample. MTurk is a particularly interesting online platform for such research because of the unusually high prevalence of social anxiety among MTurk users. Within a computer-based survey, 93 MTurk users read vignettes in which a second-person narrator elicited either disgust, anger, or happiness from another person. After each vignette, participants predicted how the narrator (i.e., affective forecasts) and the other person (i.e., empathic forecasts) would feel. Overall, results confirmed the existence of associations between social anxiety symptoms and negative affective and empathic forecasting biases, though no significant relations were found between social anxiety symptoms and positive forecasting biases. Negative affective and empathic forecasting biases were significantly correlated. Age and gender were also examined as potential predictors and moderators of hypothesized effects. Though younger age and female gender were associated with specific forecast ratings, controlling for these variables did not alter the associations between social anxiety and affective or empathic forecasts and no moderation effects were found. Overall, results provide additional support for the relevance of impact biases to social anxiety and suggest that they may be useful targets of intervention.

How can we reduce bias during an academic assessment reappraisal?

Aims: To describe potential sources of bias during an academic assessment reappraisal and ways to mitigate these. Methods: We describe why the typical scenario of an academic assessment reappraisal - where committee members are asked to weigh contrasting accounts of past events that they did not witness, and to rate elusive constructs, such as "fairness" - is prone to multiple types of bias, including attribute substitution, default bias, confirmation bias, and impact bias. We also discuss how increased awareness of sources of bias and of debiasing strategies can improve the validity of decision making. Results: Strategies that can reduce bias in reappraisal include clearly articulating and focusing on the reappraisal question (did bias cause a wrong decision to be made?), educating those involved in the reappraisal of the types of bias that frequently occur in teaching and assessment (including biases that they themselves may introduce to the reappraisal), and ensuring that those involved in the reappraisal contribute equally to making decisions and recommendation. Conclusions: All academic assessments of students, particularly those that involve subjective ratings of performance, are prone to bias, which threatens the integrity of the assessment process. Given the high stakes of academic assessments, we feel that each medical school should have a process for assessment reappraisal that reduces, rather than compounds, the likelihood of wrong assessment decisions.

How badly will I feel if you don't like me?: Social anxiety and predictions of future affect

The current study investigated whether high and low socially anxious individuals would show differences in affective forecasting accuracy (i.e., the prediction of emotional states in response to future events) to positive versus negative social evaluation. High (n=94) and low (n=98) socially anxious participants gave a speech and were randomly assigned to receive a positive or negative evaluation. For affective forecasts made proximally (moments before the speech), those low in social anxiety overpredicted their affect to a greater extent to a negative evaluation versus a positive evaluation. In contrast, those high in social anxiety overpredicted their affect to positive and negative evaluations comparably, and failed to adjust their prediction for a future hypothetical negative evaluation - in effect, not learning from their prior forecasting error. Results suggest that affective forecasting biases deserve further study as a maintaining factor for social anxiety symptoms.