Ultra-short-term forecasting for photovoltaic power plants and real-time key performance indicators analysis with big data solutions. Two case studies - PV Agigea and PV Giurgiu located in Romania

Accurate Demand Forecasting: A Flexible and Balanced Electric Power Production Big Data Virtualization Based on Photovoltaic Power Plant

This paper has tried to execute accurate demand forecasting by utilizing big data visualization and proposes a flexible and balanced electric power production big data virtualization based on a photovoltaic power plant. First of all, this paper has tried to align electricity demand and supply as much as possible using big data. Second, by using big data to predict the supply of new renewable energy, an attempt was made to incorporate new and renewable energy into the current power supply system and to recommend an efficient energy distribution method. The first presented problem that had to be solved was the improvement in the accuracy of the existing electricity demand for forecasting models. This was explained through the relationship between the power demand and the number of specific words in the paper that use crawling by utilizing big data. The next problem arose because the current electricity production and supply system stores the amount of new renewable energy by changing the form of energy that is produced through ESS or that is pumped through water power generation without taking the amount of new renewable energy that is generated from sources such as thermal power, nuclear power, and hydropower into consideration. This occurs due to the difficulty of predicting power production using new renewable energy and the absence of a prediction system, which is a problem due to the inefficiency of changing energy types. Therefore, using game theory, the theoretical foundation of a power demand forecasting model based on big data-based renewable energy production forecasting was prepared.

Hybrid Improved Bird Swarm Algorithm with Extreme Learning Machine for Short-Term Power Prediction in Photovoltaic Power Generation System

When a photovoltaic (PV) system is connected to the electric power grid, the power system reliability may be exposed to a threat due to its inherent randomness and volatility. Consequently, predicting PV power generation becomes necessary for reasonable power distribution scheduling. A hybrid model based on an improved bird swarm algorithm (IBSA) with extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm, i.e., IBSAELM, was developed in this study for better prediction of the short-term PV output power. The IBSA model was initially used to optimize the hidden layer threshold and input weight of the ELM model. Further, the obtained optimal parameters were input into the ELM model for predicting short-term PV power. The results revealed that the IBSAELM model is superior in terms of the prediction accuracy compared to existing methods, such as support vector machine (SVM), back propagation neural network (BP), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and bird swarm algorithm with extreme learning machine (BSAELM) models. Accordingly, it achieved great benefits in terms of the utilization efficiency of whole power generation. Furthermore, the stability of the power grid was well maintained, resulting in balanced power generation, transmission, and electricity consumption.

A Probabilistic Ensemble Prediction Method for PV Power in the Nonstationary Period

Due to the large number of grid connection of distributed power supply, the existing scheduling methods can not meet the demand gradually. The proposed virtual power plant provides a new idea to solve this problem. The photovoltaic power prediction provides the data basis for the scheduling of the virtual power plant. Prediction intervals of photovoltaic power is a powerful statistical tool used for quantifying the uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation in power systems. To improve the interval prediction accuracy during the non-stationary periods of photovoltaic power, this paper proposes a probabilistic ensemble prediction model, which combines the modules of data preprocessing, non-stationary period discrimination, feature extraction, deterministic prediction, uncertainty prediction, and optimization integration into a general framework. More specifically, in the non-stationary period discrimination module, the method of discriminating the difference of the power ratio difference is introduced and applied for identifying the non-stationary period of the data of photovoltaic output; in the deterministic point prediction module, a stacking- long-short-term memory neural network model is used for point forecasts; in the uncertainty interval prediction module, a BAYES neural network is introduced for probabilistic forecasts; in the optimization integration module, an optimization algorithm named Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II is applied for integrating and optimizing the results of the point forecast and probabilistic forecast. The proposed model is tested using two photovoltaic outputs and weather data measured from a grid-connected photovoltaic system. The results show that the proposed model outperforms conventional forecast methods to predict short-term photovoltaic power outputs and associated uncertainties. The interval width is reduced by 10–20%, and the prediction accuracy is improved by at least 10%; this can be a useful tool for photovoltaic power forecasting.

A Smart Adaptive Switching Module Architecture Using Fuzzy Logic for an Efficient Integration of Renewable Energy Sources. A Case Study of a RES System Located in Hulubești, Romania

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES) has a common feature, that is, it is fluctuating, available in certain amounts and only for some periods of time. Consuming this electricity when it is available should be a primary goal to enhance operation of the RES-powered generating units which are particularly operating in microgrids. Heavily influenced by weather parameters, RES-powered systems can benefit from implementation of sensors and fuzzy logic systems to dynamically adapt electric loads to the volatility of RES. This study attempts to answer the following question: How to efficiently integrate RES to power systems by means of sustainable energy solutions that involve sensors, fuzzy logic, and categorization of loads? A Smart Adaptive Switching Module (SASM) architecture, which efficiently uses electricity generation of local available RES by gradually switching electric appliances based on weather sensors, power forecast, storage system constraints and other parameters, is proposed. It is demonstrated that, without SASM, the RES generation is supposed to be curtailed in some cases, e.g., when batteries are fully charged, even though the weather conditions are favourable. In such cases, fuzzy rules of SASM securely mitigate curtailment of RES generation by supplying high power non-traditional storage appliances. A numerical case study is performed to demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed SASM architecture for a RES system located in Hulubești (Dâmbovița), Romania.