Complex dynamics of a predator–prey–parasite system: An interplay among infection rate, predator's reproductive gain and preference

Parasite-mediated predation determines infection in a complex predator-prey-parasite system

The interplay of host-parasite and predator-prey interactions is critical in ecological dynamics because both predators and parasites can regulate communities. But what is the prevalence of infected prey and predators when a parasite is transmitted through trophic interactions considering stochastic demographic changes? Here, we modelled and analysed a complex predator-prey-parasite system, where parasites are transmitted from prey to predators. We varied parasite virulence and infection probabilities to investigate how those evolutionary factors determine species' coexistence and populations' composition. Our results show that parasite species go extinct when the infection probabilities of either host are small and that success in infecting the final host is more critical for the survival of the parasite. While our stochastic simulations are consistent with deterministic predictions, stochasticity plays an important role in the border regions between coexistence and extinction. As expected, the proportion of infected individuals increases with the infection probabilities. Interestingly, the relative abundances of infected and uninfected individuals can have opposite orders in the intermediate and final host populations. This counterintuitive observation shows that the interplay of direct and indirect parasite effects is a common driver of the prevalence of infection in a complex system.

AN ECOEPIDEMIC SEASONALLY FORCED MODEL FOR THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FEAR, ADDITIONAL FOODS AND SELECTIVE PREDATION

In this paper, we study a predator–prey system in which the prey population is infected from a parasite and the growth of susceptible prey is suppressed due to fear of predation. We consider that the predators have the ability to distinguish between the susceptible and infected prey items, and they avoid the infected ones to reduce fitness cost. The predators are assumed to die naturally and also due to intraspecific competition. The proposed model is analyzed mathematically for the feasibility and stability of the system’s equilibria. We also discuss the existence of Hopf bifurcation by taking the feeding preference of predators as a bifurcation parameter. We perform global sensitivity analysis to identify model parameters having significant impact on the density of predator population in the ecosystem. Our simulation results show the stabilizing role of selective feeding of predators whereas fear factor and disease prevalence induce limit cycle oscillations. Feeding more the predators with additional foods bring stability in the system by evacuating the persistent oscillations. To model the situation more realistically, we consider that the parameters representing the cost of fear and the feeding preference of predators vary with time. For the seasonally forced system, conditions are obtained for which the system has at least one positive periodic solution; global attractivity of the positive periodic solution is also discussed. Our seasonally forced model demonstrates the appearance of a unique periodic solution, higher periodic solutions and complex bursting patterns.

Bistability in a tri-trophic food chain model: Basin stability perspective

The most important issue of concern in a food chain is the stability of species and their nature of persistence against system parameter changes. For understanding the stable dynamics and their response against parameter perturbation, the local stability analysis is an insufficient tool. A global stability analysis by the conventional techniques seems to supplement some of the shortcomings, however, it becomes more challenging for multistable ecosystems. Either of the techniques fails to provide a complete description of the complexity in dynamics that may evolve in the system, especially, when there is any transition between the stable states. A tri-trophic resource-consumer-predator food chain model has been revisited here that shows bistability and transition to monostability via a border collision that leads to a state of predator extinction. Although earlier studies have partially revealed the dynamics of such transitions, we would like to present additional and precise information by analyzing the system from the perspective of basin stability. By drawing different bifurcation diagrams against three important parameters, using different initial conditions, we identify the range of parameter values within which the stability of the states persists and changes to various complex dynamics. We emphasize the changes in the geometry of the basins of attraction and get a quantitative estimate of the nature of relative changes in the area of the basins (basin stability) during the transitions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the presence of a down-up control, in addition to the conventional bottom-up and top-down control phenomena in the food chain. The application of basin stability in food networks will go a long way for accurate analysis of their dynamics.

Behavioural mechanisms underlying parasite-mediated competition for refuges in a coral reef fish

Parasites have been increasingly recognized as participants in indirect ecological interactions, including those mediated by parasite-induced changes to host behaviour (trait-mediated indirect interactions or TMIIs). In most documented examples, host behaviours altered by parasites increase susceptibility to predation because the predator is also a host (host-manipulation). Here, we test for a TMII in which a parasitic copepod modifies the predator-prey interaction between a small goby host and several larger predatory fish. Gobies compete for crevices in the reef to avoid predation and goby mortality increases more rapidly with increasing refuge shortage for parasitized gobies than for those free of parasites. We found interactive effects of refuge shortage and parasitism on two behaviours we predicted might be associated with parasite-mediated competition for refuges. First, as refuge-shortage increases, the rate of aggression among gobies increases and parasitism intensifies this interaction. Second, goby proximity to refuges increases as refuges become scarce, but parasitism nullifies this increase. In combination, these parasite-induced changes in behaviour may explain why parasitized gobies are poor competitors for refuges. Because the parasite is not trophically transmitted via host manipulation, these altered behaviours in parasitized gobies are likely coincidental to infection.

Zooplankton selectivity and nutritional value of phytoplankton influences a rich variety of dynamics in a plankton population model

Mathematical modeling may be an excellent tool to analyze and explain complex biological phenomena. In this paper, we use a mathematical model to reveal various interesting dynamical features of phytoplankton-zooplankton interaction and attempt to explain the reason for contrasting dynamics shown by different laboratory and field experiments. Our study shows that the phytoplankton-zooplankton interaction in a pelagic system is very complex and the plankton dynamics, including the bloom phenomenon, strongly depends on the selective predation of zooplankton and the nutritional value of phytoplankton. The study supports the existing hypothesis that decoupling at the plant-animal interface may occur due to strong fish predation on zooplankton. In addition, we argue that decoupling of the food chain may also occur under low to intermediate nutrient inflow if zooplankton feeds on phytoplankton having lower nutritional value. It is also shown that nutrient enrichment can destabilize an otherwise stable system if zooplankton feeds on highly nutritious prey, but unable to destabilize the system if zooplankton feeds on low-nutritious prey. This may be one possible explanation to the longstanding question: Why do some experiments show the paradox of enrichment and others do not?

Wave of chaos in a spatial eco-epidemiological system: Generating realistic patterns of patchiness in rabbit-lynx dynamics

In the present paper, we propose and analyze an eco-epidemiological model with diffusion to study the dynamics of rabbit populations which are consumed by lynx populations. Existence, boundedness, stability and bifurcation analyses of solutions for the proposed rabbit-lynx model are performed. Results show that in the presence of diffusion the model has the potential of exhibiting Turing instability. Numerical results (finite difference and finite element methods) reveal the existence of the wave of chaos and this appears to be a dominant mode of disease dispersal. We also show the mechanism of spatiotemporal pattern formation resulting from the Hopf bifurcation analysis, which can be a potential candidate for understanding the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of eco-epidemiological systems. Implications of the asymptotic transmission rate on disease eradication among rabbit population which in turn enhances the survival of Iberian lynx are discussed.