From information processing to decisions: Formalizing and comparing psychologically plausible choice models

The consistency of peer-reviewers: Assessment of separate parts of the manuscripts vs final recommendations

Delving into the review reports, this paper is aimed at analyzing reviewers` attitudes toward different sections of the manuscripts they review. The research focuses on the consistency of reviewers` evaluation through analysis of their assessment of separate parts of a paper, if it corresponds with the recommendations they made to the editors and whether a paper needs revision or should be accepted/rejected. It is assumed that the assessment of separate parts of a paper should be consistent with the final decision regarding the acceptance or rejection of a manuscript. Based on the analysis presented in this paper it can be concluded that the assessments of separate parts of articles in the evaluation sheets do not fully reflect the final recommendations of the reviewers. The results showed that the most correlated and therefore the most significant sections for the reviewers are the main text and the conclusions. The conditional probability analysis showed that the decision of reviewers, when number of points in the evaluation sheet is taken into consideration, is slightly unpredictable. No significant differences in the reviewers` recommendations based on gender or country of origin of the reviewers were found.

Machine learning strategy identification: A paradigm to uncover decision strategies with high fidelity

We propose a novel approach, which we call machine learning strategy identification (MLSI), to uncovering hidden decision strategies. In this approach, we first train machine learning models on choice and process data of one set of participants who are instructed to use particular strategies, and then use the trained models to identify the strategies employed by a new set of participants. Unlike most modeling approaches that need many trials to identify a participant's strategy, MLSI can distinguish strategies on a trial-by-trial basis. We examined MLSI's performance in three experiments. In Experiment I, we taught participants three different strategies in a paired-comparison decision task. The best machine learning model identified the strategies used by participants with an accuracy rate above 90%. In Experiment II, we compared MLSI with the multiple-measure maximum likelihood (MM-ML) method that is also capable of integrating multiple types of data in strategy identification, and found that MLSI had higher identification accuracy than MM-ML. In Experiment III, we provided feedback to participants who made decisions freely in a task environment that favors the non-compensatory strategy take-the-best. The trial-by-trial results of MLSI show that during the course of the experiment, most participants explored a range of strategies at the beginning, but eventually learned to use take-the-best. Overall, the results of our study demonstrate that MLSI can identify hidden strategies on a trial-by-trial basis and with a high level of accuracy that rivals the performance of other methods that require multiple trials for strategy identification.

Strategy selection in decisions from givens: Deciding at a glance?

People deciding between alternatives have at their disposal a toolbox containing both compensatory strategies, which take into account all available attributes of those alternatives, and noncompensatory strategies, which consider only some of the attributes. It is commonly assumed that noncompensatory strategies play only a minor role in decisions from givens, where attribute information is openly presented, because all attributes can be processed automatically "at a glance." Based on a literature review, however, I establish that previous studies on strategy selection in decisions from givens have yielded highly heterogeneous findings, including evidence of widespread use of noncompensatory strategies. Drawing on insights from visual attention research on subitizing, I argue that this heterogeneity might be due to differences across studies in the number of attributes and in whether the same or different symbols are used to represent high/low attribute values across attributes. I tested the impact of these factors in two experiments with decisions from givens in which both the number of attributes shown for each alternative and the coding of attribute values was manipulated. An analysis of participants' strategy use with a Bayesian multimethod approach (taking into account both decisions and response-time patterns) showed that a noncompensatory strategy was more frequently selected in conditions with a higher number of attributes; the type of attribute coding scheme did not affect strategy selection. Using a compensatory strategy in the conditions with eight (vs. four) attributes was associated with rather long response times and a high rate of strategy execution errors. The results suggest that decisions from givens can incur cognitive costs that prohibit reliance on automatic compensatory decision making and that can favor the adaptive selection of a noncompensatory strategy.

Development of decision making based on internal and external information: A hierarchical Bayesian approach

In decision making, people may rely on their own information as well as on information from external sources, such as family members, peers, or experts. The current study investigated how these types of information are used by comparing four decision strategies: 1) an internal strategy that relies solely on own information; 2) an external strategy that relies solely on the information from an external source; 3) a sequential strategy that relies on information from an external source only after own information is deemed inadequate; 4) an integrative strategy that relies on an integration of both types of information. Of specific interest were individual and developmental differences in strategy use. Strategy use was examined via Bayesian hierarchical mixture model analysis. A visual decision task was administered to children and young adolescents (N=305, ages 9–14). Individual differences but no age-related changes were observed in either decision accuracy or strategy use. The internal strategy was dominant across ages, followed by the integrative and sequential strategy, respectively, while the external strategy was extremely rare. This suggests a reluctance to rely entirely on information provided by external sources. We conclude that there are individual differences but not developmental changes in strategy use pertaining to perceptual decision-making in 9- through 14-year-olds. Generalizability of these findings is discussed with regard to different forms of social influence and varying perceptions of the external source. This study provides stepping stones in better understanding and modeling decision making processes in the presence of both internal and external information.

The Love of Large Numbers Revisited: A Coherence Model of the Popularity Bias

Preferences are often based on social information such as experiences and recommendations of other people. The reliance on social information is especially relevant in the case of online shopping, where buying decisions for products may often be based on online reviews by other customers. Recently, Powell, Yu, DeWolf, and Holyoak (2017, Psychological Science, 28, 1432-1442) showed that, when deciding between two products, people do not consider the number of product reviews in a statistically appropriate way as predicted by a Bayesian model but rather exhibit a bias for popular products (i.e., products with many reviews). In the present work, we propose a coherence model of the cognitive mechanism underlying this empirical phenomenon. The new model assumes that people strive for a coherent representation of the available information (i.e., the average review score and the number of reviews). To test this theoretical account, we reanalyzed the data of Powell and colleagues and ran an online study with 244 participants using a wider range of stimulus material than in the original study. Besides replicating the popularity bias, the study provided clear evidence for the predicted coherence effect, that is, decisions became more confident and faster when the available information about popularity and quality was congruent.

A General Approach to Prior Transformation

We present a general method for setting prior distributions in Bayesian models where parameters of interest are re-parameterized via a functional relationship. We generalize the results of Heck and Wagenmakers (2016) by considering the case where the dimension of the auxiliary parameter space does not equal that of the primary parameter space. We present numerical methods for carrying out prior specification for statistical models that do not admit closed-form solutions. Taken together, these results provide researchers a more complete set of tools for setting prior distributions that could be applied to many cognitive and decision making models. We illustrate our approach by reanalyzing data under the Selective Integration model of Tsetsos et al. (2016). We find, via a Bayes factor analysis, that the selective integration model with all four parameters generally outperforms both the three-parameter variant (omitting early cognitive noise) and the w = 1 variant (omitting selective gating), as well as an unconstrained competitor model. By contrast, Tsetsos et al. found the three parameter variant to be the best performing in a BIC analysis (in the absence of a competitor). Finally, we also include a pedagogical treatment of the mathematical tools necessary to formulate our results, including a simple "toy" example that illustrates our more general points.

Multinomial Models with Linear Inequality Constraints: Overview and Improvements of Computational Methods for Bayesian Inference

Many psychological theories can be operationalized as linear inequality constraints on the parameters of multinomial distributions (e.g., discrete choice analysis). These constraints can be described in two equivalent ways: Either as the solution set to a system of linear inequalities or as the convex hull of a set of extremal points (vertices). For both representations, we describe a general Gibbs sampler for drawing posterior samples in order to carry out Bayesian analyses. We also summarize alternative sampling methods for estimating Bayes factors for these model representations using the encompassing Bayes factor method. We introduce the R package multinomineq, which provides an easily-accessible interface to a computationally efficient implementation of these techniques.

The Impact of Social Media on Learning Behavior for Sustainable Education: Evidence of Students from Selected Universities in Pakistan

In today’s world, social media is playing an indispensable role on the learning behavior of university students to achieve sustainable education. The impact of social media on sustainable education is becoming an essential and impelling factor. The world has become a global village and technology use has made it a smaller world through social media and how it is changing instruction. This original study is amongst the few to perform a focalized investigation on revealing the relationship between positive and negative characteristics of social media and the learning attitude of university students for sustainable education. However, this study aims to examine the constructive and adverse factors that impact on students’ minds and how these helped students to share positive and negative aspects with others. It is increasingly noticeable that social networking sites and their applications present enormous benefits for as well as risks to university students and their implications on students’ psychological adjustment or learning behaviors are not well understood. This study adapted the cluster sampling method, and respondents participated from five selected regions. Researchers distributed 1013 questionnaires among the targeted sample of university students with an age range of 16 to 35 years, and they collected 831 complete/valid responses. This study applied the social gratification theory to examine students’ behavior practicing social media usage. This study specifically identified 18 adversarial and constructive factors of social media from the previous literature. The findings revealed that the usage of social media in Pakistan has a negative influence on a student’s behavior as compared to positive aspects. Results may not be generalized to the entire student community as findings are specific to the specific respondents only. This study presents a relationship between antithetical and creative characteristics of social media and exhibits avenues for future studies by facilitating a better understanding of web-based social network use.