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Dong H, Liu J, Zhao L, Liu C. Applying an ensemble of small models in predicting habitat suitability of invasive M. sallei along the southern coast of China. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2023; 197:115777. [PMID: 37976587 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Revised: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
A false mussel Mytilopsis sallei has caused serious ecological and economic losses after invading in China. In this research, we first assessed the niche differentiation between its native range and invasive range in China and then predicted the habitat suitability along the southern coast of China under present and future climatic circumstances. Distance to shore and water depth were the first two important factors in affecting the distribution of M. sallei, followed by minimum chlorophyll concentration and salinity. The niche of M. sallei shows significant expansion and unfilling. The ensemble of small models can account for few occurrences and presents high predictive performance. A general reduction and northward movement of suitable areas were found in the southern coast of China in the future. This study furnished significant insights regarding the areas under invasive risks, and provided valuable information for preventing the further invasion of M. sallei in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Dong
- Department of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Jie Liu
- Planning and Sea Island Department, Shandong Marine Forecast and Hazard Mitigation Service, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Linlin Zhao
- First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, Shandong, China.
| | - Changdong Liu
- Department of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China.
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Tan ALS, Cheng MCF, Giacoletti A, Chung JX, Liew J, Sarà G, Williams GA. Integrating mechanistic models and climate change projections to predict invasion of the mussel, Mytilopsis sallei, along the southern China coast. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 762:143097. [PMID: 33139009 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2020] [Revised: 09/27/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Species invasion is an important cause of global biodiversity decline and is often mediated by shifts in environmental conditions such as climate change. To investigate this relationship, a mechanistic Dynamic Energy Budget model (DEB) approach was used to predict how climate change may affect spread of the invasive mussel Mytilopsis sallei, by predicting variation in the total reproductive output of the mussel under different scenarios. To achieve this, the DEB model was forced with present-day satellite data of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), and SST under two warming RCP scenarios and decreasing current Chl-a levels, to predict future responses. Under both warming scenarios, the DEB model predicted the reproductive output of M. sallei would enhance range extension of the mussel, especially in regions south of the Yangtze River when future declines in Chl-a were reduced by less than 10%, whereas egg production was inhibited when Chl-a decreased by 20-30%. The decrease in SST in the Yangtze River may, however, be a natural barrier to the northward expansion of M. sallei, with colder temperatures resulting in a strong decrease in egg production. Although the invasion path of M. sallei may be inhibited northwards by the Yangtze River, larger geographic regions south of the Yangtze River run the risk of invasion, with subsequent negative impacts on aquaculture through competition for food with farmed bivalves and damaging aquaculture facilities. Using a DEB model approach to characterise the life history traits of M. sallei, therefore, revealed the importance of food availability and temperature on the reproductive output of this mussel and allowed evaluation of the invasion risk for specific regions. DEB is, therefore, a powerful predictive tool for risk management of already established invasive populations and to identify regions with a high potential invasion risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alicia Lee Sian Tan
- The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
| | - Martin Chun Fai Cheng
- The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
| | - Antonio Giacoletti
- Department of Earth and Marine Science, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy; Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn - Sicily Marine Centre, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (Complesso Roosevelt), 90142 Palermo, Italy
| | - Jing Xiang Chung
- Institut Oseanografi dan Sekitaran, Univerisiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia; Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Univeristi Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Juneng Liew
- Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, University Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Gianluca Sarà
- Department of Earth and Marine Science, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Gray A Williams
- The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong.
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Mugo R, Saitoh SI, Igarashi H, Toyoda T, Masuda S, Awaji T, Ishikawa Y. Identification of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) pelagic hotspots applying a satellite remote sensing-driven analysis of ecological niche factors: A short-term run. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0237742. [PMID: 32817669 PMCID: PMC7440647 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237742] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 07/31/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Skipjack tuna (SJT) pelagic hotspots in the western North Pacific (WNP) were modelled using fishery and satellite remotely sensed data with Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) models. Our objectives were to model and predict habitat hotspots for SJT and assess the monthly changes in sub-surface temperatures and mixed layer depths at fishing locations. SJT presence-only monthly resolved data, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, diffuse attenuation coefficient, sea surface heights and surface wind speed were used to construct ENFA models and generate habitat suitability indices using a short-term dataset from March-November 2004. The suitability indices were then predicted for July-October (2007 and 2008). Monthly aggregated polygons of areas fished by skipjack tuna pole and line vessels were also overlaid on the predicted habitat suitability maps. Distributions of sub-surface temperatures and mixed layer depths (MLD) at fishing locations were also examined. Our results showed good fit for ENFA models, as indicated by the absolute validation index, the contrast validation index and the continuous Boyce index. The predicted hotspots showed varying concurrences when compared with 25-degree polygons derived from fished areas. Northward shifts in SJT hotspots corresponded with declining MLDs from March to September. The MLDs were shallower in summer and deeper in autumn and winter months. The habitat hotspots modeled using ENFA were consistent with the known ecology and seasonal migration pattern of SJT. The findings of this work, derived from a short-term dataset, enable identification of SJT hotspots in the WNP, thus contributing valuable information for future research on SJT habitat prediction models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robinson Mugo
- Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi, Kenya
- * E-mail:
| | - Sei-Ichi Saitoh
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Hiromichi Igarashi
- Information Engineering Program, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan
| | - Takahiro Toyoda
- Oceanography and Geochemistry Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Yokosuka, Japan
| | - Shuhei Masuda
- Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan
| | | | - Yoichi Ishikawa
- Information Engineering Program, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan
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Sun K, Zhang J, Lin F, Ren JS, Zhao Y, Wu W, Liu Y. Evaluating the influences of integrated culture on pelagic ecosystem by a numerical approach: A case study of Sungo Bay, China. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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Abstract
Although recent studies suggest that climate change may substantially accelerate the rate of species loss in the biosphere, only a few studies have focused on the potential consequences of a spatial reorganization of biodiversity with global warming. Here, we show a pronounced latitudinal increase in phytoplanktonic and zooplanktonic biodiversity in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. We also show that this rise in biodiversity paralleled a decrease in the mean size of zooplanktonic copepods and that the reorganization of the planktonic ecosystem toward dominance by smaller organisms may influence the networks in which carbon flows, with negative effects on the downward biological carbon pump and demersal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Our study suggests that, contrary to the usual interpretation of increasing biodiversity being a positive emergent property promoting the stability/resilience of ecosystems, the parallel decrease in sizes of planktonic organisms could be viewed in the North Atlantic as reducing some of the services provided by marine ecosystems to humans.
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Werner FE, Ito SI, Megrey BA, Kishi MJ. Synthesis of the NEMURO model studies and future directions of marine ecosystem modeling. Ecol Modell 2007. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.08.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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