Temperature as a factor affecting fluctuations and predictability of the abundance of lake bacterioplankton

Direct input of monitoring data into a mechanistic ecological model as a way to identify the phytoplankton growth-rate response to temperature variations

We present an approach (knowledge-and-data-driven, KDD, modeling) that allows us to get closer to understanding the processes that affect the dynamics of plankton communities. This approach, based on the use of time series obtained as a result of ecosystem monitoring, combines the key features of both the knowledge-driven modeling (mechanistic models) and data-driven (DD) modeling. Using a KDD model, we reveal the phytoplankton growth-rate fluctuations in the ecosystem of the Naroch Lakes and determine the degree of phase synchronization between fluctuations in the phytoplankton growth rate and temperature variations. More specifically, we estimate a numerical value of the phase locking index (PLI), which allows us to assess how temperature fluctuations affect the dynamics of phytoplankton growth rates. Since, within the framework of KDD modeling, we directly include the time series obtained as a result of field measurements in the model equations, the dynamics of the phytoplankton growth rate obtained from the KDD model reflect the behavior of the lake ecosystem as a whole, and PLI can be considered as a holistic parameter.

Phase synchronization of chlorophyll and total phosphorus oscillations as an indicator of the transformation of a lake ecosystem

The ecosystem of the Naroch Lakes (Belarus) includes three water bodies, Lake Batorino, Lake Myastro and Lake Naroch. These lakes have a common catchment area. At the end of the 80 s, the ecosystem of the Naroch Lakes underwent a transformation, during which the nutrient load on the catchment area decreased, and the concentration of phosphorus as a limiting factor in these water bodies decreased significantly. At the same time, the Naroch Lakes were exposed to zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha Pallas) invasion. In the mid-90 s, the biological and hydrochemical characteristics of the ecosystem of the Naroch Lakes stabilized. We show here that complex processes associated with the transformation of the lake ecosystem and affecting both trophic interactions in the Naroch Lakes and the influence of environmental factors on them can be represented using a single parameter, the phase-locking index, PLI. In this case, a statistically significant numerical value of PLI characterizes the phase synchronization of two processes, oscillations of the concentration of total phosphorus, TP, and oscillations of the concentration of chlorophyll, Chl. We show that the phase synchronization of these processes occurs only after the stabilization of the ecosystem of the Naroch Lakes. In the period preceding the transformation of the lake ecosystem, there was no synchronization. Numerical evaluation of PLI as a holistic parameter allows us to characterize the transformation of the lake ecosystem as a whole without resorting to study of complex interactions of various factors involved in this transformation.