Quantitative Systems Pharmacology models as a key to translational medicine

AI-based identification of therapeutic agents targeting GPCRs: introducing ligand type classifiers and systems biology

Identifying ligands targeting G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) with novel chemotypes other than the physiological ligands is a challenge for in silico screening campaigns. Here we present an approach that identifies novel chemotype ligands by combining structural data with a random forest agonist/antagonist classifier and a signal-transduction kinetic model. As a test case, we apply this approach to identify novel antagonists of the human adenosine transmembrane receptor type 2A, an attractive target against Parkinson's disease and cancer. The identified antagonists were tested here in a radio ligand binding assay. Among those, we found a promising ligand whose chemotype differs significantly from all so-far reported antagonists, with a binding affinity of 310 ± 23.4 nM. Thus, our protocol emerges as a powerful approach to identify promising ligand candidates with novel chemotypes while preserving antagonistic potential and affinity in the nanomolar range.

Model-based meta-analysis to optimise S. aureus-targeted therapies for atopic dermatitis

Several clinical trials of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus)‒targeted therapies for atopic dermatitis (AD) have shown conflicting results about whether they improve AD severity scores. This study performs a model-based meta-analysis to investigate the possible causes of these conflicting results and suggests how to improve the efficacies of S. aureus‒targeted therapies. We developed a mathematical model that describes systems-level AD pathogenesis involving dynamic interactions between S. aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS). Our model simulation reproduced the clinically observed detrimental effects of the application of S. hominis A9 and flucloxacillin on AD severity and showed that these effects disappeared if the bactericidal activity against CoNS was removed. A hypothetical (modeled) eradication of S. aureus by 3.0 log₁₀ colony-forming unit per cm² without killing CoNS achieved Eczema Area and Severity Index 75 comparable with that of dupilumab. This efficacy was potentiated if dupilumab was administered in conjunction with S. aureus eradication (Eczema Area and Severity Index 75 at week 16) (S. aureus eradication: 66.7%, dupilumab 61.6% and combination 87.8%). The improved efficacy was also seen for virtual dupilumab poor responders. Our model simulation suggests that killing CoNS worsens AD severity and that S. aureus‒specific eradication without killing CoNS could be effective for patients with AD, including dupilumab poor responders. This study will contribute to designing promising S. aureus‒targeted therapy.

A mathematical model to identify optimal combinations of drug targets for dupilumab poor responders in atopic dermatitis

BACKGROUND

Several biologics for atopic dermatitis (AD) have demonstrated good efficacy in clinical trials, but with a substantial proportion of patients being identified as poor responders. This study aims to understand the pathophysiological backgrounds of patient variability in drug response, especially for dupilumab, and to identify promising drug targets in dupilumab poor responders.

METHODS

We conducted model-based meta-analysis of recent clinical trials of AD biologics and developed a mathematical model that reproduces reported clinical efficacies for nine biological drugs (dupilumab, lebrikizumab, tralokinumab, secukinumab, fezakinumab, nemolizumab, tezepelumab, GBR 830, and recombinant interferon-gamma) by describing system-level AD pathogenesis. Using this model, we simulated the clinical efficacy of hypothetical therapies on virtual patients.

RESULTS

Our model reproduced reported time courses of %improved EASI and EASI-75 of the nine drugs. The global sensitivity analysis and model simulation indicated the baseline level of IL-13 could stratify dupilumab good responders. Model simulation on the efficacies of hypothetical therapies revealed that simultaneous inhibition of IL-13 and IL-22 was effective, whereas application of the nine biologic drugs was ineffective, for dupilumab poor responders (EASI-75 at 24 weeks: 21.6% vs. max. 1.9%).

CONCLUSION

Our model identified IL-13 as a potential predictive biomarker to stratify dupilumab good responders, and simultaneous inhibition of IL-13 and IL-22 as a promising drug therapy for dupilumab poor responders. This model will serve as a computational platform for model-informed drug development for precision medicine, as it allows evaluation of the effects of new potential drug targets and the mechanisms behind patient variability in drug response.