Dosimetric Predictors of Hypothyroidism After Radical Intensity-modulated Radiation Therapy for Non-metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

A machine learning approach for predicting radiation-induced hypothyroidism in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma undergoing tomotherapy

The purpose of this study was to establish an integrated predictive model that combines clinical features, DVH, radiomics, and dosiomics features to predict RIHT in patients receiving tomotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Data from 219 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 175) and a test cohort (n = 44) in an 8:2 ratio. RIHT is defined as serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) greater than 5.6 μU/mL, with or without a decrease in free thyroxine (FT4). Clinical features, 27 DVH features, 107 radiomics features and 107 dosiomics features were extracted for each case and included in the model construction. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression method was used to select the most relevant features. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was then employed to train separate models using the selected features from clinical, DVH, radiomics and dosiomics data. Finally, a combined model incorporating all features was developed. The models were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis. In the test cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the clinical, DVH, radiomics, dosiomics and combined models were 0.798 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.656-0.941), 0.673 (0.512-0.834), 0.714 (0.555-0.873), 0.698 (0.530-0.848) and 0.842 (0.724-0.960), respectively. The combined model exhibited higher AUC values compared to other models. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the combined model had superior clinical utility within the threshold probability range of 1% to 79% when compared to the other models. This study has successfully developed a predictive model that combines multiple features. The performance of the combined model is superior to that of single-feature models, allowing for early prediction of RIHT in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after tomotherapy.

Normal tissue complication probability models of hypothyroidism after radiotherapy for breast cancer

Purpose

We aimed to develop Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models to predict the risk of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RIHT) in breast cancer patients.

Materials and methods

A total of 1,063 breast cancer patients who underwent whole breast irradiation between 2009 and 2016 were analyzed. Individual dose-volume histograms were used to generate LKB and multivariable logistic regression models. LKB model was fit using the thyroid radiation dose-volume parameters. A multivariable model was constructed to identify potential dosimetric and clinical parameters associated with RIHT. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping techniques, and model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test.

Results

RIHT developed in 4 % of patients with a median follow-up of 77.7 months. LKB and multivariable NTCP models exhibited significant agreement between the predicted and observed results (HL P values > 0.05). The multivariable NTCP model outperformed the LKB model in predicting RIHT (AUC 0.62 vs. 0.54). In the multivariable model, systemic therapy, age, and percentage of thyroid volume receiving ≥ 10 Gy (V10) were significant prognostic factors for RIHT. The cumulative incidence of RIHT was significantly higher in patients who exceeded the cut-off values for all three risk predictors (systemic therapy, age ≥ 40 years, and thyroid V10 ≥ 26 %, P < 0.005).

Conclusions

Systemic therapy, age, and V10 of the thyroid were identified as strong risk factors for the development of RIHT. Our NTCP models provide valuable insights to clinicians for predicting and preventing hypothyroidism by identifying high-risk patients.

Analysis of correlative risk factors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in head and neck tumors

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study is to identify clinical and dosimetric factors that could predict the risk of radiation-induced hypothyroidism(RIHT) in head and neck cancer(HNC) patients following intensity-modulated radiotherapy(IMRT).

METHODS

A total of 103 HNC patients were included in our study. General clinical characteristic and dosimetric data of all recruited patients were analyzed, respectively. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression anlalysis were successively conducted to identify optimal predictors, which aim to construct the nomogram. And the joint prediction was performed.

RESULTS

The incidence of patients with HNC was 36.9% (38/103). Among the clinical factors, gender, N stage, chemotherapy, frequency of chemotherapy and surgery involving the thyroid were related to RIHT. Logistic regression analysis showed that thyroid volume, Dmean, VS45, VS50, VS60 and V30,60 were independent predictors of RIHT, which were also incorporated in the nomogram. An AUC of 0.937 (95%CI, 0.888-0.958) also was showed outstanding resolving ability of the nomogram. When the volume of the thyroid was greater than 10.6 cm3, the incidence of RIHT was 14.8%, and when the volume of the thyroid was equal to or smaller than 10.6 cm3, the incidence was 72.5%. The incidence rates of RIHT in the group with VS60≦8.4cm3 and VS60 > 8.4cm3 were 61.4% and 19.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid volume and thyroid VS60 are independent predictors of RIHT in patients with HNC. Moreover, more attention should be paid to patients with thyroid volume ≤ 10.6cm3. Thyroid VS60 > 8.4cm3 may be a useful threshold for predicting the development of RIHT. The nomogram conducted by the research may become a potential and valuable tool that could individually predict the risk of RIHT for HNC patients.

Radiomics and dosiomics for predicting radiation-induced hypothyroidism and guiding intensity-modulated radiotherapy

To guide individualized intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), we developed and prospectively validated a multiview radiomics risk model for predicting radiation-induced hypothyroidism in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. And simulated radiotherapy plans with same dose-volume-histogram (DVH) but different dose distributions were redesigned to explore the clinical application of the multiview radiomics risk model. The radiomics and dosiomics were built based on selected radiomics and dosiomics features from planning computed tomography and dose distribution, respectively. The multiview radiomics risk model that integrated radiomics, dosiomics, DVH parameters, and clinical factors had better performance than traditional normal tissue complication probability models. And multiview radiomics risk model could identify differences of patient hypothyroidism-free survival that cannot be stratified by traditional models. Besides, two redesigned simulated plans further verified the clinical application and advantage of the multiview radiomics risk model. The multiview radiomics risk model was a promising method to predict radiation-induced hypothyroidism and guide individualized IMRT.

Development and validation of a machine learning model of radiation-induced hypothyroidism with clinical and dose-volume features

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RIHT) is a common but underestimated late effect in head and neck cancers. However, no consensus exists regarding risk prediction or dose constraints in RIHT. We aimed to develop a machine learning model for the accurate risk prediction of RIHT based on clinical and dose-volume features and to evaluate its performance internally and externally.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively searched two institutions for patients aged >20 years treated with definitive radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancer, and extracted their clinical information and dose-volume features. One was designated the developmental cohort, the other as the external validation cohort. We compared the performances of machine learning models with those of published normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models.

RESULTS

The developmental and external validation cohorts consisted of 378 and 49 patients, respectively. The estimated cumulative incidence rates of grade ≥1 hypothyroidism were 53.5% and 61.3% in the developmental and external validation cohorts, respectively. Machine learning models outperformed traditional NTCP models by having lower Brier scores at every time point and a lower integrated Brier score, while demonstrating a comparable calibration index and mean area under the curve. Even simplified machine learning models using only thyroid features performed better than did traditional NTCP algorithms. The machine learning models showed consistent performance between folds. The performance in a previously unseen external validation cohort was comparable to that of the cross-validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model outperformed traditional NTCP models, with additional capabilities of predicting the RIHT risk at individual time points. A simplified model using only thyroid dose-volume features still outperforms traditional NTCP models and can be incorporated into future treatment planning systems for biological optimization.

Using machine learning algorithm to analyse the hypothyroidism complications caused by radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer

Machine learning algorithms were used to analyze the odds and predictors of complications of thyroid damage after radiation therapy in patients with head and neck cancer. This study used decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms to evaluate predictors for the data of 137 head and neck cancer patients. Candidate factors included gender, age, thyroid volume, minimum dose, average dose, maximum dose, number of treatments, and relative volume of the organ receiving X dose (X: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 Gy). The algorithm was optimized according to these factors and tenfold cross-validation to analyze the state of thyroid damage and select the predictors of thyroid dysfunction. The importance of the predictors identified by the three machine learning algorithms was ranked: the top five predictors were age, thyroid volume, average dose, V50 and V60. Of these, age and volume were negatively correlated with thyroid damage, indicating that the greater the age and thyroid volume, the lower the risk of thyroid damage; the average dose, V50 and V60 were positively correlated with thyroid damage, indicating that the larger the average dose, V50 and V60, the higher the risk of thyroid damage. The RF algorithm was most accurate in predicting the probability of thyroid damage among the three algorithms optimized using the above factors. The Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.827 and the accuracy (ACC) was 0.824. This study found that five predictors (age, thyroid volume, mean dose, V50 and V60) are important factors affecting the chance that patients with head and neck cancer who received radiation therapy will develop hypothyroidism. Using these factors as the prediction basis of the algorithm and using RF to predict the occurrence of hypothyroidism had the highest ACC, which was 82.4%. This algorithm is quite helpful in predicting the probability of radiotherapy complications. It also provides references for assisting medical decision-making in the future.

Epidemiology, Types, Causes, Clinical Presentation, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Hypothyroidism

Hypothyroidism means an underactive thyroid gland. This leads to a decrease in the functioning of the thyroid gland. It is a very common endocrine disorder that causes under-secretion of thyroid hormones, mainly thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3). It affects people of every age group but is more commonly found in women and older people. The symptoms of hypothyroidism can go unnoticed, may not be specific, and may overlap with other conditions, which makes it harder to diagnose it in some cases. Common symptoms include fatigue, weight gain, increased sensitivity to cold (cold intolerance), irregular bowel movements (constipation), and dry skin (xeroderma). These conditions are mostly the result of a low metabolic rate in the body. Weight gain occurs due to a decrease in fat-burning rate and cold intolerance due to a decrease in heat production by the body. This condition can be caused by a variety of factors, including autoimmune diseases, radiation therapy, thyroid gland removal surgeries, and certain medications. The diagnosis of hypothyroidism is based on laboratory tests that measure the levels of thyroid hormones (T3 and T4) in the blood. Treatment typically involves lifelong hormone replacement therapy with synthetic thyroid hormone replacement medication, such as levothyroxine, to help regulate hormone levels in the body. People with hypothyroidism may need to have their medication dosage adjusted over time. If hypothyroidism is left untreated, it can lead to severe complications like mental retardation, delayed milestones, etc., in infants and heart failure, infertility, myxedema coma, etc., in adults. With appropriate treatment, the symptoms of hypothyroidism can be effectively managed, and most people with the condition can lead normal, healthy lives. Lifestyle modifications like eating healthy food and exercising regularly can help manage the symptoms and improve the quality of life.

Risk factors of early thyroid dysfunction after definitive radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

To explore the patterns and risk factors of early thyroid dysfunction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients within 1 year after intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT).

METHODS

Patients with NPC who received definitive IMRT between April 2016 and April 2020 were included. All patients had normal thyroid function before definitive IMRT. The chi-square test, Student's T-test, Mann-Whitney U test, Kaplan-Meier method, receiver operating characteristics curve, and Cox proportional hazard analysis were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 132 NPC patients were identified. Of these patients, 56 (42.4%) had hypothyroidism and 17 (12.9%) had hyperthyroidism. The median time to hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism was 9 months (range, 1-12 months) and 1 month (range, 1-6 months) after definitive IMRT, respectively. In patients with hypothyroidism, 41 (73.2%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 15 (26.8%) had clinical hypothyroidism. In those with hyperthyroidism, 12 patients (70.6%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism, and five patients (29.4%) had clinical hyperthyroidism. Age, clinical stage, thyroid volume, and V45 were independent risk factors for early radiation-induced hypothyroidism within 1 year after IMRT. Patients aged <47 years, stage III/IV disease, or pre-irradiation thyroid volume < 14 cm3 had higher risks of developing hypothyroidism.

CONCLUSION

Primary subclinical hypothyroidism was the most common subtype of early thyroid dysfunction in NPC patients within 1 year after IMRT. Age, clinical stage, thyroid volume, and V45 were independent risk factors for early radiation-induced hypothyroidism in NPC patients.

Hypothyroidism following Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Opportunities to Improve the Therapeutic Ratio

(1) Background: Radiotherapy (RT) is a central component for the treatment of many head and neck cancers. In this systematic review of the literature, we aimed to characterize and quantify the published evidence on RT-related hypothyroidism, including estimated incidence, clinical risk factors, and dosimetric parameters that may be used to guide clinical decision making. Furthermore, we aimed to identify potential areas of improvement in the prevention and clinical management of RT-induced hypothyroidism, including the role of modern advanced therapeutic techniques. (2) Methods: We conducted a systemic review of the literature in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. PubMed and Google Scholar were searched to identify original research articles describing the incidence, mechanism, dosimetry, treatment, or prevention of radiation-related hypothyroidism for adults receiving RT for the treatment of head and neck cancers. The snowball method was used to identify additional articles. For identified articles, we tabulated several datapoints, including publication date, patient sample size, estimated hypothyroidism incidence, cancer site/type, follow-up period, radiation modality and technique, use of multimodality therapy, method of thyroid function evaluation, and proposed dosimetric predictors of hypothyroidism. (3) Results: One hundred and eleven articles met inclusion criteria, reflecting a range of head and neck cancer subtypes. There was a large variation in the estimated incidence of RT-related hypothyroidism, with a median estimate of 36% (range 3% to 79%). Reported incidence increased in later publication dates, which was likely related to improved screening and longer follow up. There were a wide variety of predictive metrics used to identify patients at high risk of hypothyroidism, the most common of which were volumetric and mean dosimetrics related to the thyroid gland (Vxx%, Dmean). More recently, there has been increasing evidence to suggest that the thyroid gland volume itself and the volume of the thyroid gland spared from high-dose radiation (VSxx) may better predict thyroid function after RT. There were no identified studies investigating the role of advanced radiotherapeutic techniques such as MRI-guided RT or particle therapy to decrease RT-related hypothyroidism. Conclusions: Hypothyroidism is a common toxicity resulting from therapeutic radiation for head and neck cancer with recent estimates suggesting 40-50% of patients may experience hypothyroidism after treatment. Dosimetric predictive models are increasingly able to accurately identify patients at risk of hypothyroidism, especially those utilizing thyroid VS metrics. Further investigation regarding the potential for advanced radiotherapeutic therapies to decrease RT-induced thyroid dysfunction is needed.

Post-radiation primary hypothyroidism in patients with head and neck cancer: External validation of thyroid gland dose-volume constraints with long-term endocrine outcomes

BACKGROUND

Post-radiation primary hypothyroidism is a common late complication in head and neck cancer (HNC) survivors. No radiation dose-volume constraint of the thyroid gland has been externally validated for predicting long-term thyroid function outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This external validation study evaluated the diagnostic properties of 22 radiation dose-volume constraints of the thyroid gland proposed in the literature. Radiation dosimetric data from 488 HNC patients who underwent neck irradiation from January 2013 to December 2015 at two tertiary oncology centers were reviewed. The diagnostic metrics of candidate constraints were computed by inverse probability of censoring weighting and compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with death designated as a competing event. Multivariable regression analyses were performed using the Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 6.8 years, 205 (42.0 %) patients developed post-radiation primary hypothyroidism. The thyroid volume spared from 60 Gy (VS60) had the largest area under ROC curve of 0.698 at 5 years after radiotherapy. Of all evaluated constraints, VS60 at a cutoff value of 10 cc had the highest F-score of 0.53. The 5-year hypothyroidism risks of patients with thyroid VS60 ≥ 10 cc and < 10 cc were 14.7 % and 38.2 %, respectively (p < 0.001). The adjusted sub-hazard ratio for post-radiation primary hypothyroidism for VS60 < 10 cc was 1.87 (95 % confidence interval, 1.22-2.87; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Thyroid VS60 is the best radiation dose-volume parameter to predict the long-term risk of primary hypothyroidism in patients with HNC who underwent neck irradiation. VS60 ≥ 10 cc is a robust constraint that limits the 5-year primary hypothyroidism risk to less than 15 % and should be routinely employed during radiotherapy optimization.

Organs-at-risk dose constraints in head and neck intensity-modulated radiation therapy using a dataset from a multi-institutional clinical trial (JCOG1015A1)

Background

JCOG1015A1 is an ancillary research study to determine the organ-specific dose constraints in head and neck carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) using data from JCOG1015.

Methods

Individual patient data and dose-volume histograms of organs at risk (OAR) were collected from 74 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with IMRT who enrolled in JCOG1015. The incidence of late toxicities was evaluated using the cumulative incidence method or prevalence proportion. ROC analysis was used to estimate the optimal DVH cut-off value that predicted toxicities.

Results

The 5-year cumulative incidences of Grade (G) 1 myelitis, ≥ G1 central nervous system (CNS) necrosis, G2 optic nerve disorder, ≥ G2 dysphagia, ≥ G2 laryngeal edema, ≥ G2 hearing impaired, ≥ G2 middle ear inflammation, and ≥ G1 hypothyroidism were 10%, 5%, 2%, 11%, 5%, 26%, 34%, and 34%, respectively. Significant associations between DVH parameters and incidences of toxicities were observed in the brainstem for myelitis (D1cc ≥ 55.8 Gy), in the brain for CNS necrosis (D1cc ≥ 72.1 Gy), in the eyeball for optic nerve disorder (Dmax ≥ 36.6 Gy), and in the ipsilateral inner ear for hearing impaired (Dmean ≥ 44 Gy). The optic nerve, pharyngeal constrictor muscle (PCM), and thyroid showed tendencies between DVH parameters and toxicity incidence. The prevalence proportion of G2 xerostomia at 2 years was 17 versus 6% (contralateral parotid gland Dmean ≥ 25.8 Gy vs less).

Conclusions

The dose constraint criteria were appropriate for most OAR in this study, although more strict dose constraints might be necessary for the inner ear, PCM, and brainstem.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13014-022-02105-3.

Predictors of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma survivors after intensity-modulated radiotherapy

Background

The aim of the study is to identify clinical and dosimetric factors that could predict the risk of hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients following intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

Methods

A total of 404 non-metastatic NPC patients were included in our study. All patients were treated with IMRT. The thyroid function were performed for all patients before and after radiation at regular intervals. The time onset for developing hypothyroidism was defined as the time interval between the completion of RT and the first recorded abnormal thyroid hormone test. The cumulative incidence rates of hypothyroidism were estimated using Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to detect the most promising factors that were associated with hypothyroidism.

Results

Median follow up was 60.6 months. The 3-, 5- and 7- year cumulative incidence rate of hypothyroidism was 39.4%, 49.1% and 54.7%, respectively. The median time to primary hypothyroidism and central hypothyroidism were 15.4 months (range 2.9–83.8 months) and 29.9 months (range 19.8–93.6 months), respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that younger age, female gender and small thyroid volume were the most important factors in predicting the risk of hypothyroidism. Dtmean (mean dose of thyroid), V30-V50 (percentage of thyroid volume receiving a certain dose level) and VS45-VS60 (the absolute volumes of thyroid spared from various dose levels) remained statistically significant in multivariate analyses. Cutoff points of 45 Gy (Dtmean), 80% (Vt40) and 5 cm³ (VS45Gy) were identified to classify patients as high-risk or low-risk group.

Conclusion

Thyroid Vt40 highly predicted the risk of hypothyroidism after IMRT for NPC patients. We recommended plan optimization objectives to reduce thyroid Vt40 to 80%.

Trial registration: Retrospectively registered.

Association between Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis and the Incidence of Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Background

It is controversial and unclear how N-stage would increase the risk of incidence of hypothyroidism (HT) for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) after radiotherapy. Our study aimed to explore the correlation between cervical lymph node metastasis and the incidence of HT in NPC.

Materials and Methods

A total of 206 patients with NPC treated at the Cancer Hospital of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and their clinical information were retrospectively collected. A series of univariate logistic regression models were performed to explore the association of clinical and lymph node indices with the development of HT. Significant features in univariate analysis were then used to construct three prediction models, for HT prediction using multivariate logistic regression based on Bayesian information criterion. Prediction performance of those models was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) using 10-fold cross-validation.

Results

A total of 111 patients developed HT, and the incidence of HT in N_2–3 and N_0–1 patients was 58.82% and 44.29%, respectively. Compared to Model 1 (consisted of pretreatment TSH concentration, thyroid volume, and N-stage) whose AUCs were 0.801 and 0.766 in training and validation sets, with N-stage be replaced by shortest distance from thyroid, Model 2 achieved more stable AUCs of 0.824 and 0.801. While with numbers of positive lymph nodes in Level IIb additionally added, Model 3 improved its AUCs to 0.841 and 0.813.

Conclusion

The shortest distance between the lymph nodes and thyroid gland and the number of lymph nodes in IIb are better predictors of radiation-induced HT than the N-stage.

Dysphagia, hypothyroidism, and osteoradionecrosis after radiation therapy for head and neck cancer

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the long-term side effects of radiation therapy (RT) for head and neck cancer (HNC).

METHODS

Retrospective chart analysis of all 688 HNC patients treated during 2010-2015 at Turku University Hospital, Finland. All patients who survived for more than a year after RT/chemoRT were included (n = 233). Intensity modulated RT (IMRT) with standard fractionation was applied in each case.

RESULTS

One hundred and six patients (45%) reported persisting dysphagia, for which neck RT increased risk. Definitive neck RT to high-risk volume did not increase late toxicity risks compared to elective neck RT. Radiation-induced hypothyroidism (29%, n = 67) was more common among younger patients and females. Osteoradionecrosis (12%, n = 29) was more common in the oral cavity cancer group (20.7%, n = 92) compared to all other subsites.

CONCLUSIONS

Late toxicities of RT for HNC are common. Age, gender, tumor subsite, and neck RT affect susceptibility to long-term side effects.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4.

Dose-volume predictors of post-radiation primary hypothyroidism in head and neck cancer: a systematic review

•

This systematic review included 29 studies (n = 4,530 patients) on dosimetric predictors of primary hypothyroidism in HNC.

•

Average crude incidence of primary hypothyroidism after HNC radiotherapy was 41.4%.

•

Thyroid Dmean and V50 were the most widely reported dosimetric predictors for hypothyroidism.

•

Thyroid volume is a predictor of hypothyroidism (pooled aOR 0.89 per 1 cc increment) independent of radiation dosimetry.

•

Thyroid gland constraints individualized for thyroid volume are crucial in HNC radiotherapy.

Background and Purpose

This systematic review aims to identify radiation dose-volume predictors of primary hypothyroidism after radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC).

Materials and methods

We performed a systematic literature search of Medline, EMBASE and Web of Science from database inception to July 1, 2021 for articles that discuss radiation dose-volume predictors of post-radiation primary hypothyroidism in patients with HNC. Data on the incidence, clinical risk factors and radiation dose-volume parameters were extracted. A meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to estimate the pooled odds ratio (OR) of thyroid volume as a predictor of the risk of post-radiation hypothyroidism, adjusted for thyroid radiation dosimetry.

Results

Our search identified 29 observational studies involving 4,530 patients. With median follow-up durations ranging from 1.0 to 5.3 years, the average crude incidence of post-radiation primary hypothyroidism was 41.4 % (range, 10 %–57 %). Multiple radiation dose-volume parameters were associated with post-radiation primary hypothyroidism, including the thyroid mean dose (Dmean), minimum dose, V25, V30, V35, V45, V50, V30–60, VS45 and VS60. Thyroid Dmean and V50 were the most frequently proposed dosimetric predictors. The pooled adjusted OR of thyroid volume on the risk of post-radiation primary hypothyroidism was 0.89 (95 % confidence interval, 0.85–0.93; p < 0.001) per 1 cc increment.

Conclusion

Post-radiation primary hypothyroidism is a common late complication after radiotherapy for HNC. Minimizing inadvertent exposure of the thyroid gland to radiation is crucial to prevent this late complication. Radiation dose-volume constraints individualized for thyroid volume should be considered in HNC radiotherapy planning.

Outcomes of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy

Nasopharyngeal cancer shows a good response to intensity-modulated radiotherapy. However, there is no clear evidence for the benefits of routine use of image-guided radiotherapy. The purpose of this study was to perform a retrospective investigation of the treatment outcomes, treatment-related complications and prognostic factors for nasopharyngeal cancer treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy and image-guided radiotherapy techniques. Retrospective analysis was performed on 326 consecutive nasopharyngeal cancer patients treated between 2004 and 2015. Potentially significant patient-related and treatment-related variables were analyzed. Radiation-related complications were recorded. The 5-year overall survival and disease-free survival rates of these patients were 77.9% and 70.5%, respectively. Age, AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) stage, retropharyngeal lymphadenopathy, treatment interruption and body mass index were independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Age, AJCC stage, retropharyngeal lymphadenopathy, image-guided radiotherapy and body mass index were independent prognostic factors for disease-free survival. In conclusion, intensity-modulated radiotherapy significantly improves the treatment outcomes of nasopharyngeal cancer. With the aid of image-guided radiotherapy, the advantage of intensity-modulated radiotherapy might be further amplified.

Research progress of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in head and neck cancer

This paper reviews the factors related to hypothyroidism after radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer to facilitate the prevention of radiation-induced hypothyroidism and reduce its incidence. Hypothyroidism is a common complication after radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer, wherein the higher the radiation dose to the thyroid and pituitary gland, the higher the incidence of hypothyroidism. With prolonged follow-up time, the incidence of hypothyroidism gradually increases. Intensity modulated radiotherapy should limit the dose to the thyroid, which would reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism. In addition, the risk factors for hypothyroidism include small thyroid volume size, female sex, and previous neck surgery. The incidence of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in head and neck cancer is related to the radiation dose, radiotherapy technique, thyroid volume, sex, and age. A prospective, large sample and long-term follow-up study should be carried out to establish a model of normal tissue complications that are likely to be related to radiation-induced hypothyroidism.

NTCP model for hypothyroidism after supraclavicular-directed radiation therapy for breast cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Hypothyroidism (HT) is a well-known complication of radiation (RT) that includes supraclavicular (SCV) fields. We analyzed breast cancer patients who received SCV-directed RT to evaluate predictors of HT and developed the first normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for HT specific to breast cancer patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

192 breast cancer patients received SCV-directed RT between 2007 and 2019 and met inclusion criteria. Individual dose-volume histograms were analyzed to determine thyroid volume within and outside specific isodose lines as well as minimum, mean, and maximum doses. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess potential clinical and treatment factors for the development of hypothyroidism. An NTCP model was created, and model validation was performed.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven patients (19.3%) developed HT following SCV-directed RT at a median 25 months (range: 2-83 months). Multivariable analysis revealed longer length of follow-up (p = 0.015) and larger thyroid volume receiving less than 20 Gy (CV20Gy[cc]; p = 0.045) were significant prognostic factors (p = 0.039). IMRT was not associated with an increased risk of hypothyroidism (p = 0.28) despite lower CV20Gy[cc] (p = 0.0002). On NTCP modeling, CV20Gy[cc] ≥ 8.5 cc was associated with a risk of HT < 15%. For smaller thyroids, mean dose and thyroid volume were found to be predictive of HT risk. Model validation demonstrated comparable performances between our model and other published models (AUC 0.69-0.72).

CONCLUSION

NTCP modeling within our patient cohort suggested that greater than 8.5 cc thyroid volume receiving less than 20 Gy may be a recommended dosimetric guideline to minimize HT risk in breast cancer patients receiving SCV-directed RT.

Hematological Indexes Can Be Used to Predict the Incidence of Hypothyroidism in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients after Radiotherapy

Background

This study explored the relationship between thyroid-associated antibodies, immune cells, and hypothyroidism to establish a predictive model for the incidence of hypothyroidism in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) after radiotherapy.

Methods

A total of 170 patients with NPC treated at the Cancer Hospital of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences between January 2015 and August 2018 were included. The complete blood count, biochemical, coagulation function, immune cells, and thyroid-associated antibodies tested before radiotherapy were evaluated. A logistic regression model was performed to elucidate which hematological indexes were related to hypothyroidism development. A predictive model for the incidence of hypothyroidism was established. Internal verification of the multifactor model was performed using the tenfold cross-validation method.

Results

The univariate analysis showed that immune cells had no statistically significant differences among the patients with and without hypothyroidism. Sex, N-stage, antithyroid peroxidase antibody (TPO-Ab), antithyroglobulin antibody (TG-Ab), thyroglobulin (TG), and fibrinogen (Fb) were associated with hypothyroidism. Males and early N-stage were protective factors of thyroid function, whereas increases in TPO-Ab, TG-Ab, TG, and Fb counts were associated with an increased rate of hypothyroidism incidence. The multivariate analysis showed that TPO-Ab, TG-Ab, TG, and Fb were independent predictors of hypothyroidism. The comprehensive effect of the significant model, including TPO-Ab, TG-Ab, TG, and Fb counts, represented the optimal method of predicting the incidence of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (AUC = 0.796). Tenfold cross-validation methods were applied for internal validation. The AUCs of the training and testing sets were 0.792 and 0.798, respectively.

Conclusion

A model combining TPO-Ab, TG-Ab, TG, and Fb can be used to screen populations at a high risk of developing hypothyroidism after radiotherapy.

Thyroid V50 is a risk factor for hypothyroidism in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

We investigated the risk factors of radiation-induced thyroid dysfunction, then combined the clinical factors and optimum thyroid dosimetric parameters to predict the incidence rate of hypothyroidism (HT) and to guide individualized treatment.

METHODS

A total of 206 patients with histologically proven nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated at the Cancer Hospital of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences between January 2015 and August 2018 were included. Dose-volume histogram (DVH) data, including mean dose, absolute volume, V₂₀, V₂₅, V₃₀, V₃₅, V₄₀, V₄₅, V_50, V₅₅, and V₆₀ were extracted and used as dosimetric parameters. A logistic regression analysis model was built to identify predictors related to HT occurring within 2 years.

RESULTS

Sex, N stage, thyroid volume, mean thyroid dose, and thyroid V₂₀ and V₅₀ were significantly different between patients with and without HT. Logistic regression analysis showed that N stage, thyroid volume, and thyroid V₅₀ were independent predictors of HT. The radiosensitivity of the thyroid decreased as the thyroid volume increased. Patients with N stage > 1 had significantly higher HT incidence (37.38%) than patients with N stage ≤1 (13.11%). The incidence of HT was 54.55% in patients with thyroid V₅₀ > 24% and was 34.15% in patients with thyroid V₅₀ ≤ 24%.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of HT is significantly associated with N stage, thyroid volume, and thyroid V₅₀. More attention should be paid to patients with NPC with thyroid volume ≤ 12.82 cm³ and advanced N stage disease.

Dose-volume derived nomogram as a reliable predictor of radiotherapy-induced hypothyroidism in head and neck cancer patients

Background

The aim of this study was to determine the possible predictive value of various dosimetric parameters on the development of hypothyroidism (HT) in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with (chemo)radiotherapy.

Patients and methods

This study included 156 patients with HNSCC who were treated with (chemo)radiotherapy in a primary or postoperative setting between August 2012 and September 2017. Dose-volume parameters as well as V10 toV70, D02 to D98, and the VS10 to VS70 were evaluated. The patients’ hormone status was regularly assessed during follow-up. A nomogram (score) was constructed, and the Kaplan-Maier curves and Log-Rank test were used to demonstrate the difference in incidence of HT between cut-off values of specific variables.

Results

After a median follow-up of 23.0 (12.0–38.5) months, 70 (44.9%) patients developed HT. In univariate analysis, VS65, Dmin, V50, and total thyroid volume (TTV) had the highest accuracy in predicting HT. In a multivariate model, HT was associated with lower TTV (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.11–0.87, P = 0.026) and Dmin (OR 9.83, 95% CI 1.89–108.08, P = 0.042). Hypothyroidism risk score (HRS) was constructed as a regression equation and comprised TTV and Dmin. HRS had an AUC of 0.709 (95% CI 0.627–0.791). HT occurred in 13 (20.0%) patients with a score < 7.1 and in 57 (62.6%) patients with a score > 7.1.

Conclusions

The dose volume parameters VS65, Dmin, V50, and TTV had the highest accuracy in predicting HT. The HRS may be a useful tool in detecting patients with high risk for radiation-induced hypothyroidism.

International Guideline on Dose Prioritization and Acceptance Criteria in Radiation Therapy Planning for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

PURPOSE

The treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma requires high radiation doses. The balance of the risks of local recurrence owing to inadequate tumor coverage versus the potential damage to the adjacent organs at risk (OARs) is of critical importance. With advancements in technology, high target conformality is possible. Nonetheless, to achieve the best possible dose distribution, optimal setting of dose targets and dose prioritization for tumor volumes and various OARs is fundamental. Radiation doses should always be guided by the As Low As Reasonably Practicable principle. There are marked variations in practice. This study aimed to develop a guideline to serve as a global practical reference.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A literature search on dose tolerances and normal-tissue complications after treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma was conducted. In addition, published guidelines and protocols on dose prioritization and constraints were reviewed. A text document and preliminary set of variants was circulated to a panel of international experts with publications or extensive experience in the field. An anonymized voting process was conducted to rank the proposed variants. A summary of the initial voting and different opinions expressed by members were then recirculated to the whole panel for review and reconsideration. Based on the comments of the panel, a refined second proposal was recirculated to the same panel. The current guideline was based on majority voting after repeated iteration for final agreement.

RESULTS

Variation in opinion among international experts was repeatedly iterated to develop a guideline describing appropriate dose prioritization and constraints. The percentage of final agreement on the recommended parameters and alternative views is shown. The rationale for the recommendations and the limitations of current evidence are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Through this comprehensive review of available evidence and interactive exchange of vast experience by international experts, a guideline was developed to provide a practical reference for setting dose prioritization and acceptance criteria for tumor volumes and OARs. The final decision on the treatment prescription should be based on the individual clinical situation and the patient's acceptance of optimal balance of risk.

Thyroid dose-volume thresholds for the risk of radiation-related hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy-A single-institution study

BACKGROUND

To identify thyroid dose-volume thresholds for radiotherapy (RT)-related hypothyroidism (HT) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity-modulated RT (IMRT). In this way, we desired to guide the design of treatment plans and, finally, lower HT prevalence.

METHODS

In total, 345 NPC patients treated with IMRT were evaluated retrospectively during a median follow-up of 45.2 (range, 11.3-64.9) months. Serum-based assessments of thyroid function before and after IMRT were monitored periodically. Thyroid dose-volume parameters were analyzed for their association with HT risk.

RESULTS

In total, 44.1% of patients (152/345) developed primary HT. Analyses of thyroid dose-volume parameters identified a stringent dose-volume histogram (DVH) threshold defined by V_25Gy (the percentage thyroid volume that receives >25 Gy, not the absolute volume) ≤60%, V_35Gy  ≤ 55%, and V_45Gy  ≤ 45%. Patients whose thyroid DVHs satisfied these constraints had a lower prevalence of 2-year HT compared with the overall prevalence (13.2% vs 25.8%, P < .001). Another DVH was defined by V_25Gy  > 95%, V_35Gy  > 90%, and V_45Gy  > 75%, and patients whose thyroid DVHs satisfied with these constraints had a higher prevalence of 2-year HT than the overall incidence (36.0% vs 25.8%, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

We recommend V_25Gy  ≤ 60%, V_35Gy  ≤ 55%, and V_45Gy  ≤ 45% as the "stringent" DVH line, and V_25Gy  > 95%, V_35Gy  > 90%, and V_45Gy  > 75% as the "inhibition" DVH line, under the precondition of not compromising the target coverage. These findings could help in the design of individual treatment plans and, eventually, to lowering of HT prevalence.

Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism After Radical Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

PURPOSE

To evaluate 2 published normal tissue complication probability models for radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) on a large cohort of oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) patients who were treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

OPC patients treated with retrievable IMRT Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOMs) data and available baseline and follow-up thyroid function tests were included. Mean dose (Dmean) to the thyroid gland (TG) and its volume were calculated. The study outcome was clinical HT at least 6 months after radiation therapy, which was defined as grade ≥2 HT per Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grading system (symptomatic hypothyroidism that required thyroid replacement therapy). Regression analyses and Wilcoxon rank-sum test were used. Receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve for the fitted model were calculated.

RESULTS

In the study, 360 OPC patients were included. The median age was 58 years. Most tumors (51%) originated from the base of tongue. IMRT-split field was used in 95%, and median radiation therapy dose was 69.96 Gy. In the study, 233 patients (65%) developed clinical RHT that required thyroid replacement therapy. On multivariate analysis higher Dmean and smaller TG volume maintained the statistically significant association with the risk of clinical RHT (P < .0001). Dmean was significantly higher in patients with clinical RHT versus those without (50 vs 42 Gy, P < .0001). Patients with RHT had smaller TG volume compared with those without (11.8 compared with 12.8 mL, P < .0001). AUC of 0.72 and 0.66 were identified for fitted model versus for the applied Boomsma et al and Cella et al models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Volume and Dmean of the TG are important predictors of clinical RHT and shall be integrated into normal tissue complication probability models for RHT. Dmean and thyroid volume should be considered during the IMRT plan optimization in OPC patients.

A review on the dosimetrical and radiobiological prediction of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in radiation therapy of head-and-neck cancer, breast cancer, and Hodgkin’s lymphoma survivors

A review on the radiobiological modeling of radiation-induced hypothyroidism after radiation therapy of head-and-neck cancers, breast cancer, and Hodgkin’s lymphoma is presented. The current review is based on data relating to dose-volume constrains and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) as a function of either radiobiological or (pre)treatment-clinical parameters. Also, these data were explored in order to provide more helpful criteria for radiobiological optimization of treatment plans involving thyroid gland as a critical normal organ.

Revisiting the dose constraints for head and neck OARs in the current era of IMRT

Head and neck cancer poses a particular challenge in radiation therapy, whilst being an effective treatment modality it requires very high doses of radiation to provide effective therapy. This is further complicated by the fact that the head and neck region contains a large number of radiosensitive tissues, often resulting in patients experiencing debilitating normal tissue complications. In the era of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatments can be delivered using non-uniform dose distributions selectively aimed at reducing the dose to critical organs-at-risk while still adequately covering the tumor target. Dose-volume constraints for the different risk organs play a vital role in one's ability to devise the best IMRT treatment plan for a head and neck cancer patient. To this end, it is pivotal to have access to the latest and most relevant dose constraints available and as such the goal of this review is to provide a summary of suggested dose-volume constraints for head and neck cancer RT that have been published after the QUANTEC reports were made available in early 2010.

Pattern of radiation-induced thyroid gland changes in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients in 48 months after radiotherapy

OBJECTIVES

Radiation-induced hypothyroidism is the most common thyroid disorder after radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. This study evaluated the pattern of radiation-induced thyroid gland changes in 48 months after radiotherapy in NPC patients and the association of hypothyroidism incidence with thyroid dose.

METHODS

Fifty-six NPC patients treated by intensity modulated radiotherapy in 2013 were recruited. All patients received baseline thyroid hormones (fT3, fT4 and TSH) tests and CT scan before radiotherapy. Repeated measures of the thyroid hormones and gland volume were performed at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 48 months after treatment. Trend lines of the thyroid volume and hormone level changes against time were plotted. The incidence of hypothyroidism patients and its relationship with the dose were also evaluated.

RESULTS

The mean thyroid volume followed a decreasing trend after radiotherapy, reaching a minimum (-39.8%) at 30 months and slightly increased afterward. The fT4 level followed a similar pattern with its mean value dropped by 21.5% at 30 months and became steady after 36 months. TSH level showed gradual rise from just after radiotherapy, reaching a peak at 24 months and became relatively steady after 36 months. The incidence of hypothyroidism increased to a maximum at 24 months (28.6%) and dropped afterwards. Thyroid Dmean and D50 were significantly correlated with hypothyroidism incidence in 12 to 30 months (ρ > 0.40, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The patterns of radiation induced thyroid volume shrinkage and fT4 level reduction were similar, with both of them showed decreasing trend from 0 to 30 months. The thyroid volume and function reached a relatively steady state after 36 months. The incidence of hypothyroidism increased up to 24 months and its frequency was associated with the thyroid dose.

Validation of previously reported predictors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal cancer patients treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy, a post hoc analysis from a Phase III randomized trial

This study aimed to validate previously reported dosimetric parameters, including thyroid volume, mean dose, and percentage thyroid volume, receiving at least 40, 45 and 50 Gy (V40, V45 and V50), absolute thyroid volume spared (VS) from 45, 50 and 60 Gy (VS45, VS50 and VS60), and clinical factors affecting the development of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT). A post hoc analysis was performed in 178 euthyroid nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) patients from a Phase III study comparing sequential versus simultaneous-integrated boost intensity-modulated radiation therapy. RHT was determined by increased thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) with or without reduced free thyroxin, regardless of symptoms. The median follow-up time was 42.5 months. The 1-, 2- and 3-year freedom from RHT rates were 78.4%, 56.4% and 43.4%, respectively. The median latency period was 21 months. The thyroid gland received a median mean dose of 53.5 Gy. Female gender, smaller thyroid volume, higher pretreatment TSH level (≥1.55 μU/ml) and VS60 < 10 cm3 were significantly associated with RHT in univariate analyses. Only pretreatment TSH ≥ 1.55 μU/ml and VS60 < 10 cm3 were significant predictors in multivariate analysis. Our results suggested that patients with pretreatment TSH ≥ 1.55 μU/ml should be cautious about the risk of RHT. The VS60 ≥ 10 cm3 is recommended for treatment planning.

Development of a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this study were to build a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients and to compare it with other four published NTCP models to evaluate its efficacy.

METHODS

Medical notes of 174 NPC patients after radiotherapy were reviewed. Biochemical hypothyroidism was defined as an elevated level of serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) value with a normal or decreased level of serum free thyroxine (fT4) after radiotherapy. Logistic regression with leave-one-out cross-validation was performed to establish the NTCP model. Model performance was evaluated and compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in our NPC cohort.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 24 months, 39 (22.4%) patients developed biochemical hypothyroidism. Gender, chemotherapy, the percentage thyroid volume receiving more than 50 Gy (V50), and the maximum dose of the pituitary (Pmax) were identified as the most predictive factors for RHT. A NTCP model based on these four parameters were developed. The model comparison was made in our NPC cohort and our NTCP model performed better in RHT prediction than the other four models.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a four-variable NTCP model for biochemical hypothyroidism in NPC patients post-radiotherapy. Our NTCP model for RHT presents a high prediction capability.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This is a retrospective study without registration.

Delineation of Neck Clinical Target Volume Specific to Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Based on Lymph Node Distribution and the International Consensus Guidelines

PURPOSE

To establish the regional lymph node (LN) distribution probability map and draw the neck clinical target volume specific to nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

One thousand patients with pathologically proven NPC were enrolled from January 2010 to December 2011. The center point of the LNs with a minimal axial diameter of ≥4 mm was marked on a single treatment planning computed tomography scan. The neck LN levels I to X using the 2013 updated international consensus guidelines were also contoured. LN distribution probability maps and distribution curves were established. The relationships between the LN distribution and consensus guidelines were analyzed to propose modifications for clinical target volume boundaries specific to NPC.

RESULTS

A total of 10,651 LNs from 959 patients were marked. Based on the distribution of LNs and consensus guidelines, most of the LN levels defined in the 2013 updated consensus guidelines were confirmed to be comprehensive and applicable for NPC. However, for level Vb, 13.3% of cases (11 of 83) had LNs beyond the posteromedial border. For level VIIa (retropharyngeal LN), 1.5% of cases (12 of 819) had LNs above the cranial boundary, and 5 cases had LNs that emerged in the medial group. Moreover, we confirmed that no LN had been detected in certain areas of levels Ib, II, IVa, and Vc. Accordingly, a new level VIIc was proposed to include the medial group of retropharyngeal LNs, moderately extended boundaries for levels Vb and VIIa were recommended, and reduced boundaries are possibly adaptable for levels Ib, II, IV, and Vc.

CONCLUSIONS

Most LN levels in the 2013 updated consensus guidelines are comprehensive and applicable for NPC. We have proposed a new level VIIc to include a medial group of retropharyngeal LNs, recommended moderate extended boundaries for levels Vb and VIIa, and suggested that the boundaries for levels Ib, II, IV, and Vc might be reduced.

Hypothyroidism

Hypothyroidism is a common condition of thyroid hormone deficiency, which is readily diagnosed and managed but potentially fatal in severe cases if untreated. The definition of hypothyroidism is based on statistical reference ranges of the relevant biochemical parameters and is increasingly a matter of debate. Clinical manifestations of hypothyroidism range from life threatening to no signs or symptoms. The most common symptoms in adults are fatigue, lethargy, cold intolerance, weight gain, constipation, change in voice, and dry skin, but clinical presentation can differ with age and sex, among other factors. The standard treatment is thyroid hormone replacement therapy with levothyroxine. However, a substantial proportion of patients who reach biochemical treatment targets have persistent complaints. In this Seminar, we discuss the epidemiology, causes, and symptoms of hypothyroidism; summarise evidence on diagnosis, long-term risk, treatment, and management; and highlight future directions for research.

Nomogram for radiation-induced hypothyroidism prediction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma after treatment

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) prediction.

METHODS

We collected data from 164 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in our previous prospective study. Biochemical hypothyroidism was defined as a serum thyroid-stimulating hormone level greater than the normal value. We collected both clinical and dose-volume factors. A univariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify RHT risk factors. Optimal predictors were selected according to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). We then selected the Cox regression models that best balanced the prediction performance and practicability to build a nomogram for RHT prediction.

RESULTS

There were 38 (23.2%) patients who developed RHT, and the median follow-up was 24 months. The univariate Cox regression analysis indicated that gender, minimum dose, mean dose (D_mean) and V₂₅-V₆₀ [V_x (%), the percentage of thyroid volume receiving >x Gy] of the thyroid were significantly associated with RHT. The variables of gender, receiving chemotherapy or not (chemo), D_mean and V₅₀ were selected using the LASSO analysis. A nomogram based on a three-variable (gender, chemo and V₅₀) Cox regression model was constructed, and its concordance index was 0.72. Good accordance between prediction and observation was showed by calibration curves in the probability of RHT at 18, 24 and 30 months.

CONCLUSION

This study built a nomogram for RHT in NPC survivors by analyzing both clinical and dose-volume parameters using LASSO. Thus, the individual dose constraint could be achieved in a visual format. Advances in knowledge: This study used LASSO to more accurately address the multicollinear problem between variables. The resulting nomogram will help physicians predict RHT.