US deceased kidney transplantation: Estimated GFR, donor age and KDPI association with graft survival

Outcomes of kidneys used for transplantation: an analysis of survival and function

Introduction

Kidney transplant recipients expect to survive the procedure with sufficient renal function for reliable dialysis freedom.

Methods

Transplant outcomes (survival and estimated renal function) were assessed after live and deceased donor transplantation from the US national database. Outcomes were stratified by age (donor and recipient) and donor type.

Results

Aggregate recipient outcomes were better transplanting living vs deceased donated kidneys. However, when stratified by the one-year renal function (within KDIGO CKD stage stratifications), surviving recipients had clinically similar dialysis-freedom, irrespective of donor type or age. The major outcome differences for recipients of age-stratified live and deceased kidneys was 1) the increasing frequency of one-year graft failures and 2) the increasing likelihood of severely limited renal function (CKD 4/5) with advancing donor age. Over 30% of recipients of deceased kidneys >65 years had either one-year graft failure or severely limited renal function contrasted to less than 15% of recipients of live kidneys aged >65 years.

Conclusions

Evolving techniques to reduce adverse events after urgent vs elective procedures, plus improved transplant outcome predictability with increased-age deceased donor kidneys using advanced predictive analytics (using age-stratified live kidney transplantation outcomes as a relevant reference point) should facilitate similar kidney transplant outcomes, irrespective of donor type.

Validation of the kidney donor profile index (KDPI) for deceased donor kidney transplants in China

BACKGROUND

The kidney donor profile index (KDPI) evaluates kidney donor's age, height, weight, ethnicity, cause of death, high blood pressure, diabetes, exposure to hepatitis C and estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR). Kidneys with lower KDPI scores are expected to function longer that those with higher KPDI values. The applicability of KDPI score in Chinese kidney transplant donation has not yet been validated. This study evaluated the prognostic value of KDPI score in Chinese kidney transplant patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 184 deceased donors and 353 corresponding kidney transplant patients at the Organ Transplantation Department of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University between 2018 and 2021. The donors and recipients were stratified into four groups based on their KDPI score: KDPI 85-100, KDPI 60-84, KDPI 21-59, and KDPI 0-20.

RESULTS

As expected, the KDPI 85-100 group was associated with a poor short-term renal function (both postoperative creatinine and eGFR with P > 0.05), a higher incidence of delayed graft function (DGF; 25.5% for KDPI 85-100 group vs. 10.2% for KDPI 60-84 group vs. 5.4% for KDPI 21-59 group vs. 0 for KDPI 0-20 group, all P > 0.05). Furthermore, the same groups showed worse 3-year patient survival rate: 86.3% for KDPI 85-100 group vs. 97.01% for KDPI 60-84 group vs. 97.83% for KDPI 21-59 group vs. 100% for KDPI 0-20 group, all P > 0.05); and renal survival rate: 82.6% for KDPI 85-100 group vs. 92.99% KDPI 60-84 group vs.97.83% for KDPI 21-59 group vs. 100% for KDPI 0-20 group, all P > 0.05). Our analysis showed that the KDPI score had a good predictive value for the survival of kidney transplants and patients in our center (area under the curve: 0.728 and 0.76, P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

We recommend that the KDPI scoring system can be employed as an effective tool to predict kidney transplantation outcomes in deceased donation in China.

The UK kidney donor risk index poorly predicts long-term transplant survival in paediatric kidney transplant recipients

Background

The UK kidney offering scheme introduced a kidney donor risk index (UK-KDRI) to improve the utility of deceased-donor kidney allocations. The UK-KDRI was derived using adult donor and recipient data. We assessed this in a paediatric cohort from the UK transplant registry.

Methods

We performed Cox survival analysis on first kidney-only deceased brain-dead transplants in paediatric (<18 years) recipients from 2000-2014. The primary outcome was death-censored allograft survival >30 days post-transplant. The main study variable was UK-KDRI derived from seven donor risk-factors, categorised into four groups (D1-low risk, D2, D3 and D4-highest risk). Follow-up ended on 31-December-2021.

Results

319/908 patients experienced transplant loss with rejection as the main cause (55%). The majority of paediatric patients received donors from D1 donors (64%). There was an increase in D2-4 donors during the study period, whilst the level of HLA mismatching improved. The KDRI was not associated with allograft failure. In multi-variate analysis, increasing recipient age [adjusted HR and 95%CI: 1.05(1.03-1.08) per-year, p<0.001], recipient minority ethnic group [1.28(1.01-1.63), p<0.05), dialysis before transplant [1.38(1.04-1.81), p<0.005], donor height [0.99 (0.98-1.00) per centimetre, p<0.05] and level of HLA mismatch [Level 3: 1.92(1.19-3.11); Level 4: 2.40(1.26-4.58) versus Level 1, p<0.01] were associated with worse outcomes. Patients with Level 1 and 2 HLA mismatches (0 DR +0/1 B mismatch) had median graft survival >17 years regardless of UK-KDRI groups. Increasing donor age was marginally associated with worse allograft survival [1.01 (1.00-1.01) per year, p=0.05].

Summary

Adult donor risk scores were not associated with long-term allograft survival in paediatric patients. The level of HLA mismatch had the most profound effect on survival. Risk models based on adult data alone may not have the same validity for paediatric patients and therefore all age-groups should be included in future risk prediction models.

Predicting older-donor kidneys' post-transplant renal function using pre-transplant data

This paper provides a methodology for predicting post-transplant kidney function, that is, the 1-year post-transplant estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR-1) for each donor-candidate pair. We apply customized machine-learning algorithms to pre-transplant donor and recipient data to determine the probability of achieving an eGFR-1 of at least 30 ml/min. This threshold was chosen because there is insufficient survival benefit if the kidney fails to generate an eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min. For some donor-candidate pairs, the developed algorithm provides highly accurate predictions. For others, limitations of previous transplants' data results in noisier predictions. However, because the same kidney is offered to many candidates, we identify those pairs for whom the predictions are highly accurate. Out of 6977 discarded older-donor kidneys that were a match with at least one transplanted kidney, 5282 had one or more identified candidate, who were offered that kidney, did not accept any other offer, and would have had ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min, had the kidney been transplanted. We also show that transplants with ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min and that survive 1 year have higher 10-year death-censored graft survival probabilities than all older-donor transplants that survive 1 year (73.61% vs. 70.48%, respectively).

Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Solid Organ Transplant

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has drastically affected transplant services, but there is limited understanding of the discrepancy of COVID-19 effects on various regions of the world.

METHODS

We have explored the Global Observatory for Organ Donation and Transplantation data for assessing the transplant number changes between the calendar year 2019 (n = 157,301) and 2020 (129,681).

RESULTS

There was a disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on different areas of the world. Globally, there was a decline of 17.5%, in which deceased donation, kidney (20.9%), pancreas (16.2%), lung (12.7%), liver (11.3%), and heart (8%) transplant declined disproportionally in different regions of the world. The pandemic affected almost all geographic regions and nations, but China and the United States were mostly able to recover from the initial halt of the transplant practices by the pandemic so that there was a cumulative increase in transplant numbers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show that developing nations lagged behind, whereas developed nations have been able to recover their transplantation programs during the pandemic. Further policy making and preparedness is required to safeguard the most vulnerable areas of the world to minimize the impact of any future pandemic on transplantation practices.

Beyond Graft Survivl: A National Cohort Study Quantifying the Impact of Increasing Kidney Donor Profile Index on Recipient Outcomes 1 Year Post-transplantation

Background.

The reporting of a locally validated kidney donor profile index (KDPI) began in Australia in 2016. Across diverse populations, KDPI has demonstrated utility in predicting allograft survival and function. A metric that incorporates both elements may provide a more comprehensive picture of suboptimal recipient outcomes.

Methods.

A retrospective cohort study of adult kidney transplant recipients in Australia (January 2009 to December 2014) was conducted. Conventional recipient outcomes and a composite measure of suboptimal outcome (1-y allograft failure or estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <30 mL/min) were evaluated across KDPI intervals (KDPI quintiles and 5-point increments in the KDPI 81–100 cohort). The impact of increasing KDPI on allograft function (1-y eGFR) and a suboptimal outcome was explored using multivariable regression models, adjusting for potential confounding factors.

Results.

In 2923 donor kidneys eligible for analysis, median KDPI was 54 (interquartile range [IQR], 31–77), and Kidney Donor Risk Index was 1.39 (IQR, 1.03–1.67). The median 1-y eGFR was 52.74 mL/min (IQR, 40.79–66.41 mL/min). Compared with the first quintile reference group, progressive reductions in eGFR were observed with increasing KDPI and were maximal in the fifth quintile (adjusted β-coefficient: −27.43 mL/min; 95% confidence interval, –29.44 to –25.42; P < 0.001). A suboptimal outcome was observed in 359 recipients (12.3%). The adjusted odds for this outcome increased across quintiles from a baseline of odds ratio of 1.00 (first quintile) to odds ratio of 11.68 (95% confidence interval, 6.33-21.54, P < 0.001) in the fifth quintile cohort.

Conclusions.

Increases in donor KDPI were associated with higher probabilities of a suboptimal outcome and poorer baseline allograft function, particularly in the KDPI > 80 cohort. These findings may inform pretransplant discussions with potential recipients of high-KDPI allografts.

Artificial Intelligence-A Tool for Risk Assessment of Delayed-Graft Function in Kidney Transplant

Delayed-graft function (DGF) might be responsible for shorter graft survival. Therefore, a clinical tool predicting its occurrence is vital for the risk assessment of transplant outcomes. In a single-center study, we conducted data mining and machine learning experiments, resulting in DGF predictive models based on random forest classifiers (RF) and an artificial neural network called multi-layer perceptron (MLP). All designed models had four common input parameters, determining the best accuracy and discriminant ability: donor’s eGFR, recipient’s BMI, donor’s BMI, and recipient–donor weight difference. RF and MLP designs, using these parameters, achieved an accuracy of 84.38% and an area under curve (AUC) 0.84. The model additionally implementing a donor’s age, gender, and Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) accomplished an accuracy of 93.75% and an AUC of 0.91. The other configuration with the estimated post-transplant survival (EPTS) and the kidney donor risk profile (KDRI) achieved an accuracy of 93.75% and an AUC of 0.92. Using machine learning, we were able to assess the risk of DGF in recipients after kidney transplant from a deceased donor. Our solution is scalable and can be improved during subsequent transplants. Based on the new data, the models can achieve better outcomes.