Radical technological breakthroughs in drugs and drug markets: The cases of cannabis and fentanyl

How to improve the surveillance of the Taliban ban's impact on European drug markets

In April 2023, the Taliban banned poppy cultivation and the trade of all narcotics. This caused a 95% reduction in opium production. Usually, that would be good news. But there is a substantial worry: synthetic opioids might fill the void left by heroin. This is concerning because these drugs have led to health emergencies in areas where they are prevalent. This paper highlights the limitations of the current drug surveillance system in Europe and proposes improvements. It argues that reliance on secondary data is insufficient. Instead, we need to interview a sentinel group of people who inject drugs and adjust city-level sentinel systems, such as wastewater analysis, to specifically track the spread of synthetic opioids. Without these proactive steps, we risk only noticing a transition from heroin to synthetic opioids after it has occurred, with its harmful impacts already in place.

Modeling cartel size to inform violence reduction in Mexico

Estimating stocks and flows is an innovative first step.

Futures-oriented drugs policy research: Events, trends, and speculating on what might become

One concern in the field of drugs policy is how to make research more futures-oriented. Tracing trends and events with the potential to alter drug futures are seen as ways of becoming more prepared. This challenge is made complex in fast evolving drug markets which entangle with shifting social and material relations at global scale. In this analysis, we argue that drugs policy research orientates to detection and discovery based on the recent past. This narrows future-oriented analyses to the predictable and probable, imagined as extensions of the immediate and local present. We call for a more speculative approach; one which extends beyond the proximal, and one which orientates to possibilities rather than probabilities. Drawing on ideas on speculation from science and technology and futures studies, we argue that speculative research holds potential for more radical alterations in drugs policy. We encourage research approaches which not only valorise knowing in relation to what might happen but which conduct experiments on what could be. Accordingly, we trace how speculative research makes a difference by altering the present through making deliberative interventions on alternative policy options, including policy scenarios which make a radical break with the present. We look specifically at the 'Big Event' and 'Mega Trend' as devices of speculative intervention in futures-oriented drugs policy research. We illustrate how the device of Mega Trend helps to trace as well as to speculate on some of the entangling elements affecting drug futures, including in relation to climate, environment, development, population, drug production, digitalisation, biotechnology, policy and discourse.