Using machine learning methods to predict hepatic encephalopathy in cirrhotic patients with unbalanced data

AI in Hepatology: Revolutionizing the Diagnosis and Management of Liver Disease

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into hepatology is revolutionizing the diagnosis and management of liver diseases amidst a rising global burden of conditions like metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). AI harnesses vast datasets and complex algorithms to enhance clinical decision making and patient outcomes. AI's applications in hepatology span a variety of conditions, including autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, primary sclerosing cholangitis, MASLD, hepatitis B, and hepatocellular carcinoma. It enables early detection, predicts disease progression, and supports more precise treatment strategies. Despite its transformative potential, challenges remain, including data integration, algorithm transparency, and computational demands. This review examines the current state of AI in hepatology, exploring its applications, limitations, and the opportunities it presents to enhance liver health and care delivery.

Construction of a prediction model for hepatic encephalopathy in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

OBJECTIVE

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) that requires early detection and intervention to positively impact patient prognosis. This study aimed to develop a reliable model to predict HE in ACLF patients during hospitalization.

METHODS

Retrospectively recruiting 255 hepatitis B-related ACLF patients, including 67 who developed HE during hospitalization, the study analysed clinical data and biochemical indices collected during the first week of admission. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to identify characteristic predictors for hospitalization HE events, and a logistic regression model was subsequently developed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and bootstrap resampling were used to evaluate the model's discrimination, consistency, and accuracy, and a nomogram was created to visualize the model. An external validation cohort of 236 liver failure patients collected from the same medical centre between 2007 and 2010 was used to validate the model.

RESULTS

The study found that blood urea nitrogen (BUN), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR), serum ammonia, and infection complications during hospitalization were risk factors for HE in ACLF patients. The new model predicted the development of HE in ACLF patients with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 85.2%, which was superior to other models. The best threshold for the new model was 0.28, resulting in a specificity of 81.4% and a sensitivity of 80.6%. In the validation group, the new model showed similar results, with an AUROC of 79% and a specificity of 83.6% and a sensitivity of 56.6%.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and validated a new prediction model for HE in ACLF patients offering a useful tool for early identification of patients with a high risk of HE in clinical settings. However, to ascertain the model's general effectiveness, future prospective multicentre studies are warranted.

Hepatic encephalopathy: experimental drugs in development and therapeutic potential

INTRODUCTION

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) presents a complex pathophysiology, creating multiple potential treatment avenues. This review covers current and emerging treatments for HE.

AREAS COVERED

Standard therapies, including non-absorbable disaccharides and rifaximin, are widely used but show inconsistent efficacy. Alternatives such as polyethylene glycol and L-ornithine L-aspartate have been effective in certain cases. Advancements in understanding HE reveal a growing need for personalized treatments. Novel approaches targeting immune modulation and neuroinflammation are under investigation, though clinical translation is slow. Nutritional interventions and fecal microbiota transplantation show potential but lack robust evidence. Innovative therapies like gene and cell therapies, as well as extracellular vesicles from mesenchymal stem cells, present promising avenues for liver disease treatment, potentially benefiting HE.

EXPERT OPINION

A key challenge in HE research is the design of randomized clinical trials, which often suffer from small sample sizes, heterogeneity in patient population, and inconsistent blinding. Additionally, the multifactorial nature of HE, together with a high spontaneous response rate, complicates efforts to isolate treatment effects. Despite current limitations, ongoing research and technological advances hold promise for more effective and individualized HE treatments in the future.

Processing imbalanced medical data at the data level with assisted-reproduction data as an example

OBJECTIVE

Data imbalance is a pervasive issue in medical data mining, often leading to biased and unreliable predictive models. This study aims to address the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate the impact of data imbalance on classification models. We focus on quantifying the effects of different imbalance degrees and sample sizes on model performance, identifying optimal cut-off values, and evaluating the efficacy of various methods to enhance model accuracy in highly imbalanced and small sample size scenarios.

METHODS

We collected medical records of patients receiving assisted reproductive treatment in a reproductive medicine center. Random forest was used to screen the key variables for the prediction target. Various datasets with different imbalance degrees and sample sizes were constructed to compare the classification performance of logistic regression models. Metrics such as AUC, G-mean, F1-Score, Accuracy, Recall, and Precision were used for evaluation. Four imbalance treatment methods (SMOTE, ADASYN, OSS, and CNN) were applied to datasets with low positive rates and small sample sizes to assess their effectiveness.

RESULTS

The logistic model's performance was low when the positive rate was below 10% but stabilized beyond this threshold. Similarly, sample sizes below 1200 yielded poor results, with improvement seen above this threshold. For robustness, the optimal cut-offs for positive rate and sample size were identified as 15% and 1500, respectively. SMOTE and ADASYN oversampling significantly improved classification performance in datasets with low positive rates and small sample sizes.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identifies a positive rate of 15% and a sample size of 1500 as optimal cut-offs for stable logistic model performance. For datasets with low positive rates and small sample sizes, SMOTE and ADASYN are recommended to improve balance and model accuracy.

Application of the Unbalanced Ensemble Algorithm for Prognostic Prediction Outcomes of All-Cause Mortality in Coronary Heart Disease Patients Comorbid with Hypertension

Purpose

This study sought to develop an unbalanced-ensemble model that could accurately predict death outcomes of patients with comorbid coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension and evaluate the factors contributing to death.

Patients and Methods

Medical records of 1058 patients with coronary heart disease combined with hypertension and excluding those acute coronary syndrome were collected. Patients were followed-up at the first, third, sixth, and twelfth months after discharge to record death events. Follow-up ended two years after discharge. Patients were divided into survival and nonsurvival groups. According to medical records, gender, smoking, drinking, COPD, cerebral stroke, diabetes, hyperhomocysteinemia, heart failure and renal insufficiency of the two groups were sorted and compared and other influencing factors of the two groups, feature selection was carried out to construct models. Owing to data unbalance, we developed four unbalanced-ensemble prediction models based on Balanced Random Forest (BRF), EasyEnsemble, RUSBoost, SMOTEBoost and the two base classification algorithms based on AdaBoost and Logistic. Each model was optimised using hyperparameters based on GridSearchCV and evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, recall, Brier score, and geometric mean (G-mean). Additionally, to understand the influence of variables on model performance, we constructed a SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) model based on the optimal model.

Results

There were significant differences in age, heart rate, COPD, cerebral stroke, heart failure and renal insufficiency in the nonsurvival group compared with the survival group. Among all models, BRF yielded the highest AUC (0.810; 95% CI, 0.778-0.839), sensitivity (0.990; 95% CI, 0.981-1.000), recall (0.990; 95% CI, 0.981-1.000), and G-mean (0.806; 95% CI, 0.778-0.827), and the lowest Brier score (0.181; 95% CI, 0.178-0.185). Therefore, we identified BRF as the optimal model. Furthermore, red blood cell count (RBC), body mass index (BMI), and lactate dehydrogenase were found to be important mortality-associated risk factors.

Conclusion

BRF combined with advanced machine learning methods and SHAP is highly effective and accurately predicts mortality in patients with CHD comorbid with hypertension. This model has the potential to assist clinicians in modifying treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes.

Meta-lasso: new insight on infection prediction after minimally invasive surgery

Surgical site infection (SSI) after minimally invasive lung cancer surgery constitutes an important factor influencing the direct and indirect economic implications, patient prognosis, and the 5-year survival rate for early-stage lung cancer patients. In the realm of predictive healthcare, machine learning algorithms have been instrumental in anticipating various surgical outcomes, including SSI. However, accurately predicting infection after minimally invasive surgery remains a clinical challenge due to the multitude of physiological and surgical factors associated with it. Furthermore, clinical patient data, in addition to being high-dimensional, often exists the long-tail problem, posing difficulties for traditional machine learning algorithms in effectively processing such data. Based on this insight, we propose a novel approach called meta-lasso for infection prediction following minimally invasive surgery. Our approach leverages the sparse learning algorithm lasso regression to select informative features and introduces a meta-learning framework to mitigate bias towards the dominant class. We conducted a retrospective cohort study on patients who had undergone minimally invasive surgery for lung cancer at Shanghai Chest Hospital between 2018 and 2020. The evaluation encompassed key performance metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, precision (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy. Our approach has surpassed the performance of logistic regression, random forest, Naive Bayes classifier, gradient boosting decision tree, ANN, and lasso regression, with sensitivity at 0.798, specificity at 0.779, precision at 0.789, NPV at 0.798, and accuracy at 0.788 and has greatly improved the classification performance of the inferior class.

An explainable artificial intelligence framework for risk prediction of COPD in smokers

BACKGROUND

Since the inconspicuous nature of early signs associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), individuals often remain unidentified, leading to suboptimal opportunities for timely prevention and treatment. The purpose of this study was to create an explainable artificial intelligence framework combining data preprocessing methods, machine learning methods, and model interpretability methods to identify people at high risk of COPD in the smoking population and to provide a reasonable interpretation of model predictions.

METHODS

The data comprised questionnaire information, physical examination data and results of pulmonary function tests before and after bronchodilatation. First, the factorial analysis for mixed data (FAMD), Boruta and NRSBoundary-SMOTE resampling methods were used to solve the missing data, high dimensionality and category imbalance problems. Then, seven classification models (CatBoost, NGBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, random forest, SVM and logistic regression) were applied to model the risk level, and the best machine learning (ML) model's decisions were explained using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method and partial dependence plot (PDP).

RESULTS

In the smoking population, age and 14 other variables were significant factors for predicting COPD. The CatBoost, random forest, and logistic regression models performed reasonably well in unbalanced datasets. CatBoost with NRSBoundary-SMOTE had the best classification performance in balanced datasets when composite indicators (the AUC, F1-score, and G-mean) were used as model comparison criteria. Age, COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score, gross annual income, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), anhelation, respiratory disease, central obesity, use of polluting fuel for household heating, region, use of polluting fuel for household cooking, and wheezing were important factors for predicting COPD in the smoking population.

CONCLUSION

This study combined feature screening methods, unbalanced data processing methods, and advanced machine learning methods to enable early identification of COPD risk groups in the smoking population. COPD risk factors in the smoking population were identified using SHAP and PDP, with the goal of providing theoretical support for targeted screening strategies and smoking population self-management strategies.

Automatic Video-Oculography System for Detection of Minimal Hepatic Encephalopathy Using Machine Learning Tools

This article presents an automatic gaze-tracker system to assist in the detection of minimal hepatic encephalopathy by analyzing eye movements with machine learning tools. To record eye movements, we used video-oculography technology and developed automatic feature-extraction software as well as a machine learning algorithm to assist clinicians in the diagnosis. In order to validate the procedure, we selected a sample (n=47) of cirrhotic patients. Approximately half of them were diagnosed with minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE), a common neurological impairment in patients with liver disease. By using the actual gold standard, the Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score battery, PHES, patients were classified into two groups: cirrhotic patients with MHE and those without MHE. Eye movement tests were carried out on all participants. Using classical statistical concepts, we analyzed the significance of 150 eye movement features, and the most relevant (p-values ≤ 0.05) were selected for training machine learning algorithms. To summarize, while the PHES battery is a time-consuming exploration (between 25-40 min per patient), requiring expert training and not amenable to longitudinal analysis, the automatic video oculography is a simple test that takes between 7 and 10 min per patient and has a sensitivity and a specificity of 93%.

Diabetes mellitus early warning and factor analysis using ensemble Bayesian networks with SMOTE-ENN and Boruta

Diabetes mellitus (DM) has become the third chronic non-infectious disease affecting patients after tumor, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, becoming one of the major public health issues worldwide. Detection of early warning risk factors for DM is key to the prevention of DM, which has been the focus of some previous studies. Therefore, from the perspective of residents' self-management and prevention, this study constructed Bayesian networks (BNs) combining feature screening and multiple resampling techniques for DM monitoring data with a class imbalance in Shanxi Province, China, to detect risk factors in chronic disease monitoring programs and predict the risk of DM. First, univariate analysis and Boruta feature selection algorithm were employed to conduct the preliminary screening of all included risk factors. Then, three resampling techniques, SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE (BL-SMOTE) and SMOTE-ENN, were adopted to deal with data imbalance. Finally, BNs developed by three algorithms (Tabu, Hill-climbing and MMHC) were constructed using the processed data to find the warning factors that strongly correlate with DM. The results showed that the accuracy of DM classification is significantly improved by the BNs constructed by processed data. In particular, the BNs combined with the SMOTE-ENN resampling improved the most, and the BNs constructed by the Tabu algorithm obtained the best classification performance compared with the hill-climbing and MMHC algorithms. The best-performing joint Boruta-SMOTE-ENN-Tabu model showed that the risk factors of DM included family history, age, central obesity, hyperlipidemia, salt reduction, occupation, heart rate, and BMI.

Machine Learning Methods in Real-World Studies of Cardiovascular Disease

Objective:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, and answers are urgently needed regarding many aspects, particularly risk identification and prognosis prediction. Real-world studies with large numbers of observations provide an important basis for CVD research but are constrained by high dimensionality, and missing or unstructured data. Machine learning (ML) methods, including a variety of supervised and unsupervised algorithms, are useful for data governance, and are effective for high dimensional data analysis and imputation in real-world studies. This article reviews the theory, strengths and limitations, and applications of several commonly used ML methods in the CVD field, to provide a reference for further application.

Methods:This article introduces the origin, purpose, theory, advantages and limitations, and applications of multiple commonly used ML algorithms, including hierarchical and k-means clustering, principal component analysis, random forest, support vector machine, and neural networks. An example uses a random forest on the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) data to demonstrate the process and main results of ML application in CVD.

Conclusion:ML methods are effective tools for producing real-world evidence to support clinical decisions and meet clinical needs. This review explains the principles of multiple ML methods in plain language, to provide a reference for further application. Future research is warranted to develop accurate ensemble learning methods for wide application in the medical field.

Potential of vibrational spectroscopy coupled with machine learning as a non-invasive diagnostic method for COVID-19

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Efforts to alleviate the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis showed that rapid, sensitive, and large-scale screening is critical for controlling the current infection and that of ongoing pandemics.

METHODS

Here, we explored the potential of vibrational spectroscopy coupled with machine learning to screen COVID-19 patients in its initial stage. Herein presented is a hybrid classification model called grey wolf optimized support vector machine (GWO-SVM). The proposed model was tested and comprehensively compared with other machine learning models via vibrational spectroscopic fingerprinting including saliva FTIR spectra dataset and serum Raman scattering spectra dataset.

RESULTS

For the unknown vibrational spectra, the presented GWO-SVM model provided an accuracy, specificity and F1_score value of 0.9825, 0.9714 and 0.9778 for saliva FTIR spectra dataset, respectively, while an overall accuracy, specificity and F1_score value of 0.9085, 0.9552 and 0.9036 for serum Raman scattering spectra dataset, respectively, which showed superiority than those of state-of-the-art models, thereby suggesting the suitability of the GWO-SVM model to be adopted in a clinical setting for initial screening of COVID-19 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospectively, the presented vibrational spectroscopy based GWO-SVM model can facilitate in screening of COVID-19 patients and alleviate the medical service burden. Therefore, herein proof-of-concept results showed the chance of vibrational spectroscopy coupled with GWO-SVM model to help COVID-19 diagnosis and have the potential be further used for early screening of other infectious diseases.

Hybrid XGBoost model with hyperparameter tuning for prediction of liver disease with better accuracy

BACKGROUND

Liver disease indicates any pathology that can harm or destroy the liver or prevent it from normal functioning. The global community has recently witnessed an increase in the mortality rate due to liver disease. This could be attributed to many factors, among which are human habits, awareness issues, poor healthcare, and late detection. To curb the growing threats from liver disease, early detection is critical to help reduce the risks and improve treatment outcome. Emerging technologies such as machine learning, as shown in this study, could be deployed to assist in enhancing its prediction and treatment.

AIM

To present a more efficient system for timely prediction of liver disease using a hybrid eXtreme Gradient Boosting model with hyperparameter tuning with a view to assist in early detection, diagnosis, and reduction of risks and mortality associated with the disease.

METHODS

The dataset used in this study consisted of 416 people with liver problems and 167 with no such history. The data were collected from the state of Andhra Pradesh, India, through https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/uciml/indian-liver-patient-records. The population was divided into two sets depending on the disease state of the patient. This binary information was recorded in the attribute "is_patient".

RESULTS

The results indicated that the chi-square automated interaction detection and classification and regression trees models achieved an accuracy level of 71.36% and 73.24%, respectively, which was much better than the conventional method. The proposed solution would assist patients and physicians in tackling the problem of liver disease and ensuring that cases are detected early to prevent it from developing into cirrhosis (scarring) and to enhance the survival of patients. The study showed the potential of machine learning in health care, especially as it concerns disease prediction and monitoring.

CONCLUSION

This study contributed to the knowledge of machine learning application to health and to the efforts toward combating the problem of liver disease. However, relevant authorities have to invest more into machine learning research and other health technologies to maximize their potential.

Application of machine learning algorithms in predicting HIV infection among men who have sex with men: Model development and validation

Background

Continuously growing of HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), as well as the low rate of HIV testing of MSM in China, demonstrates a need for innovative strategies to improve the implementation of HIV prevention. The use of machine learning algorithms is an increasing tendency in disease diagnosis prediction. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models in predicting HIV infection among MSM that can identify individuals at increased risk of HIV acquisition for transmission-reduction interventions.

Methods

We extracted data from MSM sentinel surveillance in Zhejiang province from 2018 to 2020. Univariate logistic regression was used to select significant variables in 2018-2019 data (P < 0.05). After data processing and feature selection, we divided the model development data into two groups by stratified random sampling: training data (70%) and testing data (30%). The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was applied to solve the problem of unbalanced data. The evaluation metrics of model performance were comprised of accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Then, we explored three commonly-used machine learning algorithms to compare with logistic regression (LR), including decision tree (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and random forest (RF). Finally, the four models were validated prospectively with 2020 data from Zhejiang province.

Results

A total of 6,346 MSM were included in model development data, 372 of whom were diagnosed with HIV. In feature selection, 12 variables were selected as model predicting indicators. Compared with LR, the algorithms of DT, SVM, and RF improved the classification prediction performance in SMOTE-processed data, with the AUC of 0.778, 0.856, 0.887, and 0.942, respectively. RF was the best-performing algorithm (accuracy = 0.871, precision = 0.960, recall = 0.775, F-measure = 0.858, and AUC = 0.942). And the RF model still performed well on prospective validation (AUC = 0.846).

Conclusion

Machine learning models are substantially better than conventional LR model and RF should be considered in prediction tools of HIV infection in Chinese MSM. Further studies are needed to optimize and promote these algorithms and evaluate their impact on HIV prevention of MSM.

The Link between Gut Microbiota and Hepatic Encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of cirrhosis that causes neuropsychiatric problems, such as cognitive dysfunction and movement disorders. The link between the microbiota and the host plays a key role in the pathogenesis of HE. The link between the gut microbiome and disease can be positively utilized not only in the diagnosis area of HE but also in the treatment area. Probiotics and prebiotics aim to resolve gut dysbiosis and increase beneficial microbial taxa, while fecal microbiota transplantation aims to address gut dysbiosis through transplantation (FMT) of the gut microbiome from healthy donors. Antibiotics, such as rifaximin, aim to improve cognitive function and hyperammonemia by targeting harmful taxa. Current treatment regimens for HE have achieved some success in treatment by targeting the gut microbiota, however, are still accompanied by limitations and problems. A focused approach should be placed on the establishment of personalized trial designs and therapies for the improvement of future care. This narrative review identifies factors negatively influencing the gut–hepatic–brain axis leading to HE in cirrhosis and explores their relationship with the gut microbiome. We also focused on the evaluation of reported clinical studies on the management and improvement of HE patients with a particular focus on microbiome-targeted therapy.