Prognostic value of plasma brain natriuretic peptide combined with left ventricular dimensions in predicting sudden death of patients with chronic heart failure

The GLVC scoring system: a single-center model for predicting survival and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is the only cardiovascular disease with an ever-increasing incidence.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the predictors of adverse clinical events (CE) and the creation and evaluation of the prognostic value of a novel personalized scoring system in patients with HF.

METHODS

The study included 113 HF patients (median age 64 years (IQR 58-69); 57.52% male). The new novel prognostic score named GLVC (G, global longitudinal peak strain (GLPS); L, left ventricular diastolic diameter (LVDD); V, oxygen pulse (VO2/HR); and C, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP)) was created. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to compare the CE.

RESULTS

Results from final analyses showed that low GLPS (< 13.9%, OR = 2.66, 95% CI = 1.01-4.30, p = 0.002), high LVDD (> 56 mm, OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.01-5.55, p = 0.045), low oxygen pulse (< 10, OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.17-6.70, p = 0.019), and high hs-CRP (> 2.38 µg/ml, OR = 2.93, 95% CI = 1.31-6.54, p = 0.007) were independent prognostic factors for adverse CE in HF population. All the patients were stratified into a low-risk or high-risk group according to a novel "GLVC" scoring system. The Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated that patients in the high-risk group were more predisposed to having higher adverse clinical events compared to patients in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel and comprehensive personalized "GLVC" scoring system is an easily available and effective tool for predicting the adverse outcomes in HF.

Trends in Sudden Death Following Admission for Acute Heart Failure

Few studies on sudden death (SD) after admission for acute heart failure (AHF) have been published. A total of 1,664 patients with AHF were enrolled in this study, and 1,261 patients who were successfully followed up during the first year after admission were analyzed. The primary end point was SD, which was defined as out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. The median follow-up period from admission was 1,008 days (range 408 to 2,132). In total, 505 patients (40.0%) died: 341 (67.5%) died of cardiovascular causes and 55 (10.9%) died of other causes. Of the 505 who died, 80 (15.8%) experienced SD. The proportion of SDs increased in the later phases of follow-up (0 to 1 year, 10.3%; 1 to 2 years, 18.0%; 2 to 5 years, 18.8%; ≥5 years, 28.2%; p <0.001). A multivariate logistic regression model showed that younger age was independently associated with SD (60 to 69 years: odds ratio 2.249, 95% confidence interval 1.060 to 4.722; <60 years: odds ratio 3.863, 95% confidence interval 1.676 to 8.905). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the incidence of cardiovascular death was highest during the acute phase, whereas the incidence of SD increased gradually over the entire follow-up period. In conclusion, the incidence of SD was surprisingly high in patients with AHF, accounting for 16% of long-term mortality. The proportion of SDs increased during the very late follow-up phases.

Left ventricular diameter and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death

Background

Left ventricular (LV) diameter is routinely measured on the echocardiogram but has not been jointly evaluated with the ejection fraction (EF) for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death (SCD).

Methods and Results

From a large ongoing community‐based study of SCD (The Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study; population ≈1 million), SCD cases were compared with geographic controls. LVEF and LV diameter, measured using the LV internal dimension in diastole (categorized as normal, mild, moderate, or severe dilatation using American Society of Echocardiography definitions) were assessed from echocardiograms prior but unrelated to the SCD event. Cases (n=418; 69.5±13.8 years), compared with controls (n=329; 67.7±11.9 years), more commonly had severe LV dysfunction (EF ≤35%; 30.5% versus 18.8%; P<0.01) and larger LV diameter (52.2±10.5 mm versus 49.7±7.9 mm; P<0.01). Moderate or severe LV dilatation (16.3% versus 8.2%; P=0.001) and severe LV dilatation (8.1% versus 2.1%; P<0.001) were significantly more frequent in cases. In multivariable analysis, severe LV dilatation was an independent predictor of SCD (odds ratio 2.5 [95% CI 1.03 to 5.9]; P=0.04). In addition, subjects with both EF ≤35% and severe LV dilatation had higher odds for SCD compared with those with low EF only (odds ratio 3.8 [95% CI 1.5 to 10.2] for both versus 1.7 [95% CI 1.2 to 2.5] for low EF only), suggesting that severe LV dilatation additively increased SCD risk.

Conclusion

LV diameter may contribute to risk stratification for SCD independent of the LVEF. This readily available echocardiographic measure warrants further prospective evaluation.

Do optimal prognostic thresholds in continuous physiological variables really exist? Analysis of origin of apparent thresholds, with systematic review for peak oxygen consumption, ejection fraction and BNP

Background

Clinicians are sometimes advised to make decisions using thresholds in measured variables, derived from prognostic studies.

Objectives

We studied why there are conflicting apparently-optimal prognostic thresholds, for example in exercise peak oxygen uptake (pVO₂), ejection fraction (EF), and Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) in heart failure (HF).

Data Sources and Eligibility Criteria

Studies testing pVO₂, EF or BNP prognostic thresholds in heart failure, published between 1990 and 2010, listed on Pubmed.

Methods

First, we examined studies testing pVO₂, EF or BNP prognostic thresholds. Second, we created repeated simulations of 1500 patients to identify whether an apparently-optimal prognostic threshold indicates step change in risk.

Results

33 studies (8946 patients) tested a pVO₂ threshold. 18 found it prognostically significant: the actual reported threshold ranged widely (10–18 ml/kg/min) but was overwhelmingly controlled by the individual study population's mean pVO₂ (r = 0.86, p<0.00001). In contrast, the 15 negative publications were testing thresholds 199% further from their means (p = 0.0001). Likewise, of 35 EF studies (10220 patients), the thresholds in the 22 positive reports were strongly determined by study means (r = 0.90, p<0.0001). Similarly, in the 19 positives of 20 BNP studies (9725 patients): r = 0.86 (p<0.0001).

Second, survival simulations always discovered a “most significant” threshold, even when there was definitely no step change in mortality. With linear increase in risk, the apparently-optimal threshold was always near the sample mean (r = 0.99, p<0.001).

Limitations

This study cannot report the best threshold for any of these variables; instead it explains how common clinical research procedures routinely produce false thresholds.

Key Findings

First, shifting (and/or disappearance) of an apparently-optimal prognostic threshold is strongly determined by studies' average pVO₂, EF or BNP. Second, apparently-optimal thresholds always appear, even with no step in prognosis.

Conclusions

Emphatic therapeutic guidance based on thresholds from observational studies may be ill-founded. We should not assume that optimal thresholds, or any thresholds, exist.

Review on natriuretic peptides: where we are, where we are going

BACKGROUND

Tremendous advances have been made in our understanding of the pathophysiology and treatment of congestive heart failure. However, diagnosis of the disease still remains difficult, even with a comprehensive physical examination. Symptoms such as dyspnea are nonspecific and insensitive indicators for heart failure, which can go largely undetected. Several studies have suggested the need for new diagnostic capabilities, especially with the increasing prevalence of heart failure in the US. The discovery of natriuretic peptides as diagnostic biomarkers has been one of the most critical advances for the management of heart failure. Both B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide have the potential to diagnose heart failure, assess prognostic risk of rehospitalization and mortality, and even help guide treatment. Their relative cost-effectiveness and availability have also facilitated their acceptance into many emergency departments, clinics and in-patient units as standard care when evaluating patients with suspected heart failure. Our understanding of the natriuretic peptide system is still in its infancy, but natriuretic peptides have emerged as important diagnostic and prognostic tools that have generated interest in finding broader applications for their use.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this review is to discuss the clinical approaches and future applications of natriuretic peptides in diagnosing and managing treatment of congestive heart failure.

METHOD

A comprehensive review of studies to assess the utility of natriuretic peptides for diagnosis and prognosis of heart failure and other conditions.

CONCLUSION

Natriuretic peptides are powerful tools to aid the physician in the diagnosis, prognosis and management of heart failure in both in-patient and out-patient settings. However, natriuretic peptides should be used as an adjunct test as many circumstances can also influence changes in natriuretic peptide levels.

Long-term prognostic stratification by a combination of (123)I-metaiodobenzylguanidine scintigraphy and ejection fraction in dilated cardiomyopathy

OBJECTIVE

(123)I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) scintigraphy is a useful tool for predicting the prognosis in patients with congestive heart failure; however, little is known regarding long-term prognostic evaluations. The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term prognosis in a roughly 10-year period, in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) by MIBG imaging, compared to other conventional functional parameters.

METHODS

Eighty-six DCM patients (50 ± 14 years of age, 57 males) underwent MIBG imaging, at 15 min and 4 h after tracer injection, from which the delayed heart to mediastinum ratio (H/M) and washout rate (WR) were obtained. The left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) and end-diastolic diameter (LVDd) were also measured by echocardiogram. All patients were followed up for 8-14 years, and the death event was investigated.

RESULTS

Kaplan-Meier curves revealed a poor prognosis only in the group above the third quartile of WR (=50%) (10-year prognosis, 35%); however, there were no statistically significant differences in prognosis among the other 3 groups (10-year prognosis, 75-84%). A Cox hazard univariate analysis selected WR (p = 0.0004), H/M (p < 0.0001), EF (p = 0.0024), and LVDd (p = 0.0189) as significant prognostic indicators. Multivariate analysis revealed the H/M (p = 0.0023) and EF (p = 0.024) to be an independent prognostic predictor. The 10-year prognosis of patients with both WR < 50% and EF > 30%; WR < 50% and EF < 30%; and both WR > 50% and EF < 30% were 89, 71, and 33%, respectively. These three groups were well stratified, significantly (log-rank test: χ (2) = 30.0, p < 0.0001). However, even patients with WR ≥ 50% had few death events after 3 years following MIBG imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

The MIBG parameter, delayed H/M or WR combined with the EF is a useful tool for the prediction of a long-term prognosis in DCM, which is superior to MIBG parameters alone. However, patients with WR > 50% but no event in a 3-year follow-up period should undergo an additional MIBG imaging for prognostic prediction.

Profiling B-type natriuretic peptide in a stable heart failure population: a valuable adjunct to care

AIM

To examine the prognostic importance of absolute values and change in values of BNP in patients with stable heart failure (HF).

METHODS

Five-hundred and fifty-nine patients attending a disease management programme were categorized into tertiles of BNP (group 1; ≤ 95 pg/ml, group 2; 96-249 pg/ml and group 3; ≥ 250 pg/ml). A change in BNP between two stable visits was recorded. Patients were followed up for 1 year for death and a composite morbidity measure of HF hospitalization, all-cause hospitalization, unscheduled visits for clinical deterioration(UC) of HF using survival analysis.

RESULTS

The risk of the combined morbidity outcome increased with increasing tertiles of BNP (Log rank = 17.8 (2), p < 0.001). Furthermore, a 50 and 25% increase in BNP predicted morbidity in stable HF patients with an initial BNP > 200 pg/ml (p = 0.02) and > 450 pg/ml (p = 0.03), respectively.

CONCLUSION

In a stable community HF population, an elevated BNP or an increase in BNP predicts an adverse prognosis thereby potentially identifying a population in need of closer clinical follow-up.

[New biohumoral markers of differential diagnosis in patients with suspected heart failure]

INTRODUCTION

In the regular clinic practice, the assessment of the cause of dispnea is a dilemma which has a significant implication in both the estimation of prognosis and treatment of the patient. In emergency cases, when most necessary, it is often very difficult to determine whether dispnea was caused by a heart or lung disease.

ROLE OF NATRIURETIC PEPTIDE IN PATIENTS WITH DISPNEA

An acute patient with dispnea might suffer serious consequences of inadequately established diagnosis so congestive heart failure (CHE) has to be diagnosed quickly and precisely in the ER. Unfortunately, symptoms and signs of CHF are unspecific, it is sometimes impossible to obtain an adequate anamnesis and diagnosic procedures currently applied are either insufficiently precise or provide scarce information or can not always be performed under appropriate conditions. On the basis of previous findings, it has been proved that brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) can considerably contribute to the establishment of correct diagnosis as well as to the possibility of introducing an adequate therapy for those patients. However, the real value of those peptides should be estimated in relation to other clinical manifestations and indicators and the specifics of examined patients including the age, gender and the presence or absence of pulmonary or renal diseases.

NATRIURETIC PEPTIDE IN ACCESSEMENT GRADIENT OF HEART FAILURE

Determination of natriuretic peptide has represented most probably the greatest progress in diagnosing the heart failure since the introduction of echocardiography into practice. Its high sensitivity and negative predicted value makes it a valid test for excluding congestive heart failure with a very high degree of certainty.

Soluble ST2 for predicting sudden cardiac death in patients with chronic heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction

OBJECTIVES

We studied whether the measurement of the soluble form of ST2 (sST2), an interleukin-1 receptor family member, could identify heart failure (HF) patients at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD).

BACKGROUND

The prediction of SCD remains an important challenge in patients with mild-to-moderate chronic HF. Concentrations of sST2 have been found increased and related to worse long-term outcomes in patients with acute HF. Whether sST2 has a prognostic role in SCD is unknown.

METHODS

A nested case-control study was performed on 36 cases of SCD and 63 control patients (matched for age, sex, and left ventricular ejection fraction) obtained from the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardíaca) registry, a 3-year multicenter registry of ambulatory HF patients (New York Heart Association functional class II to III, left ventricular ejection fraction < or =45%). Demographic, clinical, echocardiographic, electrical, and biochemical data were collected at enrollment.

RESULTS

Concentrations of sST2 were greater among decedents (0.23 ng/ml [interquartile range 0.16 to 0.43 ng/ml] vs. 0.12 ng/ml [interquartile range 0.06 to 0.23 ng/ml], p = 0.001) and were predictive of experiencing SCD (+0.1 ng/ml, odds ratio: 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.78, p = 0.006). On the basis of a combined biomarker status, only 4% of patients experienced SCD for neither sST2 nor N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) above receiver-operator characteristic-derived cut-off points (0.15 ng/ml and 2,000 ng/l, respectively), 34% for either biomarker above, and 71% for both biomarkers above (p < 0.001 for trend). This combined variable added incremental prognostic value to the multivariable regression model (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated sST2 concentrations are predictive of SCD in patients with chronic HF and provide complementary information to NT-proBNP levels. A combined biomarker approach may have an impact on clinical decision-making.

Chronic heart failure in Japan: implications of the CHART studies

The prognosis of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) still remains poor, despite the recent advances in medical and surgical treatment. Furthermore, CHF is a major public health problem in most industrialized countries where the elderly population is rapidly increasing. Although the prevalence and mortality of CHF used to be relatively low in Japan, the disorder has been markedly increasing due to the rapid aging of the society and the Westernization of lifestyle that facilitates the development of coronary artery disease. The Chronic Heart Failure Analysis and Registry in the Tohoku District (CHART)-1 study was one of the largest cohorts in Japan. The study has clarified the characteristics and prognosis of Japanese patients with CHF, demonstrating that their prognosis was similarly poor compared with those in Western countries. However, we still need evidence for the prevention and treatment of CHF based on the large cohort studies or randomized treatment trials in the Japanese population. Since the strategy for CHF management is now changing from treatment to prevention, a larger-size prospective cohort, called the CHART-2 study, has been initiated to evaluate the risk factors of CHF in Japan. This review summarizes the current status of CHF studies in Japan and discusses their future perspectives.

Inflammatory biomarkers are not predictive of intermediate-term risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in stable CHF patients

BACKGROUND

Elevated levels of inflammatory biomarkers and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) are associated with increased mortality in patients with heart failure (HF).

HYPOTHESIS

: The aim of the current study was to assess the correlation between circulating biomarkers and ventricular tachyarrhythmias among patients with HF.

METHODS

Blood samples from 50 stable ambulatory HF patients with moderate to severe systolic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) were analyzed for interleukin 6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and BNP. Thereafter, the patients were followed for a mean period of 152 +/- 44 days, during which ventricular tachyarrhythmias were recorded by the ICDs.

RESULTS

Follow-up data were obtained from 47 patients. Of them, 45 (96%) had ischemic cardiomyopathy, 38 (81%) had New York Heart Association class I-II, 43 (91%) were males, and the mean age was 68.6 +/- 11.1 years. During follow-up, 5 patients (11%) had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), 6 patients (13%) had sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) and 36 patients (76%) had no events. The circulating biomarkers' levels upon enrollment were not significantly different between patients who subsequently had NSVT or VT/VF and patients who were free of events.

CONCLUSIONS

No correlation was found between plasma levels of IL-6, TNF-alpha, hsCRP and BNP and ventricular arrhythmic events among stable HF patients during an intermediate term follow-up of 5.1 months. Further studies are still required to assess the association between these biomarkers and long-term risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmia.

B-type natriuretic peptide predicts adverse cardiovascular events in pediatric outpatients with chronic left ventricular systolic dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Plasma B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels are elevated in adults with heart failure and correlate with functional classification and prognosis. The range and predictive power of BNP concentrations in children with chronic heart failure, however, are not known.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Whole blood BNP concentrations were measured in 53 consecutive patients with chronic left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (biventricular hearts, ejection fraction < 50%, > 3 months since diagnosis). Children who had been hospitalized within 3 months before potential enrollment and those < 2 months or > 21 years of age were excluded. BNP concentrations were measured with the Triage assay (Biosite Diagnostics, Inc, San Diego, Calif). Echocardiographers and clinicians were blinded to BNP levels. An adverse cardiovascular event was defined as cardiac death, cardiac-related hospitalization, or listing for cardiac transplantation. The median age of patients with LV dysfunction was 9.3 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.7 to 15.1 years). BNP levels were elevated in children with LV dysfunction compared with healthy controls (median, 78 pg/mL [IQR, 22 to 551 pg/mL] versus median, 7 pg/mL [IQR, 5 to 11 pg/mL]; P < 0.0001). Whole blood BNP concentrations were increased in patients who had a 90-day adverse cardiovascular event compared with those who did not (median, 735 pg/mL [IQR, 685 to 1510 pg/mL] versus median, 37 pg/mL [IQR, 14 to 92 pg/mL]; P < 0.001). Patients with a BNP concentration > or = 300 pg/mL were at increased risk of death, hospitalization, or listing for cardiac transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 63.6; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

BNP concentrations are elevated in children with chronic LV systolic dysfunction and predict the 90-day composite end point of death, hospitalization, or listing for cardiac transplantation.

Accumulation of risk markers predicts the incidence of sudden death in patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Sudden death is common in chronic heart failure (CHF). Risk stratification is the first step for primary prevention.

AIM

To evaluate the use of risk markers for estimating sudden death risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We prospectively examined 680 stable patients with CHF. Risk markers were evaluated using the Cox's proportional hazard model in a stepwise manner. Ejection fraction <30%, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter >60 mm, brain natriuretic peptide >200 pg/ml, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and diabetes were significantly associated with increased risk of sudden death. When the number of risk markers were included as co-variables, only "number of risk markers >or=3'' entered the model (hazard ratio 8.95, 95% confidence interval 4.57-17.52), while the effects of individual markers did not enter the model. The annual mortality from sudden death was 11% in patients with 3 or more risk markers and 1.4% in patients with 2 or less.

CONCLUSIONS

Rather than particular risk markers, the number of accumulated risk markers was a more powerful predictor for sudden death in patients with CHF. The number of risk markers could be useful for risk stratification of sudden death.