Evaluación del riesgo quirúrgico de 1.000 episodios consecutivos con el sistema POSSUM. Comparación entre cirugía gastrointestinal programada y urgente

Rates of Textbook Outcome Achieved in Patients Undergoing Liver and Pancreatic Surgery

Backgorund: Textbook outcome (TO) is a composite measure that reflects the most desirable surgical results as a single indicator. The aim of this study was to assess the achievement of TO at a hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) surgery unit in a Spanish tertiary hospital. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational study of all consecutive patients who underwent HPB surgery over a 4-year period. Morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification at 30 days, hospital stay, risk of morbidity and mortality according to the POSSUM, and mortality and readmissions at 90 days were recorded. TO was considered when a patient presented no major complications (≥IIIA), no mortality, no readmission, and no prolonged length of stay (≤75th). Results: 283 patients were included. Morbidity >IIIA was reported in 21.6%, and 5.7% died; the median postoperative stay was 4 days. TO was achieved in 56.2% of patients. Comparing patients who presented TO with those who did not, significant differences were recorded for the type of procedure and the expected risk of morbidity and mortality calculated according to the POSSUM scale. There were significant differences between patients with major resections (TO rates: major hepatectomy (46.3%) and major pancreatectomy (52.5%)) and those with minor resections (TO rates minor hepatectomy (67.7%) and minor pancreatectomy (40.4%)). Conclusions: TO is a useful management tool for assessing postoperative results.

Comparison of the risk prediction systems POSSUM and P-POSSUM with the Surgical Risk Scale: A prospective cohort study of 721 patients

INTRODUCTION

The outcomes of surgery are subject to variability and difficult to be accurately predicted. Different score systems have been developed to estimating the risk of undergoing a surgical procedure. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive ability of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems, compared to the Surgical Risk Scale (SRS), in Spanish patients undergoing general surgery.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this prospective observational study, 721 consecutive patients needing a surgical procedure were included. Observed morbidity and mortality after surgery were compared to the expected ones obtained by applying POSSUM, P-POSSUM and SRS.

RESULTS

Mean age was 59.2 years (standard deviation (SD): 17.4 years), 43.5% were women. 616 (85.5%) patients underwent elective general surgery and 105 (14.5%) emergency surgery. The 30-day morbidity was 15.4%. The reintervention rate was 2.1% and mortality was 2.1%. The discrimination ability was excellent in predicting mortality. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were: POSSUM: AUC = 0.97, C.I.95%: 0.948-0.992, p < 0.0001; P-POSSUM: AUC = 0.966, C.I.95%: 0.941-0.991, p < 0.0001; SRS: AUC = 0.91, C.I.95%:0.853-0.967, p < 0.0001. POSSUM was also discriminative in the prediction of morbidity (AUC = 0.772, C.I.95%: 0.719-0.826, p < 0.0001). POSSUM predicted morbidity and mortality were higher than the observed ones (p = 0.01 and p = 0.04). Predicted and observed mortality were very similar for P-POSSUM (p = 0.93) and SRS (p = 0.37).

CONCLUSIONS

Expected morbidity and mortality determined by POSSUM score showed values significantly above the observed ones. P-POSSUM and SRS systems were effective in predicting mortality. The SRS application is simple and may contribute to appropriate medical decision making.