Modelling of carbon cycle and fire regime in an east Siberian larch forest

Simulating long-term wildfire impacts on boreal forest structure in Central Yakutia, Siberia, since the Last Glacial Maximum

Background

Wildfires are recognized as an important ecological component of larch-dominated boreal forests in eastern Siberia. However, long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in this unique environment are poorly understood. Recent paleoecological research suggests that intensifying fire regimes may induce millennial-scale shifts in forest structure and composition. This may, in turn, result in positive feedback on intensifying wildfires and permafrost degradation, apart from threatening human livelihoods. Most common fire-vegetation models do not explicitly include detailed individual-based tree population dynamics, but a focus on patterns of forest structure emerging from interactions among individual trees may provide a beneficial perspective on the impacts of changing fire regimes in eastern Siberia. To simulate these impacts on forest structure at millennial timescales, we apply the individual-based, spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI-FIRE, expanded with a new fire module. Satellite-based fire observations along with fieldwork data were used to inform the implementation of wildfire occurrence and adjust model parameters.

Results

Simulations of annual forest development and wildfire activity at a study site in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) since the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 20,000 years BP) highlight the variable impacts of fire regimes on forest structure throughout time. Modeled annual fire probability and subsequent burned area in the Holocene compare well with a local reconstruction of charcoal influx in lake sediments. Wildfires can be followed by different forest regeneration pathways, depending on fire frequency and intensity and the pre-fire forest conditions. We find that medium-intensity wildfires at fire return intervals of 50 years or more benefit the dominance of fire-resisting Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.), while stand-replacing fires tend to enable the establishment of evergreen conifers. Apart from post-fire mortality, wildfires modulate forest development mainly through competition effects and a reduction of the model's litter layer.

Conclusion

With its fine-scale population dynamics, LAVESI-FIRE can serve as a highly localized, spatially explicit tool to understand the long-term impacts of boreal wildfires on forest structure and to better constrain interpretations of paleoecological reconstructions of fire activity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42408-023-00238-8.

Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO₂ from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO₂ from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO₂ fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO₂ emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

The carbon balance in Southeast Asia is highly uncertain. Here, the authors show that land use changes and occurrence of strong El Niño control decadal shifts in the carbon balance of this region.

δ15N natural abundance may directly disclose perturbed soil when related to C:N ratio

RATIONALE

Natural abundance δ(15) N values in soil samples analysed by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) are often used to confirm a perturbation after it has been indicated by other parameters. We propose a concept of how δ(15)N values may a priori indicate a perturbation.

METHODS

We analysed the δ(15)N values and C:N ratios of 102 soil samples from five regions in northern Eurasia by using an elemental analyser coupled to an isotope ratio mass spectrometer.

RESULTS

Unperturbed samples ranged in δ(15)N values from -4.8 to 9.7 ‰ and in C:N ratio from 6.4 to 48.1. The δ(15)N values were linearly proportional to the inverse of the square root of the C:N ratio (R(2) = 0.79). At any particular C:N ratio, 94 % of the δ(15)N values of the unperturbed samples were within ±2.4 ‰, but 72 % of perturbed samples had values outside this range.

CONCLUSIONS

The δ(15)N natural abundance values, when related to the C:N ratios, may readily indicate perturbation of soil N cycling prior to other, more demanding investigations into related processes and extend the current use of IRMS in ecosystem research.

δ15N natural abundance in permafrost soil indicates impact of fire on nitrogen cycle

The impact of fire on the nitrogen (N) cycle of natural ecosystems is arguable. Here we report and interpret an observation from boreal ecosystems in the Lena River basin, Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Russian Federation. Different types of permafrost soil (0-30 cm depth) were sampled along transects (60-150 m length) from the forest edge towards the centre of four separate thermokarst depressions under grassland. The average values of δ(15)N were remarkably similar within three transects, but differed systematically between them. Three findings point towards fire being the cause of the observed pattern. First, the spatial extent of systematic differences in soil δ(15)N coincides with the extent of typical fire scars in the region. Second, soil enrichment in (15)N is larger in the proximity of settlements, where fire is generally more frequent than in more remote places. Third, there is a significant positive correlation between δ(15)N values and the ratio of black C to total N. These findings point towards fire having a marked impact on soil δ(15)N and, accordingly, on the N cycle of this cold and dry ecosystem.