Demographic noise and resilience in a semi-arid ecosystem model

The hidden order of Turing patterns in arid and semi-arid vegetation ecosystems

Vegetation Turing patterns play a critical role in the ecological functioning of arid and semi-arid ecosystems. However, the long-range spatial features of these patterns have been neglected compared to short-range features like patch shape and spatial wavelength. Drawing inspiration from hyperuniform structures in material science, we find that the arid and semi-arid vegetation Turing pattern exhibits long-range dispersion similar to hyperuniformity. As the degree of hyperuniformity of the vegetation Turing pattern increases, so does the water-use efficiency of the vegetation. This finding supports previous studies that suggest that Turing patterns represent a spatially optimized self-organization of ecosystems for water acquisition. The degree of hyperuniformity of Turing-type ecosystems exhibits significant critical slowing down near the tipping point, indicating that these ecosystems have non-negligible transient dynamical behavior. Reduced rainfall not only decreases the resilience of the steady state of the ecosystem but also slows down the rate of spatial optimization of water-use efficiency in long transient regimes. We propose that the degree of hyperuniformity indicates the spatial resilience of Turing-type ecosystems after strong, short-term disturbances. Spatially heterogeneous disturbances that reduce hyperuniformity lead to longer recovery times than spatially homogeneous disturbances that maintain hyperuniformity.

Understanding biological control with entomopathogenic fungi-Insights from a stochastic pest-pathogen model

In this study, an individual-based model is proposed to investigate the effect of demographic stochasticity on biological control using entomopathogenic fungi. The model is formulated as a continuous time Markov process, which is then decomposed into a deterministic dynamics using stochastic corrections and system size expansion. The stability and bifurcation analysis shows that the system dynamic is strongly affected by the contagion rate and the basic reproduction number. However, sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability shows that the persistence of a biological control agent depends to the proportion of spores collected from insect cadavers as well as their ability to be reactivated and infect insects. When considering the migration of each species within a set of patches, the dispersion relation shows a Hopf-damped Turing mode for a threshold contagion rate. A large size population led to a spatial and temporal resonant stochasticity and also induces an amplification effect on power spectrum density.

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress-Insights from a System Dynamics-Individual-Based Hybrid Model

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)-Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed.

Inferring resilience to fragmentation-induced changes in plant communities in a semi-arid Mediterranean ecosystem

Predicting the capacity of ecosystems to absorb impacts from disturbance events (resilience), including land-use intensification and landscape fragmentation, is challenging in the face of global change. Little is known about the impacts of fragmentation on ecosystem functioning from a multi-dimensional perspective (multiple traits). This study used 58 500-m linear transects to quantify changes in the functional composition and resilience of vascular plant communities in response to an increase in landscape fragmentation in 18 natural scrubland fragments embedded within a matrix of abandoned crop fields in Cabo de Gata-Níjar Natural Park, Almería, Spain. Changes in functional community composition were measured using functional diversity indices (functional richness and functional dispersion) that were based on 12 plant traits. Resilience was evaluated using the functional redundancy and response diversity from the perspective of plant dispersal, which is important, particularly, in fragmented landscapes. Scrubland fragmentation was measured using the Integral Index of Connectivity (IIC). The functional richness of the plant communities was higher in the most fragmented scrubland. Conversely, the functional dispersion (i.e., spread) of trait values among species in the functional trait space was lower at the most fragmented sites; consequently, the ecological tolerance of the vegetation to scrubland fragmentation decreased. Classifying the plant species into four functional groups indicated that fragmentation favoured an increase in functional redundancy in the ‘short basal annual forbs and perennial forbs’ group, most of which are species adapted to degraded soils. An assessment based on the traits associated with plant dispersal indicated that the resilience of ‘woody plants’, an important component in the Mediterranean scrubland, and habitat fragmentation were negatively correlated; however, the correlation was positive in the ‘short basal annual forbs and perennial forbs’ and the ‘grasses’ groups.