Industrial time-series modeling via adapted receptive field temporal convolution networks integrating regularly updated multi-region operations based on PCA

Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on Adaptive SHRINKAGE Processing and Temporal Convolutional Network

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is important for improving the safety, supportability, maintainability, and reliability of modern industrial equipment. The traditional data-driven rolling bearing RUL prediction methods require a substantial amount of prior knowledge to extract degraded features. A large number of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been applied to RUL, but their shortcomings of long-term dependence and inability to remember long-term historical information can result in low RUL prediction accuracy. To address this limitation, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on adaptive shrinkage processing and a temporal convolutional network (TCN). In the proposed method, instead of performing the feature extraction to preprocess the original data, the multi-channel data are directly used as an input of a prediction network. In addition, an adaptive shrinkage processing sub-network is designed to allocate the parameters of the soft-thresholding function adaptively to reduce noise-related information amount while retaining useful features. Therefore, compared with the existing RUL prediction methods, the proposed method can more accurately describe RUL based on the original historical data. Through experiments on a PHM2012 rolling bearing data set, a XJTU-SY data set and comparison with different methods, the predicted mean absolute error (MAE) is reduced by 52% at most, and the root mean square error (RMSE) is reduced by 64% at most. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptive shrinkage processing method, combined with the TCN model, can predict the RUL accurately and has a high application value.

A Short-Term Hybrid TCN-GRU Prediction Model of Bike-Sharing Demand Based on Travel Characteristics Mining

This paper proposes an accurate short-term prediction model of bike-sharing demand with the hybrid TCN-GRU method. The emergence of shared bicycles has provided people with a low-carbon, green and healthy way of transportation. However, the explosive growth and free-form development of bike-sharing has also brought about a series of problems in the area of urban governance, creating a new opportunity and challenge in the use of a large amount of historical data for regional bike-sharing traffic flow predictions. In this study, we built an accurate short-term prediction model of bike-sharing demand with the bike-sharing dataset from 2015 to 2017 in London. First, we conducted a multidimensional bike-sharing travel characteristics analysis based on explanatory variables such as weather, temperature, and humidity. This will help us to understand the travel characteristics of local people, will facilitate traffic management and, to a certain extent, improve traffic congestion. Then, the explanatory variables that help predict the demand for bike-sharing were obtained using the Granger causality with the entropy theory-based MIC method to verify each other. The Multivariate Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model were integrated to build the prediction model, and this is abbreviated as the TCN-GRU model. The fitted coefficient of determination R2 and explainable variance score (EVar) of the dataset reached 98.42% and 98.49%, respectively. Meanwhile, the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were at least 1.98% and 2.4% lower than those in other models. The results show that the TCN-GRU model has strong efficiency and robustness. The model can be used to make short-term accurate predictions of bike-sharing demand in the region, so as to provide decision support for intelligent dispatching and urban traffic safety improvement, which will help to promote the development of green and low-carbon mobility in the future.