Association Between Level of Fibrosis, Rather Than Antiviral Regimen, and Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

Risk assessment of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma development using vibration-controlled transient elastography: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) can assess fibrotic burden in chronic liver diseases. The systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine whether LSM using VCTE can predict the risk of development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of the Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases (from January 2010 to June 2023) was conducted. Of the 1,345 individual studies identified, 10 studies that used VCTE were finally registered. Hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were considered summary estimates of treatment effect sizes of ≥11 kilopascal (kPa) standard for HCC development. Meta-analysis was performed using the restricted Maximum Likelihood random effects model.

RESULTS

Among the ten studies, data for risk ratios for HCC development could be obtained from nine studies. When analyzed for the nine studies, the HR for HCC development was high at 3.33 (95% CI, 2.45-4.54) in CHB patients with a baseline LSM of ≥11 kPa compared to patients who did not. In ten studies included, LSM of ≥11 kPa showed the sensitivity and specificity for predicting HCC development were 61% (95% CI, 50-71%) and 78% (95% CI, 66-86%), respectively, and the diagnostic accuracy was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.70-0.77).

CONCLUSION

The risk of HCC development was elevated in CHB patients with VCTE-determined LSM of ≥11 kPa. This finding suggests that VCTE-determined LSM values may aid the risk prediction of HCC development in CHB patients.

Dynamic evaluation of liver fibrosis to assess hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving nucleoside analogs treatment

Despite good hepatitis B virus (HBV) inhibition by nucleoside analogs (NAs), cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still occur. This study proposed a non-invasive predictive model to assess HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving NAs treatment. Data were obtained from a hospital-based retrospective cohort registered on the Platform of Medical Data Science Academy of Chongqing Medical University, from 2013 to 2019. A total of 501 patients under NAs treatment had their FIB-4 index updated semiannually by recalculation based on laboratory values. Patients were divided into three groups based on FIB-4 index values: < 1.45, 1.45-3.25, and ≥ 3.25. Subsequently, HCC incidence was reassessed every six months using Kaplan-Meier curves based on the updated FIB-4 index. The median follow-up time of CHB patients after receiving NAs treatment was 2.5 years. HCC incidences with FIB-4 index < 1.45, 1.45-3.25, and ≥ 3.25 were 1.18%, 1.32%, and 9.09%, respectively. Dynamic assessment showed that the percentage of patients with FIB-4 index < 1.45 significantly increased semiannually (P < 0.001), and of patients with FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 significantly decreased (P < 0.001). HCC incidence was the highest among patients with FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25. The FIB-4 index effectively predicted HCC incidence, and its dynamic assessment could be used for regular surveillance to implement early intervention and reduce HCC risk.

Fibrotic Burden in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis Is Independently Associated With Poorer Kidney Outcomes

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether higher fibrotic burden was independently associated with poorer kidney outcomes in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 1691 patients with radiologically diagnosed HBV-related cirrhosis but without baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) who underwent transient elastography (TE) between March 2012 and August 2018 were selected. The study outcome was the composite of development of incident CKD, defined as the occurrence of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/minute/1.73 m2 or proteinuria (≥1+ on dipstick test) on 2 consecutive measurements during follow-up, 50% decline in eGFR or onset of end-stage kidney disease (initiation of chronic dialysis), or all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The mean age was 53.4 years and 1030 (60.9%) patients were male. During 8379 person-years of follow-up (median 5.2 years), 60 (3.5%) patients experienced study outcomes. When stratified according to TE-defined fibrotic burden, multivariable Cox models revealed that risk of poorer kidney outcomes was 2.77-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.16-6.63; P < .001) higher in patients with liver stiffness range indicating cirrhosis (≥11.7 kPa), compared to those without significant liver fibrosis (<7.9 kPa). These associations remained significant even after adjusting for vigorous confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher fibrotic burden assessed using TE was independently associated with poorer kidney outcomes in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.

Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.

Fibrosis-4 index, a predictor for prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after curative hepatectomy even in hepatitis B virus dominant populations

Purpose

Liver fibrosis plays an important role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and determining its prognosis. Although many staging systems and liver reserve models have been developed without the intention of predicting prognosis of HCC, some studies have investigated their prognostic values in HCC after curative liver resection (LR). The aim of this study is to evaluate prognostic value of non-invasive biomarkers after curative LR.

Methods

Between 2006 and 2013, HCC patients underwent LR were included and total 962 patients were enrolled. All non-invasive biomarkers (fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), AAR-to-platelet ratio index (AARPRI), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score) were measured at the time of HCC diagnosis. To binarize each biomarker, an optimal cut-off value for fibrosis stage was selected using the value of minimum distance from the left-upper corner of the receiver operating characteristic curve with a specificity >60%. We performed Cox regression analysis on 2-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

Results

The area under curve values for FIB-4 and APRI were the largest for fibrosis stage compared to other biomarkers, 0.669 (95% confidential interval (CI), 0.610-0.719) and 0.748 (95% CI, 0.692-0.800), respectively. Between those two indices, FIB-4 is considered a statistically significant prognostic factor of RFS in HCC patients after LR. The HR for 2-year RFS and OS were 1.81 (95% CI, 1.18-2.77; P = 0.007) and 2.36 (95% CI, 0.99-5.65; P = 0.054), respectively.

Conclusion

FIB-4 is identified as a statistically significant predictor of HCC prognosis after curative LR even in HBV dominant populations.

Evaluation of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with 2D shear wave elastography with propagation map guidance: a single-centre study

Background

The aims of this study were to evaluate liver fibrosis with two-dimensional (2D) shear wave elastography (SWE) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), to compare 2D-SWE with histopathology and to determine the change in liver stiffness values after antiviral therapy.

Material and methods

A total of 253 patients with CHB were included in this prospective study. 2D-SWE with propagation map guidance to measure liver stiffness, fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) scoring and additional liver biopsy were performed in patients with CHB. Liver stiffness was measured again at 24 and 48 weeks in all patients. The Spearman rank correlation test was used to analyse the correlation between variables, and receiver operating curve analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance in terms of fibrosis.

Results

Liver stiffness measurements made with 2D-SWE demonstrated a significant positive correlation with the fibrosis stage and FIB-4 score (r_s = 0.774 and 0.337, respectively, p < 0.001 for both). The area under the curve value for kPa for the prediction of significant fibrosis was 0.956 (95% CI_s) (0.920–0.991), and the optimal cut-off value was 8.2 kPa (sensitivity: 92.7% and specificity: 78.9%); these values were 0.978 (95% CI_s, 0.945–1.000) and 10.1 kPa (sensitivity: 92.9% and specificity: 96.4%) for the prediction of severe fibrosis. After antiviral treatment, a decrease in liver stiffness values measured by 2D-SWE was detected (mean kPa values at 0 and 48 weeks; 9.24 and 7.36, respectively, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

In conclusion, the measurement of liver stiffness with 2D-SWE has high diagnostic performance in the determination of hepatic fibrosis and can be used to evaluate the response to treatment in patients receiving antiviral therapy.

Risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related events using ultrasonography and transient elastography in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Cirrhosis has prognostic value. We investigated whether the combined use of ultrasonography (US) and transient elastography (TE) to diagnose cirrhosis is beneficial for the risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). A total of 9300 patients with CHB who underwent US and TE in two institutions between 2006 and 2018 were enrolled. TE value ≥13 kPa was set to indicate cirrhosis. Patients were divided into four groups: US(+)TE(+) (cirrhosis by US and TE), US(+)TE(-) (cirrhosis by US, but not by TE), US(-)TE(+) (cirrhosis by TE, but not by US) and US(-)TE(-) (non-cirrhosis by US and TE).The patients were predominantly male (n = 5474, 58.9%) with a mean age of 47.5 years. The proportions of patients with cirrhosis diagnosed by US and TE were 17.2% (n = 1595) and 13.2% (n = 1225), respectively. The proportion of patients with discordant results in diagnosing cirrhosis by US and TE was 18.7% (n = 1740). During follow-up (median: 60.0 months), HCC and liver-related events developed in 481 (5.2%) and 759 (8.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative incidence rates of HCC and liver-related events were highest in the US(+)TE(+) group, intermediate-high in the US(-)TE(+) group, intermediate-low in the US(+)TE(-) group and lowest in the US(-)TE(-) group (overall p < .001). Cirrhosis assessed using US and TE was a major predictor of HCC and liver-related event development in patients with CHB. Cirrhosis assessed using TE seemed better in predicting HCC or liver-related events than using US, when cirrhosis diagnosis was discordant by US and TE.

Clinical usefulness of noninvasive fibrosis indices for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B following entecavir therapy

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and modified FIB-4 (mFIB-4) indices in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients receiving entecavir (ETV) treatment.

METHODS

Among 1955 patients treated with ETV, a total of 857 treatment-naive chronic hepatitis B patients (424 with liver cirrhosis [LC], 433 without cirrhosis) treated with ETV for more than 1 year were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of the 857 patients, 85 (9.9%) patients (77 in the LC group and 8 in the non-LC group) developed HCC during the follow-up period. The median observation period was 6.9 years. Multivariate regression analysis of HCC incidence revealed that the initial mFIB-4 index (hazard ratio [HR] 1.058; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.007-1.112; p = 0.027) and improvement in the FIB-4 index after 1 year of ETV treatment (HR 0.531; 95% CI, 0.339-0.831; p = 0.006) were independent prognostic factors in the entire cohort. In the LC group, the improvement of the FIB-4 index following ETV treatment (HR 0.491; 95% CI, 0.280-0.861; p = 0.013) was negatively correlated with incidence of HCC. However, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of specific cut-off values of the FIB-4 index at baseline and 1 year after ETV treatment were 0.572 (95% CI, 0.504-0.640) and 0.615 (95% CI, 0.546-0.684), respectively. In the non-LC group, none of the invasive fibrosis indices could predict HCC incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The specific cut-off value of the FIB-4 index was not suitable for predicting HCC. However, the improvement in the FIB-4 index after 1 year of ETV therapy could be a predictor of HCC development in cirrhotic patients.

External validation of CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores for Asian chronic hepatitis B patients with well-controlled viremia by antivirals

CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores, consisting of age and fibrotic burden as cirrhosis and/or liver stiffness, were recently proposed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk among Caucasian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients undergoing long-term antiviral therapy. We externally validated their predictive performances among an independent cohort from Asia, compared to other conventional prediction models. We consecutively recruited CHB patients with well-controlled viremia (serum HBV DNA < 2000 IU/mL) receiving antiviral therapy. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at baseline were excluded. Among 1763 patients, CAGE-B score provided the highest Heagerty's integrated area under the curve (iAUC) (0.820), followed by SAGE-B (0.804), mREACH-B (0.800), CAMD (0.786), mPAGE-B (0.748) and PAGE-B (0.721) scores. CAGE-B score showed a significantly better performance than SAGE-B, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores, but was similar to mREACH-B. SAGE-B score also showed significantly better performance than mPAGE-B and PAGE-B, but was similar to CAMD and mREACH-B. According to CAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, the annual HCC incidences were 0.18, 1.34 and 6.03 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Likewise, by SAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, those were 0.31, 1.49 and 8.96 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Hence, CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores showed acceptable predictive performances for Asian CHB patients undergoing antiviral therapy, with the higher performance by CAGE-B score. They show a trend towards better prognostic capability to predict HCC risk than previous models.

Comparable Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated with Entecavir or Tenofovir

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Adherence to medication and maintained virologic response (MVR) are related to the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to compare the efficacy of entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in relation to the adverse clinical outcomes among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients stratified according to adherence to medication and MVR.

METHODS

A total of 1794 treatment-naive CHB patients treated with ETV (n = 894) or TDF (n = 900) for > 1 year were identified.

RESULTS

Adherence rates were significantly higher in the TDF than in the ETV (93.4% vs. 89.1%, respectively; P < 0.001). The MVR of ETV and TDF were 64.5% and 71.7%, respectively (P = 0.001). The MVR of ETV and TDF in the good adherence group were 72.1% and 76.4%, respectively (P = 0.083); in the poor adherence group, the MVR of ETV and TDF were 63.0% and 54.0%, respectively (P = 0.384) Multivariate analysis showed that the risk of HCC and death or transplantation was similar between groups (HR 0.826, 95% CI 0.522-1.306; P = 0.413 and HR 0.636, 95% CI 0.258-1.569; P = 0.325, respectively) after adjusting for adherence to medication and MVR. In the 589 propensity-matched pairs of patients, risk of HCC and death or transplantation was similar between treatment groups after stratification according to adherence rates and MVR.

CONCLUSIONS

After adjustment for adherence and MVR, ETV, and TDF did not differ in terms of the risk of HCC and death or transplantation in all patients and propensity score-matched cohorts.

Effectiveness of entecavir in preventing hepatocellular carcinoma development is genotype-dependent in hepatitis B virus-associated liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The oral nucleos(t)ide analogue, entecavir (ETV) was demonstrated to reduce the rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated liver cirrhosis. However, the reduction of HCC differs in various regions of the world.

AIM

To investigate the reduction of HCC development due to ETV therapy by meta-analysis.

METHODS

We surveyed the differences in HCC development following ETV treatment based on published articles using PubMed (2004-2019).

RESULTS

The regions with the most marked reduction in HCC development due to ETV therapy were Spain (1.0%/year) and Canada (Southern part, 1.3%/year), and the most ineffective areas were South Korea (3.6%-3.8%/year), China (3.3%/year), Taiwan (2.4%-3.1%/year), and Hong Kong (2.8%/year). Following ETV administration, the incidence of HCC in genotype D regions (1.89% ± 0.28%/year, mean ± SE) was significantly lower than that in genotype C regions (2.91% ± 0.24%/year, P < 0.01). With regard to the initial HBV-DNA level, in genotype C patients (average: 5.61 Log₁₀IU/mL) this was almost the same as that in genotype D patients (average: 5.46 Log₁₀IU/mL). Moreover, there was no association between the prevalence ratio of HBV and the incidence of HCC on ETV treatment.

CONCLUSION

The effectiveness of ETV in preventing HCC development in HBV-associated liver cirrhosis is genotype-dependent.

Validation of risk prediction scores for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir or tenofovir

Several prediction scores for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are available. We validated the predictive accuracy of age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis (AASL), RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). Between 2007 and 2014, 3171 patients were recruited (1645, ETV; 1517, TDF). The predictive accuracy of each prediction score was assessed. The mean age of the study population (1977 men; 1194 women) was 48.8 years. Liver cirrhosis was present in 1040 (32.8%) patients. During follow-up (median, 58.2 months), 280 (8.8%) patients developed HCC; these patients were significantly older; more likely to be male; had significantly higher proportions of liver cirrhosis, hypertension and diabetes; and had significantly higher values for the four risk scores than those who did not develop HCC (all P < .05). Older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.048), male sex (HR = 2.142), liver cirrhosis (HR = 3.144) and prolonged prothrombin time (HR = 2.589) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC (all P < .05), whereas a higher platelet count (HR = 0.996) was independently associated with a decreased risk of HCC (P < .05). The predictive accuracy of AASL score was the highest for 3- and 5-year HCC predictions (areas under the curve [AUCs] = 0.818 and 0.816, respectively), followed by RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores (AUC = 0.780-0.815 and 0.769-0.814, respectively). In conclusion, four HCC prediction scores were assessed in Korean CHB patients treated with ETV or TDF. The AASL score showed the highest predictive accuracy.

Negligible risks of hepatocellular carcinoma during biomarker-defined immune-tolerant phase for patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background/Aims

The immune-tolerant (IT) phase of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is not generally indicative of antiviral therapy (AVT). We assessed and compared the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during the IT-phase stringently defined by a low fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, compared to that in patients undergoing AVT.

Methods

Among 125 untreated patients that were hepatitis B e-antigen positive, hepatitis B virus-DNA >20,000 IU/mL, with normal alanine aminotransferase level from 2012 to 2018, those with a FIB-4 index of <1.45 were classified into the IT-group. The cumulative probability of HCC was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. All patients were assessed until HCC development (intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis), whereas those suspected of experiencing CHB phase switch were assessed using the per-protocol (PP) and censored at the time of phase switch.

Results

The cumulative probability of HCC at 1-, 3-, and 5-years among the IT-group was zero, compared to AVT-treated patients with FIB-4 indices <1.45 during the same period: 0.2%, 0.6%, and 1.4%, respectively (P=0.264 for ITT and P=0.533 for PP). Among the initially screened 125 untreated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to the IT-group (P=0.005). Furthermore, among AVT-treated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to their counterpart (P<0.001).

Conclusions

The risk of HCC was negligible in the IT-group stringently defined by a low FIB-4 index. However, given that a higher HCC risk exists among untreated patients with higher FIB-4, appropriate criteria for AVT should be established.

Predictive score for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis B e antigen loss in patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir

The risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatitis B e antigen seroclearance (ESC) remains unclear. We established and validated a new risk prediction model for HCC development after ESC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). Between 2006 and 2016, 769 patients (training cohort) and 1,061 patients (validation cohort) with CHB who experienced ESC during AVT using entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were recruited. In the multivariate analysis, male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.092; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.152-3.800), cirrhosis (HR = 5.141; 95% CI = 2.367-11.167) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) of >3.25 (HR = 2.070; 95% CI = 1.184-3.620) were the independent risk factors for HCC development (all P < .05). Accordingly, a novel HCC-ESC_AVT model was developed (1x[sex: male = 1, female = 0] + 3x(cirrhosis = 1, noncirrhosis = 0) + 1x(FIB-4: >3.25 = 1, ≤3.25 = 0). The cumulative risk for HCC development was significantly different among the risk groups based on the HCC-ESC_AVT category (0-1, 2-4 and 5 for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively) (overall P < .001, log-rank test). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting HCC development 3, 5 and 10 years after ESC was 0.791, 0.771 and 0.790, respectively (all P < .05). The predictive value of the HCC-ESC_AVT model was similar in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.802, 0.774 and 0.776 at 3, 5 and 10 years, respectively; all P < .05). Hence, we have developed and validated a new HCC-ESC_AVT model for HCC development, which includes male sex, cirrhosis and FIB-4 of >3.25 as constituent variables.

Real-World Effectiveness From the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV Risk Score for the Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated With Oral Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

Patients on oral antiviral (OAV) therapy remain at hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. Risk prediction tools distinguishing treated patients with residual HCC risk are limited. The aim of this study was to develop an accurate, precise, simple-to-use HCC risk score using routine clinical variables among a treated Asian cohort.

METHODS

Adult Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients on OAV were recruited from 25 centers in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. Excluded persons were coinfected with hepatitis C, D, or human immunodeficiency virus, had HCC before or within 1 year of study entry, or their follow-up was <1 year. Patients were randomized to derivation and validation cohorts on a 2:1 ratio. Statistically significant predictors from multivariate modeling formed the Real-world Effectiveness from the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV (REAL-B) score.

RESULTS

A total of 8048 patients were randomized to the derivation (n = 5365) or validation group (n = 2683). The REAL-B model included 7 variables (male gender, age, alcohol use, diabetes, baseline cirrhosis, platelet count, and alpha fetoprotein), and scores were categorized as follows: 0-3 low risk, 4-7 moderate risk, and 8-13 high risk. Area under receiver operating characteristics were >0.80 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, and these were significantly higher than other risk models (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The REAL-B score provides 3 distinct risk categories for HCC development in Asian CHB patients on OAV guiding HCC surveillance strategy.

Extremely low risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B in immune-tolerant phase

BACKGROUND

Anti-viral therapy is not indicated for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the immune-tolerant phase.

AIMS

To investigate the cumulative incidence of phase change and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and independent predictors for phase change in patients with CHB in immune-tolerant phase.

METHODS

In total, 946 patients in immune-tolerant phase, defined as hepatitis B e antigen positivity, HBV-DNA >20 000 IU/mL and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≤40 IU/L, between 1989 and 2017 were enrolled from eight institutes.

RESULTS

The mean age of study population (429 men and 517 women) was 36.7 years. The mean ALT and HBV-DNA levels were 24.6 IU/L and 8.50 log₁₀ IU/mL, respectively. Of the study population, 476 (50.3%) patients remained in immune-tolerant phase throughout the study period (median: 63.6 months). The cumulative incidence rates of phase change and HCC at 10 years were 70.7% and 1.7%, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that HBV-DNA level >10⁷  IU/mL was associated independently with a reduced risk of phase change (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.734, P = 0.008), whereas a high ALT level, above the cut-off recommended in the Korean Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines (34 IU/L for men and 30 IU/L for women), was associated independently with a greater risk of phase change (HR = 1.885, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The criterion of HBV-DNA level > 10⁷  IU/mL may be useful to define immune-tolerant phase. In addition, an extremely low risk of HCC development was observed in patients with CHB in immune-tolerant phase.

Diagnostic Performance of Serum Asialo-α1-acid Glycoprotein for Advanced Liver Fibrosis or Cirrhosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B or Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Background/Aims

The utility of asialo-α1-acid glycoprotein (AsAGP) for assessing the fibrotic burden is unknown. This study examined the diagnostic performance of the AsAGP level for advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Methods

From July to December 2018, 48 patients with CHB and 75 with NAFLD were recruited prospectively. Transient elastography was used as the reference standard for liver fibrosis, and the cutoff liver stiffness values were defined as 10.0 kilopascal (kPa) for ≥F3 and 12.0 kPa for F4 in CHB patients, and 9.0 kPa for ≥F3 and 11.8 kPa for F4 in NAFLD patients.

Results

To predict stage ≥F3 and F4 fibrosis, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the AsAGP level in patients with CHB were 0.788 (95% CI 0.647-0.930; p=0.005) and 0.825 (95% CI 0.674-0.976; p=0.004), respectively. The cutoff AsAGP levels in patients with CHB that maximized the sum of the sensitivity and specificity values were 1.31 (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 52.6%) and 1.55 (sensitivity 75.0%, specificity 80.0%), respectively. In contrast, the AsAGP level was similar regardless of the fibrosis stage in patients with NAFLD (all p>0.05 between the stages).

Conclusions

The AsAGP level showed acceptable diagnostic accuracy in predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with CHB but not in those with NAFLD. Further studies will be needed to validate the diagnostic performance of the AsAGP level in patients with NALFD.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Sarcopenia Are Independently Associated With Cardiovascular Risk

OBJECTIVES

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and sarcopenia have a close association with an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). This study investigated the influence of NAFLD and sarcopenia on ASCVD risk.

METHODS

Data from the 2008-2011 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys database were analyzed (n = 7,191). The sarcopenia index was calculated using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Sarcopenia was defined as the lowest quintile sarcopenia index value (cutoffs = 0.882 for men and 0.582 for women). NAFLD was defined as a comprehensive NAFLD score ≥40. Liver fibrosis was assessed using the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. ASCVD risk was evaluated using American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. High probability of ASCVD was defined as ASCVD risk >10%.

RESULTS

The prevalence rates of NAFLD and sarcopenia were 31.2% (n = 2,241) and 19.5% (n = 1,400), respectively. The quartile-stratified ASCVD risk scores were positively associated with NAFLD and sarcopenia (all P for trend < 0.001). Subjects with both NAFLD and sarcopenia had a higher risk for high probability of ASCVD (odds ratio = 1.83, P = 0.014) compared with controls without NAFLD and sarcopenia. Among subjects with NAFLD, FIB-4-defined significant liver fibrosis and sarcopenia additively raised the risk for high probability of ASCVD (odds ratio = 3.56, P < 0.001) compared with controls without FIB-4-defined significant liver fibrosis or sarcopenia.

DISCUSSION

NAFLD and sarcopenia were significantly associated with an increased risk of ASCVD in the general population. In addition, NAFLD with significant liver fibrosis and sarcopenia were significantly associated with an increased risk of ASCVD in subjects with NAFLD.

Sarcopenia assessed using bioimpedance analysis is associated independently with significant liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases

AIM

Sarcopenia is common in patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. We investigated the correlation between sarcopenia and other clinical variables, in particular, significant liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases (CLDs).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with CLDs who underwent transient elastography (TE) and bioelectrical impedance analysis between 2015 and 2017 were retrospectively recruited. The sarcopenia index (SI) was calculated as follows: SI = total appendicular skeletal muscle mass (kg)/ body mass index (BMI) (kg/m). Sarcopenia was defined as SI less than 0.789 for men and less than 0.521 for women. Significant liver fibrosis and fatty liver were defined using TE liver stiffness value more than 7 kPa and controlled attenuation parameter more than 250 dB/m, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 2168 patients recruited, 218 (10.1%) had sarcopenia. Age, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, fasting glucose, aspartate aminotransferase, and liver stiffness value were correlated positively with sarcopenia (all P < 0.05), whereas male sex, viral etiology, obesity (BMI > 25 kg/m), total bilirubin, and serum albumin were correlated negatively with sarcopenia (all P < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, TE-defined significant liver fibrosis was associated independently with sarcopenia (odds ratio = 1.597; 95% confidence interval: 1.174-2.172; P = 0.003), together with age, male sex, viral etiology, and TE-defined fatty liver (all P < 0.05). Among the subgroups with ultrasonography-defined nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 957), sarcopenia was also associated independently with TE-defined significant liver fibrosis (odds ratio = 1.887; 95% confidence interval: 1.261-2.823; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Sarcopenia is associated independently with significant liver fibrosis in patients with CLDs. Further studies are required to determine whether interventions to improve muscle mass can improve liver fibrosis.

Predictive validation of qualitative fibrosis staging in patients with chronic hepatitis B on antiviral therapy

The fibrosis in chronic hepatitis shows dynamic changes during antiviral therapy (AVT). We investigated whether P-I-R (progressive vs. indeterminate vs. regressive) staging is predictive of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) taking AVT who underwent resection. Patients with CHB-related HCC who underwent curative resection between 2004 and 2017 and had received ≥2 years AVT at the time of resection were eligible. Two pathologists performed P-I-R staging. In total, 104 patients with CHB-related HCC were enrolled. The mean age of the study population was 56.3 years. The mean duration of AVT at the time of resection was 62.6 months. During the follow-up period (mean, 45.5 months), 20 (19.2%) and 14 (13.5%) patients developed early and late recurrence of HCC, respectively. The cumulative incidence of late recurrence was significantly lower in patients with regressive patterns than in those with indeterminate and progressive patterns according to P-I-R staging (P = 0.015, log-rank test), although the cumulative incidence of overall recurrence according to P-I-R staging was similar. Hepatitis B virus DNA levels (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.200, P = 0.020) and the regressive P-I-R staging pattern (HR = 0.127, P = 0.047) independently predicted the risk of late recurrence. One-time assessment of the P-I-R staging at the time of curative resection in patients with CHB-related HCC receiving AVT independently predicted late HCC recurrence. Therefore, qualitative fibrosis assessment by P-I-R staging might be useful in predicting the outcomes of patients with CHB undergoing AVT.

External validation of the modified PAGE-B score in Asian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) score comprising age, gender, platelet count and albumin was recently proposed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients undergoing antivirals. Here, in the independent cohort, we externally validated the predictive performance of the mPAGE-B score and compared it with those of conventional HCC prediction models.

METHODS

We consecutively recruited CHB patients treated with lamivudine, entecavir or tenofovir as the first-line antiviral regimen. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at baseline were excluded. Predictive performances of the mPAGE-B score and other models were assessed with comparison.

RESULTS

Among 1330 patients, 9.6% developed HCC during follow-up. The mPAGE-B score provided the highest Harrell's c-index (0.769), followed by the GAG-HCC (0.751), PAGE (0.744), REACH-B (0.686) and CU-HCC (0.618) scores. The mPAGE-B score showed the similar performance to the PAGE-B and GAG-HCC scores and the better performance than the REACH-B and CU-HCC scores. Cumulative HCC probabilities at 5- and 7-years were 0.0% and 0.0% in low-risk group (mPAGE-B score ≤ 8), 6.1% and 10.8% in intermediate-risk group (mPAGE-B score 9-12) and 18.7% and 26.7% in high-risk group (mPAGE-B score ≥ 13) respectively (both P < 0.001 between adjacent two groups). C-indices of the mPAGE-B score were 0.785 and 0.724 among subgroups treated with entecavir or tenofovir (n = 1011) and with lamivudine (n = 319), respectively, which are overall similar to those of the PAGE-B score.

CONCLUSION

The mPAGE-B score showed acceptable predictive performances. Compared to the PAGE-B score, addition of albumin as a constituent provided the marginal benefit.

Liver Cirrhosis, Not Antiviral Therapy, Predicts Clinical Outcome in Cohorts with Heterogeneous Hepatitis B Viral Status

Background/Aims

Antiviral therapy (AVT) reduces the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This multicenter retrospective study investigated the effects of AVT and hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related factors on the risk of HCC development in a cohort with heterogeneous HBV status.

Methods

A total of 1,843 patients with CHB from two institutions were included in this study. Ultrasound and laboratory tests, including the α-fetoprotein test, were conducted regularly to detect HCC development.

Results

The mean age of our study population (1,063 men and 780 women) was 49.4 years. Cirrhosis was identified in 617 patients (33.5%). During follow-up (median, 42.5 months), 81 patients developed HCC (1.39% per person-year). A total of 645 patients (35.0%) received ongoing AVT at enrollment. Ongoing AVT was not significantly associated with the risk of HCC development (all p>0.05). HBV-related variables (HBV DNA level, hepatitis B e antigen status, and alanine aminotransferase level) were also not significantly associated with the risk of HCC development (all p>0.05). In contrast, cirrhosis was significantly associated with the risk of HCC development, regardless of adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio=4.098 to 7.020; all p<0.05). Cirrhosis significantly predicted the risk of HCC development in subgroups with and without ongoing AVT at enrollment, regardless of adjustment.

Conclusions

Our study showed that cirrhosis, not AVT and HBV-related variables, was associated with HCC development in a cohort of patients with heterogeneous HBV status. Our results may help clinicians apply individualized surveillance strategies according to fibrotic status in patients with CHB.

Serum M2BPGi level and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after oral anti-viral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is an emerging biomarker for risk prediction of liver disease, but data remain sparse for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who are treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA).

AIM

To clarify serial changes in M2BPGi and its association with subsequent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in NA-treated CHB patients.

METHODS

We enrolled 384 previously untreated CHB patients who received NAs. Among them, 195 had baseline cirrhosis (n = 142:48:5 for Child A:B:C). Sera were collected at NA initiation, and after 1 and 2 years. Serum M2BPGi levels were measured and expressed as cut-off index (COI) at different time points. The association between M2BPGi and HCC was evaluated by the Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

The median M2BPGi levels significantly decreased from 1.68 COI at baseline, to 1.0 at year 1, and 0.88 at year 2. During median follow-up of 72.7 months, HCC occurred in 37 patients, 36 of whom had cirrhosis. In patients with cirrhosis, baseline M2BPGi level was associated with HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07 per COI; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14) on the multivariable Cox analysis, whereas levels at year 1 or 2 were not independently predictive. A risk score for HCC was developed using baseline M2BPGi, age and body mass index with c statistics of 0.77, 0.79 and 0.87 at 3, 5 and 10 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum M2BPGi level significantly decreases after NA treatment in CHB patients. Baseline level can be factored into the risk prediction of HCC in NA-treated patients with cirrhosis.

Modified PAGE-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Asians with chronic hepatitis B on antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recently, the PAGE-B score and Toronto HCC risk index (THRI) have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to validate PAGE-B scores and THRI in Asian patients with CHB and suggested modified PAGE-B scores to improve the predictive performance.

METHODS

From 2007 to 2017, we examined 3,001 Asian patients with CHB receiving entecavir/tenofovir therapy. We assessed the performances of PAGE-B, THRI, CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, and REACH-B for HCC development. A modified PAGE-B score (mPAGE-B) was developed (derivation set, n = 2,001) based on multivariable Cox models. Bootstrap for internal validation and external validation (validation set, n = 1,000) were performed.

RESULTS

The five-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 6.6% and 7.2% in the derivation and validation datasets after entecavir/tenofovir onset. In the derivation dataset, age, gender, serum albumin levels, and platelet counts were independently associated with HCC. The mPAGE-B score was developed based on age, gender, platelet counts, and serum albumin levels (time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves [AUROC] = 0.82). In the validation set, the PAGE-B and THRI showed similar AUROCs to CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, and REACH-B at five years (0.72 and 0.73 vs. 0.70, 0.71, and 0.61 respectively; all p >0.05 except REACH-B), whereas the AUROC of mPAGE-B at five years was 0.82, significantly higher than the five other models (all p <0.01). HCC incidence rates after initiation of entecavir/tenofovir therapy in patients with CHB were significantly decreased in all risk groups in long-term follow-up periods.

CONCLUSION

Although PAGE-B and THRI are applicable in Asian patients with CHB receiving entecavir/tenofovir therapy, mPAGE-B scores including additional serum albumin levels showed better predictive performance than the PAGE-B score.

LAY SUMMARY

PAGE-B scores and Toronto HCC risk index were developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Caucasian patients with CHB under potent antiviral therapy. This study validated these two scores in Asian patients with CHB and suggested that modified PAGE-B scores could improve the predictive performance. A modified PAGE-B score, which is based only on a patient's age, gender, baseline platelet counts, and serum albumin levels at treatment initiation, represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first five years of antiviral treatment in Asian patients with CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 21 points, a modified PAGE-B score differentiates the HCC risk. A modified PAGE-B score significantly differentiates the five-year HCC risk: low ≤8 points and high ≥13 points.

Sarcopenia is associated with the risk of significant liver fibrosis in metabolically unhealthy subjects with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is significantly associated with the degree of liver fibrosis. This study investigated the influence of sarcopenia on liver fibrosis in individuals with chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

Data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2008-2011 were analysed. The sarcopenia index (total appendicular skeletal muscle mass [kg]/body mass index [kg/m² ]) was calculated using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Sarcopenia was defined as the lowest quintile sarcopenia index value (cut-offs: 0.89 for men and 0.58 for women). The fibrotic burden was assessed using the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score and fibrosis-4 index. Significant fibrosis was defined as the highest nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score quartile and a fibrosis-4 index ≥2.67.

RESULTS

Among the 506 respondents with chronic hepatitis B (258 men and 248 women), the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score and fibrosis-4 index identified sarcopenia and significant fibrosis in 126 (24.9%) and 217 (42.9%), respectively. Sarcopenia was significantly associated with significant fibrosis, regardless of the fibrosis prediction model used (all P < 0.05). When the study population was stratified according to metabolic factors, sarcopenia was specifically associated with an increased risk of significant fibrosis among subgroups with obesity, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and liver steatosis (odds ratio 2.37-3.57; all P < 0.05). An independent association between sarcopenia and significant fibrosis was identified after adjusting for other confounders (odds ratio 2.67-3.62 by the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score and 2.04-2.62 by the fibrosis-4 index; all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia is associated with significant fibrosis in subjects with chronic hepatitis B, specifically those with obesity, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and liver steatosis.

Temporal trend and risk determinants of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients on entecavir or tenofovir

This study aimed to elucidate the temporal change and determinants for the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B continuously receiving NUC. Through analysis of the national healthcare database in Taiwan, we screened a total of 65 426 infected patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir for at least 3 months and excluded those with lamivudine, adefovir or telbivudine exposure, malignancy, end-stage renal failure or a diagnosis of HCC within 3 months of starting treatment. Eligible patients (N = 27 820) were followed until HCC occurrence, completion of the allowed 3-year regimen or 31 December 2013. During a median follow-up of 25.1 (12.1-35.6) months, 802 patients developed HCC, with 1-, 2- and 3-year cumulative incidence of 1.82% (95% CI, 1.66-1.99%), 3.05% (95% CI, 2.82-3.28%) and 4.06% (95% CI, 3.77-4.36%), respectively. HCC annual incidence decreased with an adjusted IRR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.66-0.80) per yearly interval and was associated with cirrhosis (IRR, 10.07; 95% CI, 6.00-16.90 in age <40 years; 4.69; 95% CI, 3.94-5.59 in age ≧40 years), age (IRR, 3.38; 95% CI, 2.10-5.47 for 40-50 years; 6.92; 95% CI, 4.27-11.21 for 50-60 years; 12.50; 95% CI, 7.71-20.25 for ≧60 years; <40 years as reference), male sex (IRR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.44-2.04), HCV coinfection (IRR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.02-1.58) and diabetes (IRR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.45). In conclusion, the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving entecavir or tenofovir declines over time and is determined by cirrhosis, age, male sex, HCV coinfection and diabetes.

Longitudinal monitoring of liver fibrosis status by transient elastography in chronic hepatitis B patients during long-term entecavir treatment

The correlation between improvement in longitudinal liver stiffness and fibrosis regression has not been properly evaluated during long-term antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. In this study, liver stiffness was serially performed by FibroScan^® every 26 weeks in a prospective cohort of CHB patients receiving entecavir. Results were compared with liver biopsies at baseline and week 78. A total of 120 treatment-naïve CHB patients were analyzed, in which 54 (45%) patients had fibrosis regression at 78 weeks of antiviral therapy. Liver stiffness measurement presented as a rapid-to-slow decline pattern and decreased more significantly in patients with fibrosis regression than those without improvement in fibrosis at week 78 (- 46.4 vs. - 28.6%, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that percentage decline of 52-week and 78-week liver stiffness from baseline was independent predictive factors for fibrosis regression (OR = 46.6, P < 0.001; OR = 17.8, P = 0.002, respectively). Moreover, percentage decline of 78-week liver stiffness was moderately predictive of fibrosis regression (AUROC = 0.694, P < 0.001), while the optimal cutoff values were different between non-cirrhosis and cirrhosis patients (38 vs. 45%). Fibrosis regression could be predicted with a high positive predictive value (96%) in non-cirrhosis patients and could be excluded with a high negative predictive value (94%) in cirrhosis patients. In conclusion, serial liver stiffness measurement could be applied for longitudinal monitoring of fibrosis status in CHB patients. Continuous decline of liver stiffness after effective antiviral treatment could partially reflect fibrosis regression at an optimal cutoff value.

Feasibility of dynamic risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. We explored whether the use of risk prediction models can dynamically predict HCC development at different time points in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.

METHODS

Between 2006 and 2014, 1397 CHB patients were recruited. All patients underwent serial transient elastography at intervals of >6 months.

RESULTS

The median age of this study population (931 males and 466 females) was 49.0 years. The median CU-HCC, REACH-B, LSM-HCC and mREACH-B score at enrolment were 4.0, 9.0, 10.0 and 8.0 respectively. During the follow-up period (median, 68.0 months), 87 (6.2%) patients developed HCC. All risk prediction models were successful in predicting HCC development at both the first liver stiffness (LS) measurement (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.067-1.467 in the subgroup without antiviral therapy [AVT] and 1.096-1.458 in the subgroup with AVT) and second LS measurement (HR = 1.125-1.448 in the subgroup without AVT and 1.087-1.249 in the subgroup with AVT). In contrast, neither the absolute nor percentage change in the scores from the risk prediction models predicted HCC development (all P > .05). The mREACH-B score performed similarly or significantly better than did the other scores (AUROCs at 5 years, 0.694-0.862 vs 0.537-0.875).

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic prediction of HCC development at different time points was achieved using four risk prediction models, but not using the changes in the absolute and percentage values between two time points. The mREACH-B score was the most appropriate prediction model of HCC development among four prediction models.

Progress in non-invasive detection of liver fibrosis

Liver fibrosis is an important pathological precondition for hepatocellular carcinoma. The degree of hepatic fibrosis is positively correlated with liver cancer. Liver fibrosis is a series of pathological and physiological process related to liver cell necrosis and degeneration after chronic liver injury, which finally leads to extracellular matrix and collagen deposition. The early detection and precise staging of fibrosis and cirrhosis are very important for early diagnosis and timely initiation of appropriate therapeutic regimens. The risk of severe liver fibrosis finally progressing to liver carcinoma is >50%. It is known that biopsy is the gold standard for the diagnosis and staging of liver fibrosis. However, this method has some limitations, such as the potential for pain, sampling variability, and low patient acceptance. Furthermore, the necessity of obtaining a tissue diagnosis of liver fibrosis still remains controversial. An increasing number of reliable non-invasive approaches are now available that are widely applied in clinical practice, mostly in cases of viral hepatitis, resulting in a significantly decreased need for liver biopsy. In fact, the non-invasive detection and evaluation of liver cirrhosis now has good accuracy due to current serum markers, ultrasound imaging, and magnetic resonance imaging quantification techniques. A prominent advantage of the non-invasive detection and assessment of liver fibrosis is that liver fibrosis can be monitored repeatedly and easily in the same patient. Serum biomarkers have the advantages of high applicability (>95%) and good reproducibility. However, their results can be influenced by different patient conditions because none of these markers are liver-specific. The most promising techniques appear to be transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography because they provide reliable results for the detection of fibrosis in the advanced stages, and future developments promise to increase the reliability and accuracy of the staging of hepatic fibrosis. This article aims to describe the recent progress in the development of non-invasive assessment methods for the staging of liver fibrosis, with a special emphasize on computer-aided quantitative and deep learning methods.

Validation of PAGE-B model in Asian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A new hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model, PAGE-B, which includes age, gender and platelet count as constituent variables, has recently been proposed in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients. We validated PAGE-B model and compared its accuracy with that of conventional risk prediction models in Asian chronic hepatitis B patients.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir were consecutively recruited. The performance of PAGE-B and three conventional risk prediction models (CU-HCC, GAG-HCC and REACH-B) were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 1092 chronic hepatitis B patients (668 men, 61.2%) were selected between August 2006 and January 2015. The mean age was 48 years. During the follow-up period (median, 43.6 months), 36 (3.3%) patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma. Older age (hazard ratio [HR]=1.077), male gender (HR=3.676) and lower platelet count (HR=0.984) were independent predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma development. The PAGE-B showed similar area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to GAG-HCC and CU-HCC at 3 years (0.777 vs 0.793 and 0.743, respectively; all P>.05) and 5 years (0.799 vs 0.803 and 0.744, respectively; all P>.05), whereas the AUROCs of PAGE-B were significantly higher than those of the REACH-B (0.602 at 3 years and 0.572 at 5 years, P<.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that PAGE-B is applicable to Asian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving ETV or TDF therapy. The PAGE-B showed similar predictive performance to GAG-HCC and CU-HCC.

Validation of risk prediction models for the development of HBV-related HCC: a retrospective multi-center 10-year follow-up cohort study

Recently, modified REACH-B (mREACH-B) risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was proposed. We validated the accuracy of the mREACH-B model and compared its accuracy with those of other prediction models. Between 2006 and 2012, 1,241 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were recruited. All patients underwent transient elastography at enrollment. The median age of the study population (840 males, 401 females) was 49 years. The median PAGE-B, LSM-HCC, and mREACH-B values were 10, 10, and 8, respectively. Among patients without cirrhosis (n = 940, 75.7%), the median REACH-B value was 9. During the follow-up period (median 77.4 months), 66 (5.3%) and 83 (6.7%) patients developed HCC and liver-related events (LRE), respectively. Higher liver stiffness (LS) independently predicted HCC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.047) and LRE development (HR = 1.047) (all P < 0.05). The mREACH-B significantly predicted HCC (AUC = 0.824 at 3-year and 0.750 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.782 at 3-year and 0.739 at 5-year) (all P < 0.001) and it performed similarly or significantly better than the PAGE-B and LSM-HCC (AUC = 0.715-0.809 at 3-year and 0.719-0.742 at 5-year for HCC; AUC = 0.704-0.777 at 3-year and 0.721-0.735 at 5-year for LRE). Among patients without cirrhosis, mREACH-B predicted HCC (AUC = 0.803 vs. 0.654-0.816 at 3-year and 0.684 vs. 0.639-0.738 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.734 vs. 0.619-0.789 at 3-year and 0.674 vs. 0.626-0.729 at 5-year) similarly to PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC. mREACH-B appropriately predicted HCC and LRE development in patients with CHB and showed similar or superior accuracy to those of PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC.

The assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B under antiviral therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a primary concern for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Antiviral therapy has been reasonably the focus of interest for HCC prevention, with most studies reporting on the role of the chronologically preceding agents, interferon-alfa and lamivudine. The impact of interferon-alfa on the incidence of HCC is clearer in Asian patients and those with compensated cirrhosis, as several meta-analyses have consistently shown HCC risk reduction, compared to untreated patients. Nucleos(t)ide analogues also seem to have a favorable impact on the HCC incidence when data from randomized or matched controlled studies are considered. Given that the high-genetic barrier agents, entecavir and tenofovir, are mainly used in CHB because of their favorable effects on the overall long-term outcome of such patients, the most clinically important challenge is the identification of patients who require close HCC surveillance despite on-therapy virological remission. Several risk scores have been developed for HCC prediction in CHB patients. Most of them, such as GAG-HCC, CU-HCC and REACH-B, have been developed and validated in Asian untreated and treated CHB patients, but they do not seem to offer good predictability in Caucasian CHB patients for whom a newer score, PAGE-B, has been recently developed.