Development and Validation of a Clinical Decision Support Tool That Incorporates Pharmacokinetic Data to Predict Endoscopic Healing in Patients Treated With Infliximab

How close are we to a success stratification tool for improving biological therapy in ulcerative colitis?

INTRODUCTION

Biological therapies have become the standard treatment for ulcerative colitis (UC). However, clinical remission rates post-induction therapy remain modest at 40-50%, with many initial responders losing response over time. Current treatment strategies frequently rely on a 'trial and error' approach, leading to prolonged periods of ineffective and costly therapies for patients, accompanied by associated treatment complications.

AREA COVERED

This review discusses current evidence on risk stratification tools for predicting therapeutic efficacy and minimizing adverse events in UC management. Recent studies have identified predictive factors for biologic therapy response. In the context of personalized medicine, the goal is to identify patients at high risk of progression and complications, as well as those likely to respond to specific therapies. Essential risk stratification tools include clinical decision-making aids, biomarkers, genomics, multi-omics factors, endoscopic, imaging, and histological assessments.

EXPERT OPINION

Employing risk stratification tools to predict therapeutic response and prevent treatment-related complications is essential for precision medicine in the biological management of UC. These tools are necessary to select the most suitable treatment for each individual patient, thereby enhancing efficacy and safety.

Diagnosis and management of inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic and relapsing immune-mediated disease of the gastrointestinal tract with a gradually increasing global incidence and prevalence. A prolonged course of IBD leads to a decline in patient quality of life and the creation of a substantial economic burden on society. Owing to the lack of specific diagnostic markers, the diagnosis of IBD still needs a gold standard based on a combination of clinical manifestations, imaging, laboratory, and endoscopic results. Accordingly, the current goals of IBD treatment are to alleviate clinical symptoms and reduce recurrence rates. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a standard set of procedures to diagnose and treat IBD. In this review, we summarize prominent and emerging studies, outline classical and contemporary approaches to diagnosing and managing IBD, and integrate multiple guidelines. Furthermore, we propose the possibility of establishing an early and comprehensive diagnostic workflow and personalized management strategy in the future. We aim to enhance the quality and standardization of diagnostic and treatment procedures for IBD.

Therapeutic drug monitoring in inflammatory bowel diseases. Position statement of the Spanish Working Group on Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis

The treatment of inflammatory bowel disease has undergone a significant transformation following the introduction of biologic drugs. Thanks to these drugs, treatment goals have evolved from clinical response and remission to more ambitious objectives, such as endoscopic or radiologic remission. However, even though biologics are highly effective, a significant percentage of patients will not achieve an initial response or may lose it over time. We know that there is a direct relationship between the trough concentrations of the biologic and its therapeutic efficacy, with more demanding therapeutic goals requiring higher drug levels, and inadequate exposure being common. Therapeutic drug monitoring of biologic medications, along with pharmacokinetic models, provides us with the possibility of offering a personalized approach to treatment for patients with IBD. Over the past few years, relevant information has accumulated regarding its utility during or after induction, as well as in the maintenance of biologic treatment, in reactive or proactive strategies, and prior to withdrawal or treatment de-escalation. The aim of this document is to establish recommendations regarding the utility of therapeutic drug monitoring of biologics in patients with inflammatory bowel disease, in different clinical practice scenarios, and to identify areas where its utility is evident, promising, or controversial.

Precision medicine in inflammatory bowel diseases

Inflammatory bowel diseases comprising Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis have emerged as global diseases. Multiple distinct therapeutic mechanisms have allowed us to increase our rates of achieving remission and reducing permanent disease-related morbidity. However, there is limited data to inform relative positioning of different therapies. This review will summarize existing literature on use of clinical decision models to inform relative efficacy of one therapeutic mechanism compared to the other given individual patient characteristics. It will also demonstrate the value of serologic, transcriptomic (from biopsies), and microbiome-based biomarkers in identifying which therapy is most likely to work for a given patient. We will review the existing gaps in the literature in this field and suggest a path forward for future studies to better inform patient care, incorporating the principles of precision medicine in the management of inflammatory bowel disease.

Predictive models assessing the response to ustekinumab highlight the value of therapeutic drug monitoring in Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND

Despite the therapeutic efficacy of Ustekinumab (UST) in Crohn's disease (CD), loss of response (LOR) is observed over time. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the UST pharmacokinetics (PK) at induction on clinical and endoscopic outcomes, as well as to find predictive markers of UST response.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 80 CD patients. Pharmacokinetics data (trough levels (TLs)) combined with clinical and biological parameters were fed into tailored logistic regression and tree-based ensemble techniques to predict clinical and endoscopic outcomes at one year of follow-up.

RESULTS

TLs at week 16 were significantly lower among patients with moderate to severe endoscopic activity during the follow-up (p = 0.04). The best model to predict endoscopic outcome was obtained at week 16 by Random Forest with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 ± 0.08, sensitivity 91% and specificity 75%, with key inputs such as lymphocyte and monocyte counts at week 8, and UST TLs and CRP at week 16.

CONCLUSIONS

This real-world study confirms the relationship between early UST TLs and both clinical and endoscopic outcomes. Models were developed for the task of predicting clinical and endoscopic remission in CD patients treated with UST, highlighting the clinical relevance of UST TLs at week 16.

Prognostication in inflammatory bowel disease

Personalized care in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) hinges on parsing the heterogeneity of IBD patients through prognostication of their disease course and therapeutic response to allow for tailor-made treatment and monitoring strategies to optimize care. Herein we review the currently available predictors of outcomes in IBD and those on the both near and far horizons. We additionally discuss the importance of worldwide collaborative efforts and tools to support clinical use of these prognostication tools.

How Do We Predict a Patient's Disease Course and Whether They Will Respond to Specific Treatments?

Gastroenterologists will be all too familiar with the difficult decisions that managing inflammatory bowel disease often presents. How aggressively should I treat this patient? Do I expect them to have a mild or aggressive form of disease? Do they need a biologic? If so, which one? And when should I start it? The reality is that the answers that would be right for one patient might be disastrous for another. The growing therapeutic armamentarium will only make these decisions more difficult, and yet, we have seen how other specialties have begun to use the molecular heterogeneity in their diseases to provide some answers. Here, we review the progress that has been made in predicting the future for any given patient with inflammatory bowel disease-whether that is the course of disease that they will experience or whether or not they will respond to, or indeed tolerate, a particular therapy.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of biologics in inflammatory bowel disease: unmet needs and future perspectives

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) has emerged as a useful tool for optimising the use of biologics, and in particular anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy, in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, challenges remain and are hindering the widespread implementation of TDM in clinical practice. These barriers include identification of the optimal drug concentration to target, the lag time between sampling and results, and the proper interpretation of anti-drug antibody titres among different assays. Solutions to overcome these barriers include the harmonisation of TDM assays and the use of point-of-care testing. Other unmet needs include well designed prospective studies and randomised controlled trials focusing on proactive TDM, particularly during induction therapy. Future studies should also investigate the utility of TDM for biologics other than anti-TNF therapies in both IBD and other immune-mediated inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis, and the use of pharmacokinetic modelling dashboards and pharmacogenetics towards individual personalised medicine.

A Clinical Prediction Model to Determine Probability of Response to Certolizumab Pegol for Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND

Certolizumab pegol (CZP) is effective for moderately to severely active Crohn's disease (CD). Higher plasma concentrations are associated with better outcomes and increased drug clearance is the driver of subtherapeutic CZP concentrations.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a prediction model incorporating predicted CZP clearance and patient variables to allow estimation of the probability for remission prior to initiating therapy.

METHODS

A population pharmacokinetic model estimated baseline CZP clearance in patients with CD from nine phase II and III trials. Multivariable prediction models were developed and validated using the PRECiSE 1 and PRECiSE 2 datasets to identify candidate predictors for a composite remission outcome (Crohn's Disease Activity Index ≤ 150 and fecal calprotectin concentration ≤ 250 μg/g) at Weeks 6 or 26. An online clinical decision support tool (CDST) was developed.

RESULTS

Baseline predicted CZP clearance ≥ 0.5 L/day was associated with subtherapeutic Week 6 CZP plasma concentrations. Baseline weight (odds ratio [OR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.07), calculated CZP clearance (OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.96), hematocrit (OR 2.55; 95% CI 1.43-4.54), and fecal calprotectin (OR 0.66; 95% CI 0.54-0.80) were associated with Week 6 remission (p ≤ 0.0015 for all predictors). Baseline weight (OR 1.04; 95% CI 1.02-1.07), calculated CZP clearance (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.88-0.97), and Patient-Reported Outcome-2 (PRO2) (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-0.99) were associated with Week 26 remission (p ≤ 0.033 for all predictors).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who are predicted to have accelerated baseline CZP clearance are at risk of subtherapeutic CZP concentrations. Patient-level probabilities for a composite remission outcome can be predicted for patients with CD by entering commonly available patient- and disease-related factors into an online CDST ( https://premedibd.com ) incorporating predicted CZP clearance.

Precision Medicine in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) describes a heterogenous group of diseases characterized by chronic inflammation of the intestinal tract. The IBD subtypes, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, and IBD-Unspecified, each have characteristic features, but heterogeneity remains even among the subtypes. There has been an explosion of new knowledge on the possible pathogenesis of IBD over the last 2 decades mirroring innovation and refinement in technology, particularly the generation of large scale - "-omic" data. This knowledge has fostered a veritable renaissance of novel diagnostics, prognostics, and therapeutics, with patients with IBD seeing hope bloom in the increasingly large armamentarium of IBD therapies. However, while there are increased numbers of therapies and more pathways being targeted, the number of medications for IBD is still finite and the efficacy has reached a plateau. Precision medicine (PM) is much needed to rationally select and optimize IBD therapies in the new reality of wider but still limited choice with a concurrent, increasingly fine resolution on the significance and utility of clinical, genetic, microbial, and proteomic characteristics that define individual patients. PM is a rapidly changing art, but this review will strive to detail the current state and future directions of PM in pediatric IBD.

A Comprehensive Literature Review and Expert Consensus Statement on Therapeutic Drug Monitoring of Biologics in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of biologics is a rapidly evolving field. We aimed to provide a consensus statement regarding the clinical utility of TDM for biologics in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). A modified Delphi method was applied to develop consensus statements. A comprehensive literature review was performed regarding TDM of biologic therapies in IBD, and 45 statements were subsequently formulated on the potential application of TDM in IBD. The statements, along with literature, were then presented to a panel of 10 gastroenterologists with expertise in IBD and TDM who anonymously rated them on a scale of 1-10 (1 = strongly disagree and 10 = strongly agree). An expert consensus development meeting was held virtually to review, discuss, refine, and reformulate statements that did not meet criteria for agreement or that were ambiguous. During the meeting, additional statements were proposed. Panelists then confidentially revoted, and statements rated ≥7 by 80% or more of the participants were accepted. During the virtual meeting, 8 statements were reworded, 7 new statements were proposed, and 19 statements were rerated. Consensus was finally reached in 48/49 statements. The panel agreed that reactive TDM should be used for all biologics for both primary nonresponse and secondary loss of response. It was recommended that treatment discontinuation should not be considered for infliximab or adalimumab until a drug concentration of at least 10-15 μg/mL was achieved. Consensus was also achieved regarding the utility of proactive TDM for anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy. It was recommended to perform proactive TDM after induction and at least once during maintenance. Consensus was achieved in most cases regarding the utility of TDM of biologics in IBD, specifically for reactive and proactive TDM of anti-tumor necrosis factors.

Approach to the Management of Recently Diagnosed Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A User's Guide for Adult and Pediatric Gastroenterologists

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), including Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, are chronic, progressive, immune-mediated diseases of adults and children that have no cure. IBD can cause significant morbidity and lead to complications such as strictures, fistulas, infections, and cancer. In children, IBD can also result in growth impairment and pubertal delays. IBD is highly heterogenous, with severity ranging from mild to severe and symptoms ranging from mild to debilitating. Delay in IBD diagnosis, especially in Crohn's disease, is common and associated with adverse outcomes. Early diagnosis and prompt institution of treatment are the cornerstones for improving outcomes and maximizing health. Early diagnosis requires a low threshold of suspicion and red flags to guide early specialist referral at the primary provider level. Although the armamentarium of IBD medications is growing, many patients will not respond to treatment, and the selection of first-line therapy is critical. Risk stratification of disease severity, based on clinical, demographic, and serologic markers, can help guide selection of first-line therapy. Clinical decision support tools, genomics, and other biomarkers of response to therapy and risk of adverse events are the future of personalized medicine. After starting appropriate therapy, it is important to confirm remission using objective end points (treat to target) with continued control of inflammation with adjustment of therapy using surrogate biomarkers (tight control). Lastly, IBD therapy extends far beyond medications, and other aspects of the overall health and wellbeing of the patient are critical. These include preventive health, nutrition, and psychobehavioral support addressing patients' concerns around complementary therapy and medication adherence, prevention of disability, and ensuring open communication.