Which indicators of early cancer diagnosis from population-based data sources are associated with short-term mortality and survival?

Future cancer risk after urgent suspected cancer referral in England when cancer is not found: a national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Following referral for investigation of urgent suspected cancer within the English National Health Service referral system, 7% of referred individuals are diagnosed with cancer. This study aimed to investigate the risk of cancer occurrence within 1-5 years of finding no cancer following an urgent suspected cancer referral.

METHODS

This national cohort study used urgent suspected cancer referral data for England from the Cancer Waiting Times dataset and linked it with cancer diagnosis data from the National Cancer Registration dataset. Data were extracted for the eight most commonly referred to urgent suspected cancer referral pathways (breast, gynaecological, head and neck, lower and upper gastrointestinal, lung, skin, and urological) for the period April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2014, with 5-year follow-up for individuals with no cancer diagnosis within 1 year of referral. The primary objective was to investigate the occurrence and type of subsequent cancer in years 1-5 following an urgent suspected cancer referral when no cancer was initially found, both overall and for each of the eight referral pathways. The numbers of subsequent cancers were compared with expected cancer incidence in years 1-5 following referral, using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) based on matched age-gender distributions of expected cancer incidence in England for the same time period. The analysis was repeated, stratifying by referral group, and by calculating the absolute and expected rate of all cancers and of the same individual cancer as the initial referral.

FINDINGS

Among 1·18 million referrals without a cancer diagnosis in years 0-1, there were 63 112 subsequent cancers diagnosed 1-5 years post-referral, giving an absolute rate of 1338 (95% CI 1327-1348) cancers per 100 000 referrals per year (1038 [1027-1050] in females, 1888 [1867-1909] in males), compared with an expected rate of 1054 (1045-1064) cancers per 100 000 referrals per year (SIR 1·27 [95% CI 1·26-1·28]). The absolute rate of any subsequent cancer diagnosis 1-5 years after referral was lowest following suspected breast cancer referral (746 [728-763] cancers per 100 000 referrals per year) and highest following suspected urological (2110 [2070-2150]) or lung cancer (1835 [1767-1906]) referral. For diagnosis of the same cancer as the initial referral pathway, the highest absolute rates were for the urological and lung pathways (1011 [984-1039] and 638 [598-680] cancers per 100 000 referrals per year, respectively). The highest relative risks of subsequent diagnosis of the same cancer as the initial referral pathway were for the head and neck pathway (SIR 3·49 [95% CI 3·22-3·78]) and lung pathway (3·00 [2·82-3·20]).

INTERPRETATION

Cancer risk was higher than expected in the 5 years following an urgent suspected cancer referral. The potential for targeted interventions, such as proactive monitoring, safety-netting, and cancer awareness or risk reduction initiatives should be investigated.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK.

A water-soluble fluorescent probe for the determination of γ-glutamyltransferase activity and its application in tumor imaging

γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT), an important tumor marker, is highly expressed in tumor tissues, and precise detection of its activity provides a vital indicator for the diagnosis and treatment. In this work, a "lighting-on" probe (TCF-GGT) was elaborated to detect endogenous GGT with high selectivity and sensitivity. Dicyanomethyldifuranyl (TCF-OH) was employed as the fluorescence reporter and short peptide glutathione (GSH) worked as the GGT-active trigger, the introduction of which prevented the initial proton transfer of TCF-OH contributing to a blank sensing background. A bright red fluorescence could be switched on upon GGT catalytic hydrolysis, avoiding the potential interference from background. There displayed an excellent water-solubility, and little organic solvent was required during the exploration, which otherwise avoided the potential damage to enzyme and organism. TCF-GGT has been proved to be workable at cellular and organism level with highly effective imaging and a short metabolic cycle, which is expected to offer an alternative solution or reference to the early diagnosis and treatment of tumor.

A scoping review on population-centered indicators for cancer care continuum

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to develop prioritized cancer indicators and measure the population-based monitoring of the entire life cycle of cancer care, guiding the improvement of care delivery systems.

Methods

Scoping review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute's methodology. Electronic databases were searched in PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Ovid Medline, RISS, KISS, and KoreaMed. The searches were limited to articles published in English between 2010 and 2020. No restrictions were applied regarding the publication status or country of origin, and all study designs were included. Gray literature was used to broaden the search's scope, identify new recommendations, need to be in connect with subject experts, and explore pertinent websites. The process and selected indicators were analyzed based on their frequency distribution and percentage.

Results

The literature search yielded 6,202 works. In addition, national and international cancer guidelines were obtained from official database reports. A total of 35 articles and 20 reports regarding cancer indicators were finally selected for data synthesis. Based on them, 254 core sets of cancer indicators were identified. The selected indicators were classified into six domains based on the continuum of cancer care and survivor's life cycle, namely, primary prevention (61, 24.0%), secondary prevention (46, 18.1%), treatment (85, 33.5%), quality of care (33, 13.0%), survivor management (33, 13.0%), and end-of-life care (14, 5.5%).

Conclusion

There is a growing interest in developing specific areas of cancer care. Cancer indicators can help organizations, care providers, and patients strive for optimal care outcomes. The identified indicators could guide future innovations by identifying weaknesses in cancer prevention and management.

Prehospital care for ovarian cancer in Catalonia: could we do better in primary care? Retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of prehospital factors (diagnostic pathways, first presentation to healthcare services, intervals, participation in primary care) on 1-year and 5-year survival in people with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC).

DESIGN

Retrospective quasi-population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Catalan Integrated Public Healthcare System.

PARTICIPANTS

People with EOC who underwent surgery with a curative intent in public Catalan hospitals between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2014.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Data from primary and secondary care clinical histories and care processes in the 18 months leading up to confirmation (signs and symptoms at presentation, diagnosis pathways, referrals, diagnosis interval) of the EOC diagnosis (stage, histology type, treatment). Diagnostic process intervals were based on the Aarhus statement. 1-year and 5-year survival analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS

Of the 513 patients included in the cohort, 67.2% initially consulted their family physician, while 36.4% were diagnosed through emergency services. In the Cox models, survival was influenced by advanced stage at 1 year (HR 3.84, 95% CI 1.23 to 12.02) and 5 years (HR 5.36, 95% CI 3.07 to 9.36), as was the type of treatment received, although this association was attenuated over follow-up. Age became significant at 5 years of follow-up. After adjusting for age, adjusted morbidity groups, stage at diagnosis and treatment, 5-year survival was better in patients presenting with gynaecological bleeding (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.79). Survival was not associated with a starting point involving primary care (HR 1.39, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.09), diagnostic pathways involving referral to elective gynaecological care from non-general practitioners (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.26), or self-presentation to emergency services (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.31).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival in EOC is not associated with diagnostic pathways or prehospital healthcare, but it is influenced by stage at diagnosis, administration of primary cytoreduction plus chemotherapy and patient age.

Multiple imputation to minimise bias from missing stage information in estimates of early cancer diagnosis in England: a population-based study

INTRODUCTION

Monitoring early diagnosis is a priority of cancer policy in England. Information on stage has not always been available for a large proportion of patients, however, which may bias temporal comparisons. We previously estimated that early-stage diagnosis of colorectal cancer rose from 32% to 44% during 2008-2013, using multiple imputation. Here we examine the underlying assumptions of multiple imputation for missing stage using the same dataset.

METHODS

Individually-linked cancer registration, Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), and audit data were examined. Six imputation models including different interaction terms, post-diagnosis treatment, and survival information were assessed, and comparisons drawn with the a priori optimal model. Models were further tested by setting stage values to missing for some patients under one plausible mechanism, then comparing actual and imputed stage distributions for these patients. Finally, a pattern-mixture sensitivity analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

Data from 196,511 colorectal patients were analysed, with 39.2% missing stage. Inclusion of survival time increased the accuracy of imputation: the odds ratio for change in early-stage diagnosis during 2008-2013 was 1.7 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.7) with survival to 1 year included, compared to 1.9 (95% CI 1.9-2.0) with no survival information. Imputation estimates of stage were accurate in one plausible simulation. Pattern-mixture analyses indicated our previous analysis conclusions would only change materially if stage were misclassified for 20% of the patients who had it categorised as late.

INTERPRETATION

Multiple imputation models can substantially reduce bias from missing stage, but data on patient's one-year survival should be included for highest accuracy.

A turn on fluorescent assay for γ-glutamyltransferase activity and its application in biological imaging

γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is widely presented in living cells and overexpressed in many tumor tissues. Therefore, it is generally considered as an important biomarker for the detection of tumor, especially for liver cancer. Accurate determination of its activity is helpful for early diagnosis and treatment of related diseases. In this work, a "turn on" fluorescent probe NSA-GGT for the detection of GGT activity based on glutamine bond was designed and synthesized by employing dansylamino as fluorophore. The probe shows good water solubility and can be well dispersed in aqueous buffer. After incubated with GGT in phosphate buffer, the fluorescence of NSA-GGT centered at ∼523 nm increased over 25-fold. This sensing pattern exhibits an intriguing sensing sensitivity for GGT, and has good performance on intracellular GGT staining, serving as a promising candidate for GGT measurement. Subsequent biological experiments showed that probe NSA-GGT could also be used for fluorescent imaging of GGT activity in living cells and animal tissues.

Accounting for Heterogeneity in Resource Allocation Decisions: Methods and Practice in UK Cancer Technology Appraisals

OBJECTIVES

The availability of novel, more efficacious and expensive cancer therapies is increasing, resulting in significant treatment effect heterogeneity and complicated treatment and disease pathways. The aim of this study is to review the extent to which UK cancer technology appraisals (TAs) consider the impact of patient and treatment effect heterogeneity.

METHODS

A systematic search of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence TAs of colorectal, lung and ovarian cancer was undertaken for the period up to April 2020. For each TA, the pivotal clinical studies and economic evaluations were reviewed for considerations of patient and treatment effect heterogeneity. The study critically reviews the use of subgroup analysis and real-world translation in economic evaluations, alongside specific attributes of the economic modeling framework.

RESULTS

The search identified 49 TAs including 49 economic models. In total, 804 subgroup analyses were reported across 69 clinical studies. The most common stratification factors were age, gender, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score, with 15% (119 of 804) of analyses demonstrating significantly different clinical outcomes to the main population; economic subgroup analyses were undertaken in only 17 TAs. All economic models were cohort-level with the majority described as partitioned survival models (39) or Markov/semi-Markov models. The impact of real-world heterogeneity on disease progression estimates was only explored in 2 models.

CONCLUSION

The ability of current modeling approaches to capture patient and treatment effect heterogeneity is constrained by their limited flexibility and simplistic nature. This study highlights a need for the use of more sophisticated modeling methods that enable greater consideration of real-world heterogeneity.

Tracking cancer occurrence in the 5 years after referral for suspected head and neck cancer

OBJECTIVES

Very little is known about those who receive a negative (benign) result after referral for suspected cancer, including their risk for future cancer. This service evaluation aimed to track the occurrence of cancer (of any type) in the 5 years after an appointment for suspected head and neck cancer (HNC) and compare to those referred to hospital for routine ear nose and throat reasons.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Patient identifiers of referrals to one hospital Trust with either a) suspected HNC cancer on a two week wait (TWW) pathway, or b) routine ear, nose & throat problems, were linked with the National Cancer Registry data to determine the occurrence, site and stage of subsequent cancer.

RESULTS

10,314 patients were referred between 2009 and 2011. Cancer occurrence in the 5 years after their appointment for those who had initially received a negative diagnosis, was 4.0% for those referred via TWW and 2.1% for those routinely referred. Lung cancer was the most common subsequent cancer site in the TWW group. Those in higher age groups, those with previous cancer, and those referred via the TWW pathway were significantly more likely be diagnosed with subsequent cancer.

CONCLUSION

Given the increased risk of subsequent cancer, it could be beneficial to improve the service provision (e.g. advice on screening attendance, ways to reduce risk, advice on timely help-seeking for symptoms of cancer) at the point of a negative diagnosis on the TWW pathway, especially in older patients and those with a previous diagnosis of cancer.

Temporal and geographic changes in stage at diagnosis in England during 2008-2013: A population-based study of colorectal, lung and ovarian cancers

BACKGROUND

Increasing diagnosis of cancer when the disease is still at early stages is a priority of cancer policy internationally. In England, reducing geographical inequalities in early diagnosis is also a key objective. Stage at diagnosis is not recorded for many patients, which may bias assessments of progress. We evaluate temporal and geographical changes in stage at diagnosis during 2008-2013 for colorectal, non-small cell lung, and ovarian cancers, using multiple imputation to minimise bias from missing data.

METHODS

Population-based data from cancer registrations, routes to diagnosis, secondary care, and clinical audits were individually linked. Patient characteristics and recorded stage were summarised. Stage was imputed where missing using auxiliary information (including patient's survival time). Logistic regression was used to estimate temporal and geographical changes in early diagnosis adjusted for case mix using a multilevel model.

RESULTS

We analysed 196,511 colorectal, 180,048 non-small cell lung, and 29,076 ovarian cancer patients. We estimate that there were very large increases in the percentage of patients diagnosed at stages I or II between 2008-09 and 2012-13: from 32% to 44% for colorectal cancer, 19% to 25% for non-small cell lung cancer, and 28% to 31% for ovarian cancer. Geographical inequalities reduced for colorectal and ovarian cancer.

INTERPRETATION

Multiple imputation is an optimal approach to reduce bias from missing data, but residual bias may be present in these estimates. Increases in early-stage diagnosis coincided with increased diagnosis through the "two week wait" pathway and colorectal screening. Epidemiological analyses from 2013 are needed to evaluate continued progress.