Modelling the skipjack tuna dynamics in the Indian Ocean with APECOSM-E – Part 2: Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis

Future ocean biomass losses may widen socioeconomic equity gaps

Future climate impacts and their consequences are increasingly being explored using multi-model ensembles that average across individual model projections. Here we develop a statistical framework that integrates projections from coupled ecosystem and earth-system models to evaluate significance and uncertainty in marine animal biomass changes over the 21^st century in relation to socioeconomic indicators at national to global scales. Significant biomass changes are projected in 40%–57% of the global ocean, with 68%–84% of these areas exhibiting declining trends under low and high emission scenarios, respectively. Given unabated emissions, maritime nations with poor socioeconomic statuses such as low nutrition, wealth, and ocean health will experience the greatest projected losses. These findings suggest that climate-driven biomass changes will widen existing equity gaps and disproportionally affect populations that contributed least to global CO₂ emissions. However, our analysis also suggests that such deleterious outcomes are largely preventable by achieving negative emissions (RCP 2.6).

Numerous marine ecosystem models are used to project animal biomass over time but integrating them can be challenging. Here the authors develop a test for statistical significance in multi-model ensemble trends, and thus relate future biomass trends to current patterns of ecological and socioeconomic status.

Towards the determination of Mytilus edulis food preferences using the dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory

The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is a commercially important species, with production based on both fisheries and aquaculture. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models have been extensively applied to study its energetics but such applications require a deep understanding of its nutrition, from filtration to assimilation. Being filter feeders, mussels show multiple responses to temporal fluctuations in their food and environment, raising questions that can be investigated by modeling. To provide a better insight into mussel–environment interactions, an experiment was conducted in one of the main French growing zones (Utah Beach, Normandy). Mussel growth was monitored monthly for 18 months, with a large number of environmental descriptors measured in parallel. Food proxies such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon and phytoplankton were also sampled, in addition to non-nutritious particles. High-frequency physical data recording (e.g., water temperature, immersion duration) completed the habitat description. Measures revealed an increase in dry flesh mass during the first year, followed by a high mass loss, which could not be completely explained by the DEB model using raw external signals. We propose two methods that reconstruct food from shell length and dry flesh mass variations. The former depends on the inversion of the growth equation while the latter is based on iterative simulations. Assemblages of food proxies are then related to reconstructed food input, with a special focus on plankton species. A characteristic contribution is attributed to these sources to estimate nutritional values for mussels. M. edulis shows no preference between most plankton life history traits. Selection is based on the size of the ingested particles, which is modified by the volume and social behavior of plankton species. This finding reveals the importance of diet diversity and both passive and active selections, and confirms the need to adjust DEB models to different populations and sites.

Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution

Climate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM-E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model - Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed.