Natriuretic and Inflammatory Biomarkers as Risk Predictors of Heart Failure in Middle-Aged Men From the General Population: A 21-Year Follow-Up

Prediction models for heart failure in the community: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Multivariable prediction models can be used to estimate risk of incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to determine the performance of models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From inception to 3 November 2022 MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for studies of multivariable models derived, validated and/or augmented for HF prediction in community-based cohorts. Discrimination measures for models with c-statistic data from ≥3 cohorts were pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. We included 36 studies with 59 prediction models. In meta-analysis, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) risk score (summary c-statistic 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.707-0.883), GRaph-based Attention Model (GRAM; 0.791, 95% CI 0.677-0.885), Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) white men model (0.820, 95% CI 0.792-0.843), PCP-HF white women model (0.852, 95% CI 0.804-0.895), and REverse Time AttentIoN model (RETAIN; 0.839, 95% CI 0.748-0.916) had a statistically significant 95% PI and excellent discrimination performance. The ARIC risk score and PCP-HF models had significant summary discrimination among cohorts with a uniform prediction window. 77% of model results were at high risk of bias, certainty of evidence was low, and no model had a clinical impact study.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models for estimating risk of incident HF in the community demonstrate excellent discrimination performance. Their usefulness remains uncertain due to high risk of bias, low certainty of evidence, and absence of clinical effectiveness research.

The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Diet Pattern and Incident Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet pattern has shown some promise for preventing heart failure (HF), but studies have been conflicting.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the DASH diet pattern was associated with incident HF in a large biracial and geographically diverse population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among participants in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study of adults aged ≥45 years who were free of suspected HF at baseline in 2003-2007, the DASH diet score was derived from the baseline food frequency questionnaire. The main outcome was incident HF defined as the first adjudicated HF hospitalization or HF death through December 31, 2016. We estimated hazard ratios for the associations of DASH diet score quartiles with incident HF, and incident HF with reduced ejection fraction and HF with preserved ejection fraction using the Lunn-McNeil extension to the Cox model. We tested for several prespecified interactions, including with age. Compared with the lowest quartile, individuals in the second to fourth DASH diet score quartiles had a lower risk for incident HF after adjustment for sociodemographic and health characteristics: quartile 2 hazard ratio, 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56-0.85); quartile 3 hazard ratio, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.58-0.87); and quartile 4 hazard ratio, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.92). When stratifying results by age, quartiles 2-4 had a lower hazard for incident HF among those age <65 years, quartiles 3-4 had a lower hazard among those age 65-74, and the quartiles had similar hazard among those age ≥75 years (Pinteraction = .003). We did not find a difference in the association of DASH diet with incident HF with reduced ejection fraction vs HF with preserved ejection fraction (P = .11).

CONCLUSIONS

DASH diet adherence was inversely associated with incident HF, specifically among individuals <75 years old.

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure in older men: the role of NT-proBNP

Aim:

To determine the relationship between baseline inflammation (CRP and IL-6) with natriuretic peptide (NP) activity (measured by NT-proBNP) and incident heart failure (HF) in older men.

Methods & results:

In the British Regional Heart Study, 3569 men without prevalent myocardial infarction or HF were followed for mean 16.3 years; 327 developed HF. Baseline CRP and IL-6 were significantly and positively associated with NT-proBNP. Those in the highest CRP and IL-6 quartiles had an elevated risk of HF after age and BMI adjustment (HR = 1.42 [1.01–1.98] and 1.71 [1.24–2.37], respectively), which markedly attenuated after NT-proBNP adjustment (HR = 1.15 [0.81–1.63] and 1.25 [0.89–1.75], respectively).

Conclusion:

NP activity is associated with pro-inflammatory biomarkers and may explain the link between inflammation and incident HF.

Inflammation describes the body’s natural response to infections, injuries and toxins. Inflammation is a helpful response in the short term, but it is thought that long-lasting inflammation – for example, due to illnesses such as diabetes or obesity – may have harmful effects. Previous studies have found that people with higher levels of inflammatory molecules in the blood seem to be more likely to develop heart failure (HF) later on. The amount of fluid in the body is controlled, in part, by molecules in the blood known as ‘natriuretic peptides' (NPs). People with HF have much higher levels of NPs in their blood, and these are used to help diagnose HF. There are suggestions that inflammation and natriuretic peptides are linked to one another. Using a sample of men aged 60–79 years, who did not have HF, we compared blood markers of inflammation and NPs at a baseline examination. Men with higher blood inflammatory markers tended to have higher blood NP levels. We then followed these men up for an average of 16.3 years. Men with higher blood inflammatory markers at baseline were more likely to develop HF, as expected, even after accounting for differences in age and BMI. However, when we accounted for NP levels at baseline, the increased risk of HF with inflammation disappeared. This suggests that NP activity is important in the relationship between inflammation and the risk of HF. Future studies should account for this when examining the link. It is possible that NPs or, more likely, whatever is driving their release, may explain why people with inflammation are more likely to get HF.

Asymptomatic Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Is There a Role for Screening in General Population?

Stage A and B heart failure (HF) include asymptomatic patients without and with structural cardiac disorder, respectively. Asymptomatic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction represents an early stage of HF that should be recognized to prevent overt HF development. Echocardiography plays a pivotal role in assessment of cardiac structure and function and represents the ideal imaging technique for screening in the general population, thanks to its availability, feasibility, and low cost. Traditional echocardiography, with LV systolic and diastolic function and cardiac remodeling assessment, is usually performed. Development of new technologies may offer additional information and insights in detection of early LV dysfunction.

Will the Early Use of Biomarkers Prevent the Development of Heart Failure?

Alterations in biomarkers are associated with the development and progression of heart failure. As indicated by the study of Ergatoudes and colleagues in the current issue of this journal, biomarkers may also be the first sign of increased risk of developing heart failure. Prior studies also suggest that elevations in certain biomarkers can lead to more frequent clinical surveillance and initiation of therapeutic strategies that may prevent or delay the development of heart failure.