How decisions and the desire for coherency shape subjective preferences over time

Free Will as Defined by the Constrained Disorder Principle: a Restricted, Mandatory, Personalized, Regulated Process for Decision-Making

The concept of free will has challenged physicists, biologists, philosophers, and other professionals for decades. The constrained disorder principle (CDP) is a fundamental law that defines systems according to their inherent variability. It provides mechanisms for adapting to dynamic environments. This work examines the CDP's perspective of free will concerning various free will theories. Per the CDP, systems lack intentions, and the "freedom" to select and act is built into their design. The "freedom" is embedded within the response range determined by the boundaries of the systems' variability. This built-in and self-generating mechanism enables systems to cope with perturbations. According to the CDP, neither dualism nor an unknown metaphysical apparatus dictates choices. Brain variability facilitates cognitive adaptation to complex, unpredictable situations across various environments. Human behaviors and decisions reflect an underlying physical variability in the brain and other organs for dealing with unpredictable noises. Choices are not predetermined but reflect the ongoing adaptation processes to dynamic prssu½res. Malfunctions and disease states are characterized by inappropriate variability, reflecting an inability to respond adequately to perturbations. Incorporating CDP-based interventions can overcome malfunctions and disease states and improve decision processes. CDP-based second-generation artificial intelligence platforms improve interventions and are being evaluated to augment personal development, wellness, and health.

Computational Social Psychology

Social psychologists attempt to explain how we interact by appealing to basic principles of how we think. To make good on this ambition, they are increasingly relying on an interconnected set of formal tools that model inference, attribution, value-guided decision making, and multi-agent interactions. By reviewing progress in each of these areas and highlighting the connections between them, we can better appreciate the structure of social thought and behavior, while also coming to understand when, why, and how formal tools can be useful for social psychologists.

Successful everyday decision making: Combining attributes and associates

How do people make everyday decisions in order to achieve the most successful outcome? Decision making research typically evaluates choices according to their expected utility. However, this research largely focuses on abstract or hypothetical tasks and rarely investigates whether the outcome is successful and satisfying for the decision maker. Instead, we use an everyday decision making task in which participants describe a personally meaningful decision they are currently facing. We investigate the decision processes used to make this decision, and evaluate how successful and satisfying the outcome of the decision is for them. We examine how well analytic, attribute-based processes explain everyday decision making and predict decision outcomes, and we compare these processes to associative processes elicited through free association. We also examine the characteristics of decisions and individuals that are associated with good decision outcomes. Across three experiments we found that: 1) an analytic decision analysis of everyday decisions is not superior to simpler attribute-based processes in predicting decision outcomes; 2) contrary to research linking associative cognition to biases, free association generates valid cues that predict choice and decision outcomes as effectively as attribute-based approaches; 3) contrary to research favouring either attribute-based or associative processes, combining both attribute-based and associates best explains everyday decisions and most accurately predicts decision outcomes; and 4) individuals with a tendency to attempt analytic thinking do not make more successful everyday decisions. Instead, frequency, simplicity, and knowledge of the decision predict success. We propose that attribute-based and associative processes, in combination, both explain everyday decision making and predict successful decision outcomes.

Choice perseverance underlies pursuing a hard-to-get target in an avatar choice task

People sometimes persistently pursue hard-to-get targets. Why people pursue such targets is unclear. Here, we hypothesized that choice perseverance, which is the tendency to repeat the same choice independent of the obtained outcomes, leads individuals to repeatedly choose a hard-to-get target, which consequently increases their preference for the target. To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted an online experiment involving an avatar choice task in which the participants repeatedly selected one avatar, and the selected avatar expressed their valence reactions through facial expressions and voice. We defined “hard-to-get” and “easy-to-get” avatars by manipulating the outcome probability such that the hard-to-get avatars rarely provided a positive reaction when selected, while the easy-to-get avatars frequently did. We found that some participants repeatedly selected hard-to-get avatars (Pursuit group). Based on a simulation, we found that higher choice perseverance accounted for the pursuit of hard-to-get avatars and that the Pursuit group had significantly higher choice perseverance than the No-pursuit group. Model fitting to the choice data also supported that choice perseverance can account for the pursuit of hard-to-get avatars in the Pursuit group. Moreover, we found that although baseline attractiveness was comparable among all avatars used in the choice task, the attractiveness of the hard-to-get avatars was significantly increased only in the Pursuit group. Taken together, we conclude that people with high choice perseverance pursue hard-to-get targets, rendering such targets more attractive. The tolerance for negative outcomes might be an important factor for succeeding in our lives but sometimes triggers problematic behavior, such as stalking. The present findings may contribute to understanding the psychological mechanisms of passion and perseverance for one’s long-term goals, which are more general than the romantic context imitated in avatar choice.

Sequential consumer choice as multi-cued retrieval

Whether adding songs to a playlist or groceries during an online shop, how do we decide what to choose next? We develop a model that predicts such open-ended, sequential choices using a process of cued retrieval from long-term memory. Using the past choice to cue subsequent retrievals, this model predicts the sequential purchases and response times of nearly 5 million grocery purchases made by more than 100,000 online shoppers. Products can be associated in different ways, such as by their episodic association or semantic overlap, and we find that consumers query multiple forms of associative knowledge when retrieving options. Attending to certain knowledge sources, as estimated by our model, predicts important retrieval errors, such as the propensity to forget or add unwanted products. Our results demonstrate how basic memory retrieval mechanisms shape choices in real-world, goal-directed tasks.

Establishment of Land Use Suitability Mapping Criteria Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Practitioners and Beneficiaries

The presence of land use conflicts is often unavoidable as land is finite and a scarce resource. With development as a prime goal, the increasing demands for specific uses make the situation more serious than it was before. In the context of land uses, suitability determines the inherent capacity of the land to perform a defined use with optimum efficiency and sustainability. However, single land use suitability analysis could not answer the overall objective of land allocation. Thus, this study considers the primary and general land uses with the valuable evaluation criteria necessary for simultaneous land use suitability analyses. This paper aims at establishing the relevant and necessary evaluation criteria for Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for land use suitability analysis for residential, industrial, commercial, agricultural, and forest land uses. The factors which could be used as indicators in land suitability analysis were derived from both literature review and through experts’ knowledge. Correspondingly, the relative importance (weights) of the criteria established were derived using pairwise comparisons through the AHP technique readily available for subsequent GIS analysis. Last, the criteria developed are general in nature and could be replicated and/or altered depending upon the local needs and situations.

Analog Resonance Computation: A New Model for Human Cognition

Early models of human cognition appeared to posit the brain as a collection of discrete digital computing modules with specific data processing functions. More recent theories such as the Hierarchically Mechanistic Mind characterize the brain as a massive hierarchy of interconnected and adaptive circuits whose primary aim is to reduce entropy. However, studies in high workload/stress situations show that human behavior is often error prone and seemingly irrational. Rather than regarding such behavior to be uncharacteristic, this paper suggest that such "atypical" behavior provides the best information on which to base theories of human cognition. Rather than using a digital paradigm, human cognition should be seen as an analog computer based on resonating circuits whose primary driver is to constantly extract information from the massively complex and rapidly changing world around us to construct an internal model of reality that allows us to rapidly respond to the threats and opportunities.

Investigating the origin and consequences of endogenous default options in repeated economic choices

Classical value-based decision theories state that economic choices are solely based on the value of available options. Experimental evidence suggests, however, that individuals’ choices are biased towards default options, prompted by the framing of decisions. Although the effects of default options created by exogenous framing–such as how choice options are displayed–are well-documented, little is known about the potential effects and properties of endogenous framing, that is, originating from an individual's internal state. In this study, we investigated the existence and properties of endogenous default options in a task involving choices between risky lotteries. By manipulating and examining the effects of three experimental features–time pressure, time spent on task and relative choice proportion towards a specific option–, we reveal and dissociate two features of endogenous default options which bias individuals’ choices: a natural tendency to prefer certain types of options (natural default), and the tendency to implicitly learn a default option from past choices (learned default). Additional analyses suggest that while the natural default may bias the standard choice process towards an option category, the learned default effects may be attributable to a second independent choice process. Overall, these investigations provide a first experimental evidence of how individuals build and apply diverse endogenous default options in economic decision-making and how this biases their choices.

How decisions and the desire for coherency shape subjective preferences over time

Recent findings suggest a bidirectional relationship between preferences and choices such that what is chosen can become preferred. Yet, it is still commonly held that preferences for individual items are maintained, such as caching a separate value estimate for each experienced option. Instead, we propose that all possible choice options and preferences are represented in a shared, continuous, multidimensional space that supports generalization. Decision making is cast as a learning process that seeks to align choices and preferences to maintain coherency. We formalized an error-driven learning model that updates preferences to align with past choices, which makes repeating those and related choices more likely in the future. The model correctly predicts that making a free choice increases preferences along related attributes. For example, after choosing a political candidate based on trivial information (e.g., they like cats), voters' views on abortion, immigration, and trade subsequently shifted to match their chosen candidate.

Multiscale Computation and Dynamic Attention in Biological and Artificial Intelligence

Biological and artificial intelligence (AI) are often defined by their capacity to achieve a hierarchy of short-term and long-term goals that require incorporating information over time and space at both local and global scales. More advanced forms of this capacity involve the adaptive modulation of integration across scales, which resolve computational inefficiency and explore-exploit dilemmas at the same time. Research in neuroscience and AI have both made progress towards understanding architectures that achieve this. Insight into biological computations come from phenomena such as decision inertia, habit formation, information search, risky choices and foraging. Across these domains, the brain is equipped with mechanisms (such as the dorsal anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) that can represent and modulate across scales, both with top-down control processes and by local to global consolidation as information progresses from sensory to prefrontal areas. Paralleling these biological architectures, progress in AI is marked by innovations in dynamic multiscale modulation, moving from recurrent and convolutional neural networks-with fixed scalings-to attention, transformers, dynamic convolutions, and consciousness priors-which modulate scale to input and increase scale breadth. The use and development of these multiscale innovations in robotic agents, game AI, and natural language processing (NLP) are pushing the boundaries of AI achievements. By juxtaposing biological and artificial intelligence, the present work underscores the critical importance of multiscale processing to general intelligence, as well as highlighting innovations and differences between the future of biological and artificial intelligence.