Second-line therapy in advanced biliary tract cancer: what should be the standard?

Continuum of care for advanced biliary tract cancers

Biliary tract cancers (BTC) are a heterogeneous group of epithelial neoplasms, with a poor prognosis. Advanced BTC remains a challenging, non-curable disease. In this review, we provide an overview of the medical treatment options in advanced BTC and new strategies under development. Gemcitabine plus platinum chemotherapy is the standard first-line therapy in this setting. Recently, 5-fluorouracil, folinic acid plus oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) regimen became the only second-line therapy to be prospectively validated beyond failure of gemcitabine plus cisplatin combination in a phase III study, even though chemotherapy yielded modest survival improvement over best supportive care. Anti-epidermal growth factor receptor and antiangiogenic antibodies have not demonstrated any survival benefit in unselected patient populations. In recent years, knowledge about the molecular heterogeneity of BTC has considerably increased with the advent of large-scale genomic and transcriptomic analyses, opening up new perspectives for so-called personalised targeted therapies. Patients with BTC may be particularly good candidates for biomarker-driven strategies in clinical practice. Among current developments, the targeting of fibroblast growth factor receptor and isocitrate dehydrogenase gene alterations are the most promising avenues, and combination immunotherapies are under investigation.

Efficacy and Safety of CAP7.1 as Second-Line Treatment for Advanced Biliary Tract Cancers: Data from a Randomised Phase II Study

Simple Summary

Advanced biliary tract cancer is difficult to treat, and 5-year survival is less than 5% for tumours that cannot be removed by surgery. CAP7.1 is a drug being investigated for biliary tract cancer. This study assessed treatment with CAP7.1 in patients with advanced biliary tract cancer whose disease had progressed despite receiving other treatments. One group of patients received CAP7.1 together with best supportive care (BSC) and another group received BSC from their physician. The patients receiving BSC were subsequently given CAP7.1 if their disease was seen to progress. Disease control in those receiving CAP7.1 was better than that observed in patients who received BSC, with an associated greater time to disease progression. Side effects were as expected for this type of anti-cancer drug, related to dose of CAP7.1, and manageable. CAP7.1 may offer a new treatment option for biliary tract cancer and should undergo further clinical investigation.

Abstract

CAP7.1 is a novel topoisomerase II inhibitor, converted to active etoposide via carboxylesterase 2 (CES2), with signals of efficacy in treatment-refractory solid tumours. In a Phase II trial, 27 patients with advanced biliary tract cancers (BTC) were randomised 1:1 to CAP7.1 plus best supportive care (BSC), or BSC alone, with crossover to CAP7.1 upon disease progression. The primary objective was disease control rate (DCR) following 28-day cycles of CAP7.1 (200/150 mg/m²; iv), or BSC until progression. Secondary objectives included progression-free survival (PFS), time-to-treatment failure (TTF), overall survival (OS) and safety. Fourteen patients received CAP7.1 and 13 BSC. DCR favoured CAP7.1 vs. BSC (50% vs. 20%; treatment difference: 30%, 95%CI −18.44, 69.22, full analysis set [FAS]), with disease progression in 40% vs. 70%, respectively. Significantly longer median PFS was achieved for CAP7.1 vs. BSC: 66 vs. 39 days, respectively (hazard ratio [HR] 0.31; 95%CI 0.11, 0.86; p = 0.009; FAS). Similar trends were observed for TTF and OS. CES2-positive patients had longer median PFS (158 vs. 56 days) and OS (228 vs. 82 days) vs. CES2-negative patients. Adverse events were predictable, dose-dependent and consistent with those previously observed with etoposide. These efficacy and safety findings in second-line BTC warrant further clinical investigation of CAP7.1.

Targeting Hypoxia Using Evofosfamide and Companion Hypoxia Imaging of FMISO-PET in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer

Purpose

Hypoxia is widely known as one of the mechanisms of chemoresistance and as an environmental condition which triggers invasion and metastasis of cancer. Evofosfamide is a hypoxia-activated prodrug of the cytotoxin bromo-isophosphoramide mustard conjugated with 2-nitroimidazole. Biliary tract cancer (BTC) is known to contain large hypoxic area. This study evaluated the efficacy and safety of evofosfamide as a second-line treatment of advanced BTC.

Materials and Methods

Patients received evofosfamide at a dose of 340 mg/m² on days 1, 8, and 15 of every 28-day cycle. Primary end-point was progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 4-months (4m-PFSR). Secondary end-points included overall survival (OS), PFS, disease control rate (DCR), metabolic response by ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET), hypoxic parameters evaluated by ¹⁸F-fluoromisonidazole (FMISO) PET and toxicity.

Results

Twenty patients were treated with evofosfamide, with 16 response-evaluable patients. There was no objective response; stable disease was observed in nine patients, with a DCR of 56.25%. 4m-PFSR was 40.6%. Median PFS was 3.60 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.68 to 5.52). Median OS was 6.37 months (95% CI, 3.94 to 8.79). Reduction of tumor metabolic activity was observed in eight of 15 patients (53.3%). High baseline hypoxic parameters were associated with poor PFS. Change of hypoxic parameters between pretreatment and post-treatment reflected hypoxic-activated drug response. There was no treatment-related death.

Conclusion

Evofosfamide as second-line treatment of advanced BTC showed acceptable safety and comparable efficacy to other agents. Changes in volumetric parameters measured with FMISO PET, showing the degree of tumor hypoxia, reflected the response to evofosfamide based on the mode of action.

Capecitabine plus Oxaliplatin as a Second-Line Therapy for Advanced Biliary Tract Cancers: A Multicenter, Open-Label, Phase II Trial

Background: Although biliary tract cancer (BTC) has a very aggressive nature, some patients maintain a relatively good performance status after failure with first-line treatment of gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GC). Thus, tolerable, feasible, and useful second-line treatments are needed for these patients. We investigated the efficacy of capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (XELOX) as a second-line therapy for patients with advanced BTC who failed first-line GC treatment. Methods: In this prospective, phase II trial, we investigated XELOX (capecitabine 1,000 mg/m² twice daily on days 1-14 and oxaliplatin 130 mg/m² on day 1) as a second-line treatment, given every 3 weeks, totaling 8 cycles in patients with metastatic BTC who failed first-line GC treatment. The primary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS). Results: From December 2015 to November 2016, 50 patients with metastatic intrahepatic or extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma or gall bladder (GB) cancer were enrolled. The regimen was well tolerated. Toxicities mainly consisted of grade 1 or 2 events, and thrombocytopenia and neuropathy had the highest incidence. In intent-to-treat analysis, one complete response (CR) and six partial responses (PRs) were recorded with XELOX treatment. The overall response rate and the disease control rate from the intent-to-treat analysis were 14% and 52%, respectively. With a median follow-up of 15.6 months, PFS after XELOX was a median of 15.4 weeks (95% CI, 8.5-22.3). This PFS value supported the statistical hypothesis of this study. The median overall survival was 32.7 weeks (95% CI, 21.4-43.9). Conclusion: This phase II trial showed that XELOX treatment was efficacious and had a tolerable toxicity profile in patients with advanced BTC who failed first-line treatment of gemcitabine and cisplatin.

Efficacy and safety of trametinib in Japanese patients with advanced biliary tract cancers refractory to gemcitabine

Gemcitabine‐based therapy remains the mainstay of treatment for patients with biliary tract cancers (BTCs) with no second‐line treatment(s) established yet. Aberrant activation of the MAPK pathway in patients with BTC indicates its importance in BTC. Trametinib is a potent, highly selective, allosteric non‐competitive inhibitor of MEK1/MEK2. In this phase IIa open‐label, single‐arm study, we investigated the efficacy and safety of trametinib in Japanese patients with advanced BTC refractory to gemcitabine‐based therapy. All patients received oral trametinib 2 mg once daily until progressive disease (PD), death, or unacceptable toxicity. The primary objective was to determine the 12‐week non‐PD rate. Secondary assessments included safety, progression‐free survival (PFS), overall survival, and overall response rate. Targeted exome sequencing was used to identify biomarkers for sensitivity or resistance to trametinib monotherapy. Twenty patients (median age, 61.5 years) with carcinoma of gall bladder (40%), intrahepatic (25%) or extrahepatic (30%) bile duct, and ampulla of Vater (5%) were enrolled. The non‐PD rate at week 12 was 10% (95% confidence interval, 1.2‐31.7); it did not reach the threshold rate of 25%. Median PFS was 10.6 weeks (95% confidence interval, 4.6‐12.1) and 1‐year overall survival was 20.0%. Stable disease and PD were observed in 13 (65%) and seven (35%) patients, respectively. No new safety signals were reported. Although the primary end‐point was not met, prolonged PFS was observed in one patient having six somatic variants including synonymous NF1 exon 12 splice variant and a loss‐of‐function variant in ARID1A. Efforts to understand responsive mutations and sensitivity to targeted therapies are warranted. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01943864.

Efficacy of fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced biliary tract cancer after failure of gemcitabine plus cisplatin: retrospective analysis of 321 patients

Background:

We aimed to assess the efficacy of second-line fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) after failure of gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GEMCIS).

Methods:

We retrospectively examined patients with histologically documented advanced BTC who received first-line GEMCIS between December 2010 and June 2015. Among 748 patients treated with first-line GEMCIS, 321 (43%) subsequently received fluoropyrimidine-based second-line systemic chemotherapy.

Results:

Fluoropyrimidine monotherapy and fluoropyrimidine–platinum combination were used in 255 and 66 patients, respectively. In patients with measurable disease, the overall response rate (ORR) was 3% and disease control rate was 47%. After a median follow-up of 27.6 months (range, 0.9–70.4 months), the median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 1.9 months (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6–2.2) and 6.5 months (95% CI, 5.9–7.0), respectively. The ORR was significantly higher in patients who received fluoropyrimidine–platinum combination compared with those who received fluoropyrimidine alone (8 vs 1%, P=0.009), although the PFS (P=0.43) and OS (P=0.88) did not significantly differ between these groups.

Conclusions:

Fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy was modestly effective as a second-line chemotherapy for advanced BTC patients after failure of GEMCIS. Fluoropyrimidine–platinum combination therapy was not associated with improved survival outcomes, as compared with fluoropyrimidine monotherapy.

Chemoembolization with drug eluting beads preloaded with irinotecan (DEBIRI) vs doxorubicin (DEBDOX) as a second line treatment for liver metastases from cholangiocarcinoma: a preliminary study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of our preliminary study was to compare the efficacy of drug-eluting beads preloaded with irinotecan (DEBIRI) vs drug-eluting beads preloaded with doxorubicin (DEBDOX) as second-line treatment of unresectable liver metastases from cholangiocarcinoma (CCA).

METHODS

In 2013, 10 patients affected by multiple liver metastases from CCA, resistant to the first-line chemotherapy regimen, were enrolled: 5 patients were submitted to lobar/segmental transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with DEBIRI (100-mg irinotecan/1 vial) and 5 patients with DEBDOX (50-mg doxorubicin/1 vial), performed every 3 weeks. Patients treated with DEBIRI received antipain premedication consisting of 30-mg of morphine and 3-4 ml of intra-arterial lidocaine. Complications and efficacy were assessed (response evaluation criteria in solid tumour 1.1).

RESULTS

A total of 32 TACE were performed (mean: 3.2 TACE/patient), all well tolerated, with only 1 case of asymptomatic cholecystitis spontaneously recovered. Response rates of patients treated with DEBDOX and DEBIRI were: 4/5 progressive disease and 1/5 partial response vs 2/5 partial response, 2/5 stable disease and 1/5 progressive disease, respectively, with the appearance of variable necrosis percentage. Progression-free survival from the first procedure and progressive disease were 12.67 weeks for DEBIRI and 15.78 weeks for DEBDOX, respectively. Overall survival from time of primary diagnosis was 176 weeks for DEBIRI and 125 weeks for DEBDOX, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In our preliminary experience, DEBIRI was more effective than DEBDOX as a second-line treatment for hepatic metastases from CCA. Antipain drug administration and the use of the microcatheter led to a good treatment tolerability and a low complication rate. Advances in knowledge: In our preliminary experience, DEBIRI was more effective than DEBDOX as a second-line treatment of hepatic metastases from CCA; further studies involving a larger cohort of patients are needed.

Use of gemcitabine-platinum in Indian patients with advanced gall bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

Gemcitabine-platinum (Gem-P) is the current standard for patients with advanced gall bladder cancer.

MATERIALS & METHODS

This is retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database of 210 patients with advanced gall bladder cancer treated with Gem-P between January 2012 and September 2013.

RESULTS

Median age was 53 years, 65.2% females. In total,158 patients had metastatic and 52 had locoregional disease. Median number of cycles was 5 (1-12). At a median follow-up of 10 months, median overall survival/progression-free survival was 10/5 months, respectively. On multivariate analysis, patients who underwent prior surgery for primary and locoregional disease had a significantly better progression-free survival and those with locoregional disease had a significantly better overall survival. A total of 45.7% received second-line chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

Use of Gem-P in Indian patients leads to slightly worse outcomes suggesting an aggressive biology.

Second-line chemotherapy in advanced biliary cancer progressed to first-line platinum-gemcitabine combination: a multicenter survey and pooled analysis with published data

Background

After progression to a standard first-line platinum and gemcitabine combination (GP), there is no established second-line therapy for patients with advanced biliary tract cancers (aBTC). Indeed, literature data suggest limited activity of most second-line agents evaluated so far.

Methods

We collected a large retrospective series of aBTC patients treated with second-line chemotherapy after progression to a first-line GP regimen at different Italian institutions. We then pooled the data with those reported in previous studies, which were identified with a Medline search and the on-line abstract datasets of major international oncology meetings.

Results

A total of 174 patients were included in the multicenter survey: response rate (RR) with second-line chemotherapy was low (3.4 %), with median PFS and OS of 3.0 months and 6.6 months, respectively. At multivariate analysis, preserved performance status, low CA19.9 levels and absence of distant metastases were favorable prognostic factors. Data from other five presented or published series were identified, for a total of 499 patients included in the pooled analysis. The results confirmed marginal activity of second-line chemotherapy (RR: 10.2 %), with limited efficacy in unselected patient populations (median PFS: 3.1 months; median OS: 6.3 months).

Conclusions

The current analysis highlights the limited value of second-line chemotherapy after a first-line GP combination in aBTC. While waiting for effective biologic agents in this setting, ongoing randomized trials will identify the optimal second-line chemotherapy regimen and validate prognostic factors for individual patient management.

Capecitabine with/without mitomycin C: results of a randomized phase II trial of second-line therapy in advanced biliary tract adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Advanced biliary tract adenocarcinoma (BTA) is a rare tumor with a poor prognosis. Since no standard salvage chemotherapy regimen exists, we explored the activity of capecitabine alone or combined with mitomycin C.

METHODS

Patients aged 18-75 years and with KPS >50, with pathological diagnosis of BTA stratified based on site and stage of disease, were randomized to receive capecitabine 2000 mg/m(2) day 1-14 alone (ARM A) or in combination with mitomycin C 6 mg/m(2) day 1 (ARM B) as second-line therapy. Cycles were repeated in both arms every 3 weeks. Tumor assessment was performed every 2 months. The primary endpoint was the probability of being progression free at 6 months (PFS-6) from treatment start. According to the Fleming design, the study aimed to enroll 26 pts per arm. An exploratory endpoint was to assess thymidylate synthase (TS) and thymidine phosphorylase (TP) expression, as biomarkers predictive for clinical outcomes of capecitabine treatment.

RESULTS

Between October 2011 and 2013, 57 metastatic pts were enrolled: ARM A/B 28/29. Accordingly, 55 (26/29) pts were assessable for the primary endpoint: 2 (8%) ARM A and 3 (10%) ARM B pts were PFS-6. Main G3-4 toxicities were: hand-foot syndrome and transaminitis in 4/0%, and thrombocytopenia, diarrhea and fatigue in 0/3% of pts. No statistically significant correlation was found between TS or TP expression and pts' outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Since capecitabine yielded a disappointing outcome and the addition of mitomycin C did not improve the results, new therapeutic strategies need to be explored to improve survival in this disease setting.

Relationship between UGT1A1*6/*28 polymorphisms and severe toxicities in Chinese patients with pancreatic or biliary tract cancer treated with irinotecan-containing regimens

PURPOSE

The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the relationship between UGT1A1 polymorphisms and toxicities in Chinese patients with pancreatic or biliary tract cancer receiving irinotecan-containing regimens as the second- or third-line chemotherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 36 patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer and 12 patients with unresectable biliary tract cancer were included. Approximately 33 patients were treated with FOLFIRI regimen, a chemotherapy regimen, where FOL stands for folinic acid, F for fluorouracil, and IRI for irinotecan (irinotecan 180 mg/m(2) at day 1, CF 200 mg/m(2) at day 1-2, 5-FU 400 mg/m(2) at day 1-2, followed by continuous infusion of 5-FU 600 mg/m(2) for 22 hours at day 1-2, every 2 weeks). The other 15 patients were treated with irinotecan monotherapy (180 mg/m(2), every 2 weeks). UGT1A1*6/*28 polymorphisms were detected by direct sequencing.

RESULTS

The frequencies of GG, GA, AA genotypes for UGT1A1*6 were 70.8% (n=34), 25.0% (n=12), and 4.2% (n=2), respectively. And those of TA6/TA6, TA6/TA7, TA7/TA7 for UGT1A1*28 were 79.2% (n=38), 18.8% (n=9), and 2.0% (n=1), respectively. A total of 22 patients (45.8%) had grade III-IV neutropenia, and six patients (12.5%) experienced grade III-IV diarrhea. The incidence of grade III-IV neutropenia in patients with UGT1A1*6 GA or AA genotype was 71.4%, which was significantly higher than that with GG genotype (35.3%, P=0.022). No relationship was found between grade III-IV neutropenia and UGT1A1*28 polymorphism. The statistical analysis between grade III-IV diarrhea and UGT1A1*6/*28 polymorphisms was not conducted in view of the limited number of patients.

CONCLUSION

In Chinese patients with pancreatic or biliary tract cancer administered irinotecan-containing regimens, those with UGT1A1*6 variant may have a high risk of severe neutropenia.

Second-line chemotherapy for advanced biliary tract cancer after failure of the gemcitabine-platinum combination: A large multicenter study by the Association des Gastro-Entérologues Oncologues

BACKGROUND

Few data are available on second-line chemotherapy (CT2) for advanced biliary tract cancer (ABTC). The aim of this multicenter study was to describe the CT2 regimens used, the response rates, and the outcomes of patients treated with various CT2 regimens.

METHODS

Patients who received CT2 for ABTC at 17 French institutions after the failure of the gemcitabine-platinum combination were retrospectively studied. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox models were used for multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Among 603 patients who received first-line chemotherapy (CT1) for ABTC, 196 received CT2: 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and irinotecan (n = 64), 5-FU and oxaliplatin (n = 21), 5-FU and cisplatin (n = 38), 5-FU or capecitabine (n = 40), sunitinib (n = 10), or other various regimens (n = 23). Among the 186 assessable patients, there were 22 partial responses and 70 stabilizations. After a median follow-up of 26.4 months, the median PFS and OS were 3.2 and 6.7 months, respectively. There was no significant difference in PFS or OS between CT2 regimens. Fluoropyrimidine-based doublet chemotherapy was not superior to fluoropyrimidine alone in terms of OS and PFS. In a multivariate analysis, a performance status of 0 to 1, disease control with CT1, and a carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) level ≤ 400 IU/mL were significantly associated with longer PFS and OS. Grade 3 to 4 toxicity occurred in 32% of the patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CT2 might provide disease control for selected patients with ABTC after the failure of gemcitabine-platinum, but the prognosis remains poor. No particular regimen seems superior to others, and this calls for new treatments. A good performance status, disease control with CT1, and a low level of CA 19-9 were associated with longer survival.

FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab as a second-line therapy for metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

AIM

To evaluate the efficacy and tolerance of FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab treatment outcome as second-line treatment for metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

METHODS

Thirteen consecutive patients with metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma who were refractory to first-line therapy consisting of gemcitabine plus oxaliplatin-based first-line chemotherapy given intravenously via intra-arterial infusion were treated with FOLFIRI [irinotecan (180 mg/m² i.v. over 90 min) concurrently with folinic acid (400 mg/m² i.v. over 120 min) followed by fluorouracil (400 mg/m² i.v. bolus) then fluorouracil 2400 mg/m² intravenous infusion over 46 h] and bevacizumab (5 mg/kg) every 2 wk. Tumor response was evaluated by computed tomography scan every 4 cycles.

RESULTS

The best tumor responses using response evaluation criteria in solid tumor criteria were: complete response for 1 patient, partial response for 4 patients, and stable disease for 6 patients after 6 mo of follow-up. The response rate was 38.4% (95%CI: 12.5-89) and the disease control rate was 84.5% (95%CI: 42-100). Seven deaths occurred at the time of analysis, progression free survival was 8 mo (95%CI: 7-16), and median overall survival was 20 mo (95%CI: 8-48). No grade 4 toxic events were observed. Four grade 3 hematological toxicities and one grade 3 digestive toxicity occurred. An adaptive reduction in chemotherapy dosage was required in 2 patients due to hematological toxicity, and a delay in chemotherapy cycles was required for 3 patients.

CONCLUSION

FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab combination treatment showed promising efficacy and safety as second-line treatment for metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after failure of the first-line treatment of gemcitabine plus oxaliplatin chemotherapy.

Reports from the International Liver Cancer Association (ILCA) congress 2014

The International Liver Cancer Association (ILCA) congress took place in Kyoto, Japan, from September 4 to 7, 2014 and ranged from basic to clinical studies in the area of primary liver cancer, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but also cholangiocarcinoma. In the field of basic and translational research, several studies attempted to refine our knowledge of biological events involved in liver carcinogenesis and sought to identify new therapeutic targets for improving clinical care in the future, Fig. 1. In the present work, a subjective selection of studies among the large number of abstract available at the ILCA meeting is presented and placed into context.

Identification of active chemotherapy regimens in advanced biliary tract carcinoma: a review of chemotherapy trials in the past two decades

Biliary tract carcinoma is a rare malignancy. We performed a comprehensive analysis of published prospective clinical trials in advanced biliary tract carcinoma in an attempt to identify active regimens in this setting. We searched PubMed and abstracts presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Gastrointestinal Cancer Symposium, European Society of Medical Oncology and European Cancer Organization conferences for clinical trials in this disease. We found 83 trials. The effect of gemcitabine on overall survival benefit showed a strong trend (p = 0.014) and an improvement in progression-free survival (p = 0.003). Gemcitabine-based regimens containing 5-fluorouracil showed a trend toward an improved overall survival (p = 0.047) relative to platinum agents. Our findings support gemcitabine as the chemotherapy backbone for the treatment of patients with cholangiocarcinoma. Gemcitabine plus 5-fluorouracil combinations warrant further investigations.

Multivariate prognostic factors analysis for second-line chemotherapy in advanced biliary tract cancer

BACKGROUND

The role of second-line chemotherapy (CT) is not established in advanced biliary tract cancer (aBTC). We investigated the outcome of aBTC patients treated with second-line CT and devised a prognostic model.

METHODS

Baseline clinical and laboratory data of 300 consecutive aBTC patients were collected and association with overall survival (OS) was investigated by multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

The following parameters resulted independently associated with longer OS: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 (P<0.001; hazard ratio (HR), 0.348; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.215-0.562), CA19.9 lower than median (P=0.013; HR, 0.574; 95% CI 0.370-0.891), progression-free survival after first-line CT ≥ 6 months (P=0.027; HR, 0.633; 95% CI 0.422-0.949) and previous surgery on primary tumour (P=0.027; HR, 0.609; 95% CI 0.392-0.945). We grouped the 249 patients with complete data available into three categories according to the number of fulfilled risk factors: median OS times for good-risk (zero to one factors), intermediate-risk (two factors) and poor-risk (three to four factors) groups were 13.1, 6.6 and 3.7 months, respectively (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Easily available clinical and laboratory factors predict prognosis of aBTC patients undergoing second-line CT. This model allows individual patient-risk stratification and may help in treatment decision and trial design.