CT scans in childhood predict subsequent brain cancer: Finite mixture modelling can help separate reverse causation scans from those that may be causal

Computed tomography scan radiation and brain cancer incidence

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography (CT) scans make substantial contributions to low-dose ionizing radiation exposures, raising concerns about excess cancers caused by diagnostic radiation.

METHODS

Deidentified medicare records for all Australians aged 0-19 years between 1985-2005 were linked to national death and cancer registrations to 2012. The National Cancer Institute CT program was used to estimate radiation doses to the brain from CT exposures in 1985-2005, Poisson regression was used to model the dependence of brain cancer incidence on brain radiation dose, which lagged by 2 years to minimize reverse causation bias.

RESULTS

Of 10 524 842 young Australians, 611 544 were CT-exposed before the age of 20 years, with a mean cumulative brain dose of 44 milligrays (mGy) at an average follow-up of 13.5 years after the 2-year lag period. 4472 were diagnosed with brain cancer, of whom only 237 had been CT-exposed. Brain cancer incidence increased with radiation dose to the brain, with an excess relative risk of 0.8 (95% CI 0.57-1.06) per 100 mGy. Approximately 6391 (95% CI 5255, 8155) persons would need to be exposed to cause 1 extra brain cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

For brain tumors that follow CT exposures in childhood by more than 2 years, we estimate that 40% (95% CI 29%-50%) are attributable to CT Radiation and not due to reverse causation. However, because of relatively low rates of CT exposure in Australia, only 3.7% (95% CI 2.3%-5.4%) of all brain cancers are attributable to CT scans. The population-attributable fraction will be greater in countries with higher rates of pediatric scanning.

Quantitative Analysis of the Clinical Reasons Influencing the Frequency of Pediatric Head CT Examinations: A Single-Center Observation Study

Epidemiological studies on radiation exposure from pediatric CT scans have attracted attention in terms of radiological protection. These studies have not taken into account the reasons why CT examinations were performed. It is presumed that there are clinical reasons that justify more frequent CT examinations in children. The purpose of this study was to characterize the clinical reasons why relatively high numbers of head CT examinations (NHCT) are frequently performed and to conduct a statistical analysis to determine the factors governing the NHCT. Patient information, the date of examination, and medical conditions for examination data stored on the radiology information system were used to investigate the reasons for undergoing CT examinations. The target facility was National Children's Hospital; data were obtained from March 2002 to April 2017, and the age of the study population was less than 16 years old. Quantitative analysis of the factors associated with frequent examinations was conducted by Poisson regression analysis. Among all patients who had a CT scan, 76.6% had head CT examinations, and 43.4% of children were under 1 year old at the time of the initial examination. There were marked differences in the number of examinations depending on the disease. The average NHCT was higher for children younger than 5 days of age. Among children less than 1 year of age with surgery, there was a marked difference between hydrocephalus, with a mean = 15.5 (95% CI 14.3,16.8), and trauma, with a mean = 8.3 (95% CI 7.2,9.4). In conclusion, this study revealed that NHCT was significantly higher in children who had undergone surgery than in those who had not been to the hospital. The clinical reasons behind patients with higher NHCT should be considered in investigating a causal relationship between CT exposure and brain tumors.

Cohort profile: The Australian Paediatric Exposure to Radiation Cohort (Aust-PERC)

Although the carcinogenic effects of high-dose radiation are well-established, the risks at low doses, such as from diagnostic X-rays, are less well understood. Children are susceptible to radiation induced cancers, and in the last decade, several cohort studies have reported increased cancer risks following computed tomography (CT) scans in childhood. However, cohort studies can be limited by insufficient follow-up, indication bias, reverse causation, or by lack of organ doses from CT scans or other exposures. Aust-PERC is a retrospective cohort designed to study the effects of low-dose medical radiation exposure, primarily from CT scans, in young Australians. The cohort was ascertained using deidentified billing records from patients who were aged 0–19 years while enrolled in Medicare (Australia’s universal healthcare system) between 1985 and 2005. All procedures billed to Medicare in this age/time window that involved low-dose radiation were identified, and persons without such procedures were flagged as unexposed. The Aust-PERC cohort has been linked, using confidential personal identifiers, to the Australian Cancer Database and the National Death Index, on two occasions (to Dec. 2007 and Dec. 2012) by the responsible government agency (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare). Deidentified Medicare service records of all radiological procedures including CT scans, nuclear medicine (NM) scans and fluoroscopy and plain X-ray procedures have been available to derive estimated radiation doses in the cohort. Records of other medical and surgical procedures, together with demographic and socioeconomic variables are being used in analyses to assess biases arising from reverse causation and confounding. After excluding patients with errant records, 11 802 846 persons remained in the baseline cohort, with an average follow-up time of 22.3 years to December 2012. There were 275 489 patients exposed to diagnostic nuclear medicine scans and 688 363 patients exposed to CT scans before age 20 and before cancer diagnosis. Between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2012, there were 105 124 deaths and 103 505 incident cancers. Dose-response analyses based on the relevant organ doses are underway for individual cancers, and we plan to extend the follow-up for another 8 years to Dec 2020. Analyses using this very large Aust-PERC cohort, with extended follow-up, will help to resolve international uncertainties about the causal role of diagnostic medical radiation as a cause of cancer.

Impact of Reverse Causation on Estimates of Cancer Risk Associated With Radiation Exposure From Computerized Tomography: A Simulation Study Modeled on Brain Cancer

Use of computed tomography (CT) scanning has increased substantially since its introduction in the 1990s. Several authors have reported increased risk of leukemia and brain tumors associated with radiation exposure from CT scans. However, reverse causation is a concern, particularly for brain cancer; in other words, the CT scan may have been taken because of preexisting cancer and therefore not have been a cause. We assessed the possibility of reverse causation via a simulation study focused on brain tumors, using a simplified version of the data structure for recent CT studies. Five-year-lagged and unlagged analyses implied an observed excess risk per scan up to 70% lower than the true excess risk per scan, particularly when more than 10% of persons with latent cancer had increased numbers of scans or the extra scanning rate after development of latent cancer was greater than 2 scans/year; less extreme values of these parameters imply little risk attenuation. Without a lag and when more than 20% of persons with latent cancer had increased scans-an arguably implausible scenario-the excess risk per scan was increased over the true excess risk per scan by up to 35%-40%. This study suggests that with a realistic lag, reverse causation results in downwardly biased risk, a result of induced classical measurement error, and is therefore unlikely to produce a spurious positive association between cancer and radiation dose from CT scans.

Ct Dosimetry for The Australian Cohort Data Linkage Study

Children undergoing computed tomography (CT) scans have an increased risk of cancer in subsequent years, but it is unclear how much of the excess risk is due to reverse causation bias or confounding, rather than to causal effects of ionising radiation. An examination of the relationship between excess cancer risk and organ dose can help to resolve these uncertainties. Accordingly, we have estimated doses to 33 different organs arising from over 900 000 CT scans between 1985 and 2005 in our previously described cohort of almost 12 million Australians aged 0-19 years. We used a multi-tiered approach, starting with Medicare billing details for government-funded scans. We reconstructed technical parameters from national surveys, clinical protocols, regulator databases and peer-reviewed literature to estimate almost 28 000 000 individual organ doses. Doses were age-dependent and tended to decrease over time due to technological improvements and optimisation.