Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Natural History: Role of Mathematical Modeling

On a deterministic mathematical model which efficiently predicts the protective effect of a plant extract mixture in cirrhotic rats

In this work, we propose a mathematical model that describes liver evolution and concentrations of alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase in a group of rats damaged with carbon tetrachloride. Carbon tetrachloride was employed to induce cirrhosis. A second groups damaged with carbon tetrachloride was exposed simultaneously a plant extract as hepatoprotective agent. The model reproduces the data obtained in the experiment reported in [Rev. Cub. Plant. Med. 22(1), 2017], and predicts that using the plants extract helps to get a better natural recovery after the treatment. Computer simulations show that the extract reduces the damage velocity but does not avoid it entirely. The present paper is the first report in the literature in which a mathematical model reliably predicts the protective effect of a plant extract mixture in rats with cirrhosis disease. The results reported in this manuscript could be used in the future to help in fighting cirrhotic conditions in humans, though more experimental and mathematical work is required in that case.