Evolution of diagnostic criteria for acute kidney injury in patients with decompensated cirrhosis: A prospective study in a tertiary university hospital

A dynamic model to predict early occurrence of acute kidney injury in ICU hospitalized cirrhotic patients: a MIMIC database analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting the early occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in ICU hospitalized cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

Eligible patients with cirrhosis were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database. Demographic data, laboratory examinations, and interventions were obtained. After splitting the population into training and validation cohorts, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to select factors and construct the dynamic online nomogram. Calibration and discrimination were used to assess nomogram performance, and clinical utility was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 1254 patients were included in the analysis, and 745 developed AKI. The mean arterial pressure, white blood cell count, total bilirubin level, Glasgow Coma Score, creatinine, heart rate, platelet count and albumin level were identified as predictors of AKI. The developed model had a good ability to differentiate AKI from non-AKI, with AUCs of 0.797 and 0.750 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Moreover, the nomogram model showed good calibration. DCA showed that the nomogram had a superior overall net benefit within wide and practical ranges of threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamic online nomogram can be an easy-to-use tool for predicting the early occurrence of AKI in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

Incidence and risk factors of acute kidney injury in cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 5,202,232 outpatients, inpatients, and ICU-admitted patients

INTRODUCTION

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a commonly seen condition in the natural course of cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the pooled incidence and risk factors of AKI in different clinical stages and situations in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Search was conducted on 13 December 2023 across MEDLINE (PubMed), Embase, and Cochrane databases. Meta-analysis was performed using a generalized linear mixed model.

RESULTS

In total, 73 studies with 5,202,232 patients were finally enrolled in the meta-analysis. AKI commonly occurs among hospitalized cirrhotics experiencing any decompensation event (29%) as well as among stable outpatients (28%) throughout a 1-year follow-up period. On admission, patients with infection or sepsis/septic shock had the highest AKI rate (47%), followed by those with hepatic encephalopathy (41%). Furthermore, the severity of liver disease proved to be a substantial driver for AKI development, while patients at intensive care unit had the greatest AKI incidence (61%).

CONCLUSIONS

Both hospitalized patients and stable outpatients with cirrhosis exhibited an elevated susceptibility to AKI. Patients at intensive care unit and those with severe liver disease, infection, sepsis/septic shock, hepatic encephalopathy, or acute on chronic liver failure upon admission are at higher risk for AKI.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, registered 09/12/23, CRD42023487736.

Development and evaluation of machine learning models and nomogram for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in patients progresses rapidly and can cause multiple organ failures associated with high mortality. We aimed to train a machine learning (ML) model and establish a nomogram that could identify SAP, early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 631 patients with AP were enrolled in the training cohort. For predicting SAP early, five supervised ML models were employed, such as random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and naive Bayes (NB), which were evaluated by accuracy (ACC) and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The nomogram was established, and the predictive ability was assessed by the calibration curve and AUC. They were externally validated by an independent cohort of 109 patients with AP.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, the AUC of RF, KNN, and NB models were 0.969, 0.954, and 0.951, respectively, while the AUC of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson and Glasgow scores were only 0.796, 0.847, and 0.837, respectively. In the validation cohort, the RF model also showed the highest AUC, which was 0.961. The AUC for the nomogram was 0.888 and 0.955 in the training and validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggested that the RF model exhibited the best predictive performance, and the nomogram provided a visual scoring model for clinical practice. Our models may serve as practical tools for facilitating personalized treatment options and improving clinical outcomes through pre-treatment stratification of patients with AP.

Impact of acute kidney injury on the risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To compare the risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis with and without the associated acute kidney injury (AKI).

Methods

We performed a systematic search in the PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases for observational studies that were done on patients with cirrhosis. Eligible studies reported AKI in patients with cirrhosis and compared mortality among patients with and without AKI. We used a random-effects model, using STATA version 16.0, for deriving pooled effect sizes that were reported as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Thirty-two studies were included. In patients with cirrhosis, AKI was significantly associated with higher in-hospital mortality (OR 5.92), and mortality at 30 days (OR 4.78), 90 days (OR 4.34), and at 1 year follow-up (OR 4.82) compared to patients without AKI.

Conclusions

AKI is associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Careful monitoring to identify the development of AKI and early prompt management is necessary.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival in cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and severe complication in patients with cirrhosis, and is associated with poor prognosis. Therefore, identifying cirrhotic patients with AKI who are at high risk of mortality is very important and may be helpful for providing timely medical interventions to improve the prognosis of these patients. However, studies focused on investigating the risk factors for the mortality of cirrhotic patients with AKI were scarce.

AIM

To identify risk factors for mortality and establish a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of these patients.

METHODS

Two hundred fifty consecutive patients with cirrhosis and AKI were recruited and randomly divided into training cohort (n = 173) and validation cohort (n = 77). In the training cohort, potential risk factors for death were identified by performing a Cox regression analysis, and a nomogram was established. The predictive performance of the nomogram was internally and externally validated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), constructing a calibration curve and performing decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

The serum sodium level, international normalized ratio, peak serum creatinine level > 1.5 mg/dL, the presence of hepatic encephalopathy and diabetes were potential risk factors for mortality of cirrhotic patients with AKI in the training dataset. A prognostic nomogram incorporating these variables was established for predicting the overall survival of these patients. Compared with Child-Turcotte-Pugh, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and the MELD-Na scores, the nomogram in predicting 90- and 180-d mortality exhibited better discriminatory power with AUROCs of 0.792 and 0.801 for the training dataset and 0.817 and 0.862 for the validation dataset, respectively. With a nomogram score of 98, patients were divided into low- and high-risk groups, and high-risk patients had a higher mortality rate.

CONCLUSION

A prognostic nomogram displayed good performance for predicting the overall survival of cirrhotic patients with AKI, and will assist clinicians in evaluating the prognosis of these patients.

COST EFFECTIVENESS OF USING TERLIPRESSIN TO TREAT HEPATORENAL SYNDROME

BACKGROUND

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is the most severe form of acute kidney injury in patients with advanced cirrhosis, and it is associated with high mortality. It is usually diagnosed according to criteria defined by the International Ascites Club. Currently, the most frequently indicated pharmacological therapy for the treatment of HRS is a combination of splanchnic vasoconstrictors (terlipressin or norepinephrine) in combination with albumin. With the progressive increase in healthcare spending, it is important to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of pharmacological treatment in patients who are diagnosed with HRS.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a cost-effectiveness assessment for the use of terlipressin in combination with albumin to treat HRS in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Economic evaluation of cost-effectiveness based on secondary data from studies showed the efficacy of terlipressin therapy compared with norepinephrine combined with albumin or albumin alone. The cost-effectiveness analysis was calculated using an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and a sensitivity analysis was developed by varying the values of therapies and probabilities. The Brazilian real was the currency used in the analysis, and the results were converted to US dollars.

RESULTS

After selection, eligibility, and evaluation of the quality of publications, the results demonstrated that administration of terlipressin or norepinephrine in combination with albumin in patients diagnosed with HRS type 1 was efficacious. The cost of treatment with terlipressin in combination with albumin was USD $1,644.06, administration of albumin alone was USD $912.02, and norepinephrine plus albumin was USD $2,310.78. Considering that the combination therapies demonstrated effectiveness, the incremental cost of terlipressin and norepinephrine in combination with albumin was USD $666.73, and an effectiveness of 0.570 was found for terlipressin in combination with albumin and 0.200 for norepinephrine in combination with albumin. The incremental effectiveness was 0.370, and the ICER was USD $1,801.97. Thus, the parameters of increasing cost per therapy and ICER indicated that the combined therapy of terlipressin plus albumin was cost effective compared to albumin alone or norepinephrine plus albumin in a public single-payer healthcare system.

CONCLUSION

A cost-effectiveness analysis showed that terlipressin in combination with albumin when administered concomitantly to patients who were diagnosed with type 1 HRS is cost-effective compared to norepinephrine in combination with albumin administered in a controlled environment.

Acute kidney injury in patients with cirrhosis: Prospective longitudinal study in 405 patients

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in patients with cirrhosis. In 2015, the International Club of Ascites (ICA) proposed new definitions of AKI in order to improve the prediction of outcomes. Our aim was to assess the prevalence and prognostic value of ICA 2015 - AKI criteria in hospitalised patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We prospectively collected data from 405 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to the hospital between November 2016 and November 2017. AKI was diagnosed at inclusion according to ICA 2015 criteria, and was assessed to predict 30-day and 90-day in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

AKI was diagnosed in 78 (19.3%) patients. AKI was independently associated with 90-day death (HR 7.61; 95% CI 4.75-12.19; p < 0.001). In hospital, 30-day and 90-day survival was lower in the group of patients with AKI compared to the group with no AKI (72% vs. 98%, p < 0.001; 64% vs. 96%, p < 0.001; and 49% vs. 81%, p < 0.001, respectively). Patients with stage 1a AKI had a lower 30-day and 90-day survival compared to the group of patients who did not develop AKI (71% vs. 96%, p < 0.001, and 71% vs. 91%, p < 0.01, respectively) and better survival than patients with more severe AKI (71% vs. 40%, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

AKI was independently associated with mortality in patients with cirrhosis, even at the very early 1a stage. Response to treatment improved survival, and was inversely proportional to the stage of AKI, which suggests that treatment should be started at the earliest stage of AKI.

Current aspects of renal dysfunction after liver transplantation

The development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) after liver transplantation (LT) exerts a severe effect on the survival of patients. The widespread adoption of the model for end-stage liver disease score strongly impacted CKD incidence after the procedure, as several patients are transplanted with previously deteriorated renal function. Due to its multifactorial nature, encompassing pre-transplantation conditions, perioperative events, and nephrotoxic immunosuppressor therapies, the accurate identification of patients under risk of renal disease, and the implementation of preventive approaches, are extremely important. Methods for the evaluation of renal function in this setting range from formulas that estimate the glomerular filtration rate, to non-invasive markers, although no option has yet proved efficient in early detection of kidney injury. Considering the nephrotoxicity of calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) as a factor of utmost importance after LT, early nephroprotective strategies are highly recommended. They are based mainly on delaying the application of CNI during the immediate postoperative-period, reducing their dosage, and associating them with other less nephrotoxic drugs, such as mycophenolate mofetil and everolimus. This review provides a critical assessment of the causes of renal dysfunction after LT, the methods of its evaluation, and the interventions aimed at preserving renal function early and belatedly after LT.