Comparison of three lymph node staging schemes for predicting the outcome in patients with small bowel adenocarcinoma: A population-based cohort and international multicentre cohort study

Prediction values of different lymph nodes staging systems for survival of children with Wilms tumor

Background

Wilms tumor is one of the most common pediatric kidney cancers with poor prognosis. This study aims to explore the predictive values of lymph nodes (LNs), positive lymph node density (LND) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) for the 5-year mortality of children with Wilms tumor.

Methods

The cohort study collected the data of 874 participants with Wilms tumor in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The univariate COX proportional risk model was used to explore the possible covariates. The univariate and multivariable COX proportional risk model were employed for exploring the correlations of LNs, LND, and LODDS with the 5-year mortality of Wilms tumor patients. The predictive values of LNs, LND, and LODDS for the 5-year mortality of children with Wilms tumor were evaluated via concordance and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

The follow-up time was 5 years, and 804 participants survived in the end. The results delineated that LND >0 [hazard ratio (HR) =1.92, 95% CI: 1.01-3.67] as well as LND ≥0.93 (HR =4.87, 95% CI: 2.42-9.81) were correlated with increased risk of 5-year mortality while LODDS ≥-0.34 (HR =4.09, 95% CI: 2.18-7.65) was linked with elevated risk of 5-year mortality. The concordance of LNs for predicting the 5-year mortality of Wilms tumor patients was 0.623 (95% CI: 0.566-0.681). The concordances of LND, and LODDS for predicting the 5-year mortality of Wilms tumor patients were 0.623 (95% CI: 0.566-0.681) and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.562-0.669).

Conclusions

The predictive value of LODDS for the 5-year mortality of children with Wilms tumor was similar with LNs and LND. The findings might provide a new tool for helping the clinicians identify those with poor prognosis, and timely treatments should be offered to these patients.

Assessing the clinical utility of tumor invasion proportion of lymph nodes for enhanced risk stratification in N1 colorectal cancer

N staging systems are paramount clinical features for colorectal cancer (CRC). In N1 stage (N1) CRC, patients present with a limited number of metastatic lymph nodes, yet their prognoses vary widely. The tumor invasion proportion of lymph nodes (TIPLN) has gained attention, but its prognostic value in N1 CRC remains unclear. We retrospectively analyzed 416 N1 CRC patients who underwent radical surgery from January 2014 to December 2018, reviewing 713 hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained slides to assess TIPLN. Overall survival was the primary outcome in our study. Using restricted cubic splines, we explored the relationship between TIPLN and prognosis, with Cox regression and subgroup analyses adjusting for potential confounders. We found that increased TIPLN was associated with an unfavorable prognosis. At a cut-off value of 50%, patients with high-TIPLN exhibiting poorer outcomes than their low-TIPLN counterparts (hazard ratio: 3.77, P < 0.001). Furthermore, high-TIPLN was confirmed as an independent risk factor for overall survival (hazard ratio: 3.12, P < 0.001) after adjusting for clinical confounders. Notably, TIPLN could also enhance risk stratification within the T and N stages, where patients with low-risk (T1-3 stage) and high-TIPLN demonstrated poorer overall survival compared to those with high-risk (T4 stage) and low-TIPLN (hazard ratio: 2.54, P = 0.021). In conclusion, TIPLN is a promising prognostic indicator for N1 CRC patients that complements traditional N staging system for a more comprehensive evaluation. Integrating TIPLN into the TNM staging system could enhance risk stratification and guide treatment decisions.

Different lymph node staging systems for predicting the prognosis of colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms

BACKGROUND

Colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are a rare malignancy that primarily arises from the diffuse distribution of neuroendocrine cells in the colon and rectum. Previous studies have pointed out that the status of lymph node may be used to predict the prognosis.

AIM

To investigate the predictive values of lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph node (PLN), and log odds of PLNs (LODDS) staging systems on the prognosis of colorectal NENs treated surgically, and compare their predictive values.

METHODS

This cohort study included 895 patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The endpoint was mortality of patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically. X-tile software was utilized to identify most suitable thresholds for categorizing the LNR, PLN, and LODDS. Participants were selected in a random manner to form training and testing sets. The prognosis of surgically treating colorectal NENs was examined using multivariate cox analysis to assess the associations of LNR, PLN, and LODDS with the prognosis of colorectal NENs. C-index was used for assessing the predictive effectiveness. We conducted a subgroup analysis to explore the different lymph node staging systems' predictive values.

RESULTS

After adjusting all confounding factors, PLN, LNR and LODDS staging systems were linked with mortality in patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically (P < 0.05). We found that LODDS staging had a higher prognostic value for patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically than PLN and LNR staging systems. Similar results were obtained in the different G staging subgroup analyses. Furthermore, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for LODDS staging system remained consistently higher than those of PLN or LNR, even at the 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-year follow-up periods.

CONCLUSION

LNR, PLN, and LODDS were found to significantly predict the prognosis of patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically.

Comparisons of different lymph node staging systems for predicting overall survival of node-positive patients with renal cell carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database

OBJECTIVES

To compare the prognostic values of three lymph node staging systems in renal cell carcinoma (RCC), including the number of positive lymph nodes (NPLN), lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS).

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

1904 patients with pathological N1 RCC, diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 and underwent nephrectomy combined with lymph node dissection, were identified from the SEER database.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome of this study was overall survival (OS). Restricted cubic spline functions and multivariable Cox regression analyses were employed to characterise the associations of OS with NPLN, LNR and LODDS, respectively.

RESULTS

Data of 1904 eligible RCC patients were extracted from the SEER database. The mortality risks of RCC patients increased with the increasing of NPLN, LNR and LODDS. NPLN (NPLN3 vs NPLN1, HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.43, p=0.001), LNR (LNR3 vs LNR1, HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.67, p<0.001; LNR2 vs LNR1, HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.50, p=0.002) and LODDS (LODDS3 vs LODDS1, HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.72, p<0.001; LODDS2 vs LODDS1, HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.53, p<0.001) were all independent prognostic factors of OS. The predictive abilities of LNR (Akaike information criterion, AIC: 19576.3, optimism-corrected C-index: 0.677) and LODDS (AIC: 19579.2, optimism-corrected C-index: 0.676) were comparable, superior to NPLN (AIC: 19603.7, optimism-corrected C-index: 0.673). In subgroup analyses, the LODDS classification could better stratify survival of RCC patients, in particular for those with the number of dissected lymph nodes <13 or NPLN≤2.

CONCLUSIONS

NPLN, LNR and LODDS were all independent predictors of OS in RCC. When compared with NPLN and LNR, LODDS had a better performance in survival prediction and risk stratification. The three metrics all had the potential to be integrated into future versions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging manual.

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

We aimed to explore factors associated with prognosis in patients with metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) as well as to develop and validate nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Relevant information of patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year OS and CSS were established with potential risk factors screened from multivariate cox regression analysis. The discrimination and accuracy of the nomograms were assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In total, 373 SBA patients with M1 category were enrolled. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, size and grade of primary tumor, primary tumor surgery, and chemotherapy were significant variables associated with OS and CSS. The C-index values of the nomogram for OS were 0.715 and 0.687 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. For CSS, it was 0.711 and 0.690, respectively. Through AUC, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration plots, the nomograms displayed satisfactory prognostic predicted ability and clinical application both in the OS and CSS. Our models could be served as a reliable tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with metastatic SBA, which are favorable in facilitating individualized survival predictions and clinical decision-making.

A Population-Based Study to Evaluate the Associations of Nodal Stage, Lymph Node Ratio and Log Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes with Survival in Patients with Small Bowel Adenocarcinoma

Purpose: This study aimed to determine the real-world prognostic significance of lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LOPLN) in patients with non-metastatic small bowel adenocarcinoma. Methods: Patients diagnosed with early-stage small bowel adenocarcinoma between January 2007 and December 2018 from a large Canadian province were identified. We calculated the LNR by dividing positive over total lymph nodes examined and the LOPLN as log ([positive lymph nodes + 0.5]/[negative lymph nodes + 0.5]). The LNR and LOPLN were categorized at cut-offs of 0.4 and −1.1, respectively. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed for each nodal stage, LNR and LOPLN, adjusting for measured confounding factors. Harrell’s C-index and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) were used to calculate the prognostic discriminatory abilities of the different models. Results: We identified 141 patients. The median age was 67 years and 54.6% were men. The 5-year overall survival rates for patients with stage I, II and III small bowel adenocarcinoma were 50.0%, 56.6% and 47.5%, respectively. The discriminatory ability was generally comparable for LOPLN, LNR and nodal stage in the prognostication of all patients. However, LOPLN had higher discriminatory ability among patients with at least one lymph node involvement (Harrell’s C-index, 0.75, 0.77 and 0.82, and AIC, 122.91, 119.68 and 110.69 for nodal stage, LNR and LOPLN, respectively). Conclusion: The LOPLN may provide better prognostic information when compared to LNR and nodal stage in specific patients.

Construction and validation of a prognostic model for stage IIIC endometrial cancer patients after surgery

BACKGROUND

To explore the most predictive lymph node (LN) scheme for stage IIIC endometrial cancer (EC) patients after hysterectomy and develop a scheme-based nomogram.

METHODS

Data from 2626 stage IIIC EC patients, diagnosed between 2010 and 2014, were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. The predictive ability of four LN schemes was assessed using C-index and Akaike information criterion (AIC). A nomogram based on the most predictive LN scheme was constructed and validated. The comparison of the predictive ability between nomogram and FIGO stage was conducted using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

FIGO stage (stage IIIC1/stage IIIC2) was not an independent risk factor for OS in stage IIIC EC patients (P = 0.672) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) had the best predictive ability (C-index: 0.742; AIC: 8228.95). A nomogram based on LODDS was constructed and validated, which had a decent C-index of 0.742 (0.723-0.762). The nomogram showed a better predictive ability than that of the FIGO staging system.

CONCLUSION

FIGO IIIC1/FIGO IIIC2 could not differentiate the prognosis for stage IIIC EC patients. We developed and validated a nomogram based on LODDS to predict OS for post-operative patients with stage IIIC EC.

Nomogram to predict overall survival based on the log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with endometrial carcinosarcoma after surgery

PURPOSE

Aims to compare the prognostic performance of the number of positive lymph nodes (PLNN), lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes (LODDS) and establish a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) rate for patients with endometrial carcinosarcoma (ECS).

METHODS

Patients were retrospectively obtained from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015. The prognostic value of PLNN, LNR and LODDS were assessed. A prediction model for OS was established based on univariate and multivariate analysis of clinical and demographic characteristics of ECS patients. The clinical practical usefulness of the prediction model was valued by decision curve analysis (DCA) through quantifying its net benefits.

RESULTS

The OS prediction accuracy of LODDS for ECS is better than that of PLNN and LNR. Five factors, age, tumor size, 2009 FIGO, LODDS and peritoneal cytology, were independent prognostic factors of OS. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.743 in the training cohort. The AUCs were 0.740, 0.682 and 0.660 for predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year OS, respectively. The calibration plots and DCA showed good clinical applicability of the nomogram, which is better than 2009 FIGO staging system. These results were verified in the validation cohort. A risk classification system was built that could classify ECS patients into three risk groups. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that OS in the different groups was accurately differentiated by the risk classification system and performed much better than FIGO 2009.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicated that LODDS was an independent prognostic indicator for ECS patients, with better predictive efficiency than PLNN and LNR. A novel prognostic nomogram for predicting the OS rate of ECS patients was established based on the population in the SEER database. Our nomogram based on LODDS has a more accurate and convenient value for predicting the OS of ECS patients than the FIGO staging system alone.

Prognostic implications of ENE and LODDS in relation to lymph node-positive colorectal cancer location

•

This is the first study on LODDS and ENE together. The current study showed that LODDS and ENE are liable prognostic parameters of CRC or CC.

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ENE is an independent influencing factor on the prognosis of both CRC and CC, and the prognostic impact of ENE was observed in both CRC and CC.

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The frequency of ENE increases from the proximal (right) to the distal (left) colon as well as the rectum.

Background

Extranodal extension (ENE) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) are associated with the aggressiveness of both colon and rectal cancers. The current study evaluated the clinicopathological significance and the prognostic impact of ENE and LODDS in the colon and rectal patients independently.

Methods

The clinical and histological records of 389 colorectal cancer (CRC) patients who underwent curative surgery were reviewed.

Results

For the ENE system, 244 patients were in the ENE1 group and 145 in the ENE2 system. Compared with the ENE1 system, the patients included in the ENE2 system were prone to nerve invasion (P < 0.001) and vessel invasion (P < 0.001) with higher TNM (P = 0.009), higher T category (P = 0.003), higher N category (P < 0.001), advanced differentiation (P = 0.013), more number of positive lymph nodes (NPLN) (P < 0.001), more lymph node ratio (LNR) (P < 0.001), and a higher value of LODDS (P < 0.001). ENE was more frequent in patients with left and rectal than right cancer. For the LODDS system, 280 patients were in the LODDS1 group, and 109 in the LODDS2 group. Compared to the LODDS1 group, the patients included in the LODDS2 group were more prone to nerve invasion (P = 0.0351) and vessel invasion (P < 0.001) with a higher rate of N2 stage, less NDLN (P < 0.001), more NPLN (P < 0.001), more LNR (P < 0.001), and a higher value of ENE (P < 0.001). Based on the results in the univariable analysis, the N, NPLN, LNR, LODDS, and ENE were separately incorporated into five different Cox regression models combined with the same confounders. The multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that all the five staging systems were independent prognostic factors for overall survival.

Conclusion

The current study confirmed that the LODDS stage is an independent influence on the prognosis of both CRC and CC patients. ENE is an independent influencing factor on the prognosis of both CRC and CC patients, and the prognostic impact of extracapsular lymph node was observed in both CRC and CC. The frequency of ENE increases from the proximal (right) to the distal (left) colon as well as the rectum. Therefore, combining ENE and LODDS into the current TNM system to compensate for the inadequacy of pN staging needs further investigation.

Dynamic nomograms combining N classification with ratio-based nodal classifications to predict long-term survival for patients with lung adenocarcinoma after surgery: a SEER population-based study

BACKGROUND

The prognostic roles of three lymph node classifications, number of positive lymph nodes (NPLN), log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), and lymph node ratio (LNR) in lung adenocarcinoma are unclear. We aim to find the classification with the strongest predictive power and combine it with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th TNM stage to establish an optimal prognostic nomogram.

METHODS

25,005 patients with T1-4N0-2M0 lung adenocarcinoma after surgery between 2004 to 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were included. The study cohort was divided into training cohort (13,551 patients) and external validation cohort (11,454 patients) according to different geographic region. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed on the training cohort to evaluate the predictive performance of NPLN (Model 1), LODDS (Model 2), LNR (Model 3) or LODDS+LNR (Model 4) respectively for cancer-specific survival and overall survival. Likelihood-ratio χ2 test, Akaike Information Criterion, Harrell concordance index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the models. Nomograms were established according to the optimal models. They're put into internal validation using bootstrapping technique and external validation using calibration curves. Nomograms were compared with AJCC 8th TNM stage using decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

NPLN, LODDS and LNR were independent prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival and overall survival. LODDS+LNR (Model 4) demonstrated the highest Likelihood-ratio χ2 test, highest Harrell concordance index, and lowest Akaike Information Criterion, and IDI and NRI values suggested Model 4 had better prediction accuracy than other models. Internal and external validations showed that the nomograms combining TNM stage with LODDS+LNR were convincingly precise. Decision curve analysis suggested the nomograms performed better than AJCC 8th TNM stage in clinical practicability.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed online nomograms for cancer-specific survival and overall survival of lung adenocarcinoma patients after surgery, which may facilitate doctors to provide highly individualized therapy.

A Novel Nomogram Based on Log Odds of Metastatic Lymph Nodes to Predict Overall Survival in Patients With Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma After Surgery

Background

Various lymph node staging strategies were reported to be significantly correlated with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma(pCCA) prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate their predictive abilities and construct an optimal model predicting overall survival (OS).

Methods

Patients with pCCA were collected as the training cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Four models were constructed, involving four LNs staging strategies. The optimal model for predicting OS was evaluated by calculation of the concordance index (C-index) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), and validated by using the area under curve (AUC) and calibration curves. The clinical benefits of nomogram were evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). A Chinese cohort was collected to be an external validation cohort.

Results

There were 319 patients and 109 patients in the SEER database and Chinese cohort respectively. We developed an optimal model involving age, T stage, tumor size, LODDS, which showed better predictive accuracy than others. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.695, the time-dependent AUC exceeded 0.7 within 36 months which was significantly higher than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage. The calibration curves for survival probability showed the nomogram prediction had good uniformity of the practical survival. The DCA curves exhibited our nomogram with higher clinical utility compared with the AJCC stage and single LOODS.

Conclusions

LODDS is a strong independent prognostic factor, and the nomogram has a great ability to predict OS, which helps assist clinicians to conduct personalized clinical practice.

Comparison of Different Lymph Node Staging Schemes for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Node-Positive Endometrioid Endometrial Cancer Patients

Objective: To compare the prognostic predictive performance of six lymph node (LN) staging schemes: American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) N stage, number of retrieved lymph nodes (NRLN), number of positive lymph nodes (NPLN), number of negative lymph nodes (NNLN), lymph node ratio (LNR), and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) among node-positive endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC) patients. Methods: A total of 3,533 patients diagnosed with node-positive EEC between 2010 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively analyzed. We applied X-tile software to identify the optimal cutoff value for different staging schemes. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the relationships between different LN schemes and survival outcomes [disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS)]. Moreover, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Harrell concordance index (C-index) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of each scheme in both continuous and categorical patterns. Results: N stage (N1/N2) was not an independent prognostic factor for node-positive EEC patients based on multivariate analysis (DSS: p = 0.235; OS: p = 0.145). Multivariate model incorporating LNR demonstrated the most superior goodness of fit regardless of continuous or categorical pattern. Regarding discrimination power of the models, LNR outperformed other models in categorical pattern (OS: C-index = 0.735; DSS: C-index = 0.737); however, LODDS obtained the highest C-index in continuous pattern (OS: 0.736; DSS: 0.739). Conclusions: N stage (N1/N2) was unable to differentiate the prognosis for node-positive EEC patients in our study. However, LNR and LODDS schemes seemed to have a better predictive performance for these patients than other number-based LN schemes whether in DSS or OS, which revealed that LNR and LODDS should be more helpful in prognosis assessment for node-positive EEC patients than AJCC N stage.

The prognostic performance of the log odds of positive lymph nodes in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A population study of the US SEER database and a Chinese single-institution cohort

Background

The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic performance of the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) value compared with the pathological N stage and lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Method

In total 1144 patients diagnosed with ESCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and 930 patients from our validation cohort were eligible. Kaplan–Meier plotter and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were conducted to investigate the prognostic value of the N stage, LNR stage, and LODDS stage. The homogeneity, discriminatory ability, and monotonicity of these variables were evaluated using the linear trend χ² test, likelihood ratio χ² test, Akaike information criterion (AIC), and consistency index (C‐index) to determine the potential superiorities.

Results

The prognostic LODDS cutoff values were determined to be −1.49 and −0.55 (p < 0.001). Univariate analyses showed significant association among the N, LNR, and LODDS stages and overall survival of the patients (all p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses confirmed that the LODDS stage remained an independent prognostic indicator in both the SEER database and our validation cohort. Subgroup analyses identified the ability of LODDS stage to distinguish heterogeneous patients within various groups in both independent databases. Furthermore, the model with the highest C‐index and smallest AIC value was the one incorporating the LODDS stage among the three investigated nodal classifications of both cohorts.

Conclusion

The novel LODDS stage demonstrated better prognostic performance than the traditional N or LNR stages in ESCC patients. It can serve as an auxiliary factor to improve prognostic performance and can be applied to evaluate the lymph node status to increase the precision of staging and evaluation of survival.

Development and validation of a survival nomogram for patients with Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction based on real-world data

Background

The clinical staging systems for adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) are controversial. We aimed to propose a prognostic nomogram based on real-world data for predicting survival of Siewert type II/III AEG patients after surgery.

Methods

A total of 396 patients with Siewert type II/III AEG diagnosed and treated at the Center for Gastrointestinal Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, from June 2009 to June 2017 were enrolled. The original data of 29 variables were exported from the electronic medical records system. The nomogram was established based on multivariate Cox regression coefficients, and its performance was measured using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve.

Results

A nomogram was constructed based on nine variables. The C-index for overall survival (OS) prediction was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.80) in the training cohort, in the validation-1 cohort was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.86), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.80) in the validation-2 cohort. Time-dependent ROC curves and calibration curves in all three cohorts showed good prognostic predictive accuracy. We further proved the superiority of the nomogram in predictive accuracy for OS to pathological TNM (pTNM) staging system and other independent prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated the pTNM stage, grade of differentiation, positive lymph node, log odds of positive lymph node and organ invasion were prognostic factors with good discriminative ability.

Conclusion

The established nomogram demonstrated a more precise prognostic prediction for patients with Siewert type II/III AEG.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08249-x.

Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study

Background and Aims. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) of rectal cancer (RC) is associated with several factors. We aimed to build an efficient competing-risk nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) to predict RC survival. Methods. Medical records of 8754 patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, of 4895 patients from SEER during 2011–2014 and of 478 patients from an Eastern center as a development cohort, validation cohort, and test cohort, respectively. Univariate and multivariate competing-risk analyses were performed to build competing-risk nomogram for predicting the CSS of RC patients. Prediction efficacy was evaluated and compared with reference to the 8th TNM classification using the factor areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score. Results. The competing-risk nomogram was based on 6 variables: size, M stage, LODDS, T stage, grade, and age. The competing-risk nomogram showed a higher AUC value in predicting the 5-year death rate due to RC than the 8th TNM stage in the development cohort (0.81 vs. 0.76), validation cohort (0.85 vs. 0.82), and test cohort (0.71 vs. 0.66). The competing-risk nomogram also showed a higher Brier score in predicting the 5-year death rate due to RC than the 8th TNM stage in the development cohort (0.120 vs. 0.127), validation cohort (0.123 vs. 0.128), and test cohort (0.202 vs. 0.226). Conclusion. We developed and validated a competing-risk nomogram for RC death, which could provide the probability of survival averting competing risk to facilitate clinical decision-making.

Personalized four-category staging for predicting prognosis in patients with small bowel Adenocarcinoma: an international development and validation study

BACKGROUND

Log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) classification showed superiority over 8^th edition N staging in predicting survival of small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate the Tumor, LODDS, and Metastasis (TLM) staging of SBA.

METHODS

Totally 1789 SBA patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1988-2010, 437 patients from SEER database between 2011-2013 and 166 patients from multicenters were categorized into development, validation and test cohort, respectively. The TLM staging was developed in the development cohort using Ensemble Algorithm for Clustering Cancer Data (EACCD) method. C-index was used to assess the performance of the TLM staging in predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) and was compared with the traditional 8^th edition TNM staging.

FINDINGS

Four-category TLM staging designed for the development cohort showed higher discriminatory power than TNM staging in predicting CSS in the development cohort (0.682 vs. 0.650, P < 0.001), validation cohort (0.682 vs. 0.654, P = 0.022), and test cohort (0.659 vs. 0.611, P = 0.023), respectively. TLM staging continued to show its higher predictive efficacy than the 8^th TNM in TNM stage II/III patients or in patients with lymph node yield less than 8.

INTERPRETATION

TLM staging showed a better prognostic performance than the 8^th TNM staging especially TNM stage II/III or patients with lymph node yield less than 8 and therefore, could serve to complement the TNM staging in patients with SBA.

FUNDING

A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in the Acknowledgements section.

Validation of the prognostic value of various lymph node staging systems for cervical squamous cell carcinoma following radical surgery: a single-center analysis of 3,732 patients

Background

To investigate the prognostic value of six lymph nodes (LNs) staging systems: TNM pN stage, 2018 Federation International of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, number of positive LNs (PLN), number of negative LNs (NLN), metastatic LN ratio (LNR), and log odds of positive LNs (LODDS) in cervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) patients following radical surgery.

Methods

The records of 3,732 CSCC patients who underwent radical surgery between 2006 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. We divided variables into different groups by applying tree-based recursive partitioning. Survival curves were compared by the log-rank test, and prognostic factors were identified through Cox regression analysis. The six staging systems underwent assessment for their relative discriminative abilities by way of Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC).

Results

All of the six staging systems had a significant influence on patients’ progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), with univariate analysis showing all of the staging systems to have the significant prognostic ability in relation to PFS and OS (P<0.001 for each). Multivariate analysis demonstrated five of the staging methods to be independent prognostic factors, but that NLN classification was not. PLN was noted to have somewhat the best prognostic performance for both PFS (C-index: 0.634; AIC: 33,343.83) and OS (C-index: 0.675; AIC: 34,223.11).

Conclusions

The pN, 2018 FIGO stage, PLN, LNR, and LODDS appeared to predict better survival than the NLN in CSCC patients. Moreover, PLN appeared to be the most valuable and predictive LN staging system.

Prognostic Performance of Different Lymph Node Staging Systems in Patients With Small Bowel Neuroendocrine Tumors

Background: The prognostic significance of the lymph node (LN) classification for small bowel neuroendocrine tumors (SBNETs) remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to evaluate and compare the prognostic assessment of different LN staging systems. Methods: Patients with SBNETs were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The X-tile program was used to determine the cutoff value of the resected lymph nodes (RLNs), negative lymph nodes (NLNs), lymph node ratio (LNR), and the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS). Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank test. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the differences between different periods. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the prognostic value of different LN staging systems on cause-specific survival (CSS). The relative discriminative abilities of the different LN staging systems were assessed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Harrell consistency index (HCI). Result: A total of 3,680 patients were diagnosed with SBNETs between 1988 and 2014 from the SEER database. A significant difference over time (1988-1999 vs. 2000-2014) was seen in age (P <0.001), tumor differentiation (P <0.001), T stage (P <0.001), and RLN (P <0.001) subgroups. Multivariate Cox survival analysis identified that LN status stratified by the number of RLNs, NLNs, LNR, and LODDS all predicted CSS in patients with SBNETs (all P <0.05), whereas the number of positive lymph nodes (PLNs) failed (P = 0.452). When assessed using categorical variables, LODDS staging systems showed the best prognostic performance (HCI: 0.766, AIC: 7,575.154) in the whole population. Further analysis based on different RLNs after eliminating the missing data showed that when the RLNs are <12, the LODDS (HCI: 0.769, AIC: 1,088.731) maintained the best prognostic performance as well when the RLNs are ≥12 (HCI: 0.835, AIC: 825.692). Among patients with LNR scores of 0 or 1, there was a residual heterogeneity of outcomes that were better stratified and characterized by the LODDS. Conclusion: LODDS was a better predicator of survival when LN status was stratified as a categorical variable and should be considered when assessing the prognosis of patients with SBNETs to allow a more reliable means to stratify patient survival.