Predicting the cradle-to-gate environmental impact of chemicals from molecular descriptors and thermodynamic properties via mixed-integer programming

Enhanced Deep-Learning Model for Carbon Footprints of Chemicals

Millions of chemicals have been designed; however, their product carbon footprints (PCFs) are largely unknown, leaving questions about their sustainability. This general lack of PCF data is because the data needed for comprehensive environmental analyses are typically not available in the early molecular design stages. Several predictive tools have been developed to estimate the PCF of chemicals, which are applicable to only a narrow range of common chemicals and have limited predictive ability. Here, we propose FineChem 2, which is based on a novel transformer framework and first-hand industry data, for accurately predicting the PCF of chemicals. Compared to previous tools, FineChem 2 demonstrates significantly better predictive power, and its applicability domains are improved by ∼75% on a diverse set of chemicals on the global market, including the high-production-volume chemicals identified by regulators, daily chemicals, and chemical additives in food and plastics. In addition, through better interpretability from the attention mechanism, FineChem 2 may successfully identify PCF-intensive substructures and critical raw materials of chemicals, providing insights into the design of more sustainable molecules and processes. Therefore, we highlight FineChem 2 for estimating the PCF of chemicals, contributing to advancements in the sustainable transition of the global chemical industry.

Global Sensitivity Analysis in Life-Cycle Assessment of Early-Stage Technology using Detailed Process Simulation: Application to Dialkylimidazolium Ionic Liquid Production

The ability to assess the environmental performance of early-stage technologies at production scale is critical for sustainable process development. This paper presents a systematic methodology for uncertainty quantification in life-cycle assessment (LCA) of such technologies using global sensitivity analysis (GSA) coupled with a detailed process simulator and LCA database. This methodology accounts for uncertainty in both the background and foreground life-cycle inventories, and is enabled by lumping multiple background flows, either downstream or upstream of the foreground processes, in order to reduce the number of factors in the sensitivity analysis. A case study comparing the life-cycle impacts of two dialkylimidazolium ionic liquids is conducted to illustrate the methodology. Failure to account for the foreground process uncertainty alongside the background uncertainty is shown to underestimate the predicted variance of the end-point environmental impacts by a factor of two. Variance-based GSA furthermore reveals that only few foreground and background uncertain parameters contribute significantly to the total variance in the end-point environmental impacts. As well as emphasizing the need to account for foreground uncertainties in LCA of early-stage technologies, these results illustrate how GSA can empower more reliable decision-making in LCA.

Improved Machine Learning Models by Data Processing for Predicting Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts of Chemicals

Machine learning (ML) provides an efficient manner for rapid prediction of the life-cycle environmental impacts of chemicals, but challenges remain due to low prediction accuracy and poor interpretability of the models. To address these issues, we focused on data processing by using a mutual information-permutation importance (MI-PI) feature selection method to filter out irrelevant molecular descriptors from the input data, which improved the model interpretability by preserving the physicochemical meanings of original molecular descriptors without generation of new variables. We also applied a weighted Euclidean distance method to mine the data most relevant to the predicted targets by quantifying the contribution of each feature, thereby the prediction accuracy was improved. On the basis of above data processing, we developed artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting the life-cycle environmental impacts of chemicals with R² values of 0.81, 0.81, 0.84, 0.75, 0.73, and 0.86 for global warming, human health, metal depletion, freshwater ecotoxicity, particulate matter formation, and terrestrial acidification, respectively. The ML models were interpreted using the Shapley additive explanation method by quantifying the contribution of each input molecular descriptor to environmental impact categories. This work suggests that the combination of feature selection by MI-PI and source data selection based on weighted Euclidean distance has a promising potential to improve the accuracy and interpretability of the models for predicting the life-cycle environmental impacts of chemicals.

Chemical data intelligence for sustainable chemistry

This study highlights new opportunities for optimal reaction route selection from large chemical databases brought about by the rapid digitalisation of chemical data. The chemical industry requires a transformation towards more sustainable practices, eliminating its dependencies on fossil fuels and limiting its impact on the environment. However, identifying more sustainable process alternatives is, at present, a cumbersome, manual, iterative process, based on chemical intuition and modelling. We give a perspective on methods for automated discovery and assessment of competitive sustainable reaction routes based on renewable or waste feedstocks. Three key areas of transition are outlined and reviewed based on their state-of-the-art as well as bottlenecks: (i) data, (ii) evaluation metrics, and (iii) decision-making. We elucidate their synergies and interfaces since only together these areas can bring about the most benefit. The field of chemical data intelligence offers the opportunity to identify the inherently more sustainable reaction pathways and to identify opportunities for a circular chemical economy. Our review shows that at present the field of data brings about most bottlenecks, such as data completion and data linkage, but also offers the principal opportunity for advancement.

Process modelling and life cycle assessment coupled with experimental work to shape the future sustainable production of chemicals and fuels

Meeting the sustainable development goals and carbon neutrality targets requires transitioning to cleaner products, which poses significant challenges to the future chemical industry. Identifying alternative pathways to cover the growing demand for chemicals and fuels in a more sustainable manner calls for close collaborative programs between experimental and computational groups as well as new tools to support these joint endeavours. In this broad context, we here review the role of process systems engineering tools in assessing and optimising alternative chemical production patterns based on renewable resources, including renewable carbon and energy. The focus is on the use of process modelling and optimisation combined with life cycle assessment methodologies and network analysis to underpin experiments and generate insight into how the chemical industry could optimally deliver chemicals and fuels with a lower environmental footprint. We identify the main gaps in the literature and provide directions for future work, highlighting the role of PSE concepts and tools in guiding the future transition and complementing experimental studies more effectively.

Life Cycle Assessment for the Design of Chemical Processes, Products, and Supply Chains

Design in the chemical industry increasingly aims not only at economic but also at environmental targets. Environmental targets are usually best quantified using the standardized, holistic method of life cycle assessment (LCA). The resulting life cycle perspective poses a major challenge to chemical engineering design because the design scope is expanded to include process, product, and supply chain. Here, we first provide a brief tutorial highlighting key elements of LCA. Methods to fill data gaps in LCA are discussed, as capturing the full life cycle is data intensive. On this basis, we review recent methods for integrating LCA into the design of chemical processes, products, and supply chains. Whereas adding LCA as a posteriori tool for decision support can be regarded as established, the integration of LCA into the design process is an active field of research. We present recent advances and derive future challenges for LCA-based design.