Model order reduction of nonlinear parabolic PDE systems with moving boundaries using sparse proper orthogonal decomposition: Application to hydraulic fracturing

A Data-Driven Reduced-Order Model for Estimating the Stimulated Reservoir Volume (SRV)

The main goal of hydraulic fracturing stimulation in unconventional and tight reservoirs is to maximize hydrocarbon production by creating an efficient stimulated reservoir volume (SRV) around the horizontal wells. To zreach this goal, a physics-based model is typically used to design and optimize the hydraulic fracturing process before executing the job. However, two critical issues make this approach insufficient for achieving the mentioned goal. First, the physics-based models are based on several simplified assumptions and do not correctly represent the physics of unconventional reservoirs; hence, they often fail to match the observed SRVs in the field. Second, the success of the executed stimulation job is evaluated after it is completed in the field, leaving no room to modify some parameters such as proppant concentration in the middle of the job. To this end, this paper proposes data-driven and global sensitivity approaches to address these two issues. It introduces a novel workflow for estimating SRV in near real-time using some hydraulic fracturing parameters that can be inferred before or during the stimulation process. It also utilizes a robust global sensitivity framework known as the Sobol Method to rank the input parameters and create a reduced-order (mathematically simple) model for near real-time estimation of SRV (referred to as DSRV). The proposed framework in this paper has two main advantages and novelties. First, it is based on a pure data-based approach, with no simplified assumptions due to the use of a simulator for generating the training and test dataset, which is often the case in similar studies. Second, it treats SRV generation as a rock mechanics problem (rather than a reservoir engineering problem with fixed fracture lengths), accounting for changes in hydraulic fracture topology and SRV changes with time. A dataset from the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL) project is used. The model’s input parameters include stimulation variables of 58 stages of two wells. These parameters are stage number, step, pump rate and duration, proppant concentration and mass, and treating pressure. The model output consists of the corresponding microseismic (MS) cloud size at each step (i.e., time window) during the job. Based on the model, guidelines are provided to help operators design more efficient fracturing jobs for maximum recovery and to monitor the effectiveness of the hydraulic fracturing process. A few future improvements to this approach are also provided.

A Review of Proxy Modeling Highlighting Applications for Reservoir Engineering

Numerical models can be used for many purposes in oil and gas engineering, such as production optimization and forecasting, uncertainty analysis, history matching, and risk assessment. However, subsurface problems are complex and non-linear, and making reliable decisions in reservoir management requires substantial computational effort. Proxy models have gained much attention in recent years. They are advanced non-linear interpolation tables that can approximate complex models and alleviate computational effort. Proxy models are constructed by running high-fidelity models to gather the necessary data to create the proxy model. Once constructed, they can be a great choice for different tasks such as uncertainty analysis, optimization, forecasting, etc. The application of proxy modeling in oil and gas has had an increasing trend in recent years, and there is no consensus rule on the correct choice of proxy model. As a result, it is crucial to better understand the advantages and disadvantages of various proxy models. The existing work in the literature does not comprehensively cover all proxy model types, and there is a considerable requirement for fulfilling the existing gaps in summarizing the classification techniques with their applications. We propose a novel categorization method covering all proxy model types. This review paper provides a more comprehensive guideline on comparing and developing a proxy model compared to the existing literature. Furthermore, we point out the advantages of smart proxy models (SPM) compared to traditional proxy models (TPM) and suggest how we may further improve SPM accuracy where the literature is limited. This review paper first introduces proxy models and shows how they are classified in the literature. Then, it explains that the current classifications cannot cover all types of proxy models and proposes a novel categorization based on various development strategies. This new categorization includes four groups multi-fidelity models (MFM), reduced-order models (ROM), TPM, and SPM. MFMs are constructed based on simplifying physics assumptions (e.g., coarser discretization), and ROMs are based on dimensional reduction (i.e., neglecting irrelevant parameters). Developing these two models requires an in-depth knowledge of the problem. In contrast, TPMs and novel SPMs require less effort. In other words, they do not solve the complex underlying mathematical equations of the problem; instead, they decouple the mathematical equations into a numeric dataset and train statistical/AI-driven models on the dataset. Nevertheless, SPMs implement feature engineering techniques (i.e., generating new parameters) for its development and can capture the complexities within the reservoir, such as the constraints and characteristics of the grids. The newly introduced parameters can help find the hidden patterns within the parameters, which eventually increase the accuracy of SPMs compared to the TPMs. This review highlights the superiority of SPM over traditional statistical/AI-based proxy models. Finally, the application of various proxy models in the oil and gas industry, especially in subsurface modeling with a set of real examples, is presented. The introduced guideline in this review aids the researchers in obtaining valuable information on the current state of PM problems in the oil and gas industry.

Least Squares Support Vector Machine-Based Multivariate Generalized Predictive Control for Parabolic Distributed Parameter Systems with Control Constraints

This manuscript addresses a new multivariate generalized predictive control strategy using the least squares support vector machine for parabolic distributed parameter systems. First, a set of proper orthogonal decomposition-based spatial basis functions constructed from a carefully selected set of data is used in a Galerkin projection for the building of an approximate low-dimensional lumped parameter systems. Then, the temporal autoregressive exogenous model obtained by the least squares support vector machine is applied in the design of a multivariate generalized predictive control strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed multivariate generalized predictive control strategy is verified through a numerical simulation study on a typical diffusion-reaction process in radical symmetry.

Development of a hybrid model for a partially known intracellular signaling pathway through correction term estimation and neural network modeling

Developing an accurate first-principle model is an important step in employing systems biology approaches to analyze an intracellular signaling pathway. However, an accurate first-principle model is difficult to be developed since it requires in-depth mechanistic understandings of the signaling pathway. Since underlying mechanisms such as the reaction network structure are not fully understood, significant discrepancy exists between predicted and actual signaling dynamics. Motivated by these considerations, this work proposes a hybrid modeling approach that combines a first-principle model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model so that predictions of the hybrid model surpass those of the original model. First, the proposed approach determines an optimal subset of model states whose dynamics should be corrected by the ANN by examining the correlation between each state and outputs through relative order. Second, an L2-regularized least-squares problem is solved to infer values of the correction terms that are necessary to minimize the discrepancy between the model predictions and available measurements. Third, an ANN is developed to generalize relationships between the values of the correction terms and the system dynamics. Lastly, the original first-principle model is coupled with the developed ANN to finalize the hybrid model development so that the model will possess generalized prediction capabilities while retaining the model interpretability. We have successfully validated the proposed methodology with two case studies, simplified apoptosis and lipopolysaccharide-induced NFκB signaling pathways, to develop hybrid models with in silico and in vitro measurements, respectively.

An intracellular signaling pathway is often represented by a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, which translate our current knowledge about the signaling pathway into a testable mathematical model. However, predictions from such models are often subject to high uncertainty since many signaling pathways are only partially known beforehand. In this study, we propose a systematic approach to develop a hybrid model to improve model accuracy by combining machine learning and the first-principle modeling. Specifically, model correction terms are learned from discrepancy between model predictions and measurements, and these terms are added to the first-principle model to enhance the prediction accuracy. Once these correction terms are learned from the data, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed to find an empirical relation between the model and the correction terms so that the developed ANN can be used to posses improved predictive capabilities even in new operating conditions (i.e., generalizability). The final hybrid model is then constructed by coupling the first-principle model with the developed ANN.

Multi-Size Proppant Pumping Schedule of Hydraulic Fracturing: Application to a MP-PIC Model of Unconventional Reservoir for Enhanced Gas Production

Slickwater hydraulic fracturing is becoming a prevalent approach to economically recovering shale hydrocarbon. It is very important to understand the proppant’s transport behavior during slickwater hydraulic fracturing treatment for effective creation of a desired propped fracture geometry. The currently available models are either oversimplified or have been performed at limited length scales to avoid high computational requirements. Another limitation is that the currently available hydraulic fracturing simulators are developed using only single-sized proppant particles. Motivated by this, in this work, a computationally efficient, three-dimensional, multiphase particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) model was employed to simulate the multi-size proppant transport in a field-scale geometry using the Eulerian–Lagrangian framework. Instead of tracking each particle, groups of particles (called parcels) are tracked, which allows one to simulate the proppant transport in field-scale geometries at an affordable computational cost. Then, we found from our sensitivity study that pumping schedules significantly affect propped fracture surface area and average fracture conductivity, thereby influencing shale gas production. Motivated by these results, we propose an optimization framework using the MP-PIC model to design the multi-size proppant pumping schedule that maximizes shale gas production from unconventional reservoirs for given fracturing resources.

The Impact of Oriented Perforations on Fracture Propagation and Complexity in Hydraulic Fracturing

To better understand the interaction between hydraulic fracture and oriented perforation, a fully coupled finite element method (FEM)-based hydraulic-geomechanical fracture model accommodating gas sorption and damage has been developed. Damage conforms to a maximum stress criterion in tension and to Mohr–Coulomb limits in shear with heterogeneity represented by a Weibull distribution. Fracturing fluid flow, rock deformation and damage, and fracture propagation are collectively represented to study the complexity of hydraulic fracture initiation with perforations present in the near-wellbore region. The model is rigorously validated against experimental observations replicating failure stresses and styles during uniaxial compression and then hydraulic fracturing. The influences of perforation angle, in situ stress state, initial pore pressure, and properties of the fracturing fluid are fully explored. The numerical results show good agreement with experimental observations and the main features of the hydraulic fracturing process in heterogeneous rock are successfully captured. A larger perforation azimuth (angle) from the direction of the maximum principal stress induces a relatively larger curvature of the fracture during hydraulic fracture reorientation. Hydraulic fractures do not always initiate at the oriented perforations and the fractures induced in hydraulic fracturing are not always even and regular. Hydraulic fractures would initiate both around the wellbore and the oriented perforations when the perforation angle is >75°. For the liquid-based hydraulic fracturing, the critical perforation angle increases from 70° to 80°, with an increase in liquid viscosity from 10−3 Pa·s to 1 Pa·s. While for the gas fracturing, the critical perforation angle remains 62° to 63°. This study is of great significance in further understanding the near-wellbore impacts on hydraulic fracture propagation and complexity.

Detecting and Handling Cyber-Attacks in Model Predictive Control of Chemical Processes

Since industrial control systems are usually integrated with numerous physical devices, the security of control systems plays an important role in safe operation of industrial chemical processes. However, due to the use of a large number of control actuators and measurement sensors and the increasing use of wireless communication, control systems are becoming increasingly vulnerable to cyber-attacks, which may spread rapidly and may cause severe industrial incidents. To mitigate the impact of cyber-attacks in chemical processes, this work integrates a neural network (NN)-based detection method and a Lyapunov-based model predictive controller for a class of nonlinear systems. A chemical process example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed NN-based detection and LMPC methods to handle cyber-attacks.

Approximate Dynamic Programming Based Control of Proppant Concentration in Hydraulic Fracturing

Hydraulic fracturing has played a crucial role in enhancing the extraction of oil and gas from deep underground sources. The two main objectives of hydraulic fracturing are to produce fractures with a desired fracture geometry and to achieve the target proppant concentration inside the fracture. Recently, some efforts have been made to accomplish these objectives by the model predictive control (MPC) theory based on the assumption that the rock mechanical properties such as the Young’s modulus are known and spatially homogenous. However, this approach may not be optimal if there is an uncertainty in the rock mechanical properties. Furthermore, the computational requirements associated with the MPC approach to calculate the control moves at each sampling time can be significantly high when the underlying process dynamics is described by a nonlinear large-scale system. To address these issues, the current work proposes an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) based approach for the closed-loop control of hydraulic fracturing to achieve the target proppant concentration at the end of pumping. ADP is a model-based control technique which combines a high-fidelity simulation and function approximator to alleviate the “curse-of-dimensionality” associated with the traditional dynamic programming (DP) approach. A series of simulations results is provided to demonstrate the performance of the ADP-based controller in achieving the target proppant concentration at the end of pumping at a fraction of the computational cost required by MPC while handling the uncertainty in the Young’s modulus of the rock formation.