Assessing the ambient air quality patterns associated to the COVID-19 outbreak in the Yangtze River Delta: A random forest approach

An enhanced approach for predicting air pollution using quantum support vector machine

The essence of quantum machine learning is to optimize problem-solving by executing machine learning algorithms on quantum computers and exploiting potent laws such as superposition and entanglement. Support vector machine (SVM) is widely recognized as one of the most effective classification machine learning techniques currently available. Since, in conventional systems, the SVM kernel technique tends to sluggish down and even fail as datasets become increasingly complex or jumbled. To compare the execution time and accuracy of conventional SVM classification to that of quantum SVM classification, the appropriate quantum features for mapping need to be selected. As the dataset grows complex, the importance of selecting an appropriate feature map that outperforms or performs as well as the classification grows. This paper utilizes conventional SVM to select an optimal feature map and benchmark dataset for predicting air quality. Experimental evidence demonstrates that the precision of quantum SVM surpasses that of classical SVM for air quality assessment. Using quantum labs from IBM's quantum computer cloud, conventional and quantum computing have been compared. When applied to the same dataset, the conventional SVM achieved an accuracy of 91% and 87% respectively, whereas the quantum SVM demonstrated an accuracy of 97% and 94% respectively for air quality prediction. The study introduces the use of quantum Support Vector Machines (SVM) for predicting air quality. It emphasizes the novel method of choosing the best quantum feature maps. Through the utilization of quantum-enhanced feature mapping, our objective is to exceed the constraints of classical SVM and achieve unparalleled levels of precision and effectiveness. We conduct precise experiments utilizing IBM's state-of-the-art quantum computer cloud to compare the performance of conventional and quantum SVM algorithms on a shared dataset.

Enhanced Air Quality Prediction Using a Coupled DVMD Informer-CNN-LSTM Model Optimized with Dung Beetle Algorithm

Accurate prediction of air quality is crucial for assessing the state of the atmospheric environment, especially considering the nonlinearity, volatility, and abrupt changes in air quality data. This paper introduces an air quality index (AQI) prediction model based on the Dung Beetle Algorithm (DBO) aimed at overcoming limitations in traditional prediction models, such as inadequate access to data features, challenges in parameter setting, and accuracy constraints. The proposed model optimizes the parameters of Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and integrates the Informer adaptive sequential prediction model with the Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory (CNN-LSTM). Initially, the correlation coefficient method is utilized to identify key impact features from multivariate weather and meteorological data. Subsequently, penalty factors and the number of variational modes in the VMD are optimized using DBO. The optimized parameters are utilized to develop a variationally constrained model to decompose the air quality sequence. The data are categorized based on approximate entropy, and high-frequency data are fed into the Informer model, while low-frequency data are fed into the CNN-LSTM model. The predicted values of the subsystems are then combined and reconstructed to obtain the AQI prediction results. Evaluation using actual monitoring data from Beijing demonstrates that the proposed coupling prediction model of the air quality index in this paper is superior to other parameter optimization models. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreases by 13.59%, the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) decreases by 7.04%, and the R-square (R2) increases by 1.39%. This model surpasses 11 other models in terms of lower error rates and enhances prediction accuracy. Compared with the mainstream swarm intelligence optimization algorithm, DBO, as an optimization algorithm, demonstrates higher computational efficiency and is closer to the actual value. The proposed coupling model provides a new method for air quality index prediction.

Key drivers of the oxidative potential of PM2.5 in Beijing in the context of air quality improvement from 2018 to 2022

The mass concentration of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) has been continuously decreasing in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. However, health endpoints do not exhibit a linear correlation with PM mass concentrations. Thus, it is urgent to clarify the prior toxicological components of PM to further improve air quality. In this study, we analyzed the long-term oxidative potential (OP) of water-soluble PM2.5, which is generally considered more effective in assessing hazardous exposure to PM in Beijing from 2018 to 2022 based on the dithiothreitol assay and identified the crucial drivers of the OP of PM2.5 based on online monitoring of air pollutants, receptor model, and random forest (RF) model. Our results indicate that dust, traffic, and biomass combustion are the main sources of the OP of PM2.5 in Beijing. The complex interactions of dust particles, black carbon, and gaseous pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide) are the main factors driving the OP evolution, in particular, leading to the abnormal rise of OP in Beijing in 2022. Our data shows that a higher OP is observed in winter and spring compared to summer and autumn. The diurnal variation of the OP is characterized by a declining trend from 0:00 to 14:00 and an increasing trend from 14:00 to 23:00. The spatial variation in OP of PM2.5 was observed as the OP in Beijing is lower than that in Shijiazhuang, while it is higher than that in Zhenjiang and Haikou, which is primarily influenced by the distribution of black carbon. Our results are of significance in identifying the key drivers influencing the OP of PM2.5 and provide new insights for advancing air quality improvement efforts with a focus on safeguarding human health in Beijing.

Predicting ambient PM2.5 concentrations via time series models in Anhui Province, China

Due to rapid expansion in the global economy and industrialization, PM2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) pollution has become a key environmental issue. The public health and social development directly affected by high PM2.5 levels. In this paper, ambient PM2.5 concentrations along with meteorological data are forecasted using time series models, including random forest (RF), prophet forecasting model (PFM), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the RF model outperformed the PFM and ARIMA in the prediction of PM2.5 concentrations, with cross-validation coefficients of determination R2, RMSE, and MAE values of 0.83, 10.39 µg/m3, and 6.83 µg/m3, respectively. PFM achieved the average results (R2 = 0.71, RMSE = 13.90 µg/m3, and MAE = 9.05 µg/m3), while the predicted results by ARIMA are comparatively poorer (R2 = 0.64, RMSE = 15.85 µg/m3, and MAE = 10.59 µg/m3) than RF and PFM. These findings reveal that the RF model is the most effective method for predicting PM2.5 and can be applied to other regions for new findings.

Global production patterns: Understanding the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture greening and climate variability

Climate change due to increased greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the atmosphere has been consistently observed since the mid-20th century. The profound influence of global climate change on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, encompassing carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), has established a vital feedback loop that contributes to further climate change. This intricate relationship necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the underlying feedback mechanisms. By examining the interactions between global climate change, soil, and GHG emissions, we can elucidate the complexities of CO2, CH4, and N2O dynamics and their implications. In this study, we evaluate the global climate change relationship with GHG globally in 246 countries. We find a robust positive association between climate and GHG emissions. By 2100, GHG emissions will increase in all G7 countries and China while decreasing in the United Kingdom based on current economic growth policies, resulting in a net global increase, suggesting that climate-driven increase in GHG and climate variations impact crop production loss due to soil impacts and not provide climate adaptation. The study highlights the diverse strategies employed by G7 countries in reducing GHG emissions, with France leveraging nuclear power, Germany focusing on renewables, and Italy targeting its industrial and transportation sectors. The UK and Japan are making significant progress in emission reduction through renewable energy, while the US and Canada face challenges due to their industrial activities and reliance on fossil fuels.

Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons on soil surface: Kinetics and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model development

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have attracted much attention because of their widespread existence and toxicity. Photodegradation is the main natural decay process of PAHs in soil. The photodegradation kinetics of benzopyrene (BaP) on 16 kinds of soils and 10 kinds of PAHs on Hebei (HE) soil were studied. The results showed that BaP had the highest degradation rate in Shaanxi (SN) soil (kobs = 0.11 min-1), and anthracene (Ant) was almost completely degraded after 16 h of irradiation in HE soil. Two quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were established by the multiple linear regression (MLR) method. The developed QSAR models have good stability, robustness and predictability. The model revealed that the main factors affecting the photodegradation of PAHs are soil organic matter (SOM) and the energy gap between the highest occupied molecular orbital and the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (Egap). SOM can function as a photosensitizer to induce the production of active species for photodegradation, thus favoring the photodegradation of PAHs. In addition, compounds with lower Egap are less stable and more reactive, and thus are more prone to photodegradation. Finally, the QSAR model was optimized using machine learning approach. The results of this study provide basic information on the photodegradation of PAHs and have important significance for predicting the environmental behavior of PAHs in soil.

AI-based prediction of the improvement in air quality induced by emergency measures

Several cities in the developing world, of which the capital city of India, New Delhi, is an example, often experience air quality in which pollutant levels go way above the levels considered hazardous for human health. To bring down the air quality to within permissible limits quickly, the measures typically taken involve shutting down certain high-polluting activities for some time to enable the air quality to recover temporarily. This paper presents a first-ever model based on artificial neural networks to forecast the extent of reduction in air quality parameters that can be achieved and the time period within which a change can be experienced when the source of the emissions is cut off temporarily. The model is based on the extensive data on the extent of reduction in air quality parameters that occurred during the lockdown that was imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The non-linear autoregressive exogenous network-based model chosen for the purpose employs the hour since stopping of emissions, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and ambient temperature as input parameters to predict the rate of change of PM2.5 with respect to the concentration at the start of the stopping of the emissions. Air quality data from a key monitoring station in New Delhi was used to develop the model. The model predicted the rate of drop in PM2.5 with an R and MSE of 0.0044 and 0.9736, respectively, while training and 0.0095 and 0.9583 while testing. The model was then tested with data from 19 other stations in New Delhi, and accuracy of the model was found to be exceptionally accurate, with the correlation between the measured and the predicted PM2.5 levels ranging from 0.74 to 0.94 and the MSE ranging from 0.0110 to 1.0746. Thus, the model can be employed to determine the number of hours of temporary stoppage of emissions required for the PM2.5 concentration to reach safe levels. The methodology of development of the model can be extrapolated to construct models tailored for use in other parts of the world as well.

Quantifying the impact of lockdown measures on air pollution levels: A comparative study of Bhopal and Adelaide

This research study presents an in-depth comparison of air quality in Bhopal, India, and Adelaide, Australia, focusing on the impact of COVID-19 restrictions. Utilizing air quality data from 2019 to 2022, the research analyzed the concentrations of pollutants like PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3, during pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown periods. The findings demonstrate a significant reduction in PM2.5and PM10 levels during lockdown in cities such as Delhi and Haryana in India, and various Chinese cities, while also highlighting complex sources of air pollution like bushfires in regions like Sydney, Australia. In contrast, the study revealed nuanced trends in Bhopal and Adelaide, influenced by local geographical, climatic, and anthropogenic factors. Bhopal exhibited a notable decrease in PM10 and PM2.5levels, but inconsistent patterns in NO2 and CO, while Adelaide experienced marginal changes. The study emphasizes the temporary effectiveness of lockdowns and underscores the need for region-specific, sustainable air quality management strategies. Future implications include considerations for regional specificities, broader atmospheric chemistry, and international collaboration. The research provides valuable insights for urban air quality policy formulation, stressing a data-driven, long-term approach.

Development of surface observation-based two-step emissions adjustment and its application on CO, NOx, and SO2 emissions in China and South Korea

It is challenging to estimate local emission conditions of a downwind area solely based on concentrations in the downwind area. This is because air pollutants that have a long residence time in the atmosphere can be transported over long distances and influence air quality in downwind areas. In this study, a Two-step Emissions Adjustment (TEA) approach was developed to adjust downwind emissions of target air pollutants with surface observations, considering their long-range transported emission impacts from upwind areas calculated from air quality simulations. Using the TEA approach, CO, NOx, and SO2 emissions were adjusted in China and South Korea between 2016 and 2021 based on existing bottom-up emissions inventories. Simulations with the adjusted emissions showed that the 6-year average normalized mean biases of the monthly mean concentrations of CO, NOx, and SO2 improved to 0.3 %, -2 %, and 2 %, respectively, in China, and to 5 %, 7 %, and 4 %, respectively, in South Korea. When analyzing the emission trends, it was estimated that the annual emissions of CO, NOx, and SO2 in China decreased at a rate of 7.2 %, 4.5 %, and 10.6 % per year, respectively. The decrease rate of emissions for each of these pollutants was similar to that of ambient concentrations. When considering upwind emission impacts in the emissions adjustment, CO emissions increased by 1.3 %/year in South Korea, despite CO concentrations in the country decreasing during the study period. During the study period, NOx and SO2 emissions in South Korea decreased by 3.9 % and 0.5 %/year, respectively. Moreover, the TEA approach can account for drastic short-term emission changes (e.g., social distancing due to COVID-19). Therefore, the TEA approach can be used to adjust emissions and improve reproducibility of concentrations of air pollutants suitable for health studies for areas where upwind emission impacts are significant.

Air-quality prediction based on the ARIMA-CNN-LSTM combination model optimized by dung beetle optimizer

Air pollution is a serious problem that affects economic development and people's health, so an efficient and accurate air quality prediction model would help to manage the air pollution problem. In this paper, we build a combined model to accurately predict the AQI based on real AQI data from four cities. First, we use an ARIMA model to fit the linear part of the data and a CNN-LSTM model to fit the non-linear part of the data to avoid the problem of blinding in the CNN-LSTM hyperparameter setting. Then, to avoid the blinding dilemma in the CNN-LSTM hyperparameter setting, we use the Dung Beetle Optimizer algorithm to find the hyperparameters of the CNN-LSTM model, determine the optimal hyperparameters, and check the accuracy of the model. Finally, we compare the proposed model with nine other widely used models. The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper outperforms the comparison models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R²). The RMSE values for the four cities were 7.594, 14.94, 7.841 and 5.496; the MAE values were 5.285, 10.839, 5.12 and 3.77; and the R² values were 0.989, 0.962, 0.953 and 0.953 respectively.