Integrating Downstaging in the Risk Assessment of Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy: Validation of Valentini's Nomograms and the Neoadjuvant Rectal Score

Novel biomarkers to predict treatment response and prognosis in locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

To identify genes associated with treatment response and prognosis for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT).

METHODS

In our cohort, gene expression profiles of 64 tumor biopsy samples before NCRT were examined and generated. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis was performed to identify gene modules. External validation datasets included GSE3493, GSE119409, and GSE133057. The expression of candidate genes was evaluated using immunohistochemistry (IHC). TIMER was used to assess immune infiltration.

RESULTS

We identified and validated the capability to predict the treatment response of CCT5 and ELF1 using our data and external validation datasets. The trends of survival differences of candidate genes in the GSE133057 dataset were similar to our cohort. High levels of CCT5 and ELF1 expression were associated with NCRT resistance and poor prognosis. Furthermore, the expression of CCT5 and ELF1 were also assessed in 117 LARC patients' samples by the IHC method. Based on IHC results and Cox analysis, the risk score model with CCT5 and ELF1 was constructed and performed well. The risk score was an independent prognostic factor for progression-free survival and overall survival in LARC patients and was then used to build nomogram models. The underlying mechanisms of CCT5 and ELF1 were explored using gene set enrichment analysis. The underlying pathway including apoptosis, cell cycle, and other processes. CCT5 and ELF1 expressions were significantly correlated with immune cell infiltration.

CONCLUSION

CCT5 and ELF1 were determined as biomarkers for treatment response and prognosis in LARC patients. The risk score model and nomograms helped predict treatment response and survival outcomes for LARC patients undergoing NCRT.

Validation of the Neoadjuvant Rectal Cancer (NAR) Score for Prognostication Following Total Neoadjuvant Therapy (TNT) for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE

The neoadjuvant rectal cancer (NAR) score is a prognostic tool for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT). It has been previously validated as an endpoint that predicts survival more accurately than pathologic complete response (pCR) and is the primary endpoint of the ongoing NRG-GI002 Phase II trial. Using the National Cancer Database (NCDB), we aimed to validate the NAR score's ability to predict survival in a large hospital-based dataset.

METHODS

We queried the NCDB to identify locally advanced rectal cancer patients from 2004 to 2015 that received TNT followed by surgical resection. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves evaluating NAR score and pCR separately. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify factors associated with survival. Multivariate regression was used to evaluate characteristics associated with a favorable (< 14.98) NAR score.

RESULTS

From > 264,000 patients diagnosed with rectal adenocarcinoma in the NCDB, our final cohort yielded 209 patients with a median age of 62 years. Factors associated with worse survival included age > 62 years old (p = 0.04), lower income (p = 0.03), and unfavorable (≥ 14.98) NAR score (p = 0.04). On multivariate regression, tumors with perineural invasion and a higher comorbidity score (> 1) were less likely to have a favorable NAR response (p = 0.01 and p = 0.01). pCR was not associated with improved survival (p = 0.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study validates the NAR score as a prognostic tool in patients receiving TNT for LARC. Tumors with perineural invasion and patients with a higher comorbidity score had worse NAR scores.

The neoadjuvant rectal score and a novel magnetic resonance imaging based neoadjuvant rectal score are stage independent predictors of long-term outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer

AIM

Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score is an early surrogate for longer-term outcomes in rectal cancer undergoing radiotherapy and resection. In an era of increasing organ preservation, resection specimens are not always available to calculate the NAR score. Post-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) re-staging of regression is subjective, limiting reproducibility. We explored the potential for a novel MRI-based NAR score (mrNAR) adapted from the NAR formula.

METHODS

Locally advanced rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy (nCRT) and surgery were retrospectively identified between 2008 and 2020 in a single cancer network. mrNAR was calculated by adapting the NAR formula, replacing pathological (p) stages with post-nCRT MR stages (ymr). Cox regression assessed relationships between clinicopathological characteristics, NAR and mrNAR with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

In total, 381 NAR and 177 mrNAR scores were calculated. On univariate analysis NAR related to OS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-3.14, p = 0.001) and RFS (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.77-3.59, p = 0.001). NAR 3-year OS <8 was 95.3%, 8-16 was 88.6% and >16 was 80%. mrNAR related to OS (HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.38-6.34, p = 0.005) and RFS (HR 2.99, 95% CI 1.49-6.00, p = 0.002). 3-year OS for mrNAR <8 was 96.2%, 8-16 was 92.4% and >16 was 78%. On multivariate analysis, mrNAR was a stage-independent predictor of OS and RFS. mrNAR corresponded to NAR score category in only 15% (positive predictive value 0.23) and 47.5% (positive predictive value 0.48) of cases for categories <8 and >16, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Neoadjuvant rectal score is validated as a surrogate end-point for long-term outcomes. mrNAR categories do not correlate with NAR but have stage-independent prognostic value. mrNAR may represent a novel surrogate end-point for future neoadjuvant treatments that focus on organ preservation.

Impact of glucocorticoids on the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and survival of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Preclinical studies suggest that glucocorticoids (GCs) promote the proliferation and development of colorectal cancer. Because GCs are broadly prescribed for treatment-related adverse events in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT), it's essential to assess the effect of GCs on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

LARC cases treated with NCRT followed by surgery were assessed retrospectively. Evaluation of the relationship between GCs use (GCs vs. non-GCs) and neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score (as a three-level categorical dependent variable) was performed using multivariable multinomial logistic regression (MLR). We also examined the relationship between the accumulated dose of GCs and NAR using multivariate MLR. Survival analysis of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression was used to assess confounding factors that could influence OS and DFS.

RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study included 790 patients with newly diagnosed non-metastatic LARC (T3-4/N + M0) who received NCRT followed by surgery between January 2012 and April 2017. The end of the follow-up period was May 11, 2022. Among the 790 patients with LARC, 342 (43.2%) received GCs treatment and 448 (56.8%) did not during the NCRT-to-surgery period. GCs medication was significantly different between mid-NAR (8-16) and low-NAR (< 8) (odds ratio [OR], 0.615; 95% CI, 0.420-0.901; P = 0.013), and the high-NAR (> 16) and low-NAR (0.563; 0.352-0.900; 0.016). Patients exposed to GCs, had a decreased 5-year OS (GCs vs. non-GCs = 80.01% (95% CI, 75.87%-84.37%) vs. 85.30% (82.06%-88.67%), P = 0.023) and poorer 5-year DFS (73.99% (69.45%-78.82%) vs. 78.7% (75.14%-82.78%), P = 0.045). The accumulated dose of GCs was an independent risk factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.007 [1.001-1.014], 0.036) and DFS (1.010 [1.004-1.017], 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Our study revealed that GCs were associated with reduced efficacy of NCRT and worse clinical outcomes in patients with LARC during the NCRT-to-surgery period.

Neoadjuvant rectal score is prognostic for survival: A population-based propensity-matched analysis

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score may serve as a surrogate short-term endpoint for overall survival (OS) in clinical trials. This study aims to test the NAR score using a large, national cancer registry.

METHODS

National Cancer Database patients with clinical stage II/III rectal adenocarcinoma (RAC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) followed by surgery were selected and divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-NAR subgroups. OS outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 12 452 patients were selected, of which 5071 (40.7%) were in clinical stage II and 7381 (59.3%) were in clinical stage III; 15.2% had pathologic complete response. The mean NAR score was 10.01 ± 10.61. Six thousand nine hundred and forty-one (55.7%) did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) and were propensity-matched across NAR subgroups (966 in each group). A significant difference in 5-year OS between low-, intermediate-, and high-NAR groups was observed (85% vs. 76% vs. 68%; p < 0.001). Five thousand five hundred and eleven (44.3%) received AC and 1045 triplets were propensity-matched per NAR groups. A significant difference was again observed for 5-year OS (93% vs. 88% vs. 75%; p < 0.001). Logistic regression confirmed NAR strata as a significant predictor of 5-year OS.

CONCLUSION

NAR score, as a neoadjuvant response measure, is a strong predictor of 5-year OS, regardless of AC receipt in a heterogenous population of locally advanced RAC patients.

The concept and use of the neoadjuvant rectal score as a composite endpoint in rectal cancer

There is no universally accepted instrument to use as a validated surrogate endpoint for overall survival in phase 2 and phase 3 multimodal rectal cancer trials using chemoradiotherapy. Efforts are hampered by the inaccuracy of clinical TNM staging, the variability of indications for neoadjuvant treatment, and diverse definitions of tumour regression grade. Pathological complete response is commonly used, but fails to capture information from the majority of patients. The neoadjuvant rectal score categorises response and downstaging from the entire trial population to identify whether or not a novel treatment group in a chemoradiation trial is superior by predicting overall survival outcomes. Additionally, the neoadjuvant rectal score assesses the difference between initial clinical and pathological T stage and the presence or absence of nodal involvement after treatment. The neoadjuvant rectal score has been conceptually, but incompletely, statistically validated by two independent trial datasets. However, a fundamental weakness of the score is that no preoperative phase 3 trials in locally advanced rectal cancer in the past 20 years have provided a significant benefit in overall survival to statistically validate the neoadjuvant rectal score as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival. We review the robustness, practical value, applicability, generalisability, advantages, and disadvantages of the neoadjuvant rectal score as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival and recommend how this score could be improved and be acceptable as a standard endpoint in studies investigating neoadjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation in patients with rectal cancer.

Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score: Value evaluating the efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy and prognostic significance after surgery?

INTRODUCTION

The Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score is a new surrogate endpoint to be used in clinical trials for early determination of treatment response to different preoperative therapies. The aim is to further validate the NAR-score, primarily developed using chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with a delay to surgery 6-8 weeks, and explore its value using other schedules.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included all 9978 patients diagnosed with non-metastasized RC in 2007-2015 that had undergone surgery and was registered in the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. The patients of interest had either short-course radiotherapy (scRT)/CRT + delayed surgery, long-course radiotherapy (RT) + delayed surgery, (C)RT + additional chemotherapy, primary surgery, or scRT + immediate surgery. The scRT/CRT + delayed surgery groups were further divided based on time to surgery.

RESULTS

Mean NAR-score differed significantly (p < 0.0001) between different treatments. (C)RT + additional chemotherapy had the lowest mean score of 16.3 and CRT + delayed surgery had 17.7. There was a significant difference (p < 0.05) in overall survival (OS) and time to recurrence (TTR) of patients with a Low NAR-score (<8) compared to those with a High score (>16) for both CRT- and scRT, with a stronger correlation for CRT-patients. C-index for the NAR-score model (0.623) was not superior to when only pathological T- and N-stage was used (0.646).

CONCLUSIONS

The NAR-score is prognostic, but it is not better than pT- and pN-stage. However, the NAR-score can still discriminate between two treatments that have different cell killing effect and may still be of value in clinical trials as an easier method than pT- and N-stage.

Risk Stratification Using Neoadjuvant Rectal Score in the Era of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy: Validation With Long-term Outcome Data

BACKGROUND

Despite the widespread use of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, there is no prognostic surrogate marker established in locally advanced rectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the role of neoadjuvant rectal score as a prognostic factor to stratify individual-level risks of survival and tumor recurrence.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective study.

SETTINGS

This study was conducted at the Seoul National University Hospital.

PATIENTS

A total of 397 patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy plus total mesorectal excision were analyzed.

INTERVENTIONS

There was no intervention.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Harrell C statistic and receiver operating characteristic analysis, as well as Cox regression analysis, were used to assess the prognostic strength.

RESULTS

The low (<8), intermediate (8-16), and high (>16) neoadjuvant rectal score groups included 91 (23%), 208 (52%), and 98 patients (25%). A high neoadjuvant rectal score was independently associated with inferior overall survival and disease-free survival (p = 0.011 and 0.008). Regarding the prognostic models adjusted for neoadjuvant rectal score (I) and ypT/N stage (II), the c-index was higher in model I (0.799 and 0.787, p = 0.009 for overall survival; 0.752 and 0.743, p = 0.093 for disease-free survival). The predictive ability of the neoadjuvant rectal score was superior to tumor regression grade, ypT, and ypN in the receiver operating characteristic analyses (p < 0.05 for all). Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with better overall and disease-free survival (p = 0.003 and 0.052) in the high neoadjuvant rectal score group.

LIMITATIONS

Potential selection bias attributed to the retrospective study design was a limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

We verified the applicability of the neoadjuvant rectal score to stratify the relapse risk at the individual level for patients with stage II/III rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Additional studies are needed to validate the usability of neoadjuvant rectal score levels as a determinant of adjuvant strategy. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B354. ESTRATIFICACIÓN DE RIESGO UTILIZANDO LA PUNTUACIÓN RECTAL NEOADYUVANTE EN LA ERA DE LA QUIMIORRADIOTERAPIA NEOADYUVANTE: VALIDACIÓN CON DATOS DE RESULTADOS A LARGO PLAZO: A pesar del uso generalizado de la quimiorradioterapia neoadyuvante, no existe un marcador subrogado pronóstico establecido en el cáncer de recto localmente avanzado.Este estudio evaluó el papel de la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante como factor pronóstico para estratificar los riesgos a nivel individual de supervivencia y recurrencia tumoral.Este es un estudio retrospectivo.Este estudio se realizó en el Hospital de la Universidad Nacional de Seúl.Se analizaron un total de 397 pacientes que se sometieron a quimiorradioterapia más escisión mesorrectal total.No hubo intervención.El análisis estadístico C de Harrell y las características operativas del receptor, así como el análisis de regresión de Cox, se utilizaron para evaluar la fuerza pronóstica.Los grupos de puntaje rectal neoadyuvante bajo (<8), intermedio (8-16) y alto (> 16) incluyeron 91 (23%), 208 (52%) y 98 (25%) pacientes, respectivamente. Una puntuación rectal neoadyuvante alta se asoció independientemente con una supervivencia general y una supervivencia libre de enfermedad inferiores (p = 0.011 y 0.008, respectivamente). Con respecto a los modelos pronósticos ajustados por la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante (I) y el estadio ypT/N (II), el índice c fue mayor en el modelo I (0.799 y 0.787, p = 0.009 para la supervivencia general; 0.752 y 0.743, p = 0.093 para supervivencia libre de enfermedad). La capacidad predictiva de la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante fue superior al grado de regresión tumoral, ypT y ypN en los análisis de características operativas del receptor (p <0.05 para todos). La quimioterapia adyuvante se asoció con una mejor supervivencia global y libre de enfermedad (p = 0.003 y 0.052, respectivamente) en el grupo de puntaje rectal neoadyuvante alto.El sesgo de selección potencial debido al diseño retrospectivo del estudio fue la limitación.Verificamos la aplicabilidad de la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante para estratificar el riesgo de recurrencia a nivel individual para pacientes con cáncer rectal en estadio II/III sometidos a quimiorradioterapia neoadyuvante. Se necesitan más estudios para validar la usabilidad de los niveles de puntuación rectal neoadyuvante como determinante de la estrategia adyuvante. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B354.

Prognostic and Predictive Value of NAR Score in Gastric Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant treatment is a widely accepted approach for locally advanced rectum cancer. Efforts to explore a surrogate endpoint for clinical trials revealed a new prognostic scoring system which is named as neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR) in patients who received neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

88 patients who met inclusion criteria were included in the study. The optimal cutoff value of the NAR score was 17.6 with 71% sensitivity and 63% specificity. Patients with NAR score > 17.6 (n: 48, 54%) were defined as the high-risk group and those with NAR score ≤ 17.6 (n: 40, 56%) as the low-risk group.

RESULT

Survival analysis according to the NAR score group (low-risk vs high-risk) revealed that there was a statistically significant difference between groups regarding OS and DFS. The median OS for high-risk patients was 27.3 months (95% CI, 15.0-39.6); it was 76.6 months (47.3-106.0) for low-risk patients (p < 0.0001). The median DFS was 15.1 months (11.8-18.4) for high-risk patients; it was 44.3 months (95% CI, 4.1-84.6) in the low-risk group (p = 0.002).

DISCUSSION

As a result, we interpreted our findings as supporting data about the utility of NAR score not only as a surrogate endpoint for the clinical trial of rectal cancer but also as a prognostic marker in patients with gastric cancer who received neoadjuvant treatment.

Radiomics of MRI for pretreatment prediction of pathologic complete response, tumor regression grade, and neoadjuvant rectal score in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation: an international multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether pretreatment MRI-based radiomics of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and/or the surrounding mesorectal compartment (MC) can predict pathologic complete response (pCR), neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score, and tumor regression grade (TRG).

METHODS

One hundred thirty-two consecutive patients with LARC who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiation and total mesorectal excision (TME) were retrospectively collected from 2 centers in the USA and Italy. The primary tumor and surrounding MC were segmented on the best available T2-weighted sequence (axial, coronal, or sagittal). Three thousand one hundred ninety radiomic features were extracted using a python package. The most salient radiomic features as well as MRI parameter and clinical-based features were selected using recursive feature elimination. A logistic regression classifier was built to distinguish between any 2 binned categories in the considered endpoints: pCR, NAR, and TRG. Repeated k-fold validation was performed and AUCs calculated.

RESULTS

There were 24, 87, and 21 T4, T3, and T2 LARCs, respectively (median age 63 years, 32 to 86). For NAR and TRG, the best classification performance was obtained using both the tumor and MC segmentations. The AUCs for classifying NAR 0 versus 2, pCR, and TRG 0/1 versus 2/3 were 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60-0.71), 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.85), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77-0.82), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Radiomics of pretreatment MRIs can predict pCR, TRG, and NAR score in patients with LARC undergoing neoadjuvant treatment and TME with moderate accuracy despite extremely heterogenous image data. Both the tumor and MC contain important prognostic information.

KEY POINTS

• Machine learning of rectal cancer on images from the pretreatment MRI can predict important patient outcomes with moderate accuracy. • The tumor and the tissue around it both contain important prognostic information.

Expanding the TNM for cancers of the colon and rectum using machine learning: a demonstration

Objective

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system for staging cancers of the colon and rectum includes depth of tumour penetration, number of positive lymph nodes and presence or absence of metastasis. Using machine learning, we demonstrate that these factors can be integrated with age, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) interpretation and tumour location, to form prognostic systems that expand the tumour, lymph node, metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Methods

Two datasets on colon and rectal cancers were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme of the National Cancer Institute. Dataset 1 included three factors (tumour, lymph nodes and metastasis). Dataset 2 contained six factors (tumour, lymph nodes, metastasis, age, CEA interpretation and tumour location). The Ensemble Algorithm for Clustering Cancer Data (EACCD) and the C-index were applied to generate prognostic groups.

Results

The EACCD prognostic system based on dataset 1 stratified patients into 10 risk groups, analogous to the 10 stages of the AJCC staging system. There was a strong inter-system association between EACCD grouping and AJCC staging (Spearman’s rank correlation=0.9046, p value=1.6×10⁻¹⁷). However, the EACCD system had a significantly higher survival prediction accuracy than the AJCC system (C-index=0.7802 and 0.7695, respectively for the EACCD system and AJCC system, p value=4.9×10⁻⁹¹). Adding age, or CEA interpretation, or location improved the prediction accuracy of the prognostic system-involving tumour, lymph nodes and metastasis. The EACCD prognostic system based on dataset 2 and all six factors stratified patients into 10 groups with the highest survival prediction accuracy (C-index=0.7914).

Conclusions

The EACCD can integrate multiple factors to stratify patients with colon or rectal cancer into risk groups that predict survival with a high accuracy.

Disqualification of Neoadjuvant Rectal Score Based on Data of 6596 Patients From the Netherlands Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

The neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR) was developed as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant treatment. We aimed to validate the NAR score in patients from the Netherlands Cancer Registry database.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied patients with rectal cancer treated with long-course neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery in the Netherlands between 2007 and 2014. The probability of concordance with overall survival and the goodness of fit of several models were evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (c index) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is used to compare the quality of statistical models.

RESULTS

The NAR score resulted in a c index of 0.665. We found that single pathologic parameters (pT or pN) have similar concordance as the NAR formula (c index of 0.663 and 0.655, respectively). A combination of pT and pN resulted in better concordance with the true endpoint, overall survival (c index 0.684), and a simple Cox regression model with the 3 parameters included in the NAR formula (cT, pT, and pN) improved the concordance even more (c index 0.689). When the AIC index was compared for all models, the NAR score model showed the worst fit to the true endpoint.

CONCLUSION

We found no additional value for using the NAR formula as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

BACCHUS: A randomised non-comparative phase II study of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC)

BACKGROUND

Chemoradiation (CRT) or short-course radiotherapy (SCRT) are standard treatments for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). We evaluated the efficacy/safety of two neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) regimens as an alternative prior to total mesorectal excision (TME).

METHODS/DESIGN

This multi-centre, phase II trial in patients with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) defined high-risk LARC (>cT3b, cN2+ or extramural venous invasion) randomised patients (1:1) to FOLFOX + Bevacizumab (Arm 1) or FOLFOXIRI + bevacizumab (Arm 2) every 14 days for 6 cycles prior to surgery. Patients were withdrawn if positron emission tomography (PET) standardised uptake value (SUV) after 3 cycles failed to decrease by >30% or increased compared to baseline. Primary endpoint was pathological complete response rate (pCR). Secondary endpoints included adverse events (AE) and toxicity. Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) scores based on "T" and "N" downstaging were calculated.

FINDINGS

Twenty patients aged 18-75 years were randomised. The trial stopped early because of poor accrual. Seventeen patients completed all 6 cycles of NACT. One stopped due to myocardial infarction, 1 poor response on PET (both received CRT) and 1 committed suicide. 11 patients had G3 AE, 1 G4 AE (neutropenia), and 1 G5 (suicide). pCR (the primary endpoint) was 0/10 for Arm 1 and 2/10 for Arm 2 i.e. 2/20 (10%) overall. Median NAR score was 14·9 with 5 (28%), 7 (39%), and 6 (33%) having low, intermediate, or high scores. Surgical morbidity was acceptable (1/18 wound infection, no anastomotic leak/pelvic sepsis/fistulae). The 24-month progression-free survival rate was 75% (95% CI: 60%-85%).

INTERPRETATION

The primary endpoint (pCR rate) was not met. However, FOLFOXIRI and bevacizumab achieved promising pCR rates, low NAR scores and was well-tolerated. This regimen is suitable for testing as the novel arm against current standards of SCRT and/or CRT in a future trial.

Down-staging depth score to predict outcomes in locally advanced rectal cancer achieving ypI stage after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy versus de novo stage pI cohort: A propensity score-matched analysis

Objective

Prognosis of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) but achieving ypT1-2N0 stage after neoadjuvant concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) has been shown to be favorable. This study aims to determine whether the long-term outcome of ypT1-2N0 cases can be comparable to that of pT1-2N0 cohort that received definitive surgery for early disease.

Method

From January 2008 to December 2013, 449 consecutive patients with rectal cancer were treated and their outcome maintained in a database. Patients with LARC underwent total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery at 4-8 weeks after completion of CRT, and those achieving stage ypI were identified as a group. As a comparison, stage pI group pertains to patients whose initially limited disease was not upstaged after TME surgery alone. After propensity score matching (PSM), comparisons of local regional control (LC), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were performed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test between ypI and pI groups. Down-staging depth score (DDS), a novel method of evaluating CRT response, was used for subset analysis.

Results

Of the 449 patients, 168 matched cases were generated for analysis. Five-year LC, DMFS, DFS and OS for stage pI vs. ypI groups were 96.7% vs. 96.4% (P=0.796), 92.7% vs. 73.6% (P=0.025), 91.2% vs. 73.6% (P=0.080) and 93.1% vs. 72.3% (P=0.040), respectively. In the DDS-favorable subset of the ypI group, LC, DMFS, DFS and OS resulted in no significant differences in comparison with the pI group (P=0.384, 0.368, 0.277 and 0.458, respectively).

Conclusions

LC was comparable in both groups; however, distant metastasis developed more frequently in down-staged LARC than de novo early stage cases, reflecting the need to improve the efficacy of systemic treatment despite excellent pathologic response. DDS can be an indicator to identify a subset of the ypI group whose long-term oncologic outcomes are as good as those of stage pI cohort.