Oncotype DX Predictive Nomogram for Recurrence Score Output: The Novel System ADAPTED01 Based on Quantitative Immunochemistry Analysis

The role of modern parameters and their relationship with recurrence risk as assessed by Oncotype DX: real-world evidence

Genomic analysis through various platforms is an essential tool for determining prognosis and treatment in a significant subgroup of early-stage breast cancer patients with hormone receptor-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative status. Additionally, combined clinical and pathological characteristics can accurately predict the recurrence score (RS), as demonstrated by the University of Tennessee risk nomogram. In this study, we aimed to identify classical clinical-pathological factors associated with high RS in a local population, including modern parameters such as current abemaciclib treatment recommendations, HER2-low status, different Ki-67 cutoff values, and samples obtained from secondary primary tumours. This is a retrospective single-institution study that analysed a total of 215 tumour samples. Among lymph node-negative patients (n = 179), age, Ki67 values, and progesterone receptor status predicted RS after multivariate analysis. HER2-low status was not associated with RS differences (p = 0.41). Among lymph node-positive patients (n = 36), MonarchE inclusion criteria (15) were not associated with a higher RS (p = 0.61), and HER2-low did not reach statistical significance. However, tumours classified as secondary primaries numerically exhibited a higher RS. Based on these findings from our real-world sample, the mere application of clinical and pathological parameters is insufficient to predict RS outcomes. Modern parameters such as HER2-low status or adjuvant abemaciclib recommendations were not associated with RS differences. Regarding the observation of secondary tumours, more evidence is needed to understand whether prior hormone therapy exposure impacts the biological risk of secondary primary tumours.

The Rochester Modified Magee Algorithm (RoMMa): An Outcomes Based Strategy for Clinical Risk-Assessment and Risk-Stratification in ER Positive, HER2 Negative Breast Cancer Patients Being Considered for Oncotype DX® Testing

INTRODUCTION

Multigene genomic profiling has become the standard of care in the clinical risk-assessment and risk-stratification of ER⁺, HER2^- breast cancer (BC) patients, with Oncotype DX^® (ODX) emerging as the genomic profile test with the most support from the international community. The current state of the health care economy demands that cost-efficiency and access to testing must be considered when evaluating the clinical utility of multigene profile tests such as ODX. Several studies have suggested that certain lower risk patients can be identified more cost-efficiently than simply reflexing all ER⁺, HER2^- BC patients to ODX testing. The Magee equations^TM use standard histopathologic data in a set of multivariable models to estimate the ODX recurrence score. Our group published the first outcome data in 2019 on the Magee equations^TM, using a modification of the Magee equations^TM combined with an algorithmic approach-the Rochester Modified Magee algorithm (RoMMa). There has since been limited published outcome data on the Magee equations^TM. We present additional outcome data, with considerations of the TAILORx risk-stratification recommendations.

METHODS

355 patients with an ODX recurrence score, and at least five years of follow-up or a BC recurrence were included in the study. All patients received either Tamoxifen or an aromatase inhibitor. None of the patients received adjuvant systemic chemotherapy.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in the risk of recurrence in similar risk categories (very low risk, low risk, and high risk) between the average Modified Magee score and ODX recurrence score with the chi-square test of independence (p > 0.05) or log-rank test (p > 0.05). Using the RoMMa, we estimate that at least 17% of individuals can safely avoid ODX testing.

CONCLUSION

Our study further reinforces that BC patients can be confidently stratified into lower and higher-risk recurrence groups using the Magee equations^TM. The RoMMa can be helpful in the initial clinical risk-assessment and risk-stratification of BC patients, providing increased opportunities for cost savings in the health care system, and for clinical risk-assessment and risk-stratification in less-developed geographies where multigene testing might not be available.

Shear-wave elastography-based nomograms predicting 21-gene recurrence score for adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in patients with breast cancer

PURPOSE

To develop and validate nomograms based on shear-wave elastography (SWE) combined with clinicopathologic features for predicting Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS) for use with adjuvant systemic therapy guidelines.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, patients with breast cancer who underwent definitive surgery of the breast between August 2011 and December 2019 were eligible for this study. Those with surgery between August 2011 and March 2019 were assigned to a development set and the rest were assigned to an independent validation set. Clinicopathologic features and SWE elasticity indices were assessed with logistic regression to develop nomograms for predicting RS ≥ 16 and ≥ 26. Analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to assess the performance of the nomograms.

RESULTS

Of a total 381 women (mean age, 51 ± 9 years), 286 (mean age, 51 ± 9 years) were in the development set and 95 (mean age, 51 ± 9 years) in the validation set. All SWE elasticity indices were independently associated with each RS cutoff (odds ratio, 1.006-1.039 for RS ≥ 16; odds ratio, 1.008-1.076 for RS ≥ 26). Nomograms based on SWE combined with clinicopathologic features were developed and validated for RS ≥ 16 (mean elasticity [AUROC, 0.74; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.80] and maximum elasticity [AUROC, 0.74; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.80]) and for RS ≥ 26 (mean elasticity [AUROC, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.73, 0.89], maximum elasticity [AUROC, 0.82; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.89], and elasticity ratio [AUROC, 0.86; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.93]).

CONCLUSION

Nomograms based on SWE can predict Oncotype DX RS for use in adjuvant systemic therapy decisions.

Use of a supervised machine learning model to predict Oncotype DX risk category in node-positive patients older than 50 years of age

PURPOSE

The use of the Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS) to predict chemotherapy benefit in patients with hormone receptor-positive/HER2 negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer has recently expanded to include postmenopausal patients with N1 disease. RS availability is limited in resource-poor settings, however, prompting the development of statistical models that predict RS using clinicopathologic features. We sought to assess the performance of our supervised machine learning model in a cohort of patients > 50 years of age with N1 disease.

METHODS

We identified patients > 50 years of age with pT1-2N1 HR+/HER2- breast cancer and applied the statistical model previously developed in a node-negative cohort, which uses age, pathologic tumor size, histology, progesterone receptor expression, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor grade to predict RS. We measured the model's ability to predict RS risk category (low: RS ≤ 25; high: RS > 25).

RESULTS

Our cohort included 401 patients, 60.6% of whom had macrometastases, with a median of 1 positive node. The majority of patients had a low-risk observed RS (85.8%). For predicting RS category, the model had specificity of 97.3%, sensitivity of 31.8%, a negative predictive value of 87.9%, and a positive predictive value of 70.0%.

CONCLUSION

Our model, developed in a cohort of node-negative patients, was highly specific for identifying cN1 patients > 50 years of age with a low RS who could safely avoid chemotherapy. The use of this model for identifying patients in whom genomic testing is unnecessary would help decrease the cost burden in resource-poor settings as reliance on RS for adjuvant treatment recommendations increases.