Considering population variability of electrophysiological models improves the in silico assessment of drug-induced torsadogenic risk

Combining pharmacokinetic and electrophysiological models for early prediction of drug-induced arrhythmogenicity

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In silico methods are gaining attention for predicting drug-induced Torsade de Pointes (TdP) in different stages of drug development. However, many computational models tended not to account for inter-individual response variability due to demographic covariates, such as sex, or physiologic covariates, such as renal function, which may be crucial when predicting TdP. This study aims to compare the effects of drugs in male and female populations with normal and impaired renal function using in silico methods.

METHODS

Pharmacokinetic models considering sex and renal function as covariates were implemented from data published in pharmacokinetic studies. Drug effects were simulated using an electrophysiologically calibrated population of cellular models of 300 males and 300 females. The population of models was built by modifying the endocardial action potential model published by O'Hara et al. (2011) according to the experimentally measured gene expression levels of 12 ion channels.

RESULTS

Fifteen pharmacokinetic models for CiPA drugs were implemented and validated in this study. Eight pharmacokinetic models included the effect of renal function and four the effect of sex. The mean difference in action potential duration (APD) between male and female populations was 24.9 ms (p<0.05). Our simulations indicated that women with impaired renal function were particularly susceptible to drug-induced arrhythmias, whereas healthy men were less prone to TdP. Differences between patient groups were more pronounced for high TdP-risk drugs. The proposed in silico tool also revealed that individuals with impaired renal function, electrophysiologically simulated with hyperkalemia (extracellular potassium concentration [K+]o = 7 mM) exhibited less pronounced APD prolongation than individuals with normal potassium levels. The pharmacokinetic/electrophysiological framework was used to determine the maximum safe dose of dofetilide in different patient groups. As a proof of concept, 3D simulations were also run for dofetilide obtaining QT prolongation in accordance with previously reported clinical values.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents a novel methodology that combines pharmacokinetic and electrophysiological models to incorporate the effects of sex and renal function into in silico drug simulations and highlights their impact on TdP-risk assessment. Furthermore, it may also help inform maximum dose regimens that ensure TdP-related safety in a specific sub-population of patients.

Uncertainty assessment of proarrhythmia predictions derived from multi-level in silico models

In silico methods can be used for an early assessment of arrhythmogenic properties of drug candidates. However, their use for decision-making is conditioned by the possibility to estimate the predictions' uncertainty. This work describes our efforts to develop uncertainty quantification methods for the predictions produced by multi-level proarrhythmia models. In silico models used in this field usually start with experimental or predicted IC50 values that describe drug-induced ion channel blockade. Using such inputs, an electrophysiological model computes how the ion channel inhibition, exerted by a drug in a certain concentration, translates to an altered shape and duration of the action potential in cardiac cells, which can be represented as arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers such as the APD90. Using this framework, we identify the main sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and propose a method based on probabilistic simulations that replaces single-point estimates predicted using multiple input values, including the IC50s and the electrophysiological parameters, by distributions of values. Two selected variability types associated with these inputs are then propagated through the multi-level model to estimate their impact on the uncertainty levels in the output, expressed by means of intervals. The proposed approach yields single predictions of arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers together with value intervals, providing a more comprehensive and realistic description of drug effects on a human population. The methodology was tested by predicting arrhythmogenic biomarkers on a series of twelve well-characterised marketed drugs, belonging to different arrhythmogenic risk classes.

Application of machine learning to improve the efficiency of electrophysiological simulations used for the prediction of drug-induced ventricular arrhythmia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In silico prediction of drug-induced ventricular arrhythmia often requires computationally intensive simulations, making its application tedious and non-interactive. This inconvenience can be mitigated using matrices of precomputed simulation results, allowing instantaneous computation of biomarkers such as action potential duration at 90% of the repolarisation (APD₉₀). However, preparing such matrices can be computationally intensive for the method developers, limiting the range of simulated conditions. In this work, we aim to optimise the generation of these matrices so that they can be obtained with less effort and for a broader range of input values.

METHODS

Machine learning methods were applied, building models trained with only a small fraction of the originally simulated results. The predictive performances of the models were assessed by comparing their predicted values with the actual simulation results, using percentual mean absolute error and mean relative error, as well as the percentage of data with a relative error below 5%.

RESULTS

Our method obtained highly accurate estimations of the original values, leading to a nearly one hundred-fold decrease in computation time. This method also allows precomputing more complex matrices, describing the effect of more ion channels on the APD_90. The best results were obtained by applying Support Vector Machine models, which yielded errors below 1% in most cases. This approach was further validated by predicting the APD₉₀ of a set of 12 CiPA compounds and exporting the optimal settings for predicting APD₉₀ using a different set of ion channels, always with satisfactory results.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method effectively reduces the computational effort required to generate matrices of precomputed electrophysiological simulation values. The same approach can be applied in other fields where computationally costly simulations are applied repeatedly using slightly different input values.

qInward variability-based in-silico proarrhythmic risk assessment of drugs using deep learning model

Many researchers have suggested evaluation methods and Torsades de Pointes (TdP) metrics to assess the proarrhythmic risk of a drug based on the in silico simulation, as part of the Comprehensive in-vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) project. In the previous study, we validated the robustness of 12 in silico features using the ordinal logistic regression (OLR) model by comparing the classification performances of metrics according to the in-vitro experimental datasets used; however, the OLR model using 12 in silico features did not provide desirable results. This study proposed a convolutional neural network (CNN) model using the variability of promising in silico TdP metrics hypothesizing that the variability of in silico features based on beats has more information than the single value of in silico features. We performed the action potential (AP) simulation using a human ventricular myocyte model to calculate seven in silico features representing the electrophysiological cell states of drug effects over 1,000 beats: qNet, qInward, intracellular calcium duration at returning to 50% baseline (CaD50) and 90% baseline (CaD90), AP duration at 50% repolarization (APD50) and 90% repolarization (APD90), and dVm/dtMax_repol. The proposed CNN classifier was trained using 12 train drugs and tested using 16 test drugs among CiPA drugs. The torsadogenic risk of drugs was classified as high, intermediate, and low risks. We determined the CNN classifier by comparing the classification performance according to the variabilities of seven in silico biomarkers computed from the in silico drug simulation using the Chantest dataset. The proposed CNN classifier performed the best when using qInward variability to classify the TdP-risk drugs with 0.94 AUC for high risk and 0.93 AUC for low risk. In addition, the final CNN classifier was validated using the qInward variability obtained after merging three in-vitro datasets, but the model performance decreased to a moderate level of 0.75 and 0.78 AUC. These results suggest the need for the proposed CNN model to be trained and tested using various types of drugs.

Sensitivity Analysis of Cardiac Alternans and Tachyarrhythmia to Ion Channel Conductance Using Population Modeling

Action potential duration (APD) alternans, an alternating phenomenon between action potentials in cardiomyocytes, causes heart arrhythmia when the heart rate is high. However, some of the APD alternans observed in clinical trials occurs under slow heart rate conditions of 100 to 120 bpm, increasing the likelihood of heart arrhythmias such as atrial fibrillation. Advanced studies have identified the occurrence of this type of APD alternans in terms of electrophysiological ion channel currents in cells. However, they only identified physiological phenomena, such as action potential due to random changes in a particular ion channel’s conductivity through ion models specializing in specific ion channel currents. In this study, we performed parameter sensitivity analysis via population modeling using a validated human ventricular physiology model to check the sensitivity of APD alternans to ion channel conductances. Through population modeling, we expressed the changes in alternans onset cycle length (AOCL) and mean APD in AOCL (AO meanAPD) according to the variations in ion channel conductance. Finally, we identified the ion channel that maximally affected the occurrence of APD alternans. AOCL and AO meanAPD were sensitive to changes in the plateau Ca²⁺ current. Accordingly, it was expected that APD alternans would be vulnerable to changes in intracellular calcium concentration.

Cross clinical-experimental-computational qualification of in silico drug trials on human cardiac purkinje cells for proarrhythmia risk prediction

The preclinical identification of drug-induced cardiotoxicity and its translation into human risk are still major challenges in pharmaceutical drug discovery. The ICH S7B Guideline and Q&A on Clinical and Nonclinical Evaluation of QT/QTc Interval Prolongation and Proarrhythmic Potential promotes human in silico drug trials as a novel tool for proarrhythmia risk assessment. To facilitate the use of in silico data in regulatory submissions, explanatory control compounds should be tested and documented to demonstrate consistency between predictions and the historic validation data. This study aims to quantify drug-induced electrophysiological effects on in silico cardiac human Purkinje cells, to compare them with existing in vitro rabbit data, and to assess their accuracy for clinical pro-arrhythmic risk predictions. The effects of 14 reference compounds were quantified in simulations with a population of in silico human cardiac Purkinje models. For each drug dose, five electrophysiological biomarkers were quantified at three pacing frequencies, and results compared with available in vitro experiments and clinical proarrhythmia reports. Three key results were obtained: 1) In silico, repolarization abnormalities in human Purkinje simulations predicted drug-induced arrhythmia for all risky compounds, showing higher predicted accuracy than rabbit experiments; 2) Drug-induced electrophysiological changes observed in human-based simulations showed a high degree of consistency with in vitro rabbit recordings at all pacing frequencies, and depolarization velocity and action potential duration were the most consistent biomarkers; 3) discrepancies observed for dofetilide, sotalol and terfenadine are mainly caused by species differences between humans and rabbit. Taken together, this study demonstrates higher accuracy of in silico methods compared to in vitro animal models for pro-arrhythmic risk prediction, as well as a high degree of consistency with in vitro experiments commonly used in safety pharmacology, supporting the potential for industrial and regulatory adoption of in silico trials for proarrhythmia prediction.