[Evolution of mortality in severe chest trauma in the elderly patient]

Identifying factors predicting outcomes after major trauma in older patients: Prognostic systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Trauma is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in older people, and it is important to determine the predictors of outcomes after major trauma in older people.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science were searched, and manual search of relevant papers since 1987 to February 2023 was performed. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. The primary outcome of interest was mortality, and secondary outcomes were medical complications, length of stay, discharge destination, readmission, and intensive care requirement.

RESULTS

Among 6,064 studies in the search strategy, 136 studies qualified the inclusion criteria. Forty-three factors, ranging from demographics to patient factors, admission measurements, and injury factors, were identified as potential predictors. Mortality was the commonest outcome investigated, and increasing age was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.07) along with male sex (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.24-1.59). Comorbidities of heart disease (OR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.41-4.77), renal disease (OR, 2.52; 95% CI, 1.79-3.56), respiratory disease (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.09-1.81), diabetes (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.03-1.77), and neurological disease (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.93-2.18) were also associated with increased in-hospital mortality risk. Each point increase in the Glasgow Coma Scale lowered the risk of in-hospital mortality (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.95), while each point increase in Injury Severity Score increased the risk of in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09). There were limited studies and substantial variability in secondary outcome predictors; however, medical comorbidities, frailty, and premorbid living condition appeared predictive for those outcomes.

CONCLUSION

This review was able to identify potential predictors for older trauma patients. The identification of these factors allows for future development of risk stratification tools for clinicians.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis; Level III.

Risk factors that predict mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Over the last 10 years, research has highlighted emerging potential risk factors for poor outcomes following blunt chest wall trauma. The aim was to update a previous systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk factors for mortality in blunt chest wall trauma patients.

METHODS

A systematic review of English and non-English articles using MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Library from January 2010 to March 2022 was completed. Broad search terms and inclusion criteria were used. All observational studies were included if they investigated estimates of association between a risk factor and mortality for blunt chest wall trauma patients. Where sufficient data were available, ORs with 95% CIs were calculated using a Mantel-Haenszel method. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic.

RESULTS

73 studies were identified which were of variable quality (including 29 from original review). Identified risk factors for mortality following blunt chest wall trauma were: age 65 years or more (OR: 2.11; 95% CI 1.85 to 2.41), three or more rib fractures (OR: 1.96; 95% CI 1.69 to 2.26) and presence of pre-existing disease (OR: 2.86; 95% CI 1.34 to 6.09). Other new risk factors identified were: increasing Injury Severity Score, need for mechanical ventilation, extremes of body mass index and smoking status. Meta-analysis was not possible for these variables due to insufficient studies and high levels of heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this updated review suggest that despite a change in demographics of trauma patients and subsequent emerging evidence over the last 10 years, the main risk factors for mortality in patients sustaining blunt chest wall trauma remained largely unchanged. A number of new risk factors however have been reported that need consideration when updating current risk prediction models used in the ED.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021242063. Date registered: 29 March 2021. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/%23recordDetails.