Lung cancer prevalence in New South Wales (Australia): Analysis of past trends and projection of future estimates

Prevalence of survivors of childhood cancer based on a population-based cancer registry in Osaka, Japan

Although the survival rate of patients with childhood cancer has greatly improved, long-term survivors face specific problems such as the late effects of cancer treatment. In this study, we estimated the number of people who had experienced childhood cancer to predict their needs for medical care and social resources. Using data from the population-based Osaka Cancer Registry, we identified children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with cancer between 1975 and 2019. We estimated the prevalence on December 31, 2019, and the 5- and 10-year prevalence (i.e., the number of survivors living up to 5 or 10 years after the diagnosis of cancer) over time. The prevalence proportion was age-standardized using a direct standardization method. The prevalence estimates for Osaka were applied to the national population to determine the national prevalence in Japan. Among 8186 patients diagnosed with childhood cancer in Osaka, 5252 (987 per million) survived until December 31, 2019. The 5-year prevalence per million increased from 194 in 1979 to 417 in 2019 (+116%), while the 10-year prevalence increased from 391 in 1984 to 715 in 2019 (+83%). Based on the long-term registry data, an estimated 73,182 childhood cancer survivors were living in Japan by the end of 2019. The increasing 5-year and 10-year prevalence proportions indicate the continued need for cancer survivorship support for children, adolescents, and young adults. These estimates of the prevalence of childhood cancer survivors, including long-term survivors, may be useful for policymakers and clinicians to plan and evaluate survivorship care.

Cancer Prevalence Projections in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2050: A Statistical Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

We provide comprehensive sex-stratified projections of cancer prevalence for 22 cancer sites in Japan from 2020 to 2050.

METHODS

Using a scenario-based approach, we projected cancer prevalence by combining projected incidence cases and survival probabilities. Age-specific incidences were forecasted using age-period-cohort models, while survival rates were estimated using a period-analysis approach and multiple parametric survival models. To understand changes in cancer prevalence, decomposition analysis was conducted, assessing the contributions of incidence, survival, and population demographics.

RESULTS

By 2050, cancer prevalence in Japan is projected to reach 3,665,900 (3,210,200 to 4,201,400) thousand cases, representing a 13.1% increase from 2020. This rise is primarily due to a significant increase in female survivors (+27.6%) compared with a modest increase in males (+0.8%), resulting in females overtaking males in prevalence counts from 2040 onward. In 2050, the projected most prevalent cancer sites in Japan include colorectal, female breast, prostate, lung, and stomach cancers, accounting for 66.4% of all survivors. Among males, the highest absolute increases in prevalence are projected for prostate, lung, and malignant lymphoma cancers, while among females, the highest absolute increases are expected for female breast, colorectal, and corpus uteri cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings emphasize the evolving cancer prevalence, influenced by aging populations, changes in cancer incidence rates, and improved survival. Effective prevention, detection, and treatment strategies are crucial to address the growing cancer burden.

IMPACT

This study contributes to comprehensive cancer control strategies and ensures sufficient support for cancer survivors in Japan.

Lung Cancer Stigma across the Social Network: Patient and Caregiver Perspectives

OBJECTIVE

To examine the personal experiences of people with lung cancer and their caregivers and how stigma is manifested throughout a patient's social network.

METHODS

A qualitative thematic analysis of interviews with 28 patients with lung cancer and their caregivers was conducted. Telephone interviews were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Data analysis was guided by contemporary stigma theory.

RESULTS

Patients and caregivers reported feeling high levels of felt stigma and concomitant psychological distress in response to the diagnosis of lung cancer. Three overarching themes emerged: the nexus of lung cancer and smoking, moralization, and attacking the link between lung cancer and smoking. Stigma was inevitably linked to smoking, and this formed the hub around which the other themes were organized. Caregivers reported feeling invisible and noted a lack of support systems for families and caregivers. In addition, there was evidence that caregivers experienced stigma by association as members of the patients' close networks. Both groups responded ambivalently to stigmatizing antismoking advertisements.

CONCLUSIONS

The qualitative analysis demonstrated the complex interplay of the social and personal domains in the experience and outcomes of stigma in lung cancer. There is a significant potential for caregivers of patients with lung cancer to experience exacerbations of psychosocial distress as a consequence of widely shared negative views about lung cancer and its prognosis. It remains for researchers and practitioners to incorporate such complexity in addressing stigma and psychosocial distress in both patients and caregivers.

Contrasting temporal trends in lung cancer incidence by socioeconomic status among women in New South Wales, Australia, 1985-2009

OBJECTIVE

We examined long-term trends in lung cancer incidence for women by socioeconomic groups in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

METHODS

Data on lung cancer incidence for women were extracted from the NSW Cancer Registry database. We divided the study cohort into five quintiles according to an area-based index of education and occupation (IEO) and calculated annual age-standardised incidence rates by IEO quintile for the period 1985-2009. The age-standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was estimated for IEO quintiles and 5-year period of diagnosis using the highest IEO quintile as the reference.

RESULTS

Overall, lung cancer incidence for women aged 25-69 years increased gradually from 19.8 per 100,000 in 1985 to 25.7 per 100,000 in 2009. The trends by IEO quintile were somewhat comparable from 1985 through to 1995, but from then on rates remained relatively stable for women residing in the highest quintile while increasing for women residing in the remaining four quintiles. Consequently, the SIR for all four of the lower IEO quintiles increased significantly over the 25-year period. For example, the SIR in the lowest IEO quintile increased from 1.16 (95% CI, 0.99-1.37) during 1985-1989 to 1.70 (95% CI, 1.50-1.93) during 2005-2009. The corresponding estimates for women aged 70 years or older showed no clear pattern of socioeconomic gradient.

CONCLUSION

The increasing gap in lung cancer incidence between women in the highest socioeconomic group and all others suggests that there is a continued need for the broad implementation of tobacco control interventions, so that smoking prevalence is reduced across all segments of the population and the subsequent benefits are shared more equitably across all demographic groups.

Slowing the Titanic: China's Epic Struggle with Tobacco

China is home to a third of the world's smokers and, correspondingly, to a third of the world's cases of lung cancer. Beginning in the mid-1990s, a generation or so later than in many Western countries, the Chinese government commenced measures to control tobacco, limiting advertising, banning smoking in many public venues, and increasing taxation. At the time of this review, there are signs that these policies are having some effect, but hundreds of millions of Chinese continue to smoke and rates of diagnosis of lung cancer continue to rise. There is much work to be done and much premature death to be suffered before the epidemic is slowed to the levels reached in Australia or the United States. This article aims to provide, particularly for practicing lung cancer clinicians, a description of patterns of smoking in China, the lung cancer epidemic there, and the stimuli for and barriers to tobacco control imposed by the highly complex and unique regulatory setting of the Chinese tobacco industry. A particular challenge in developing this description has come from the variability of studies published about a huge nation that has enormous diversity in wealth, education, urbanization, and tradition. The studies vary because the data vary. Much information on lung cancer and smoking rates in China comes, for example, from studies of cohorts that may number in the millions yet represent only a small percentage of the population and sometimes only a tiny geographic area of such a vast nation. National registry data on lung cancer in China do not yet cover even a fifth of the national population. Even so, we argue that several major trends can be identified: (1) more than 50% of men smoke regularly; (2) there are more than 300 million smokers in China; (3) almost half a million new cases of lung cancer are diagnosed in China each year; (4) secondhand smoking is a significant problem in China (as elsewhere), accounting for a high proportion of lung cancer cases among women, most of whom do not smoke; (5) corrected for age and sex, lung cancer rates in the Chinese population are as least as high as in Western countries and arguably higher; and (6) a shift over time from squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) to adenocarcinoma is occurring in parallel with that noted in Western populations. Looking to the future, measures to control tobacco in China are strengthening but remain relatively weak. The reinforcement of control is hampered by the circumstance that the tobacco industry remains a powerful state-owned monopoly that participates, through its membership of key government bodies, in the processes that oversee the implementation of tobacco control. The conflict between the government's dual responsibilities for both the production and distribution of tobacco and for the implementation of tobacco control carries inherent contradictions and bias. How long the Chinese government chooses to live with these contradictions will determine how quickly the smoking of tobacco will be reduced and how soon the burden of disease that tobacco inflicts on individuals and society as a whole will be eased.

Exploring Geographic Variability in Cancer Prevalence in Eastern Morocco: A Retrospective Study over Eight Years

BACKGROUND

Malignant diseases have been believed to be more common in some areas of Eastern Morocco, but until now, cancer patterns have not been reported for this region. In this paper we present for the first time the cancer prevalence analysis in Eastern Morocco.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study carried out among all patients diagnosed and/or treated with cancer at the Hassan II Regional Oncology Center (ROC) since it was established in October 2005 until December 2012. The ROC is the only hospital specialized in cancer care in Eastern Morocco.

RESULTS

A total of 8,508 cases of cancer were registered among residents in Eastern Morocco, with a female to male ratio of 2.1. The mean age at diagnosis was 53.9 ± 15.2 years (median age = 53 years). Thus, unlike in Western countries, cancer in Eastern Morocco afflicts younger population. The areas of Eastern Morocco did not differ significantly by mean age at diagnosis (p = 0.061). However, these regions differed significantly by sex ratio (p < 0.001). The highest sex ratio was observed in Figuig, with a female to male ratio of 3.1 (75.4% of the registered case were females), followed respectively by Taourirt, Oujda-Angad, Berkane, Nador-Driouch and Jerada. Clear variation in the distribution of cancer types between areas of Eastern Morocco was observed, both in males and females (p < 0.001). Furthermore, the areas of Eastern Morocco differed significantly by cancer prevalence (p < 0.001). The highest age-standardized five-year prevalence proportion was observed in Oujda-Angad with 420.2 per 100,000, followed respectively by Berkane (311.4), Jerada (287.8), Taourirt (269.3), Nador-Driouch (213.6) and Figuig (194.4). Trends in the five-year prevalence proportions decreased in Oujda-Angad, Berkane and Jerada throughout the study period, while an increasing trend was observed in Nador-Driouch, Taourirt and Figuig.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, our study presents the pattern and distribution of diagnosed cancers in Eastern Morocco. Our study illustrates substantial differences in cancer patterns between areas of Eastern Morocco. These findings are important for cancer control and highlight the need to develop program aiming at controlling and preventing the spread of major cancer sites in Eastern Morocco, particularly in areas with increased cancer prevalence rates.