Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for suspected choledocholithiasis: testing the current guidelines

Development and validation of a predictive model for choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

Gallstone-related conditions affect a significant portion of the population, with varying prevalence among different ethnic groups. Complications such as pancreatitis and cholangitis are associated with the presence of common bile duct (CBD) stones. Existing guidelines for diagnosing choledocholithiasis lack precision, leading to excessive use of invasive procedures like endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP).

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted at Hospital Central "Dr. Ignacio Morones Prieto," involving 374 patients in the development cohort and 154 patients in the validation cohort. Patients meeting inclusion criteria underwent biochemical testing and ultrasonography. A predictive scoring system was developed using logistic regression and validated in an independent cohort. Clinical and laboratory variables were collected, and model performance was assessed using receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The predictive model incorporated variables such as age, pancreatitis, cholangitis, bilirubin levels, and CBD stone presence on ultrasound. The model demonstrated an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 93.81% in the validation dataset. By adjusting the threshold defining high-risk probability to 40%, the model improved specificity and sensitivity compared to existing guidelines. Notably, the model reclassified patients, leading to a more accurate risk assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed algorithm accurately predicts choledocholithiasis non-invasively in patients with symptomatic gallstones. This tool has the potential to reduce reliance on costly or invasive procedures like magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography and ERCP, offering a more efficient and cost-effective approach to patient management. The user-friendly calculator developed in this study could streamline diagnostic procedures, particularly in resource-limited healthcare settings, ultimately improving patient care.

Endoscopic ultrasound avoids diagnostic ERCP among the ASGE high-risk group - Experience in an Asian population

BACKGROUND

A prediction system for common bile duct (CBD) stones was originally published by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) in 2010 and was last revised in 2019. We wanted to investigate its application in an Asian population, who have different etiologies of bile duct stone formation and accessibility to medical service compared to the West.

METHODS

This is a single center retrospective study. Patients who received endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for suspected CBD stones were collected from our endoscopic record system over a 10-year period. The accuracy of the revised ASGE criteria was estimated according to the results of EUS. A minimum follow-up of 6 months was required to detect false negative results.

RESULTS

142 patients were enrolled, 87 (61%) patients had CBD stones. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of the revised ASGE criteria for high-risk patients were 69%, 38%, 64%, 44%, and 57%. 36% of the ASGE-defined high-risk patients negative for CBD stones on EUS. The two significant predictors for CBD stone were CBD dilatation (adjusted OR 3.06, 95% C.I. 1.31-7.17, p = 0.010) and ascending cholangitis (adjusted OR 2.28, 95% C.I. 1.01-5.15, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSION

ASGE recommends that patients defined as high-risk for choledocholithiasis be considered for direct ERCP without prior need for confirmation imaging. However, our findings indicate a high rate (36%) of patients in that group negative for CBD stones on EUS. Hence, EUS is still be suggested first in selective high-risk patients so that diagnostic ERCP can be avoided in our Asian society.

Performance of European and American Societies of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Guidelines for Prediction of Choledocholithiasis in Patients with Acute Biliary Pancreatitis

Background and Objectives: Up to one-third of patients with acute biliary pancreatitis also present with choledocholithiasis. Guidelines from the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) and the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) for investigating suspected choledocholithiasis suggest endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in patients with high-likelihood (ESGE)/high-probability (ASGE) predictors and endoscopic ultrasound in those with intermediate-likelihood (ESGE)/intermediate-probability (ASGE) predictors. Although both guidelines are similar, they are not identical. Furthermore, these algorithms were mainly developed from cohorts of patients without pancreatitis and are therefore poorly validated in a subset of patients with acute pancreatitis. We aimed to assess the performance of the ESGE and ASGE algorithms for the prediction of choledocholithiasis in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of 86 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary referral centre in the year 2020 due to acute biliary pancreatitis. Results: Choledocholithiasis was confirmed in 29/86 (33.7%) of patients (13 with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and 16 with endoscopic ultrasound). All 10/10 (100%) ESGE high-likelihood and 14/19 (73.7%) ASGE high-probability patients had choledocholithiasis. Only 19/71 (26.8%) patients with ESGE intermediate likelihood and 15/67 (22.4%) with ASGE intermediate probability had choledocholithiasis. Only 8/13 (61.5%) patients with the ASGE high-probability predictor of dilated common bile duct plus bilirubin > 68.4 µmol/mL had choledocholithiasis. Since this predictor is not considered high likelihood by ESGE, this resulted in a superior specificity of the European compared to the American guideline (100% vs. 91.2%). Following the American instead of the European guidelines would have resulted in five unnecessary endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographies and five unnecessary endoscopic ultrasound examinations. Conclusions: This retrospective analysis suggests that the European guidelines may perform better than the American guidelines at predicting choledocholithiasis in the setting of acute pancreatitis. This was because dilated common bile duct plus bilirubin > 68.4 µmol/mL was not a reliable predictor for persistent bile duct stones.

Clinical Utility of Definitive Diagnostic Tests for Choledocholithiasis in Pediatric Patients with Mild Gallstone Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Gallstone pancreatitis was historically considered a risk factor for choledocholithiasis (CD). However, recent studies of adult patients evidenced a weak association between gallstone pancreatitis and CD. The aim of this study was to analyze this association in pediatric patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study on patients with mild gallstone pancreatitis who underwent any definitive testing for CD (MRCP, ERCP, IOC), managed between March 2010 and September 2022. Patients were classified according to the presence or absence of risk factors for CD (total bilirubin ≥2 mg/dl; common bile duct >6 mm on ultrasound; and/or CD on ultrasound). We evaluated the diagnosis of CD on definitive testing in both groups and analyzed the predictive capacity of the presence of risk factors.

RESULTS

Eighty-four patients were included in the final analysis. Seventy-nine percent were females. The median age was 13 (4-17) years. Forty-seven (55.9%) patients had one or more risk factors. The definitive testing confirmed 13 (15.5%) cases of CD, 12 (25.5%) in the group of patients with risk factors and 1 (2.7%) in those without risk factors. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the presence of associated risk factors were 92.3, 50.7, 25.5 and 97.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Pediatric patients with gallstone pancreatitis without associated risk factors have a very low incidence of CD. In these patients we suggest performing a laparoscopic cholecystectomy without intraoperative cholangiography or any other definitive test for CD.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, retrospective study.

Performance of the predictive criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy in the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis at a secondary care public hospital in the State of Nuevo León, Mexico

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Currently there is no ideal diagnostic/therapeutic approach for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. The primary aim of our study was to evaluate the performance of the criteria for predicting choledocholithiasis proposed by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) in 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted that included 352 patients seen at a secondary care public healthcare institution in Monterrey, Nuevo León, that treats an open population and does not have endoscopic ultrasound or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography at its disposal.

RESULTS

The most frequent predictor presented by the patients was abnormal liver function tests (90.63%), and with their use alone, sensitivity was higher than that of all the predictors analyzed (91.41%). In addition, the finding of common bile duct stones on ultrasound imaging was the only predictor independently associated with the confirmatory diagnosis of choledocholithiasis. Regarding the general performance of the 2019 criteria, the high-risk category had 68.75% sensitivity, 52.08% specificity, a positive predictive value of 79.28%, a negative predictive value of 38.46%, diagnostic accuracy of 64.20%, and a confirmatory diagnosis of choledocholithiasis in 79.28% of the patients of that risk category.

CONCLUSIONS

The study corroborated that the presence of choledocholithiasis could be predicted using the choledocholithiasis predictors and risk categories proposed by the ASGE, with acceptable accuracy, in accordance with the standards suggested by those same guidelines.

Suspected common bile duct stones: reduction of unnecessary ERCP by pre-procedural imaging and timing of ERCP

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the procedure of choice to remove sludge/stones from the common bile duct (CBD). In a small but clinically important proportion of patients with suspected choledocholithiasis ERCP is negative. This is undesirable because of ERCP associated morbidity. We aimed to map the diagnostic pathway leading up to ERCP and evaluate ERCP outcome.

METHODS

We established a prospective multicenter cohort of patients with suspected CBD stones. We assessed the determinants that were associated with CBD sludge or stone detection upon ERCP.

RESULTS

We established a cohort of 707 patients with suspected CBD sludge or stones (62% female, median age 59 years). ERCP was negative for CBD sludge or stones in 155 patients (22%). Patients with positive ERCPs frequently had pre-procedural endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) imaging (44% vs. 35%; P = 0.045). The likelihood of ERCP sludge and stones detection was higher when the time interval between EUS or MRCP and ERCP was less than 2 days (odds ratio 2.35; 95% CI 1.25-4.44; P = 0.008; number needed to harm 7.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Even in the current era of society guidelines and use of advanced imaging CBD sludge or stones are absent in one out of five ERCPs performed for suspected CBD stones. The proportion of unnecessary ERCPs is lower in case of pre-procedural EUS or MRCP. A shorter time interval between EUS or MRCP increases the yield of ERCP for suspected CBD stones and should, therefore, preferably be performed within 2 days before ERCP.

Validation of choledocholithiasis predictors from the "2019 ASGE Guideline for the role of endoscopy in the evaluation and management of choledocholithiasis."

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Identifying patients likely to have CDL is an important clinical dilemma because endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), carries a 5-7% risk of adverse events. The purpose of this study was to compare the diagnostic test performance of the 2010 and 2019 ASGE criteria used to help risk stratify patients with suspected CDL.

METHODS

Consecutive patients evaluated for possible CDL from 2013 to 2019 were identified from surgical, endoscopic, and radiologic databases at a single academic center. Inclusion criteria included all patients who underwent ERCP and/or cholecystectomy with intraoperative cholangiogram (IOC) for suspected CDL. We calculated the diagnostic test performance of criteria from both guidelines and compared their discrimination using the receiver operator curve. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to identify the strongest component predictors.

RESULTS

1098 patients [age 57.9 ± 19.0 years, 62.8% (690) F] were included. 66.3% (728) were found to have CDL on ERCP and/or IOC. When using the 2019 guidelines, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy are 65.8, 78.9, 86.3, 54.1, and 70.4%, respectively. Using the 2010 guidelines, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy are 50.5, 78.9, 82.5, 44.8, and 60.1%, respectively. The AUC for high-risk criteria using the 2019 guidelines [0.726 (0.695, 0.758)] was greater than for the 2010 guidelines [0.647 (0.614, 0.681)]. The key difference providing the increased discrimination was the inclusion of stones on any imaging modality, which increased the sensitivity to 55.0% from 29.1%. Not including CDL on imaging or cholangitis, a dilated CBD was the strongest individual predictor of CDL on multivariate analysis (OR 3.70, CI 2.80, 4.89).

CONCLUSION

Compared to 2010, the 2019 high-risk criterion improves diagnostic test performance, but still performs suboptimally. Less invasive tests, such as EUS or MRCP, should be considered in patients with suspected CDL prior to ERCP.

Evaluation of the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy 2019 and the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy guidelines' performances for choledocholithiasis prediction in clinically suspected patients: A retrospective cohort study

Background and Aim

The American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) and the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) have published guidelines for choledocholithiasis. However, the guidelines were formulated using data from a large number of patients with no to low risk of common bile duct (CBD) stones. This study aimed to assess the guidelines' predictive performance in a population with a high frequency of stones.

Methods

Data for three choledocholithiasis standard reference tests were retrospectively reviewed from January 2019 to June 2021. Clinical parameters were used to categorize patients into risk groups according to the guidelines, and then the guidelines' predictive abilities were calculated.

Results

Among 1185 patients, 521 were included. The stone prevalence was 61.0% (n = 318). Twelve (2.3%), 146 (28.0%), and 363 (69.7%) patients were classified into low‐, intermediate‐, and high‐risk groups according to the ASGE guidelines, and 30 (5.8%), 149 (28.6%), and 342 (65.6%) according to the ESGE guidelines. Focusing on the high‐risk group, the ASGE guidelines had a positive predictive value of 73.6 and a positive likelihood ratio of 1.78. The ESGE guidelines had a positive predictive value of 73.7 and positive likelihood ratio of 1.79. Both guidelines had equivalent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65–0.73) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.64–0.72), respectively.

Conclusion

In the high‐risk group, the guidelines increased the chance of detecting choledocholithiasis by approximately 10% (61.0% prevalence to 73.6 and 73.7% positive predictive value). However, statistically, the guidelines had marginal discriminative performance in a population with high stone prevalence.

Evaluating the accuracy of American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy guidelines in patients with acute gallstone pancreatitis with choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

Acute gallstone pancreatitis (AGP) is the most common cause of acute pancreatitis (AP) in the United States. Patients with AGP may also present with choledocholithiasis. In 2010, the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) suggested a management algorithm based on probability for choledocholithiasis, recommending additional imaging for patients at intermediate risk and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) for patients at high risk of choledocholithiasis. In 2019, the ASGE guidelines were updated using more specific criteria to categorize individuals at high risk for choledocholithiasis. Neither ASGE guideline has been studied in AGP to determine the probability of having choledocholithiasis.

AIM

To determine compliance with ASGE guidelines, assess outcomes, and compare 2019 vs 2010 ASGE criteria for suspected choledocholithiasis in AGP.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 882 patients admitted with AP to a single tertiary care center from 2008-2018. AP was diagnosed using revised Atlanta criteria and AGP was defined as the presence of gallstones on imaging or with cholestatic pattern of liver injury in the absence of another cause. Patients with chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic malignancy were excluded as were those who went directly to cholecystectomy prior to assessment for choledocholithiasis. Patients were assigned low, intermediate or high risk based on ASGE guidelines. Our primary outcomes of interest were the proportion of patients in the intermediate risk group undergoing magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) first and the proportion of patients in the high risk group undergoing ERCP directly without preceding imaging. Secondary outcomes of interest included outcome differences based on if guidelines were not adhered to. We then evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of 2019 in comparison to the 2010 ASGE criteria for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. We performed the t test or Wilcoxon rank sum test, as appropriate, to analyze if there were outcome differences based on if guidelines were not adhered to. Kappa coefficients were calculated to measure the degree of agreement between pairs of variables.

RESULTS

In this cohort, we identified 235 patients with AGP of which 79 patients were excluded as they went directly to surgery for cholecystectomy without prior MRCP or ERCP. Of the remaining 156 patients, 79 patients were categorized as intermediate risk and 77 patients were high risk for choledocholithiasis according to the 2010 ASGE guidelines. Among 79 intermediate risk patients, 54 (68%) underwent MRCP first whereas 25 patients (32%) went directly to ERCP. For the 54 patients with intermediate risk who had MRCP first, 36 patients had no choledocholithiasis while 18 patients had evidence of choledocholithiasis prompting ERCP. Of these patients, ERCP confirmed stone disease in 11 patients. Of the 25 intermediate risk patients who directly underwent ERCP, 18 patients had stone disease. One patient with a normal ERCP developed post ERCP pancreatitis. Patients undergoing MRCP in this group had a significantly longer length of stay (5.0 vs 4.0 d, P = 0.02). In the high risk group, 64 patients (83%) had ERCP without preceding imaging, of which, 53 patients had findings consistent with choledocholithiasis, of which 13 patients (17%) underwent MRCP before ERCP, all of which showed evidence of stone disease. Furthermore, all of these patients ultimately had an ERCP, of which 8 patients had evidence of stones and 5 had normal examination.

Our cohort also demonstrated that 58% of all 156 patients with AGP had confirmed choledocholithiasis (79% of the high risk group and 37% of the intermediate group when risk was assigned based on the 2010 ASGE guidelines). When the updated 2019 ASGE guidelines were applied instead of the original 2010 guidelines, there was moderate agreement between the 2010 and 2019 guidelines (kappa = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.34-0.58). Forty-two of 77 patients were still deemed to be high risk and 35 patients were downgraded to intermediate risk. Thirty-five patients who were originally assigned high risk were reclassified as intermediate risk. For these 35 patients, 26 patients had ERCP findings consistent with choledocholithiasis and 9 patients had a normal examination. Based on the 2019 criteria, 9/35 patients who were downgraded to intermediate risk had an unnecessary ERCP with normal findings (without a preceding MRCP).

CONCLUSION

Two-thirds in intermediate risk and 83% in high risk group followed ASGE guidelines for choledocholithiasis. One intermediate-group patient with normal ERCP had post-ERCP AP, highlighting the risk of unnecessary procedures.

Compliance to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography according to current guidelines and adverse outcomes of suspected choledocholithiasis in an acute care setting

INTRODUCTION

Common bile duct (CBD) stones are common among patients who underwent cholecystectomy. However, few studies have investigated the compliance with the guidelines for the prediction of choledochlithiasis (CL). Therefore, we aim to study the compliance with the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines for the identification of CL in a major hospital in Saudi Arabia's capital.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review on adult patients admitted to emergency department at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh with gallstones between January 2016 and January 2019. Our data collection includes demographics and level of suspicion based on Transabdominal Ultrasound, liver function, amylase, and lipase tests. We then determined the likelihood of CL based on ASGE guidelines in order to assess the adherence to ASGE guidelines, the procedure's outcomes and adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 826 patients who met the study's criteria: 384 (46.4%) were compliant, while 442 (53.6%) were non-compliant with ASGE guidelines. There was a significant association between compliance and the presence of stones on ERCP in high likelihood patients. 48 (21.3%) of total ERCP procedures among all the likelihoods had adverse outcomes. 13 (40.6%) of non-compliant ERCP performed in intermediate likelihood have experienced adverse outcomes. There was a significant association between having adverse outcomes and being non-complaint with ASGE guidelines.

CONCLUSION

Despite ASGE guidelines' recommendations, a third of high likelihood cases and the majority of intermediate likelihood cases were non-compliant. Additionally, the current guidelines for the intermediate group are somewhat vague, giving ample leeway for patients to be placed in the intermediate group, which might subject them to unnecessary interventions. To conclude, there was a great lack of compliance with ASGE guidelines that is significantly associated with adverse outcomes. Hence, reassessing the current guidelines and monitoring healthcare facilities' compliance with the updated guidelines is highly recommended.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of optimal diagnostic strategy for patients with symptomatic cholelithiasis with intermediate probability for choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

EUS, MRCP, and intraoperative cholangiogram (IOC) are the recommended diagnostic modalities for patients with intermediate probability for choledocholithiasis (IPC). The relative cost-effectiveness of these modalities in patients with cholelithiasis and IPC is understudied.

METHODS

We developed a decision tree for diagnosing IPC (base-case probability, 50%; range, 10%-70%); patients with a positive test were modeled to undergo therapeutic ERCP. The strategies tested were laparoscopic cholecystectomy with IOC (LC-IOC), MRCP, single-session EUS + ERCP, and separate-session EUS + ERCP. Costs and probabilities were extracted from the published literature. Effectiveness was assessed by assigning utility scores to health states, average proportion of true-positive diagnosis of IPC, and the mean length of stay (LOS) per strategy. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by extrapolating a net-monetary benefit (NMB) and average cost per true-positive diagnosis.

RESULTS

LC-IOC was the most cost-effective strategy to diagnose IPC (base-case probability of 50%) among patients with cholelithiasis in health state-based effectiveness analysis (NMB of $34,612), diagnostic test accuracy-based effectiveness analysis (average cost of $13,260 per true-positive diagnosis), and LOS-based effectiveness analysis (mean LOS of 4.13) compared with strategies 2 (MRCP), 3 (single-session EUS + ERCP), and 4 (separate-session EUS + ERCP). These findings were robust on deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with cholelithiasis with IPC, LC-IOC is a cost-effective approach that should limit preoperative testing and may shorten hospital LOS. Our findings may be used to design institutional and organizational management protocols.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the 2010 ASGE non-invasive predictors of choledocholithiasis and comparison to the 2019 ASGE predictors

In 2019, the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guideline on the endoscopic management of choledocholithiasis modified the individual predictors of choledocholithiasis proposed in the widely referenced 2010 guideline to improve predictive performance. Nevertheless, the primary literature, especially for the 2019 iteration, is limited. We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis to examine the diagnostic performance of the 2010, and where possible the 2019, predictors. PROSPERO protocol CRD42020194226. A comprehensive literature search from 2001 to 2020 was performed to identify studies on the diagnostic performance of any of the 2010 and 2019 ASGE choledocholithiasis predictors. Identified studies underwent keyword screening, abstract review, and full-text review. The primary outcomes included multivariate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for each criterion. Secondary outcomes were reported sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive value. A total of 20 studies met inclusion criteria. Based on reported ORs, of the 2010 guideline “very strong” predictors, ultrasound with stone had the strongest performance. Of the “strong” predictors, CBD > 6 mm demonstrated the strongest performance. “Moderate” predictors had inconsistent and/or weak performance; moreover, all studies reported gallstone pancreatitis as non-predictive of choledocholithiasis. Only one study examined the new predictor (bilirubin > 4 mg/dL and CBD > 6 mm) proposed in the 2019 guideline. Based on this review, aside from CBD stone on ultrasound, there is discordance between the proposed strength of 2010 choledocholithiasis predictors and their published diagnostic performance. The 2019 guideline appears to do away with the weakest 2010 predictors.

Role of EUS at high risk for choledocholithiasis without severe cholangitis and visible stone on cross-sectional imaging: A multicenter randomized clinical trial

Background and Objectives:

The prevalence of choledocholithiasis in the high-risk group of choledocholithiasis has been reported to be slightly more than 50% when there is no definite cholangitis. Replacement of diagnostic endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC) with an EUS-first approach may be beneficial in these patients.

Materials and Methods:

In this prospective, multicenter study, patients with dilated common bile duct and serum total bilirubin levels of 1.8–4 mg/dL were randomly allocated to undergo either EUS first, followed by subsequent ERC if necessary (EUS group) or ERC only (ERC group). The primary endpoint was the incidence of negative outcomes associated with a false-negative diagnosis of the choledocholithiasis or the endoscopic procedure. The secondary endpoints were the rate of diagnostic ERC and hospital stay length related to the endoscopic procedure.

Results:

Of 90 patients who were randomly assigned, the final analysis involved 42 in the EUS group and 44 in the ERC group. The negative outcomes were not significantly different between the EUS and ERC groups (2.4% vs. 6.8%; P = 0.62). The rate of diagnostic ERC was significantly lower in the EUS group (2.4% vs. 47.7%; P < 0.001). The hospital stay length related to the endoscopic procedure was significantly shorter in the EUS group (1.8 ± 1.0 vs. 2.5 ± 1.2 days; P = 0.001).

Conclusion:

In selected high-risk choledocholithiasis patients, an EUS-first strategy significantly decreased the rate of diagnostic ERC and hospital stay but did not achieve a significant reduction in negative endoscopic procedure outcomes.

Development of a risk score for choledocholithiasis in pediatric patients

PURPOSE

The prevalence of gallstones in children has increased over the last years. Choledocholithiasis (CD) is present in up to 30% of the cases. There is a scarcity of studies on the management of choledocholithiasis in children. The aim of this study was to develop a score that would allow predicting accurately the risk of CD in children with gallstones and reduce the number of non-therapeutic ERCP.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study in children with gallstones and suspected CD seen between January 2010 and December 2019. The main outcome was the presence of CD confirmed by at least one of the following diagnostic tests: magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), and/or intraoperative cholangiography (IOC). We developed a risk score based on the presence or absence of the following risk factors: acute biliary pancreatitis, ascending cholangitis, elevated liver function tests (AST, ALT, total bilirubin [TB, ≥ 2 mg/dl], conjugated bilirubin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, and alkaline phosphatase), CD on ultrasound (US; this was considered predictive but not confirmatory of CD), and dilation of the common bile duct (> 6 mm) by US. The score was divided into three different categories: low risk (no risk factors), intermediate risk (one risk factor present), high risk (≥ 2 risk factors present or ascending cholangitis). Given the main goal of reducing the number of diagnostic ERCPs, a very-high-risk subgroup (3 risk factors present or ascending cholangitis) was identified.

RESULTS

We reviewed 133 patients with gallstones and suspected CD. In 56 (42.1%) patients, the presence of CD was confirmed by one or more of the definitive diagnostic tests (MRCP, ERCP, and IOC). The following variables were found to be the strongest predictors of CD: ascending cholangitis, TB ≥ 2 mg/dl, common bile duct > 6 mm, and the presence of CD by US. The positive predictive value for CD was 7.5% in the low-risk group (OR 0.06, P = < 0.001); 22.9% in the intermediate-risk group (OR 0.31, P = 0.007); 77.6% in the high-risk group (OR 20.14, P = < 0.001); and 95.7% in very-high-risk subgroup (OR 49.18, P = < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The risk score proposed in this study predicts accurately the presence of CD in children with gallstones. It can serve as a helpful tool to triage the need for costly and complex studies in the workup of CD, particularly in centers with limited resources. Finally, due to its high specificity and positive predictive value (PPV), the use of the very-high-risk criteria would allow for an important decrease in the number of non-therapeutic ERCP.

A prospective multicenter analysis from the Pediatric ERCP Database Initiative: predictors of choledocholithiasis at ERCP in pediatric patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The management of suspected choledocholithiasis remains a challenge in pediatric endoscopy. Several recommendations are available for adult patients; however, it is unknown which pediatric patients are most likely to benefit from ERCP for evaluation of choledocholithiasis. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate adult-based criteria in the evaluation of pediatric patients with choledocholithiasis. A secondary aim was to evaluate the role of conjugated (or direct) bilirubin to improve the sensitivity of detecting choledocholithiasis.

METHODS

This was a prospective multicenter study in pediatric patients as part of the Pediatric ERCP Database Initiative (PEDI) with additional post-hoc analysis of updated guidelines. Patients <19 years of age undergoing ERCP for suspected choledocholithiasis or gallstone pancreatitis were enrolled at participating sites.

RESULTS

Ninety-five patients were enrolled (69 with choledocholithiasis confirmed at ERCP and 26 with no stones at ERCP). Adverse event rates were similar in both groups. Specificity ranged from 27% to 91% using adult guidelines, but a sensitivity of only 20% to 69%. The were no significant differences between the 2 groups using preprocedure transabdominal US (P = 1.0). Significant differences between groups were identified using either the total or conjugated bilirubin (P = .02). There was also a significant difference between the stone and no-stone groups when conjugated bilirubin was dichotomized to >2 mg/dL (P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

Abdominal imaging and laboratory indices may be used to predict pediatric choledocholithiasis with varying sensitivity and specificity. Pediatric-specific guidelines may allow for improved stone prediction compared with existing adult recommendations.

Comparing diagnostic accuracy of current practice guidelines in predicting choledocholithiasis: outcomes from a large healthcare system comprising both academic and community settings

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) 2010 guidelines for suspected choledocholithiasis were recently updated by proposing more specific criteria for selection of high-risk patients to undergo direct ERCP while advocating the use of additional imaging studies for intermediate- and low-risk individuals. We aim to compare the performance and diagnostic accuracy of 2019 versus 2010 ASGE criteria for suspected choledocholithiasis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart review of a prospectively maintained database (2013-2019) of over 10,000 ERCPs performed by 70 gastroenterologists in our 14-hospital system. We randomly selected 744 ERCPs in which the primary indication was suspected choledocholithiasis. Patients with a history of cholecystectomy or prior sphincterotomy were excluded. The same patient cohort was assigned as low, intermediate, or high risk according to the 2010 and 2019 guideline criteria. Overall accuracy of both guidelines was compared against the presence of stones and/or sludge on ERCP.

RESULTS

Of 744 patients who underwent ERCP, 544 patients (73.1%) had definite stones during ERCP and 696 patients (93.5%) had stones and/or sludge during ERCP. When classified according to the 2019 guidelines, fewer patients were high risk (274/744, 36.8%) compared with 2010 guidelines (449/744, 60.4%; P < .001). Within the high-risk group per both guidelines, definitive stone was found during ERCP more frequently in the 2019 guideline cohort (226/274, 82.5%) compared with the 2010 guideline cohort (342/449, 76.2%; P < .001). In our patient cohort, overall specificity of the 2010 guideline was 46.5%, which improved to 76.0% as per 2019 guideline criteria (P < .001). However, no significant change was noted for either positive predictive value or negative predictive value between 2019 and 2010 guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2019 ASGE guidelines are more specific for detection of choledocholithiasis during ERCP when compared with the 2010 guidelines. However, a large number of patients are categorized as intermediate risk per 2019 guidelines and will require an additional confirmatory imaging study.

Intermediate Likelihood of Choledocholithiasis: Do All Need EUS or MRCP?

Background Recently updated guidelines for choledocholithiasis stratify suspected patients into high, intermediate, and low likelihood, with the aim to reduce risk of diagnostic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. This approach has increased proportion of patients in intermediate likelihood making it heterogenous. We aim to substratify intermediate group so that diagnostic tests (endoscopic ultrasound/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography) are judicially used.

Methods This is a single-center retrospective analysis of prospectively maintained data. We used subset of patients who met intermediate likelihood of American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) criteria from previously published data (PMID:32106321) as derivation cohort. Binominal logistic regression analysis was used to define independent predictors of choledocholithiasis. A composite score was derived by allotting 1 point for presence of each independent predictor. The diagnostic performance of a composite score of ≥ 1 was evaluated in validation cohort.

Results A total of 678 (mean age [standard deviation]: 47.0 [15.9] years; 48.1% men) and 162 (mean age 47.8 [14.8] years; 47.4% men) patients in ASGE intermediate-likelihood group were included as derivation cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Binominal logistic regression analysis showed that male gender (p = 0.024; odds ratio [OR] = 1.92), raised bilirubin (p = 0.001; OR = 2.40), and acute calculus cholecystitis (p = 0.010; OR = 2.04) were independent predictors for choledocholithiasis. A composite score was derived by allotting 1 point for presence of independent predictors Using ≥ 1 as cutoff, sensitivity and specificity for detection of choledocholithiasis were 80% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 68.2–88.9) and 36.2% (95% CI: 32.2–40.0), respectively, in derivation cohort. Applying composite score in independent validation cohort showed sensitivity and specificity of 73.3% (95% CI: 44.9–92.2) and 40.1% (95% CI: 30.1–48.5), respectively.

Conclusion Substratification of intermediate-likelihood group of ASGE criteria is feasible. It may be useful in deciding in whom confirmatory tests should be performed with priority and in whom watchful waiting may be sufficient.

Choledocholithiasis in acute calculous cholecystitis: guidelines and beyond

Background

Acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) is the most frequent complication of gallstones requiring cholecystectomy. These patients may have coexisting choledocholithiasis. We aimed to evaluate the role of current guidelines for choledocholithiasis in patients with ACC.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we included all patients diagnosed with ACC between December 2018 and May 2019. These patients were substratified according to the guidelines of the American and European Societies of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE and ESGE) as having high, intermediate, or low likelihood of choledocholithiasis, and the diagnostic performance was measured. Binomial logistic regression analysis was applied to ascertain independent risk factors for choledocholithiasis.

Results

A total of 173 patients with ACC, mean age (±standard deviation) 49.89±15.74 years and 60.1% male, were included. Sixty-three (36.4%) had confirmed choledocholithiasis. ASGE high likelihood criteria had sensitivity and specificity of 61.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.8-73.9) and 83.4% (95%CI 75.4-90.0) for predicting choledocholithiasis. ESGE high likelihood criteria had sensitivity and specificity of 49.2% (95%CI 36.4-62.1) and 87.3% (95%CI 79.6-92.9). On logistic regression analysis, an alkaline phosphatase level above the upper limit of normal (P=0.003; odds ratio [OR] 4.26, 95%CI 1.66-10.96) and a dilated common bile duct on ultrasound (P=0.001; OR 9.97, 95%CI 4.65-21.36) were independent positive predictors for choledocholithiasis, while acute biliary pancreatitis was an independent negative predictor (P=0.030; OR 0.36, 95%CI 0.14-0.91).

Conclusions

The performance of the ASGE and ESGE guidelines’ risk stratification criteria is inadequate in patients with ACC. We suggest the utilization of a separate predictive model for suspected choledocholithiasis in these patients.

Comparison of Endoscopy First and Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy First Strategies for Patients With Gallstone Disease and Intermediate Risk of Choledocholithiasis: Protocol for a Clinical Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

The optimal approach for patients with gallbladder stones and intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis remains undetermined. The use of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for diagnosis should be minimized as it carries considerable risk of postprocedural complications, and nowadays, less invasive and safer techniques are available.

Objective

This study compares the two management strategies of endoscopic ultrasound before laparoscopic cholecystectomy and intraoperative cholangiography for patients with symptomatic cholecystolithiasis and intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis.

Methods

This is a randomized, active-controlled, single-center clinical trial enrolling adult patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallbladder stones with intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis. The risk of choledocholithiasis is calculated using an original prognostic score (the Vilnius University Hospital Index). This index in a retrospective evaluation showed better prognostic performance than the score proposed by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy in 2010. A total of 106 participants will be included and randomized into two groups. Evaluation of bile ducts using endoscopic ultrasound and endoscopic retrograde cholangiography on demand will be performed before laparoscopic cholecystectomy for one arm (“endoscopy first”). Intraoperative cholangiography during laparoscopic cholecystectomy and postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography on demand will be performed in another arm (“cholecystectomy first”). Postoperative follow-up is 6 months. The primary endpoint is the length of hospital stay. The secondary endpoints are accuracy of the different management strategies, adverse events of the interventions, duct clearance and technical success of the interventions (intraoperative cholangiography, endoscopic ultrasound, and endoscopic retrograde cholangiography), and cost of treatment.

Results

The trial protocol was approved by the Vilnius Regional Biomedical Research Ethics Committee in December 2017. Enrollment of patients was started in January 2018. As of June 2020, 66 patients have been enrolled.

Conclusions

This trial is planned to determine the superior strategy for patients with intermediate risk of common bile duct stones and to define a simple and safe algorithm for managing choledocholithiasis.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03658863; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03658863.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/18837

Evaluating the Revised American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Guidelines for Common Bile Duct Stone Diagnosis

Background/Aims

The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) revised its guidelines for risk stratification of patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of the revision and to compare it to the previous guidelines.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 267 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. We identified high-risk patients according to the original and revised guidelines and examined the diagnostic accuracy of both guidelines. We measured the association between individual criteria and choledocholithiasis.

Results

Under the original guidelines, 165 (62%) patients met the criteria for high risk, of whom 79% had confirmed choledocholithiasis. The categorization had a sensitivity and specificity of 68% and 55%, respectively, for the detection of choledocholithiasis. Under the revised guidelines, 86 (32%) patients met the criteria for high risk, of whom 83% had choledocholithiasis. The revised categorization had a lower sensitivity and higher specificity of 37% and 80%, respectively. The positive predictive value of the high-risk categorization increased with the revision, reflecting a potential decrease in diagnostic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatograpies (ERCPs). Stone visualized on imaging had the greatest specificity for choledocholithiasis. Gallstone pancreatitis was not associated with the risk for choledocholithiasis.

Conclusions

The 2019 revision of the ASGE guidelines decreases the utilization of ERCP as a diagnostic modality and offers an improved risk stratification tool.

ASGE guideline on the role of endoscopy in the evaluation and management of choledocholithiasis

Each year choledocholithiasis results in biliary obstruction, cholangitis, and pancreatitis in a significant number of patients. The primary treatment, ERCP, is minimally invasive but associated with adverse events in 6% to 15%. This American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) Standard of Practice (SOP) Guideline provides evidence-based recommendations for the endoscopic evaluation and treatment of choledocholithiasis. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework was used to rigorously review and synthesize the contemporary literature regarding the following topics: EUS versus MRCP for diagnosis, the role of early ERCP in gallstone pancreatitis, endoscopic papillary dilation after sphincterotomy versus sphincterotomy alone for large bile duct stones, and impact of ERCP-guided intraductal therapy for large and difficult choledocholithiasis. Comprehensive systematic reviews were also performed to assess the following: same-admission cholecystectomy for gallstone pancreatitis, clinical predictors of choledocholithiasis, optimal timing of ERCP vis-à-vis cholecystectomy, management of Mirizzi syndrome and hepatolithiasis, and biliary stent therapy for choledocholithiasis. Core clinical questions were derived using an iterative process by the ASGE SOP Committee. This body developed all recommendations founded on the certainty of the evidence, balance of risks and harms, consideration of stakeholder preferences, resource utilization, and cost-effectiveness.

Dynamic liver test patterns do not predict bile duct stones

BACKGROUND

Numerous models have been developed to predict choledocholithiasis. Recent work has shown that these algorithms perform suboptimally. Identification of clinical predictors with high positive and negative predictive value would minimize adverse events associated with unnecessary diagnostic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) while limiting the use of expensive tests including magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for indeterminate cases.

METHODS

Consecutive unique inpatients who received their first ERCP at Los Angeles County Medical Center between January 2010 and November 2016 for suspected bile duct stones were reviewed. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with specific combinations of liver enzyme patterns, transabdominal ultrasound, and clinical features who had stones confirmed on ERCP. As a secondary outcome, we assessed the performance of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) risk stratification algorithm in our population.

RESULTS

Of the 604 included patients, bile duct stones were confirmed in 410 (67.9%). Detailed assessment of liver enzyme patterns alone and in combination with clinical features and imaging findings yielded no highly predictive algorithms. Additionally, the ASGE high-risk criterion had a positive predictive value of only 68% for stones. For the 236 patients for whom MRCP was performed, this imaging modality was shown to have highest predictive value for the presence of stones on ERCP.

CONCLUSION

Exhaustive exploration of various threshold values and dynamic patterns of liver enzymes combined with clinical features and basic imaging findings did not reveal an algorithm to accurately predict the presence of stones on ERCP. The ASGE risk stratification criteria were also insensitive in our population. Though desirable, there may be no "perfect" combination of clinical features that correlate with persistent bile duct stones. MRCP or EUS may be considered to avoid unnecessary ERCP and associated complications.

Current clinical algorithms for predicting common bile duct stones have only moderate accuracy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

A risk-stratified approach for selecting patients likely to harbor common bile duct (CBD) stones to proceed directly to endoscopic or surgical stone clearance, rather than undergo less invasive testing, has been proposed. We assessed the performance of three clinical algorithms used to predict CBD stones.

METHODS

All patients undergoing first-time endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in 2011-2012 as a result of suspected CBD stones were enrolled prospectively in a clinical database. Data such as imaging test findings and liver function tests (LFTs) were collected 48 h prior to and on the day of ERCP. Patients were stratified into different risk groups for harboring CBD stones according to three clinical algorithms using imaging and laboratory data. Findings on ERCP were used as gold standard. Performance characteristics of each algorithm were separately calculated for each time point of LFT assessment.

RESULTS

Overall, 186 patients were analyzed, 75% of whom presented CBD stones on ERCP. Proportion of patients categorized as high-risk for harboring CBD stones varied among the three algorithms (67% vs 73% vs 56%). Also, the algorithms showed only moderate, albeit comparable, accuracy for predicting the presence of CBD stones (0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-0.68 vs 0.68, 95% CI 0.63-0.67 vs 0.59, 95% CI 0.57-0.61). Similar results were obtained when performance characteristics were recalculated using LFT from 48 h prior to ERCP (data not shown).

CONCLUSION

Three diagnostic algorithms commonly used for predicting CBD stones have comparable but only moderate accuracy. Further research is warranted to improve risk stratification of patients with suspected CBD stones.

Accuracy of Imaging Modalities in Choledocholithiasis: A Real-Life Data

In this retrospective study of real-life data, we aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy in patients with choledocholithiasis of some current imaging modalities, including ultrasonography (US), computerized tomography (CT), magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). This study utilized a database of imaging records from 86 consecutive patients with ERCP-proven choledocholithiasis in a single-center outpatient clinic. Features of the stones found, namely number, size, localization, choledochal dilation and cholestasis, were determined using various imaging modalities and liver function tests (LFTs). Our study focused on a total of 86 patients (43 female; 43 male) who underwent the ERCP procedure. Hepatobiliary ultrasound was performed in 71 (82.6%); MRCP in 59 (68.6%); and CT in 13 (15.1%) patients. All 86 patients had choledocholithiasis: 59 (68.6%) with multiple stones and 21 (24.4%) with stones over 10 mm in diameter. Sensitivity for the presence of choledocholithiasis was 40.8% for US, 76.9% for CT, and 86.4% for MRCP, where ERCP was taken as the reference method. Even though US, CT, and MRCP are widely used as noninvasive imaging modalities for CL, in our real-life data their sensitivity for choledocholithiasis was lower than expected. MRCP is preferred when a nontherapeutic but only diagnostic evaluation is aimed for; however, while highly competent in establishing the level of choledochal dilation, it had a low yield in differentiating the localization, size, and number of the stone(s).

Performance of the Choledocholithiasis Diagnostic Score in Patients with Acute Cholecystitis

Introduction

The prevalence of choledocholithiasis among patients with acute cholecystitis is estimated to be between 9 and 16.5%. There are no validated algorithms to predict choledocholithiasis in this group of patients.

Aim

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the choledocholithiasis diagnostic score proposed by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, in patients with acute cholecystitis.

Material/Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study, covering a 4-year period at a secondary care hospital, was performed. All patients with an encoded diagnosis of acute cholecystitis and with at least one of the following procedures were included: endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), endoscopic ultrasound, magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography, and intraoperative cholangiography.

Results

Among 4,369 patients with the diagnosis of acute cholecystitis, 40 (0.92%) had clinical or sonographic suspicion of choledocholithiasis. Their mean age was 68.1 ± 15 years, and 22 (55%) were men. Thirty-one of the patients included (77.5%) had a high risk of choledocholithiasis, and 9 (22.5%) had an intermediate risk. In 16 (51.6%) of the 31 patients with a high risk, the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis was confirmed. In 2 (22.2%) of the 9 patients with an intermediate risk, the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis was also confirmed. The high risk score for choledocholithiasis had a positive predictive value of 52% and a sensitivity of 89%. The intermediate risk score for choledocholithiasis had a positive predictive value of 22% and a sensitivity of 11%.

Discussion and Conclusions

Suspicion of choledocholithiasis in patients with acute cholecystitis was a rare event (<1%). The sensitivity of the high risk score was approximately the same as found in published series with patients with suspected choledocholithiasis overall (86%), while the positive predictive value was substantially lower (52 vs. 79.8%). Therefore, in patients with acute cholecystitis and suspected choledocholithiasis, this score should not be used to screen for common bile duct stones, and a sensitive method should be used prior to ERCP.

Risk assessment of choledocholithiasis prior to laparoscopic cholecystectomy and its management options

Background

Accurate risk evaluation of choledocholithiasis prior to laparoscopic cholecystectomy is essential to determine optimal management strategy.

Objective

Our study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of separate predictors and Vilnius University Hospital Index (VUHI = A/30 + 0.4 × B; A = total bilirubin concentration (µmol/l), B = common bile duct (CBD) diameter (mm) measured by ultrasound) diagnosing choledocholithiasis and to assess different management strategies (cholecystectomy with intraoperative cholangiography and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)).

Methods

The retrospective study included 350 patients admitted to a tertiary care centre for laparoscopic cholecystectomy for cholecystolithiasis who were investigated for concomitant choledocholithiasis.

Results

Choledocholithiasis was diagnosed in 182 (76.2%) cases in the high-risk group (VUHI value ≥4.7) and 44 (39.6%) in the low, odds ratio is 4.86 (95% CI: 3.00-7.88). Its sensitivity was 80.5%, specificity 54.0%, accuracy 71.1%. Dilated CBD had the highest sensitivity (92.5%) of predictors.ERCP showed better diagnostic performance than intraoperative cholangiography. Complications of ERCP were more frequent for patients without stones. There was no significant difference of outcomes between the two management strategies.

Conclusion

The prognostic index has good diagnostic accuracy but dividing patients into two risk groups is insufficient. The suggested model allows determining an intermediate-risk group, which requires additional investigation. Both management approaches are appropriate.

Accuracy of ASGE high-risk criteria in evaluation of patients with suspected common bile duct stones

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

ERCP is recommended for patients considered high risk for choledocholithiasis after biochemical testing and abdominal US. Our aim was to determine whether the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines accurately select patients for whom the risk of ERCP is justified.

METHODS

Consecutive patients hospitalized with suspected choledocholithiasis at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital who received biochemical testing, abdominal US, and definitive testing for choledocholithiasis (MRCP, EUS, ERCP, intraoperative cholangiogram, and/or common bile duct [CBD] exploration) were identified. Patients with choledocholithiasis on abdominal US, with bilirubin levels >4 mg/dL (normal values <1.2 mg/dL), bilirubin levels ≥1.8 mg/dL plus a dilated CBD and/or clinical cholangitis were considered high risk per ASGE guidelines.

RESULTS

Of 2724 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis, 1171 (43%) met high-risk criteria. Definitive testing (MRCP in 2442 [90%], EUS in 67 [2%], ERCP in 659 [24%], intraoperative cholangiogram in 229 [8%], and CBD exploration in 447 [16%]) revealed choledocholithiasis in 1076 [40%] patients. The specificity of the ASGE high-risk criteria was 74% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72%-77%) and positive predictive value was 64% (95% CI, 61%-67%). Using a more restrictive criteria (choledocholithiasis on abdominal US, bilirubin >4 mg/dL plus dilated CBD) improved the specificity to 94% (95% CI, 93%-95%) and positive predictive value to 85% (95% CI, 82%-88%). Doubling or more of bilirubin to >4 mg/dL and ≥1.8 mg/dL at second testing had specificities of 98% (95% CI, 96%-99%) and 95% (95% CI, 93%-96%), with positive predictive values of 62% (95% CI, 48%-76%) and 54% (95% CI, 44%-65%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although ASGE high-risk criteria demonstrated >50% probability of the patient having choledocholithiasis, more than a third of the patients would receive diagnostic ERCPs. Criteria with choledocholithiasis on abdominal US and/or bilirubin levels >4 mg/dL plus a dilated CBD showed higher specificity and positive predictive value.

Management of suspected common bile duct stone: diagnostic yield of current guidelines

BACKGROUND

The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) has recently published a guideline for suspected CBDS with the intention of reducing unnecessary ERCP and thereby complications. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the ASGE guideline.

METHODS

Data of patients who underwent ERCP with suspected CBDS were analyzed retrospectively. Patients were classified into high, intermediate and low risk groups based on predictors that have been suggested by the ASGE. Very strong predictors of the presence of ductal stones included: CBDS on transabdominal ultrasonography (US), clinical ascending cholangitis or total bilirubin (TBIL) >4 mg/dL). Strong predictors included dilated CBD >6 mm on US with gallbladder in situ and TBIL level of 1.8-4.0 mg/dL whereas moderate predictor included abnormal liver biochemical test other than bilirubin, age more than 55 years and clinical findings of biliary pancreatitis.

RESULTS

Of 888 enrolled patients, 704 had CBDS demonstrated by ERCP and the remainder did not. All very strong and strong predictors were found to be significantly higher among patients who had CBDS. Detection of CBDS by ultrasonography and a dilated common biliary duct were observed to be independent risk factors associated with the existence of CBDS. The high risk group had a high (86.7%) positive predictive value (PPV), however, sensitivity and specificity were observed to be moderate (67.8% and 60.3% respectively). PPV was 67.9% in the intermediate risk group and the sensitivity and specificity were very low (31.9% and 42.3%).

DISCUSSION

The probability of CBDS was observed to be high in the intermediate and high risk groups. However due to low sensitivity and specificity values, the ASGE guideline needs additional or different predictors.

Accuracy of ASGE criteria for the prediction of choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Few studies have validated the performance of guidelines for the prediction of choledocholithiasis (CL). Our objective was to prospectively assess the accuracy of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines for the identification of CL.

METHODS

A two-year prospective evaluation of patients with suspected CL was performed. We evaluated the ASGE guidelines and its component variables in predicting CL.

RESULTS

A total of 256 patients with suspected CL were analyzed. Of the 208 patients with high-probability criteria for CL, 124 (59.6%) were found to have a stone/sludge at endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Among 48 patients with intermediate-probability criteria, 21 (43.8%) had a stone/sludge. The performance of ASGE high- and intermediate-probability criteria in our population had an accuracy of 59.0% (85.5% sensitivity, 24.3% specificity) and 41.0% (14.4% sensitivity, 75.6% specificity), respectively. The mean ERCP delay time was 6.1 days in the CL group and 6.4 days in the group without CL, p = 0.638. The presence of a common bile duct (CBD) > 6 mm (OR 2.21; 95% CI, 1.20-4.10), ascending cholangitis (OR 2.37; 95% CI, 1.01-5.55) and a CBD stone visualized on transabdominal US (OR 3.33; 95% CI, 1.48-7.52) were stronger predictors of CL. The occurrence of biliary pancreatitis was a strong protective factor for the presence of a retained CBD stone (OR 0.30; 95% CI, 0.17-0.55).

CONCLUSIONS

Irrespective of a patient's ASGE probability for CL, the application of current guidelines in our population led to unnecessary performance of ERCPs in nearly half of cases.

A scoring system for the prediction of choledocholithiasis: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Techniques for diagnosing choledocholithiasis pose significant morbidity and mortality risks.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a clinical scoring system for predicting choledocholithiasis.

DESIGN

Data from a prospectively maintained database of all patients with gallstones.

SETTING

Patients were admitted to the general surgery department of a military hospital.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled consecutive patients with symptomatic gallstones, biliary pancreatitis, obstructive jaundice, or cholangitis, who subsequently underwent biochemical testing and ultrasonography. A predictive model was developed from a scoring system using their imaging and laboratory data. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) or intraoperative cholangiography were used for confirmatory diagnoses. The predictive efficacy of the scoring system was validated using a retrospective cohort of 272 patients.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictive accuracy of the scoring system.

RESULTS

We enrolled 155 patients in the development group. The common bile duct diameter, alkaline phosphatase of >=200 IU, elevated bilirubin levels, alanine transaminase of >=220 IU, and male age of >=50 years were significantly associated with choledocholithiasis and were included in the scoring system. Ninety-six patients (35%) had scores of >=8 (high risk), 86 patients (32%) had scores of 4-7 (intermediate risk), and 27 patients (10%) had scores of 1-3 (low risk). In the validation cohort, the positive predictive value for a score of >=8 was 91.7%, and the scoring system had an area under the curve of 0.896.

CONCLUSION

Scores of >=8 were strongly correlated with choledocholithiasis in the developmental and validation groups, which indicates that our scoring system may be useful for predicting the need for therapeutic ERCP. However, prospective validation in a large multicenter cohort is needed to fully understand the benefits of the system.

LIMITATIONS

The retrospective validation cohort might have introduced selection and observational biases. The study may have been underpowered because of the sample size of the developmental cohort. The delay between admission and the time of ERCP theoretically may have increased the number of negative ERCP results, but our false negative rate for ERCP was consistent with the previously reported rates.

Predicting the likelihood of a persistent bile duct stone in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis: accuracy of existing guidelines and the impact of laboratory trends

BACKGROUND

Existing guidelines aim to stratify the likelihood of choledocholithiasis to guide the use of ERCP versus a lower-risk diagnostic study such as EUS, MRCP, or intraoperative cholangiography.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of existing guidelines in predicting choledocholithiasis and to determine whether trends in laboratory parameters improve diagnostic accuracy.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary-care hospital.

PATIENTS

Hospitalized patients presenting with suspected choledocholithiasis over a 6-year period.

INTERVENTIONS

Assessment of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines, its component variables, and laboratory trends in predicting choledocholithiasis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

The presence of choledocholithiasis confirmed by EUS, MRCP, or ERCP.

RESULTS

A total of 179 (35.9%) of the 498 eligible patients met ASGE high-probability criteria for choledocholithiasis on initial presentation. Of those, 99 patients (56.3%) had a stone/sludge on subsequent confirmatory test. Of patients not meeting high-probability criteria on presentation, 111 (34.8%) had a stone/sludge. The overall accuracy of the guidelines in detecting choledocholithiasis was 62.1% (47.4% sensitivity, 73% specificity) based on data available at presentation. The accuracy was unchanged when incorporating the second set of liver chemistries obtained after admission (63.2%), suggesting that laboratory trends do not improve performance.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective study, inconsistent timing of the second set of biochemical markers.

CONCLUSION

In our cohort of patients, existing choledocholithiasis guidelines lacked diagnostic accuracy, likely resulting in overuse of ERCP. Incorporation of laboratory trends did not improve performance. Additional research focused on risk stratification is necessary to meet the goal of eliminating unnecessary diagnostic ERCP.

Association of Endoscopic Sphincterotomy or Papillary Balloon Dilatation and Biliary Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) and endoscopic papillary balloon dilatation (EPBD) have become the main therapeutic procedures in the treatment of biliary and pancreas disease. The risk of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is not well investigated among post-EST/EPBD patients with benign diseases, particularly in Asia population. A retrospective nationwide cohort study using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (from January 1, 1998 through December 31, 2010) was conducted. Among patients with history of biliary stone with cholangitis, there were 17,503 patients in the EST/EPBD cohort and 69,998 subjects in the comparison. The incidence rate ratio was calculated using the Poisson regression model. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for potential confounding factors, were used to assess the risk of developing CCA associated with endoscopic EST/EPBD. The cumulative incidences of CCA in the 2 cohorts were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analyses, and differences between the survival curves of the 2 cohorts were analyzed using a log-rank test. The overall incidence of CCA in the EST/EPBD cohort was higher than in the controls (1.36 vs 7.37 per 1000 person-years, IRR = 5.40, 95% CI = 5.15-5.67), with an adjusted HR of 4.41 (95% CI = 3.86-5.04). There were no CCA occurrences among patients receiving EST over the follow-up period 3 year after EST performed. The cumulative incidence of extrahepatic CCA seemed to be little growing in patients receiving EPBD. The cumulative incidence of intrahepatic CCA was also steady increasing in patients treated with EPBD and was more than patients receiving EST 10 years after EPBD by Kaplan-Meier analysis. In the population-based cohort study, EST is not associated with a long-term risk of intrahepatic and extrahepatic CCA. The risk of CCA for EPBD needs further investigation.