Detection of temporal trends of α- and γ-chlordane in Lake Erie fish communities using dynamic linear modeling

Tracking POPs in Global Air from the First 10 Years of the GAPS Network (2005 to 2014)

The Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS) network, initiated in 2005 across 55 global sites, supports the global monitoring plan (GMP) of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) by providing information on POP concentrations in air on a global scale. These data inform assessments of the long-range transport potential of POPs and the effectiveness evaluation of chemical regulation efforts, by observing changes in concentrations over time. Currently, measurements spanning 5-10 sampling years are available for 40 sites from the GAPS Network. This study was the first time that POP concentrations in air were reported on a global scale for an extended time period and the first to evaluate worldwide trends with an internally consistent sample set. For consistency between sampling years, site- and sample specific sampling rates were calculated with a new, public online model, which accounts for the effects of wind speed variability. Concentrations for legacy POPs in air between 2005 and 2014 show different trends for different organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The POPs discussed in this study were chosen due to being the most frequently detected, with detection at the majority of sites. PCB, endosulfan, and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) concentrations in air are decreasing at most sites. The global trends reflect global sources and recycling of HCH, ongoing emissions from old stockpiles for PCBs, and recent use restrictions for endosulfan. These chlorinated OCPs continue to present exposure threat to humans and ecosystems worldwide. Concentrations of other OCPs, such as chlordanes, heptachlor and dieldrin, are steady and/or declining slowly at the majority of sites, reflecting a transition from primary to secondary sources (i.e., re-emission from reservoirs where these POPs have accumulated historically) which now control ambient air burdens.

Assessing mercury contamination patterns of fish communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes: A Bayesian perspective

We examine the spatio-temporal trends of mercury, a well-known global legacy contaminant, in eleven fish species across all of the Canadian Great Lakes. These particular fish species are selected based on their ecological, commercial, and recreational importance to the biodiversity and fishing industry of the Great Lakes. We present a two-pronged Bayesian methodological framework to rigorously assess mercury temporal trends across multiple fish species and locations. In the first part of our analysis, we develop dynamic linear models to delineate the total mercury levels and rates of change, while explicitly accounting for the covariance between fish length and mercury levels in fish tissues. We then use hierarchical modelling to evaluate the spatial variability of mercury contamination between nearshore and offshore locations, as well as to examine the hypothesis that invasive species have induced distinct shifts on fish mercury contamination trends. Our analysis suggests that the general pattern across the Great Lakes was that the elevated mercury concentrations during the 1970s had been subjected to a declining trend throughout the late 1980s/early 1990s, followed by a gradual stabilization after the late 1990s/early 2000s. The declining trend was more pronounced with top fish predators, whereas benthivorous fish species mainly underwent wax-and-wane cycles with a weaker evidence of a long-term declining trend. Historically contaminated regions, designated as Areas of Concern, and bays receiving riverine inputs are still characterized by mercury concentrations that can lead to consumption restrictions. Lake Erie displayed the lowest mercury levels across all the fish species examined. However, several species of commercial importance showed a reversing (increasing) trend in the 2000s, although their current levels do not pose any major concerns for consumption advisories. These recent trend reversals can be linked with systematic shifts in energy trophodynamics along with the food web alterations induced from the introduction of non-native species, and the potentially significant fluxes from the atmosphere.

A Bayesian assessment of polychlorinated biphenyl contamination of fish communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination has historically posed constraints on the recreational and commercial fishing industry in the Great Lakes. Empirical evidence suggests that PCB contamination represents a greater health risk from fish consumption than other legacy contaminants. The present study attempts a rigorous assessment of the spatio-temporal PCB trends in multiple species across the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes. We applied a Bayesian modelling framework, whereby we initially used dynamic linear models to delineate PCB levels and rates of change, while accounting for the role of fish length and lipid content as covariates. We then implemented Bayesian hierarchical modelling to evaluate the temporal PCB trends during the dreissenid pre- and post-invasion periods, as well as the variability among and within the water bodies of the Great Lakes system. Our analysis indicates that Lake Ontario is characterized by the highest PCB levels among nearly all of the fish species examined. Historically contaminated local areas, designated as Areas of Concern, and embayments receiving riverine inputs displayed higher concentrations within each of the water bodies examined. The general temporal trend across the Great Lakes was that the high PCB concentrations during the early 1970s followed a declining trajectory throughout the late 1980s/early 1990s, likely as a result of the reductions in industrial emissions and other management actions. Nonetheless, after the late 1990s/early 2000s, our analysis provided evidence of a decline in the rate at which PCB concentrations in fish were dropping, accompanied by a gradual establishment of species-specific, steady-state concentrations, around which there is considerable year-to-year variability. The overall trends indicate that reduced contaminant emissions have brought about distinct beneficial changes in fish PCB concentrations, but past historical contamination along with other external or internal stressors (e.g., invasive species, climate change) continue to modulate the current levels, thereby posing potential risks to humans through fish consumption.

Concentration and distribution of contaminants in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes (2008-2012)

Biomonitoring programs for persistent, bioaccumulative, and/or toxic chemicals of concern in fish tissues have been operated by the governments of Canada and the United States in the Great Lakes since the 1970's. The objectives of these programs are to assess concentrations of harmful chemicals in whole body top predator fish as an indicator of ecosystem health and to infer potential harm to fish and fish consuming wildlife in the Great Lakes Basin. Chemicals of interest are selected based upon national and binational commitments, risk assessment, and regulation, and include a wide range of compounds. This review summarizes all available data generated by Environment Canada and the United States Environmental Protection Agency for chemicals measured in whole body homogenates of Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and Walleye (Sander vitreus) for the time period spanning 2008 to 2012 from each of the five Great Lakes. The summary shows that concentrations of legacy compounds, such as, POPs listed in the Stockholm Convention and mercury continue to dominate the chemical burden of Great Lakes fish. This assessment, and others like it, can guide the creation of environmental quality targets where they are lacking, optimize chemical lists for monitoring, and prioritize chemicals of concern under agreements such as the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement and the Stockholm Convention.

A Bayesian assessment of the mercury and PCB temporal trends in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and walleye (Sander vitreus) from lake Ontario, Ontario, Canada

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and total mercury (THg) are two of the most prevalent contaminants, resulting in restrictive advisories on consuming fish from the Laurentian Great Lakes. The goal of this study is to examine the temporal trends of the two contaminants in walleye (Sander vitreus) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) for Lake Ontario. We employed Bayesian inference techniques to parameterize three different strategies of time series analysis: dynamic linear, exponential decay, and mixed-order modeling. Our analysis sheds light on the role of different covariates (length, lipid content) that can potentially hamper the detection of the actual temporal patterns of fish contaminants. Both PCBs and mercury demonstrate decreasing temporal trends in lake trout males and females. Decreasing PCB trends are evident in walleye, but the mean annual mercury levels are characterized by a "wax and wane" pattern, suggesting that specific fish species may not act as bio-indicators for all contaminants. This finding may be attributed to the shifts in energy trophodynamics along with the food web alterations induced from the introduction of non-native species, the intricate nature of the prey-predator interactions, the periodicities of climate factors, and the year-to-year variability of the potentially significant fluxes from atmosphere or sediments. Finally, a meaningful risk assessment exercise will be to elucidate the role of within-lake fish contaminant variability and evaluate the potential bias introduced when drawing inference from pooled datasets.