Gap Analysis of Giant Panda Conservation as an Example for Planning China's National Park System

Measuring ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity for comprehensive conservation in Giant Panda National Park

China announced the development of its first 5 national parks in 2021, the primary objective of which is to conserve the natural state and integrity of natural ecosystems. As such, ecosystem services and biodiversity levels are crucial assessment factors for the parks. For Giant Panda National Park (GPNP), we evaluated ecological sensitivity based on water and soil erosion and rocky desertification; ecosystem services based on headwater conservation, soil and water conservation, and biodiversity conservation; and presence of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and sympatric species (e.g., takin [Budorcas taxicolor], Asiatic black bear [Ursus thibetanus]) habitat suitability derived from niche modeling to identify the ecosystem status and assess ecological problems within the park. From our results, we proposed ecologically critical areas to target to meet the park's goals. The suitable habitat for pandas and sympatric species encompassed 62.98% of the park and occurred mainly in the Minshan Mountains. One quarter of the total area (25.67%) contained areas important for ecosystem services. Ecologically sensitive and extremely sensitive areas covered 88.78% of the park and were distributed mainly in Qionglaishan and Minshan Mountains. This coverage indicated that there was much habitat for pandas and sympatric species but that the ecosystems in GPNP are vulnerable. Therefore, ecologically critical areas encompassed all suitable habitats for all the species examined and areas important and extremely important to ecosystem service provision,ecologically sensitive and extremely sensitive areas, encompassed 15.17% of panda habitat, accounted for 16.37% of the GPNP area, and were distributed mainly in the Minshan Mountains. Our results indicated where conservation efforts should be focused in the park and that by identifying ecologically critical areas managers can provide targeted protection for wildlife habitat and ecosystems and effectively and efficiently protect the composite ecosystem. Additionally, our methods can be used to inform development of new national parks.

The effectiveness of using giant panda as a surrogate for protecting sympatric species

The use of umbrella species to promote biodiversity conservation is practiced worldwide. The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) an iconic species for world wildlife conservation, that inhabits regions with significant biodiversity. Given that the functions at wildlife of different trophic levels and in different body size groups are different within the ecosystem, it is unknown whether those groups of wildlife co-occurring with giant pandas are each likewise protected. To examine the umbrella effect of giant pandas on sympatric species, we used an extensive dataset of wildlife from more than 78% of giant panda habitats. We analysed the changes in distribution for four wildlife categories (large carnivores, large herbivores, medium carnivores and medium herbivores) using a generalized linear mixed model, and the underlying driving factors using binomial logistic regression models. Changes in forests in giant panda habitats were evaluated using Fragstats. The results have shown that the counts of herbivores and medium carnivores increased significantly during the decade. However, those of large carnivores significantly declined. Forest cover and nature reserves showed significant and positive effects on wildlife in 2001 and 2011, while the human population had significant and negative impacts on the herbivores and carnivores. Our results have also suggested that there has been a slight alleviation in forest fragmentation in areas unaffected by earthquakes. We concluded that the umbrella strategy of using the giant panda as an umbrella species achieved partial success by promoting the recovery of herbivores and medium carnivores. Meanwhile, this has indicated that the strategy was not sufficient for large carnivores, and therefore not enough for local ecosystems, given the critical role of large carnivores. We have suggested integrating habitat patches, controlling human disturbance, and preparing for potential human-wildlife conflict management in the Giant Panda National Park to restore large carnivore populations and maintain ecosystem functioning.

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for panda conservation under future climate and land use change scenarios

While the relatively stable land use and land cover (LULC) patterns is an important feature of protected areas (PAs), the influence of this feature on future species distribution and the effectiveness of the PAs has rarely been explored. Here, we assessed the role of land use patterns within PAs on the projected range of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) by comparing projections inside and outside of PAs for four model configurations: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and dynamic land use covariates, (3) climate and static land use covariates and (4) climate and hybrid dynamic-static land use covariates. Our objectives were twofold: to understand the role of protected status on projected panda habitat suitability and evaluate the relative efficacy of different climate modeling approaches. The climate and land use change scenarios used in the models include two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios: SSP126 [an optimistic scenario] and SSP585 [a pessimistic scenario]. We found that models including land-use covariates performed significantly better than climate-only models and that these projected more suitable habitat than climate-only models. Static land-use models projected more suitable habitat than both the dynamic and hybrid models under SSP126, while these models did not differ under SSP585. China's panda reserve system was projected to effectively maintain suitable habitat inside PAs. Panda dispersal ability also significantly impacted outcomes, with most models assuming unlimited dispersal forecasting range expansion and models assuming zero dispersal consistently forecasting range contraction. Our findings highlight that policies targeting improved land-use practices should be an effective means for offsetting some of the negative effects of climate change on pandas. As the effectiveness of PAs is projected to be maintained, we recommend the judicious management and expansion of the PA system to ensure the resilience of panda populations into the future.

Giant Panda Microhabitat Study in the Daxiangling Niba Mountain Corridor

Habitat reduction and increased fragmentation are urgent issues for the survival and recovery of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). However, changes in the distribution and microhabitat selection of giant panda habitats in different seasons in the same region have rarely been assessed. To further understand giant panda habitat requirements, this study analyzed the giant panda habitat selection characteristics and differences using the sample data of the giant panda occurrence sites collected during 2020-2022. The results showed that the giant panda in both seasons selected medium altitudes (2000-2400 m), southeastern slopes, slopes less than 15°, taller tree layers (8-15 m) with a larger diameter at breast height (17-25 cm) and medium density (25-55%), shorter shrub layers (<4 m) with sparse density (<30%), and taller bamboo (>2 m) with high density (>35%). The giant panda microhabitat survey in the Niba Mountain corridor clarified the characteristics of suitable habitat selection for the giant panda in the corridor. The findings of the study can provide scientific references for the development of practical habitat conservation and management measures for giant pandas in the study area.

An improved, chromosome-level genome of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca)

BACKGROUND

The iconic giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), as both a flagship and umbrella species endemic to China, is a world famous symbol for wildlife conservation. The giant panda has several specific biological traits and holds a relatively small place in evolution. A high-quality genome of the giant panda is key to understanding the biology of this vulnerable species.

FINDINGS

We generated a 2.48-Gb chromosome-level genome (GPv1) of the giant panda named "Jing Jing" with a contig N50 of 28.56 Mb and scaffold N50 of 134.17 Mb, respectively. The total length of chromosomes (n = 21) was 2.39-Gb, accounting for 96.4% of the whole genome. Compared with the previously published four genomes of the giant panda, our genome is characterized by the highest completeness and the correct sequence orientation. A gap-free and 850 kb length of immunoglobulin heavy-chain gene cluster was manually annotated in close proximity to the telomere of chromosome 14. Additionally, we developed an algorithm to predict the centromere position of each chromosome. We also constructed a complete chromatin structure for "Jing Jing", which includes inter-chromosome interaction pattern, A/B compartment, topologically associated domain (TAD), TAD-clique and promoter-enhancer interaction (PEI).

CONCLUSIONS

We presented an improved chromosome-level genome and complete chromatin structure for the giant panda. This is a valuable resource for the future genetic and genomic studies on giant panda.

Socio-ecological gap analysis to forecast species range contractions for conservation

Conservation requires both a needs assessment and prioritization scheme for planning and implementation. Range maps are critical for understanding and conserving biodiversity, but current range maps often omit content, negating important metrics of variation in populations and places. Here, we integrate a myriad of conditions that are spatially explicit across distributions of carnivores to identify gaps in capacity necessary for their conservation. Expanding on traditional gap analyses that focus almost exclusively on quantifying discordance in protected area coverage across a species' range, our work aggregates threat layers (e.g., drought, human pressures) with resources layers (e.g., protected areas, cultural diversity) to identify gaps in available conservation capacity (ACC) across ranges for 91 African carnivores. Our model indicated that all species have some portion of their range at risk of contraction, with an average of 15 percentage range loss. We found that the ACC differed based on body size and taxonomy. Results deviated from current perceptions of extinction risks for species with an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat status of Least Concern and yielded insights for species categorized as Data Deficient. Our socio-ecological gap analysis presents a geospatial approach to inform decision-making and resource allocation in conservation. Ultimately, our work advances forecasting dynamics of species' ranges that are increasingly vital in an era of great socio-ecological change to mitigate human-wildlife conflict and promote inclusive carnivore conservation across geographies.

Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to global environmental change (i.e., climate and land use change) is essential to efficiently inform conservation and management strategies for authorities and managers. Here, we assessed the combined effect of future climate and land use change on the potential range shifts of the giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in Sichuan Province, China. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast range shifts of the giant pandas by the 2050s and 2070s under four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We also compared the differences in distributional changes of giant pandas among the five mountains in the study area. Our SDMs exhibited good model performance and were not overfitted, with a mean Boyce index of 0.960 ± 0.015 and a mean omission rate of 0.002 ± 0.003, and suggested that precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature, the proportion of forest cover, and total annual precipitation are the most important factors in shaping the current distribution pattern of the giant pandas. Our projections of future species distribution also suggested a range expansion under an optimistic greenhouse gas emission, while suggesting a range contraction under a pessimistic greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, we found that there is considerable variation in the projected range change patterns among the five mountains in the study area. Especially, the suitable habitat of the giant panda is predicted to increase under all scenarios in the Minshan mountains, while is predicted to decrease under all scenarios in Daxiangling and Liangshan mountains, indicating the vulnerability of the giant pandas at low latitudes. Our findings highlight the importance of an integrated approach that combines climate and land use change to predict the future species distribution and the need for a spatial explicit consideration of the projected range change patterns of target species for guiding conservation and management strategies.

habCluster: identifying the geographical boundary among intraspecific units using community detection algorithms in R

Conservation management for a species generally rests on intraspecific units, while identification of their geographic boundaries is necessary for the implementation. Intraspecific units can be discriminated using population genetic methods, yet an analytical approach is still lacking for detecting their geographic boundaries. Here, based on landscape connectivity, we present a raster-based geographical boundary delineation method, habCluster, using community detection algorithms. Community detection is a technique in graph theory used to identify clusters of highly connected nodes within a network. We assume that the habitat raster cells with better connections tend to form a continuous habitat patch than the others, thus making the range of an intraspecific unit. The method was tested on the gray wolf (Canis lupus) habitat in Europe and the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat in China. The habitat suitability index (HSI) maps for gray wolves and giant pandas were evaluated using species distribution models. Each cell in the HSI raster is treated as a node and directly connected with its eight neighbor cells. The edge weight between nodes is the reciprocal of the relative distance between the centers of the nodes weighted by the average of their HSI values. We implement habCluster using the R programming language with the inline C++ code to speed up the computing. We found that the boundaries of the clusters delineated using habCluster could serve as a good indicator of habitat patches. In the giant panda case, the clusters match generally well with nature reserves. habCluster can provide a spatial analysis basis for conservation management plans such as monitoring, translocation and reintroduction, and population structure research.

Landscape-scale giant panda conservation based on metapopulations within China's national park system

Historically, giant panda conservation in China has been compromised by disparate management of protected areas. It is thus crucial to address how giant panda populations can be managed cohesively on a landscape scale, an opportunity offered by China's newly established Giant Panda National Park. Here, we evaluated giant panda populations in a metapopulation context, based on range-wide data from the Fourth National Giant Panda Survey. We delineated metapopulations by geographic range, relative abundance, and relative density and assessed the extent of human disturbance each metapopulation faced. We found density-dependent and disturbance-influenced effects on habitat selection across metapopulations. We determined the main effects faced by each metapopulation regarding area sensitivity, population size, intraspecific competition, and disturbance. To enhance the landscape-scale conservation of giant pandas and various other wildlife across China's national park system, we propose that metapopulation management incorporates population status along with density-dependent and disturbance-related effects on habitat selection.

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of NDVI in China's Giant Panda National Park

Identifying the ecological evolution trends and vegetation driving mechanisms of giant panda national parks can help to improve the protection of giant panda habitats. Based on the research background of different geomorphological zoning, we selected the MODIS NDVI data from 2000 to 2020 to analyze the NDVI trends using a univariate linear model. A partial correlation analysis and multiple correlation analysis were used to reveal the influence of temperature and precipitation on NDVI trends. Fourteen factors related to meteorological factors, topographic factors, geological activities, and human activities were selected, and the Geographically Weighted Regression model was used to study the mechanisms driving NDVI change. The results were as follows: (1) The NDVI value of Giant Panda National Park has fluctuated and increased in the past 21 years, with an annual growth rate of 4.7%/yr. Affected by the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the NDVI value fluctuated greatly from 2008 to 2012, and reached its peak in 2018. (2) The NDVI in 94% of the study area improved, and the most significant improvement areas were mainly distributed in the northern and southern regions of Southwest Subalpine and Middle Mountain and the Xiaoxiangling area. Affected by the distribution of fault zones and their local activities, vegetation degradation was concentrated in the Dujiangyan-Anzhou area of Hengduan Mountain Alpine Canyon. (3) The Geographically Weighted Regression analysis showed that natural factors were dominant, with climate and elevation having a double-factor enhancement effect, the peak acceleration of ground motion and fault zone having a superimposed effect, and river density and slope having a double effect, all of which had a significant impact on the NDVI value of the surrounding area. To optimize the ecological security pattern of the Giant Panda National Park, we recommended strengthening the construction of ecological security projects through monitoring meteorological changes, preventing, and controlling geo-hazards, and optimizing the layout and intensity of human activities.

Have China's national forest reserves designated since 1990 conserved forests effectively?

China's forests were severely degraded by human activities during the latter half of the 20th century. Therefore, China enacted ambitious programs of natural forest protection and afforestation to protect and expand forests. Yet it is unclear how the programs, especially the designation of forest reserves, have affected forest cover and fragmentation. We evaluated the effectiveness of China's national forest reserves designated since 1990 in conserving forests, by analyzing four forest metrics (i.e., percentage forest cover, mean forest patch size, mean forest patch radius of gyration, and forest patch cohesion index) derived from a newly produced 30 m annual China land cover dataset from 1990 to 2019. We found that overall forest cover increased and fragmentation decreased from baseline years, when reserves were designated, to 2019 in both reserves and their surrounding areas, and only the increase in forest cover relative to baseline was significantly greater in reserves than in surrounding areas. The designation time of reserves under national protection had no considerable effect on changes in the four metrics, but for zonation, the core zone showed a significantly higher increase in forest patch cohesion index relative to baseline than the buffer and transition zones. Nevertheless, forest cover declined and fragmentation increased in highly forested reserves, suggesting destructive human activities and ineffective management. Thus, forest protection and regeneration programs were moderately successful. We recommend that there is significant improvement needed to ensure greater protection of existing forests and reduction of threats to promote effective management.

Spatio-temporal variation in potential habitats for rare and endangered plants and habitat conservation based on the maximum entropy model

Rare and endangered plants (REPs) act as key indicators for species habitat priorities, and can thus be critical in global biodiversity protection work. Human activities and climate change pose great threats to REPs, so protection should be a top priority. In this study, we used the maximum entropy model (Maxent) to identify current and future (2050) potential habitats of REPs in the Xishuangbanna tropical area of China. We compared potential habitats with existing protected areas (PAs) in gap analysis, and used a transfer matrix to quantify changes in potential habitats. By comparing the potential distribution obtained with existing land use and land cover, we analyzed the impact of human-dominated land use changes on potential habitats of REPs and identified the main habitat patch types of REPs. The results showed that the current potential habitat area of hotspots is 2989.85 km², which will be reduced to 247.93 km² by 2050, accounting for 15.60% and 1.29% of the total research area, respectively. Analysis of land use and land cover showed that rubber plantation was the human-dominated land use posing the greatest threat to potential habitats of REPs, occupying 23.40% and 21.62% of current and future potential habitats, respectively. Monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest was identified as the main habitat patch type for REPs in Xishuangbanna and occupied the highest proportion of potential habitat area. Gap analysis showed that only 35.85% of habitat hotspots are currently included in existing PAs and that this will decrease to 32.26% by 2050. This emphasizes the importance of protecting current and future potential habitats of REPs in a dynamic conservation approach that can adapt to changes in future climate and human activities.

A review of the impacts of four identified major human disturbances on the habitat and habitat use of wild giant pandas from 2015 to 2020

Human disturbance poses a serious threat to the survival of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), but few systematic and specialized reviews on the impacts of human disturbance on pandas and their habitats have been published. After the fourth giant panda survey (2011-2014), some new studies and important findings have emerged. To update the understanding of the impacts of human disturbance, research on the impacts of major human disturbances on the habitat and habitat use of wild giant pandas from 2015 to 2020 was reviewed based on 33 publications (including three books and 30 articles). The major human disturbances in panda habitat included livestock grazing, roads, herb collection, and logging. Livestock affects panda habitat by occupying, disturbing, and defecating in it, and the time and intensity of habitat use by horses are greater than the time and intensity at which pandas use their habitats. Roads affect nearby habitats by disturbing the vegetation and causing pollution, and the effect of roads extends far beyond the roads themselves and varies with road type. The impacts of logging on the forest structure and bamboo in panda habitat are long-term. Pandas avoid habitats disturbed by livestock grazing, roads, and logging. The impacts of herb collection are not known, because they have received little attention. Findings suggested a need for further research on human disturbance to giant pandas, focusing on comprehensive evaluations of the interactions between different disturbances.

Moving toward a Greener China: Is China’s National Park Pilot Program a Solution?

National parks have been adopted for over a century to enhance the protection of valued natural landscapes in countries worldwide. For decades, China has emphasized the importance of economic growth over ecological health to the detriment of its protected areas. After decades of environmental degradation, dramatic loss of biodiversity, and increasing pressure from the public to improve and protect natural landscapes, China’s central government recently proposed the establishment of a pilot national park system to address these issues. This study provides an overview of the development of selected conventional protected areas (CPAs) and the ten newly established pilot national parks (PNPs). A literature review was conducted to synthesize the significant findings from previous studies, and group workshops were conducted to integrate expert knowledge. A qualitative analysis was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the pilot national park system. The results of this study reveal that the PNP system could be a potential solution to the two outstanding issues facing CPAs, namely the economic prioritization over social and ecological considerations that causes massive ecological degradation, and the conflicting, overlapping, and inconsistent administrative and institutional structures that result in serious inefficiencies and conflicts.

Conservation: Guarding Panda Land

Protecting land to save biodiversity is a cornerstone of conservation. But how effective are protected areas? Two new studies on panda conservation reveal that protection is efficient and suggest ways for improving biodiversity protection.